http://www.nfl.com/players/kyleorton/situationalstats?id=ORT716150 13 Td's..-0- interceptions Better then: Rivers 11 Td and 0 int's Brees 14 and 1 int Ben R 6 Td's and 0 int's There are reasons why I'd pay that #2 draft pick for Kyle Orton. For comparison's sakes: Henne 4 Td's -0- int's A second rd pick is dirt cheap.
Career-wise Orton throws TD from goal to go situations about 32% (30 of 95) which is right around NFL starter average. In 2010 it was 6 out of 15 which is right in that neighborhood but higher. Not statistically significant enough sample to prove improvement but nonetheless, he does punch it in the end zone. Quick decision maker. Accurate. Henne was 4 of 17 this year and is 12 of 39 career. Not bad. Honestly this isn't necessarily a part of Henne's game I'd complain about that much.
Actually I'm showing Henne was 26 of 46 with 10 TDs on the opponent's 19 to 0 yard line. Also threw 2 interceptions. In 2009 he was 26 of 48 with 11 TDs and 1 INT. Also had 1 run for 1 TD. So actually Henne throws for touchdowns at a higher rate in the red zone than Kyle Orton. This is not an area I'd be as inclined to complain about as much in Chad Henne, nor is it an area where I'd go all ga-ga for Orton relative to Henne.
Be quiet you!!!!! TBH, I'm surprised there is not more of a groundswell for Orton among Dolphins fans. My goodness, #2 picks busting out at a 40% rate in 2 yrs, and yet "no, do not trade draft picks for a young, productive starting Qb, are you crazy!!" It's like battered dolfan syndrome, a perfectly good option stares them in the face and yet..
That was just 2010 for Orton, in 09: 9 td's and -0- ints for 22 td's 0 int's over the last two yrs in the red zone. Wait a minute, I looked at Goal to Go situations for Orton, let me see RZ: in 09 17 Td's 1 int in 10 13 Td's 0 int's 30 td's -0- int's in the red zone in the last two yrs
It's simple, I'd rather have a good quarterback in next year's Draft than Kyle Orton. This year we couldn't trade up and get the QB we wanted in part because we lacked a 2nd round pick. Next year we once again can't guarantee we'll be picking in good position to get 'the guy' that the Coach Cowher wants. So spending that 2nd round pick carries with it a cost that I'm not willing to carry right now. Not for Kyle Orton.
So then the title of this thread should be that Kyle Orton is a zero-interception machine in the red zone. Because he's not a touchdown machine.
And what stats are you looking at? You're misquoting statistics all over the place. Kyle Orton 2009: 39 of 74, 17 TD, 1 INT Kyle Orton 2010: 29 of 67, 13 TD, 0 INT Chad Henne 2009: 26 of 48, 11 TD, 1 INT Chad Henne 2010: 26 of 46, 10 TD, 2 INT Those are the correct stats. If you're going to be a stat monkey you should at least aim for accuracy.
There will be no Coach Cowher in Miami, and we should pull the trigger on Orton even for a #1 pick, Orton for a #2 is a steal and hopefully gets done.
I just can't see spending a first rounder on Kyle Orton. I really just don't get the love affair with him.
Wait a minute there chief, both sets of stats I quote were accurate, you may not like them and you may add # of attempts, however Orton outperformed Brees and Rivers in 2010 in the RZ, and easily outperformed Henne in 09 and 10, and probably 08 as well. Make that 43 Td's and 2 int's for the last 3 yrs, easily worth a #2 pick, you know what you are getting
He is an ascending, young qb who has 3 straight yrs of measurable improvement, a #1 pick is at best a crap shoot. It is my philosophy that the Draft is a highly overrated means of acquiring needed Qb talent that is ready to contribute.
I would argue that Chad Henne has been better in the red zone during his first two years. Again this is not an area where I was ever about to really ding him. A lot of his issues stem more from a lack of natural downfield aggression (and accuracy), and his handling of pressure. Those don't show up in the red zone as much, where he's good enough to be called average for an NFL starter. It's getting INTO the red zone that becomes problematic for him. He throws interceptions like whoa between his own 21 and 50 yard lines because those are the areas he's being told to be aggressive and create chunk plays, and he's not naturally aggressive so he forces the ball. Then he gets into the 50 to 21 on the opponent's side and he flips the script, coaches want him to make sure he preserves a scoring opportunity so he gets too conservative and doesn't play with a punch-it-in mentality. But once he gets in the red zone, he's got average efficiency. It's not something I'd be inclined to complain about. Nor something I'd be inclined to brag about in Kyle Orton. Looking at the two, Henne produces TD passes at about the same rate (22.3% versus Orton's 21.3%) and yes he did take 6 more points off the board than Orton but he also completed more passes. That means Henne has converted 1st downs from inside the red zone 34 times in 94 throws. Orton has converted1st downs from inside the red zone 36 times on 141 throws. To me, Henne's increased efficiency that way makes up for the fact that he turned the ball over a little more. But they're both just average in that area. Nothing to write home about. If you want to sing Kyle Orton's praises I think you talk about some of the deeper throws he's made, the chunk plays that got his team INTO the red area a lot more.
