Well my fellow Dolfans, for those that don’t know, I’m getting married at the end of December. This past weekend was my bachelor party. I somehow managed to stay awake for the entire Sunday Night game…barely. It was a downer to cap off what was a great weekend, but I always go back to something my dad has always jokingly said I need to do when rooting for the Dolphins. “A.T.P.” Accentuate the positive. Well, for most of us, I think that positive is the play of the offense on Sunday night. It looked, dare I say, good at times. It scored points at times.
However, it made to many penalties, had an untimely fumble, a rolled snap, bad blocking and Miami lost to fall to 4-4. So where do the Dolphins go from here?
Last year’s team was also 4-4 at the halfway point of the season. But, last year’s team was trending up having won three straight games over the Steelers, Bills and Jets and embarking on a west coast trip against the Chargers and Rams. If this year’s team were embarking on that same trip – right now – that’d be the death-knell of the season I think.
This year’s version of the Dolphins is 4-4, but trending down having lost two straight games and having played poorly against the Jets in a win prior to the two-game skid. This year’s team traded the one offensive player with NFL-wide cache in Jay Ajayi. I get why they did and support the move, but I’ve commented on that enough on that in the forums; maybe that’ll be a blog for the end of the season.
This year’s team is also facing an imposing back-stretch, at least on paper. Miami’s final 8 opponents have a combined record of 39-27. That also includes trips to Foxboro, Buffalo and Arrowhead, all likely in the cold. That’s daunting. That’s not even counting that next Monday Night Miami travels to Charlotte to face the Panthers, who own the league’s top total defense. They also happen to be 4th in points allowed, 2nd against the run, and 6th against the pass. That’s daunting.
I think this week’s game is essentially a “must win” for Miami if they’re going to be able to compete down the stretch in the AFC Wild-Card race that appears to be pretty wide open. For now. It may not be in a week or two given how some games fall. I think a win, on the road, against one of the best defenses the NFL has to offer could serve as a springboard much like the Pittsburgh game last year when Jay Ajayi broke out.
Miami’s getting some reinforcements in the form of Ted Larsen and T.J. McDonald. That’s a plus. The offense was also the most efficient it’s been all year a week ago. That’s a plus. And, to me, knowing your back’s against the wall is a plus. The defense is also considerably better than it was last year. They’re in the middle of the pack (17th) in terms of points allowed (thanks to the offense in the Baltimore game) and we’ve really only seen Matt Burke outfoxed once this year…it just happened to be on Sunday night, unfortunately. However, Miami’s total defense is top 10 (10th), as is the run defense (7th). Even Miami’s passing defense, which was mostly a sieve against the Raiders is in the top half of the league (14th). Those were numbers we dreamed of last year. A.T.P.
Further going with the A.T.P. model, I think it’s pretty clear Miami’s got a coach who is going to get this right. Yeah, you can say that some of his favorite guys shouldn’t be getting as many snaps as they are – Bushrod, Thomas – but he’s also figured out ways to use guys like Kenyan Drake, Damien Williams, and Jay Cutler more effectively without Ajayi. I think that’s clearly a message sent. And on top of that, Miami’s defense is mostly going to remain intact contract-wise going into this offseason. If the offense continues to takes some steps forward this year, which would be another positive, maybe that offensive overhaul becomes a fine-tuning with Ryan Tannehill coming back.
So, despite being a trending down 4-4 at the midway point, all is not lost. I think this Monday Night game is crucial, and I mean CRUCIAL, to Miami’s season longevity, but I think they may have some more momentum internally that what meets the eye of most fans. We’ll know a lot more early Tuesday morning.
The playoffs. Were going to get this thing righted. Even with a back up QB and all the injuries on the O line.
Agreed with most of the post… but I will say that I think we are trending up, not down. It might seem we are trending down when looking strictly at wins and losses, but Sunday was the best offense we've seen all season.
I think the defense will get back to its best form, especially now we get McDonald back. Larsen also comes back to strengthen the offense, and hopefully James isn't out for this game, or that his backup isn't much of a dropoff from him.
I can agree with that. I think I'd view the "big picture" as trending up, while the smaller, "short-term" picture is trending down. But you're 100% correct – there were positives from the offense on Sunday night.
Yes just from the eye ball how did it look test I agree it looks like its moving in the right direction. The penalties killed us otherwise we win that game IMO.
Penalties, Drake’s fumble and Pouncey’s bad snap were bad. Pouncey and Bushrod also had some terrible moments in the game, but that’s normal for those two.
half way to an interesting offseason
Looking at our remaining schedule it is going to be a tough end to the season. We’ve got four divisional games against he Patriots and Bills, anything can happen in those including upset victories. Both teams are beatable, but we’ll have to play our best complimentary football. As for the other games, I actually like our chances against the Buccaneers and Broncos (though in the Broncos case if their defense plays to an elite level that could swing things in their favour if they can do enough offensively), the Panthers are beatable if we play our best complimentary football, and the Chiefs are a dangerous team when that offense fires but if you can find a way to slow them, you can score on their defense.
