Matt Barkley declares on TV. Don't think we should break the bank on a free agent QB

Disagree Deej, I'd take a shot on an Orton or a Young, as the roadway is littered with "can't miss Qb's" who missed.

 

Well nostradamus allow me to borrow your crystal ball so I may pick some winning lottery numbers...

Point being, brushing of '9-10 wins" and a "playoff" birth as inconsequential is foolhardy, you make the playoffs then see where you can go from there, some questionable rook Qb is no guarantee of even making it in the NFL let alone accomplishing those things.

 

This has been my thought process all along as a Henne fan. Either he sinks or swims. If he sinks then we'll be picking probably like 10-15 range with a full compliment of picks to move up if needed. If he swims then we are a playoff team and making some noise in the AFC.

That said I like Barkley about as much as I like Luck. Id take either in a heartbeat if Henne falters.

 

I was wondering what a QQ was?

 

If Chad Henne starts for us and fails, we are going to need to replace a hell of a lot more than the QB.

 

Dude, I would trade my entire draft for either one in a heartbeat. To be honest, if Henne stinks it up (which I dont think he will) we have no really pressing needs other then QB anyway. There are things we would like maybe (another pass rusher, TE upgrade maybe) but if Henne is bad QB will be far and away our biggest need. Be bold. Im hoping he pulls a Brees but if he pulls a Russell Im for pulling a Ditka. And you know how much I hate trading picks cause we have had that discussion

 

The deck is heavily stacked in Henne's favor for this year. I don't see any QB answers in FA or trades, and there is going to be a VERY short time for any new QB to fit in. When you think about it, there have been very few FAs at any position who have made a big impact on their new teams. They are FA for a reason, and not many are because their old teams cannot afford them.

I like McNabb IF it's the right contract and attitude. He is a proven vet, gone through adversity with a WR, and has playoff experience, winning two games a couple of years ago. I'm looking for someone who can cover this year and next year. This gives Henne this season to prove himself, and next year to bring in a rookie if it comes to that. JMO

 

On this point I actually agree. There's too much uncertainty in football to cut things so fine. If you think Kyle Orton or Vince Young get you 9 or 10 wins and a playoff run, you don't even hesitate one single second making the move. Teams get hot and the Super Bowl is often won by the team that did NOT dominate the regular season. Anything can happen in the NFL's second season. Ask the Giants, or Cowher's Steelers. Ask the Jets who've been to the AFC Championship twice in a row, having won the division neither time.

I just don't think Vince Young or Kyle Orton get us there. I think the team is better off with Chad Henne than Vince Young. Though I believe the team would improve with Kyle Orton, it wouldn't be close to enough to count on 9 or 10 wins and a playoff run. Yet, Orton by all accounts is going to cost a 2nd round pick, the same 2nd round pick whose absence from our arsenal provides the most common excuse as to why Miami couldn't partake of this record-setting 2011 quarterbacks class. I don't want to be in that situation yet again in the 2012 Draft (which has a shot to feature a similarly good QB class) just for the sake of improving from 6-10 to 7-9.

 

There is no way Brandon Marshall, for example, makes it through 2011 if Chad Henne is the starting QB and plays poorly. There will be a lot of collateral damage associated with the decision if it pans out that way.

 

Green Bay as well, they were on the playoff bubble most of 2010, by no means were they dominant all season.

I'm an unabashed Orton fan, and think if he is identified as the Qb they feel can take us up a notch then they should pay the #2 pick for him, as Ron Wolf said "if he is your guy there is no price to steep", but also think Young would be a nice hedge bet, low acquisition cost, could conceivably beat out Henne, and would not steal practice reps from a developmental Qb whom we paid a lot to acquire.

If he flames out, Thigpen is the #3 Qb, which would actually be a good situation to my view, the whole lot of them are disposible, if Henne doesn't pan out, if Young is not serious, if Thigpen does not develop further, all 3 can walk via FA after the season and "if" a new regime is installed.

 

Does for me Deej, and he is well worth a #2 pick, easily worth it.

Wolf in the same chat was considered to kind to say anything negative about Henne, but he and Henning were there discussing the dolphins' need to add a different Qb.

Now consider Vince Young, no #2 pick required, well under 30, maybe has that chip on his shoulder, if Orton is off of the menu Young should be on it.

