Mockery of a mock

I don’t normally post a mock, but Hawks-Magic is so boring that I need something else to do.

1. Carolina Panthers - QB Cam Newton, Auburn
The best quarterback prospect in the draft and a potentially elite player at the position, which automatically makes him the best candidate for going first. Marty Hurney is the only person in the Panthers organization who believes in Jimmy Clausen.
Alt: QB Blaine Gabbert

2. Denver Broncos - DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
A safe pick for a franchise that could use one. Dareus is not quite on the level of Ndamukong Suh, but he can play any spot in a 3-4 or 4-3 front.
Alt: CB Patrick Peterson

3. Buffalo Bills - DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina
I struggled with this pick. Buffalo switched back to the 4-3 mid-season, and they appear to be sticking with that. They need a pass rusher of some sort regardless of what scheme they run, and Quinn’s silver lining is an ability to play both 4-3 rush end and convert to 3-4 rush linebacker if they decide to switch back.
Alt: OLB Von Miller

4. Cincinnati Bengals - WR A.J. Green, Georgia
The Bengals approach the draft by predetermining which position they’ll draft at each pick, then selecting the best player at that position on draft day. They’re going WR in the first round, which means A.J. Smith is their man.
Alt: WR Julio Jones

5. Arizona Cardinals - OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M
Yeah, that Joey Porter thing didn’t work out too well.
Alt: QB Blaine Gabbert

6. Cleveland Browns - WR Julio Jones, Alabama
Another tough pick. What they do here depends on Buffalo. If Buffalo is sticking with the 3-4, then Robert Quinn should still be here, and they’d select him instead. But assuming Buffalo goes back to the 4-3, Quinn is gone, which means they could either reach for a tackle (Fairley) or reach for a receiver. Teams tend to reach for receivers, so Jones goes off the board here if Cleveland can’t trade down.
Alt: DE Robert Quinn

7. San Francisco 49ers - CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
San Fran goes BPA here. Peterson is rumored heavily to be at the top of their draft board. While, granted, he’s probably at the top of most teams’ boards, teams rarely go pure BPA. The Niners will here.
Alt: QB Blaine Gabbert

8. Tennessee Titans - QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
Fourth time’s the charm for Blaine. The Titans need a franchise QB with Vince Young gone and Kerry Collins likely in the last year of his career.
Alt: DT Nick Fairley

9. Dallas Cowboys - CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
The Boys have been smokescreening interesting Tyron Smith lately. While that’s the sort of pick Jerry Jones would normally make, he knows full well how deficient the secondary really is. Amukamara will go a long way to fixing that.
Alt: OT Tyron Smith

10. Washington Redskins - DE Cameron Jordan, Cal
So, this whole “draft” thing usually doesn’t go very well for the Redskins. The players they’d really like—Gabbert, Quinn, Jones—are all gone in this mock. Cameron Jordan is not exactly a bad consolation prize.
Alt: DE/OLB Aldon Smith

11. Houston Texans - DE/OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri
Something of a luxury pick, since Mario Williams will be converting to OLB as well, but both top corners are off the board, and Houston needs some way to improve their pass defense. Might as well knock Peyton Manning on his *** a few more times per game.
Alt: CB Jimmy Smith

12. Minnesota Vikings - QB Jake Locker, Washington
While true that Rick Spielman prefers veteran QBs, Leslie Frazier let the cat out of the bag early in the process by signaling interest in adding a new QB. Locker is probably more of a WCO guy, which the Vikings appear to be moving away from, but since when does Spielman make a correct move at quarterback?
Alt: QB Ryan Mallett

13. Detroit Lions - CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado
Detroit will dwell in the cellar as long as they continue to field historically terrible pass defenses. In a division with Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler, Chris Houston and Nathan Vasher won’t get it done.
Alt: OT Tyron Smith

14. St. Louis Rams - DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
Concerns swirl about Fairley’s inconsistent effort in practice and even games, but when he wants to play, he’s a force. At #14, the risk is worth the reward.
Alt: DT Corey Liuget

15. Miami Dolphins - OG Mike Pouncey, Florida
Jeff Ireland is 1 for 2 in exciting me with 1st round picks, his only hit being Vontae Davis in 2009. The pessimist in me says he’ll go 1 for 3.
Alt: RB Mark Ingram

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
Fills a huge hole at DE. Aaron Kampman keeps getting hurt, and previous defensive line busts must be swept into the memory hole.
Alt: QB Christian Ponder