No, your stats were not accurate. 1. You said that Chad Henne had 4 TDs and 0 INTs in the red zone. This is untrue. He had 10 TDs and 2 INTs in the red zone in 2010. 2. You said that Phil Rivers had 11 TDs and 0 INTs in the red zone. This is untrue. Rivers had 18 TDs and 2 INTs in the red zone in 2010. 3. You said that Ben Roethlisberger had 6 TDs and 0 INTs in the red zone. This is untrue. Big Ben had 12 TDs and 1 INT in the red zone in 2010. 4. You said that Drew Brees had 14 TDs and 1 INT in the red zone. This is untrue. Brees had 25 TDs and 4 INTs in the red zone in 2010. 5. And then you said that in 2009 Kyle Orton had 9 TDs and 0 INTs in the red zone for a total of 22 TDs and 0 INTs over the last two years. Then you corrected yourself as he actually had 17 TDs and 1 INT in the red zone in 2009 bringing him to 30 TDs and 1 INT over the last two years. I can honestly say I've never seen someone quote so many different totally untrue and inaccurate statistics in one thread post. You should double check your stats before you post them, for the sake of accuracy.
One of the many reasons why I like Orton is he and Henne had holographic offensive situations in 2010, neither had a running game to speak of, both had comprable Olines, both had one dominant Wr to work with, Orton simply produced more and more efficiently then Henne did in 2010. As for Orton v Henne in the RZ, Orton has done it for 3 yrs, which makes him far more a known then the hope that Henne can produce, as Henne's other problems, poor 4 minute offense, tipped passes, int to td ratio, all have not went away, and as per the norm, a rookie Qb be they a #1 pick or not is simply not going to produce at a very high level, won't happen.
Please, I mislabeled goal to go as RZ, the stats themselves were quite accurate. My goodness, duh, if you mislabel something then everything afterwards will not be true to the lable and will of course appear incorrect, which is why I posted a correction post and Orton still outperformed Brees and Rivers and Rothlisberger. Which while inconvenient, is a fact., Orton's 43 and 1 redzone efficiency over the last 3 seasons is borderline elite and better then most of the "name" Qb's one would care to mention. Fro some context, Tom Brady was 37-2 over the last two seasons in the red zone.
That's your excuse? Really? Pick your poison. You said that Kyle Orton's RED ZONE stats were 13 TDs, 0 INTs. Now you're saying this was goal to go? Because it wasn't. His goal to go stats were 6 TDs and 0 INT. But you said 13 TDs and 0 INTs. And then you provided a link to an NFL situational stats page which doesn't even HAVE goal to go stats on it. Give me a break. All I did was point out that you misquoted some stats. No big deal. You make it a big deal when you insist you were correct in the face of overwhelming evidence that you were not. Instead of saying "oops my bad" and correcting your stats, you start feeding lines of BS like Sarah Palin. Good lord.
Wound up toggling over to the Yahoo sports site to find goal to go stats, either way though 43-2 in 3 yrs? Orton produces in the Red Zone, which is yet one more reason to trade for him, even a #1 pick. Of course one can try and play school marm, still does not obscure the fact of the matter that Orton is far superior to any drafted Qb we could have taken this yr, or more then likely next yr.
And I see that you've added Tom Brady's TWO SEASON red zone stats and are comparing them with Kyle Orton's THREE SEASON red zone stats. C'mon man. You should be better than this.
Last two yrs slick, Brady is 37-2 in the RZ, Orton is 30-1, I could spell that out but would naturally would assume, you knew that and I wrote as much. Cannot include Brady's last 3 yrs as he did not play in 08 once again, seems so common sensical that one should not have to spell it out. I thought you were better then that and knew that "gosh, if he went back 3 yrs it won't work as Brady did not play in 08".
Not trying to be mean I just don't see why stats should be some great big impossible to figure out monster. You've said many times before that stats aren't your thing, and I think you might have just been right about that. For instance over the last 2 seasons, Tom Brady has thrown 47 TDs and 2 INTs in 163 red zone attempts. This compares with Orton's 30 TDs and 1 INT in 141 red zone attempts over the same time period. If you want to drag a third season into Orton's stats then fine, he has 43 TDs and 2 INTs in 200 red zone attempts. But doing the same with Tom Brady means he threw 87 TDs and 3 INTs in 295 red zone attempts. Not exactly a statistical win for Kyle Orton. Like I said, I think Orton is just average in the red zone, and surprisingly so is Chad Henne even though (in my opinion) he is less than average in many other areas.