 

Now that it's starting to come out that Kyle Shanahan is a bit of a nazi with respect to QB play in his system, and therefore it's starting to make sense to me why Donovan McNabb didn't perform well in a system I thought should have been a good scheme fit...I'm softening on the idea of McNabb in Miami. Enough to where I wouldn't mind asking him myself what happened with the issue of wearing playsheet on his wrist band and him refusing to do it.

I've talked about how veteran QBs that have performed at elite or near elite levels in their career can absolutely have bounceback seasons in a new environment. It happens all the time. Happened to us with Chad Pennington. I think the two guys out there right now that have the best chance to reclaim magic are Marc Bulger and Donovan McNabb. There's a third, Matt Hasselbeck, but I'd thought he was a shoe-in to return to Seattle once I learned he had a playbook and has been running player practices up there much like Alex Smith. But now there are writers claiming he's not going to return despite all that. So I'll keep him in limbo for now. Of the two McNabb and Bulger, from a pure talent level, McNabb makes more sense to me than Bulger to have that kind of comeback year, if he finds the right system. I do not believe Miami runs the right system, and that's one of the reasons I haven't wanted him. He could have that bounceback year but it likely would not be here. The record of long time WCO quarterbacks going to non-WCOs...it isn't good, that I've found. Seems like those guys have to go back to the right WCO before they start having success again (Jeff Garcia, Brett Favre).

Now, if Matt Hasselbeck DOES make it out of Seattle without a contract...I believe the Dolphins will make a play for him, even before they make a play for Marc Bulger. If you watch him play extensively, even in 2010...he just plays the game in a way that I think Tony Sparano and Jeff Ireland would appreciate. But again, same WCO thing applies. His whole career has been WCO. I could see this staff believing Hasselbeck has the brains and commitment to overcome the system thing. That's them, not me. I would argue against them on that particular issue, as wouldn't you think Jeff Garcia would also have had the brains and commitment to overcome that, and yet he still only had success again when he got into Gruden's WCO? Either way, he just plays football in a way that I think they would like. I'd considered him a shoe-in to return to the Seahawks but it's interesting that some media in Seattle consider it the opposite.

Small world factor with Matt Hasselbeck...his first three years at Boston College (started in his third year), he was coached by who else? None other than Dan Henning.

 

I remember that.

Anyway I agree with DJ though. There's a difference between Orton being "a guy" that might help you improve a little and being "your guy", the kind Ron Wolf implies you should pay whatever cost to get. I don't imagine Kyle Orton inspiring that level of conviction in anyone, present company excluded.

 

Thing is, we really cannot know what they think other then they are going to bring a Veteran Qb into the mix.

And I do, easily, 3 consecutive yrs of improvement across the board and he is under 30, Orton is clearly on a career upswing.

As for McNabb, his skills have eroded measurably, he also is chained to the idea that he deserves a Brady like long term deal, just smells like C-Pepe redux, Hasselback would be an option just do not like the lack of any real upside, Bulger has already been discussed.

 

I don't see any QB in this FA class which fills me with enough confidence to give up anything that will hamstring our ability to get (or trade up for) a QB in the next draft if I see a guy worth trading up for. Heck, I don't see any QB in this draft that fills me with anymore confidence than Henne does. I want a vet QB but all I'm looking for is a double-up as I don't see an upgrade as likely. Since I don't see Henne as franchise guy I want to bring in that franchise guy as soon as possible. I'm not going to over pay for uninspiring talent like the 2011 class offered, but I want to be able to pull the trigger if I see reasonable value in the 2012 class. I said last year that I was willing to trade the whole draft + for Luck so it's not a matter of not being willing to pay. Rather it's a matter of whether I like what's available to buy.

 

Rafi, to me draft picks are for acquiring talent, doesn't matter if you draft them, or trade the picks for them, they are chips in the game and nothing more, if anything they do offer Ownership more value as they can be used to draft younger, cheaper, players who may or may not help the team.

That fact alone to me is one of the reasons why I believe the Draft is waaay overrated as a means of talent acquisition.

With that, if a cost in picks price is an issue, Vince Young makes the most sense to me as his "price" is quite low and he also protects the draft picks in 2012 if Sparano flames out in 2011.

 

I'm not against using draft picks if I feel I'm acquiring talent. I just put Orton and Young in the same "not a franchise QB" category as Henne. And by franchise QB I mean a QB who can carry the team. I think that if we bring in any of those guys at the expense of draft picks that we'll still be looking for that franchise guy. Basically we'll be in the same spot as we were last year. So I'm against spending the draft picks to get more of what we already have.