17. New England Patriots - DE J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
Arguably the BPA at this point, Watt is a strong, blue-collar type of player who’ll fit in well next to Vince Wilfork.
Alt: RB Mark Ingram

18. San Diego Chargers - OT Tyron Smith, USC
The Chargers need help at DE, but not so much that they can pass up on the value presented by Smith. Can plug in immediately at RT, and eventually take over for Marcus McNeill on the left side.
Alt: DE Cameron Heyward

19. New York Giants - OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
San Diego kick-starts a small run on tackles, and the Giants are happy to participate. Castonzo is a better player than Smith, in my view, and can be considered a few notches down from the likes of Jake Long and Joe Thomas.
Alt: OLB Akeem Ayers

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DE Justin Houston, Georgia
Value meets need. The Bucs need defensive ends badly, and Houston can become a premium pass rusher to boot.
Alt: DE Adrian Clayborn

21. Kansas City Chiefs - OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
Carimi can take over immediately at right tackle, and can potentially be a left tackle of the future if Branden Albert continues to struggle. A perfect fit for the Chiefs.
Alt: DT Phil Taylor

22. Indianapolis Colts - OT Nate Solder, Colorado
Ryan Diem is coming off the worst season in his career, and he’s on the wrong side of 30. Protecting Peyton Manning should be priority #1 for the Colts, whose Super Bowl window is beginning to slowly close.
Alt: OT Derek Sherrod

23. Philadelphia Eagles - OG/T Danny Watkins, Baylor
Philly woud probably love to get Jimmy Smith somehow, but he’s long gone in this mock. Alternatively, they’d prefer to trade up to get Smith, but no trades in a mock. Their second-biggest weakness is along the OL, so here you are, Coach Reid.
Alt: CB Brandon Harris

24. New Orleans Saints - DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson
Huge value here. Bowers will be a monster opposite Will Smith, assuming the knee checks out. Then again, the Saints don’t have a problem trusting talent over medical reports. Reference Brees, Drew.
Alt: DT Muhammad Wilkerson

25. Seattle Seahawks - DT Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple
Yet another tough pick. The Seahawks would probably love Jake Locker, who by now is being fitted for a purple jersey. Wilkerson’s versatility presents huge value for the Seahawks’ D, so he’s not a bad consolation prize.
Alt: QB Christian Ponder

26. Baltimore Ravens - DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
Big steal here for Ozzie Newsome. Heyward lets Haloti Ngata kick inside to replace NT Kelly Gregg, or even act as the DE instead of Terrell Suggs in 4 man fronts.
Alt: OT Derek Sherrod

27. Atlanta Falcons - DE Brooks Reed, Arizona
A bit of a reach, but necessary. John Abraham is on his last legs, and Reed fits the Falcons’ pass rusher profile very nicely. He can also drop into coverage, a bonus.
Alt: TE Kyle Rudolph

28. New England Patriots - QB Christian Ponder, Florida State
I’m not actually mocking Ponder to the Pats, but rather Ponder as the 28th overall pick. New England has been trying to trade this pick for a while, and you have to believe they’ll find a taker. They always do. Ponder has first round talent and is very pro-ready. Whoever snags him will be very happy.
Alt: RB Mark Ingram

29. Chicago Bears - DT Corey Liuget, Illinois
The Bears need help at OL, but the earlier run on tackles puts a damper on that. They’ll look to the defensive line, where Tommie Harris is ready to be phased out.
Alt: RB Mark Ingram

30. New York Jets - DT Phil Taylor, Baylor
The Jets got on fine without Kris Jenkins for two seasons in a row, but they originally signed him for a reason. Taylor will play immediately at the nose.
Alt: OLB Akeem Ayers

31. Pittsburgh Steelers - CB/FS Aaron Williams, Texas
Pittsburgh always drafts for value, so it’s very tempting to place Mark Ingram here, but they seem content to run Rashard Mendenhall into the ground. So, looking at the best fit instead of the absolute best player, going cornerback seems the best bet.
Alt: OT/G Benjamin Ijalana

32. Green Bay Packers - OT/G Benjamin Ijalana, Villanova
The Packers did two things in 2010: get injured, and win anyway. They won because Aaron Rodgers stayed relatively healthy, though he has a small history of concussions. Priority #1 should be to protect Rodgers going forward. Ijalana isn’t ideal value here, and the Packers would probably prefer Danny Watkins, but Ijalana presents similar versatility.
Alt: CB Brandon Harris



As a last note, I mocked several positions against some knowledge and statements floating around out there. For example, Adam Schefter’s informed statement that Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder will be first round picks, or the word that Colin Kaepernick is slowly creeping into the bottom of the 1st round. These may very well be true statements, but it seems like the only way those picks will happen is through trades, and there are several teams in this mock who would love to trade down: the Eagles at 23, Seattle at 25, and New England at 28. That would neatly fit the scenario of Dalton, Ponder, and Kaepernick all being drafted in the first round.