For me, I think we’ll probably finish 8-8 because we have that hot and cold way this season. Some weeks we are on, other weeks not so much. Granted that win count can be boosted if we put everything together and go on a run, but it is going to take a mighty effort to get into the play offs from here on. We are not out of it by any means. I don’t know how the tiebreaker sits if we win this week and the Jags and Bills lose, but if it’s in our favour we will sit in a play off spot. So it’s going to be an interesting second half of the season which could see us either make that play off run or slip into mediocrity.
It's hard to say. Gotta see how the Drake/Williams show develops.
Halfway to 6-10 most likely.
8-8 Is a positive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
12-6
We're playing 18 games? Or are you including the post-season?
The way I see it, we've struggled on offense all year long…except for last week. Take away the fumble or a few of those highly questionable penalties, and we win the game outright. Take away the two ridiculous penalties that advanced the Raiders 75 yards in ten seconds in the fourth quarter, and the game was ours. There were a lot of ways to win that game and it was a "perfect storm" scenario that turned it into a loss.
Still, the offense looked really good- Cutler and Williams looked great. That's a huge positive for me since the D has been steady almost all season.
When it comes to Carolina, I couldn't help but think we saw all the same stuff heading into the Atlanta game- that was an almost unbeatable team. Yet our defense went into shutdown mode and Cutler carved out just enough to get the W…that's our identity this season and one we need to cling to. That's our plan for being Super Bowl hopefuls and we're 1-0 when we execute properly.
To answer the question, I don't think we're trending up or down. Our defense is still legit and we still have a very capable offense that hasn't showed us enough. Where will that leave us? I have no idea, I'll tell you in 8 weeks. I am expecting very competitive football from here on out though.
Yea – That on is funny & true!
I agree, but I want to add that Cutlers performance in the last game has shown to me he now has this offense figured out and can make it work. His first 5 games didn't look like that. I expect this offense will be viable for the rest of the season and may possibly improve. The defense looks like it is about to get better also. We are clearly getting stronger. I can't say how our opponents are trending, but I think we actually have an edge in the improvement area. With the Defense and Offense getting better, I expect Gase will be able to use more of his playbook and become more unpredictable. This will be something the other teams don't have on film yet. That should also be to our advantage. If the team can show the tenacity it did at the end of last year, I believe we will be in the playoffs – again!
Our defense has been getting worse. We were top 5 in points allowed early in the season, but are now tied for 16th after giving up 28, 40 and 27 points in our last 3 games. Our offense though is getting better as you say.
Carolina's defense has been getting better and is now 4th in points allowed, so the advantage is clearly with Carolina on the defensive side. Offensively, Cam Newton hasn't been that great and has any many good games as bad with the trend if anything being him getting worse. So not sure if either side has an edge in the improvement area.
This game will really come down to Cutler IMO. Carolina's defense may be top 5 in points allowed, but they're ranked 21st in passer rating allowed so that's a potential weakness if Cutler can manage to exploit it.
I think we will see the IDENTICAL game plan as last week…short throws to Williams, a few shots deep to Stills, Landry working the middle and letting our young RB go to work. I know we only ran 80 yards last week but we also had two bigger runs come back, plus we fumbled on a 3rd run of 10+ yards. So the skill is there, the talent is there….they just need to put it all together and give Drake some lanes.
On defense, nothing's going to be pretty when you lose 40-0. I know that happened and the stat sheet is legit, but it was a horrible field that some of the announcers called "dangerous" and even "unplayable." I'm not counting that game as being within the norm of what to expect…plus I'm a hardcore Dolphins fan and I want to pretend it didn't happen. So that's my excuse and I'm sticking to it!
If our best defense of the year (games 1-5) and our best offense of the year (games 1, 8) both manage to show up, then I think we can compete with just about anyone. That doesn't mean I think we will finish winning 8 out of 9 like last season, but I think we will have 8 close games from here on out. I'm just not bold enough to predict how many will be wins at this point….let's see the game Monday and discuss that then.
If we have 2 good offensive showings in a row against two fairly solid teams, then I'll be a lot more inclined to start dreaming of a playoff run.
Well.. Buffalo just got destroyed 47-10! And so much for their vaunted defense: 298 rushing yards given up to two RB's with 100+ yards and 6 rushing TD's given up (lol.. Brees didn't even throw a TD and they put up 47 points!).
So Buffalo is 5-4 now. Helps our playoff chances a bit.
We probably need to win Monday night, sweep the bills, and pull at least one of the pats games to have a shot at the playoffs. I never give up on the fins but its not gonna be easy. If they do make it they will deserve to be there.
The reason Buffalo losing was important is because what you describe is what we needed prior to them losing. After their loss we can split with both Buffalo and NE and get into a W/L tie for the last playoff spot. Conference record will then determine who gets in.
If we lose tomorrow though, then we do need to sweep the Bills and split with NE. Anyway, don't forget that Buffalo owns the longest current streak for missing the playoffs at 17 consecutive years LOL. They are experts at missing the playoffs so we'll see what happens. But yes you're right no matter what this will be tough.
I think Miami is pretty much in a "must win" game tomorrow. I realize they're still "alive" even if they drop to 4-5, but with the remaining schedule they have, I think they need to stack two wins in a row this week. And, even though Carolina is pretty good, I think the matchup for Miami is better than meets the eye.