 

The Packers were not the best team in all of football in the regular season. The playoffs is all about catching fire and riding that hot streak. See Green Bay last year, see Arizona when they went to SB, see others in past years.

 

And of course I disagree with that approach, a "franchise Qb" whatever...that...is, to me is not the goal, it would be nice, but not the goal so to speak, you first need a Competent Qb who then evolves into a Play Creating Qb, which is where Henne sort of falls down, he is borderline Competent not close to Creating Offense Qb, to me both Orton and Young are borderline Play Creating Qb's.

Orton was on pace to throw for 5k yds, Young improved his QBR the last two yrs, and led a mediocre Titans teams to a 12-5 record over the last two yrs, to me that is the raw materials that one looks for in a Vet Qb, and being under 30 without serious injuries to their legs.

 

I see Henne as just as likely (or more) of taking that next step as the QBs you mentioned. So using a 2nd on Orton would put us in basically the same position as this past year. We would have a slightly older QB whom we will probably need to upgrade and we will be lacking the picks to move up in the draft should we believe there is somebody there whom we deem is worth moving up for. IMO the QBs that may come out and be at the top of the draft have far more upside than Orton or Henne or Young. I am not in favor of hamstringing our options to secure two Hennes on the roster. Young I see as less likely than Henne and Orton to make the next step.

 

Of course, which means they never will, thusly Nostradamus.

Step #1..reach playoffs
Step #2..see Step #1

 

Once Luck, Jones and Barkley declare for the 2012 draft, it's gonna be the best QB draft in a long time. IMO, far better than 2011 was.

 

And you are beating the bush for one of the cant miss qbs that missed in Young, sorry but the story tells it all. He has had twice as long starting as henne and is being cut, sounds prototypical franchise qb to me.

Sorry just cannot stomach the thought of Young.


Orton I would love in a player alone. He is credible comp and is serviceable. Still looking to draft a qb next year tho with either of your options. henne could suprise in that he has had only 1 3/4 yrs starting and has shown some good things but bad things as well. The bad I think can be fixed and he has teh want to.

Orton is a good qb but his ceiling is where he is, and I think the cost will be too high.

 

Will spare one the Vick allusions, we simply disagree.

See I like Orton but admit trading for him means Henne is in deep kimchi in Miami, am willing to take that shot for the 1.7 td to 1 int ratio and instant production, if he costs a #2 though, I'd pay it, most wouldn't, which is why Young is a nice compromise, costs nothing, can produce the 20+ Td's we need out of the Qb position.

IMHO of course.

 

Question was Orton in his first two years on the Bears more impresive than Henne his first two?

I don't recall him showing more talent until he got to Denver.

 

Yes they were, digging back a bit his 05 Rook yr they went 10-5 and he was poorer then Henne, in 08 he was better then Henne and has only improved since 2008 each yr his numbers get appreciably better.

 

Keep in mind though, the Schedule is setup for success this yr, for the first time since 2008, I do not wish to waste this opportunity hoping that Henne turns into a Play Creating Qb Deej, maybe he can, maybe he cannot, turn that corner, I'm risk adverse when it comes to production.

 

Not after the first 4 games or so, our opening schedule is brutal deej, but then sort of plays into our hands.

Real question is, how much are you willing to bet on one or the other?

 

I agree that the schedule is set up for success and that it's very likely that Henne will look very good at times and not as good at others. But unless he looks like a top 5 guy (which I doubt), I want to try to bring in a QB who has a top 5 kind of a ceiling. I don't want us to get 9 or 10 wins and make the playoffs and then decide we're set at QB b/c of it. I don't even care if we win the SB (obviously I'd care, but not in regards to a QB search). We got there with Wood/Strock and still drafted Marino. I want the same approach. Otherwise we'll most likely continue our roller coaster output where we make the playoffs or not depending upon the difficulty of the schedule and whether the bounces (injuries, TOs, etc) go our way or not.

 

I'm looking for Competence and SOME Play Creating Ability, no dummy int's, some great throws into tight windows, starts all 16 games and hits a positive Td to Int ratio and over 3,500 yds, if Henne hits those bench marks, especially if he tops 20 Td passes, I'll be happy with him at Qb.