And Hawks-Magic is still boring as hell.

 

Just because they should doesn’t mean they will.

Also, Detroit’s need to improve their pass D is arguably a bigger need than offensive line. Their historically bad pass defense is the main reason they went 0-16 a couple of years ago, and they aren’t much better now.

 

We’ll see. Detroit may be outthinking themselves, believing they can get offensive linemen in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Or they may draft another freaking tight end.

 

I don’t like Tyron Smith at all either, but he’s the consensus #1 LT. I don’t know how, but he is. I greatly prefer Castonzo and even Carimi to him.

That status as consensus #1 is why I describe him as a value pick for the Chargers, BTW. If you get a guy in the first round 10 slots later than where most believe he’s going to go, then it qualifies.

 

He’s considered the #1 LT. I think it’s Carimi considered the #1 RT. Charlie Casserly, for example, is all over Tyron Smith as the only really decent LT in this class.

I don’t see how a player who’s never played the position before can be considered to have a higher ceiling. To me, that’s like saying Jake Locker is a potential All-Pro cornerback.

There are a few spots he can go in the early 1st, but I limited myself to just one alternate per team. He could go anywhere from 8 to 15. If he lasts past us, he’s probably going to be a 2nd rounder. I also think he’s in play at #15, but I was intentionally pessimistic about that pick. Unless Cam Newton miraculously falls, Mallett is probably the best pick there, but I have a nagging feeling Ireland pulls a Jared Odrick again.

 

My point is that it’s tough to say a guy has a high ceiling at a position he’s never played. Put him there, see how he plays, then grade him based on how he’s projected to improve with more experience and coaching. I have Smith’s ceiling lower than Castonzo’s and even Carimi’s, because I don’t think he’d be as good at LT as they would.

By “pulling an Odrick”, I mean making a not-obvious selection that requires some mental gymnastics (and possibly roster reconfiguration) to understand, and is questionable whether or not the move addresses any serious need. Taking Gabe Carimi to play RT, for example, would be pulling an Odrick. Drafting Jimmy Smith would be pulling an Odrick. Julio Jones, if he falls, would also be pulling an Odrick.

 

Disagree. Quarterback play is the reason why our offense was crap, and the best way to improve QB play is to improve the QB, not the OL.

The bigger point is that Carimi would play the same position as a guy with a $42 million contract. So you either move Carimi out of position or you move the guy with the $42 million contract out of position. It won’t end well either way.

Both picks would be nothing more than Ireland skirting around the glaring problems on the roster.

#15 must be a quarterback. I’m pessimistic about that happening, though.

 

If we trade down and come away with Watkins and Ponder, I’ll take back every bad thing I’ve ever said about Jared Odrick.

 

I’m not missing the point, I just disagree with it. Quarterbacks win games. Running backs don’t.

I disagree again. We’re in an era where rookies are increasingly contributing immediately, even rookie QBs. Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Bradford, Tom Brady, Josh Freeman all come to mind. I would expect any QB we take to compete in camp immediately for a starting spot, and with the way Henne’s playing, likely win. This year’s crop of QBs has at least 3 immediate starters: Cam Newton (by virtue of position as the likely #1 overall pick), Christian Ponder (by virtue of pro readiness and intelligence), and Ryan Mallett (by virtue of succeeding in a pro style offense in college).

The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds this year all have quality, starting-caliber interior offensive linemen and running backs. They don’t have starting-caliber quarterbacks.

 

We can do that in the middle rounds this year. The likely OL scenario going into 2011 is John Jerry starting at RG, competition between Incognito and Berger at C, and a rookie LG. We can get that rookie LG outside of the first round. Same thing with RBs, we can snag guys in the middle rounds. I like Shane Vereen, maybe paired up with Dion Lewis.

What really worries me is Ireland’s statement that he’s assuming no FAs will come back and he has to fill needs in the draft. I hope it’s BS, because there WILL be free agency somehow.

 

We’re not in disagreement, though I admit Mallett is my last ditch QB.

 

Too late, we already have big holes.

 

Whoops, my mistake. I misremembered that Brady came off the bench in 2001, not 2000.

Still, point stands.