It's actually kind of funny that you can speak to me in such a haughty tone while continuing to misquote even more stats. Tom Brady had 47 TDs the last two seasons in the red zone. Gotta carry that 1 when you're adding 18 and 29.
Dammit I think you are right, let me check. Yep, messing around with Yahoo Sports vs NFL.com and goal to go vs red zone has done me in again.. My mistake.
Now THERE is an understatement... With Brady not playing in 08 to me it did not make much sense to go back to 07 and to stick with just a 2 yr comparison, mixing informational sources though, was not a good idea. Disagree, I think Orton's 30-1 or whatever it is puts him over Henne as pts are at such a premium that even a 3 Td advantage means more in a weighted sense, bump it up to 35 pts and that is (almost)a FG per game difference in scoring inow the Browns, Bills, Steelers game could turn out differently with that simple difference in production for us.
But Kyle Orton had like 50% more attempts in the red zone than Henne did. Henne had like 94 attempts and Orton had like 141.
You have what you have though Ck, all that particularly matters is points produced, everything is "sanchez got lucky with the dropped int's!" For me, it says what it says, now consider that Orton may have had additional attempts because he was not throwing 9 additional int's and not shooting his offense in the foot on the Broncos side of the 50 yd line, Henne had 13 int's and Orton 4 on their side of the 50. The other holographic factor is: Attempts when team was behind in the game: Henne-289 Orton-299 Interesting when one considers how dreadful the Broncos Defense was in 2010.
Orton is no Drew Brees or Curt Warner plus we, the Dolphins, have been down this road many times since 1999 and just what are the results in Super Bowls attended let alone won. O, zilch, nana, a big fat egg, Our record with other teams trash is a visit to the post season 3 years in that time frame with 1 win to notch on our handle. Sorry padre you are selling snake oil to a snake bit guy who would rather shoot you than listen to your pitch!
Look at the attempts. Orton has 9 TD's more and 2 less INT's in the red zone in 141 attempts or 47 more attempts. That's the equivalent of an entire year of redzone throws for Henne. Scaling it, Henne would have thrown for more Red Zone TD's. In two years, Orton threw a TD 21% of the time in his red zone attempts. Henne threw them at a rate of 22%. Boy does this thread look funny.
Problem is, Henne did not have the opportunities because he threw 12 int's on his side of the 50 yd line, in essence it shows Henne is one rather inefficient Qb at times, Orton on the other hand, threw 4, he simply outproduced Henne, and they both started roughly the same amount of games, Orton with 13 and Henne with what 14? The 5 Td difference also means 35 pts or 2.5 more pts per game, or right at the margin of loss in the Steelers, Browns and Bills games.
This is what they call changing the topic to win. You should start a new thread about this instead of changing the argument.
Any word on what Orton's red zone efficiency was during his first 2 years starting? And are we grading this on a curve to compensate for the disparity in skill between McDaniels and Henning? Most teams get inside the 30 and start attacking the end zone, when Henning gets inside the 30 yard line, he starts attacking the 25 .
11th in punts. We got to the red zone better than 21 other teams with terrible special teams and no player who can consistently stretch coverages and make players adjust or a good running game. I agree he needs to work on his deep ball but to pretend as if the situation was the most favorable is hilarious. Besides, if Henne had as many red zone attempts as Orton over the last two years, he would have thrown MORE TD's in the red zone. We would have won more games too like the second Bills game last year. He would have gotten better in the red zone possibly because of the familiarity factor as well. Orton had an entire YEAR more of throws compared to Henne's average and only managed 9 more TD's? Sounds pretty average here to me. Gotta go with ck here.
Interestingly, Orton's red zone in his first two years starting were 20 TD 2 INT even though there was two years for him to develop between his first and second years. Neither of these with a single WildCat play. Henne was 21 TD 3 INT. Attempts were even but Orton's 2008 consisted of about 11 more attempts. 59 to 48 or something like that. That was Orton's fourth year in the league.
Nonsense, do you think Orton was working with more talent then Henne worked with in 2010? And the larger point being, Orton has been consistently more productive then Henne, this idea that both took a very similar number of pass attemps: Henne: 490 Orton: 498 One produced 20 Td's the other 15, the difference is, one was more consistently productive and has been for the last 3 seasons, Henne has been consistent but it has been consistently mediocre, inow for the last 3 seasons Orton's game has expanded, for Henne's two seasons, he has remained the same, only Henne had a better running game in 09 then Orton had to work with.