Yeah there's a big difference between winning tomorrow vs. losing. Win and it looks like it's a race between just us and Buffalo. Lose and not only do we have to sweep Buffalo, we'll be competing with 3 teams (Buffalo, Ravens, Raiders) all of which have some advantage over us (Buffalo would have one extra win, and both Ravens and Raiders beat us). So in that sense yeah it's a "must-win".
The more interesting question is what happens IF we win. Might as well go through the key scenarios.
IF we win and we split with Buffalo, then it goes to conference record and Buffalo has a slight advantage over us because their two "easy" games are against the Colts and Chargers (two AFC teams), while ours are against the Bucs and Broncos (only one AFC team). For reference, they have a 3-2 conference record and play Miami and NE twice, @KC, @Chargers and vs Colts. We have a 3-3 conference record and play Buffalo and NE twice, @KC, vs Bucs and vs Broncos.
Assuming we do get a bit lucky and both teams end up with equal conference records (probably 6-6), then it goes to strength of victory. They're -12 right now while we're -63 having played one fewer game. So from here on out, we have to root not just for wins but also for big score differentials (or Buffalo suffering huge losses like today).
None of this is easy, but that's what it looks like it will take to make the playoffs IF we win tomorrow and IF we split with Buffalo. Of course we can just take care of business ourselves by sweeping Buffalo. Sweeping Buffalo is arguably the most important determinant of us making the playoffs, even if we lose tomorrow.
If we can’t sweep Buffalo we truly suck…that team is exposed..they do not match up with us anymore..it would be an indictment on coaching if we don’t beat them twice.
None of that sounds encouraging…which is why we need to get out there and win. Jax and Den are very beatable, KC is likely a loss. So if we're 7-5 with just NE and Buffalo (twice each) remaining, it's like you said….splitting both series gives us a decent shot. But if we lose to Carolina, then KC becomes a must win game or we have to sweep somebody.
Darn it, it's going to be rainy in the Carolinas tomorrow and I don't want to drive home late, but I might have to hop online in the morning and buy a few tickets to the game.
I love the trending concept. How glass is half something-y is that? We've lost the last two games. So right now we're 4-4 when we could have been 6-2. That to me is bad. Losing is bad. Winning is good. Let's try it together now. No matter how excellent ZYX on the team looks tonight, if we lose it will be _ _ _ it's three letters. Give it a try. Winning would be four letters _ _ _ _. I'm certain you can do it. Nothing matters more than W's and L's. Lets quit this "trending" nonsense.
Yes I was being optimistic.
Eh..I wouldnt go that far. Its a divisional game for us. If we get swept by Buffalo I agree…but I think its very likely we split with them to be honest.
Well not all of us are as black and white about our football as ….Munga want football win. Munga think football loss is bad.
I don't need participation points or attaboys. It's bad enough we have to endure that trash in real life. We watch football because it's modern day gladiators. Ever see a gladiator get kinda better and still lose? They either got their shiite together and won or they got killed. The Phins have been straight up evicerated twice this year.
I think bottom line , Ricky, you are right. and when you say eviscerated, it let's me know that they failed miserably in the offseason. First of all, Tannehill should have had the surgery in Nov 16. Nonetheless, they thought he could defy science. Even if they thought he could have, they made no improvement at QB. No development, no free agency, no draft. Now granted, look how Matt Moore did in the playoffs last year and in NE. They won 6-7 in a row because of a healthy line. That line got injured fast. Again they didn't do much to fix the line.
Again defying science , thinking Pouncey is healthy. Also, the line did well when Tunsil was inside. Are they not seeing he is not a tackle?
The QB stuff aside, they need to draft one this year – that much is a certainty to me – as far as Tunsil goes, I think he'll continue to improve. He missed a good chunk of camp with his family situation and started off slowly. Since Foerster blew out of town, Tunsil's been much better. I do think he's a bit top-heavy in terms of build from last season having to play G. I think if he trims down a bit this offseason, he'll be better more consistently next year.
Outside of Melvin Ingram in the Chargers game, no one's really bested him for an entire game. And, IMO, I think smaller, squatty guys have always given him trouble. Tunsil handled Myles Garrett his last year at Ole Miss, but had fits with Carl Lawson (6'2" 260). That's continued in the NFL against guys like Ingram (2 years in a row now vs. Ingram specifically).
I think the O-line as a unit will be better next year, especially if DeGuglielmo is still here. They've managed to put in some nice wrinkles into the run game every week since the Atlanta game that have worked. I think it almost has to get better next year if only by addition by subtraction – Bushrod certainly, and I think you have two tough calls with Pouncey and James. I personally think Pouncey needs to go. Iffy on James.
Everybody watches the sport for different reasons. For some , yes I agree its all about the W's and L's. There is a large community, especially here on this forum, that approaches the game much differently. Scouting trends, player evaluation, personnel alignments are all part of the detailed workings many of us love about the game of football. I can guarantee you this….the betting community does not just look at football like its modern day gladiators..
Just tell him:
"game always coin flip, some time coin heaver one side than other"