Kyle Orton: Red Zone TD producing machine!

There is sooo many things we can compare KM, and most are valid points. I just think that if everyone considered everything, there is little or no difference in the past, and a much better chance for Henne to be better in the future. JMO

 

I see key differences in Orton's favor when I watch him on tape.

 

I saw Orton play but never really watched him. What differences did you see, and are they correctable with experience and coaching?

 

If you are saying Miami's WRs as a group were better than Denver's, either all 5 or the top 3, I would not agree with that. JMO.

 

It's kind of difficult to get hold of just because it depends on the game. Like I said, you watch one game of Orton's and you love him, you watch another and you're like...why do I want this guy again? The biggest differences are in the accuracy of the ball he throws, and the quality and quickness of his reads. But that's when he's having a good game. I'd say he has more good games than bad, just the bad ones do show up if you watch them all.

When I say accuracy I mean ball placement when a receiver is moving left to right or right to left over the middle of the field, or getting the ball over the outside shoulder when throwing to the perimeter of the field, or throwing the ball in a place where the receiver can run under it vertically. Those are just superior traits for Orton compared with Henne, in my opinion. He can show that kind of placement more often than I see it out of Henne. What Orton will do multiple times a game, which kind of shows both the accuracy as well as the quickness of thought, is manipulate the placement of the ball to leave the defender reacting too slowly to the chemistry between QB and WR. What was disappointing about the WRs unit in Denver from what I saw, is that some of those guys just weren't capable of being on the same page as Orton that way. Other better players are much better at it, guys like Hartline, Bess and Marshall. You can throw them open and they're very smart players so they'll adjust especially if you practice it and get chemistry. I saw practically no adjustment/chemistry from Eddie Royal, marginal ability that way with Jabbar Gaffney and BeBe Thomas, and pretty decent adjustment from Brandon Lloyd. Also, he throws with better touch than Chad Henne and this helps make the receivers look a little better, a more catchable ball. It also helps you challenge the defense on a wider variety of routes. Henne's made some improvement in this area over his three years but he's not where Orton is.

Keep in mind I've not generally had much issue with Henne's accuracy. I've defended his accuracy plenty of times. He places a high percentage of his passes in position for the WR to either catch it or have it go off his hands, very consistent that wya too. But the placement of the ball dictates a lot of whether it gets caught or not, or if it gets some run after catch. I think a lot of the traits you see in the Miami offense are built off Henne's shortcomings in that area. You see a lot of people complain about certain issues on the offense and indeed I think there were a LOT of things missing that should have been there, but at the same time I think they took that stuff out of it because they don't have confidence based on what they've seen in practice that Henne can run that stuff. We'll see.

The decisions also come quicker with Orton, and that helps with RAC. You notice that the Broncos as a whole had 5.6 yards after the catch this year, and that's without Brandon Marshall who is a RAC player. In 2009 they had 5.5 yards of RAC per catch. Pennington did achieve 4.8 yards of RAC per catch in 2008 with guys like Ted Ginn, Greg Camarillo, a rookie Davone Bess, a David Martin that was about to drop off the face of the earth, etc. When Henne took over in 2009 he had basically the same players except they were all a year more advanced, the RAC dropped immediately to 4.2 yards per catch. Then this year, even with the addition of Brandon Marshall who has always been one of the best RAC players in the game, and Davone Bess peaking in his third year, Brian Hartline now in his second year, Anthony Fasano really coming into his own, etc...we're still talking lower RAC (4.7) than Pennington had with much poorer receiving options, and of course a lot lower than Orton has achieved in Denver both with and without Brandon Marshall. Marshall only pulling in 2.8 yards of RAC per catch, with his tackle-breaking ability, size and athleticism...that's kind of absurd.

So you look at Kyle Orton's decision making and you see there's an extra fraction of a second he gives his receivers because he's getting the ball out with better timing. This along with the ball placement provides RAC even though he's throwing to the likes of Brandon Lloyd, Jabbar Gaffney and Eddie Royal. You can also see that same quickness of thought and decision-making when he drops back and feels the defensive line/pass rushers part wide while everyone is turning their back to him in coverage, and he just makes a very quick and timely decision to hoof it forward for some yardage. The guy is really a pretty pathetic runner athletically but you wouldn't know it from his 7.6 yards per scramble and watching what he did as a runner against man cover teams like the Jets and Raiders. He ran for first downs. It's like watching a dog get up and play the piano, but the success of it shows the quickness of his thought process on the field.

Now, I'm not saying Orton is better than Henne all the way around, at everything. I very much believe he's worse than Henne at dealing with pressure. If you've taken away his receiving options and put him up for the pass rushers to feast on, he'll get feasted on. The scrambles where he gains yardage are different, they're actually like a read. He's just reading the field on his drop, sees the defensive line part like the red sea, sees guys turning their back to him in man, and something clicks in his brain and he runs for it. But if he's setting up to pass and gets caught not being able to throw it to his guy, and someone starts giving him chase, he's really very, very poor in those situations. I don't think he can make an accurate throw on the run to save his life. He doesn't have a good enough arm to really challenge a defense when they force him out of the pocket. If this happens, the best you hope for is a throwaway. And also, you know I really have to hand something to Henne his pre-snap reads and decision making may be a little up and down but his throwing is not. That's just one more reason why the term "robot" fits him so well. Orton's throwing is not consistent. He can have bad days, for sure...and on those days you need everyone around him from defense to runners to receivers, to really bail him out.

In my experience the inconsistency is something that can come along though. You see guys that have like 1 out of 2 bad days go to 1 out of 4, etc. There's a consistency to Chad Henne's sub-mediocrity that bothers me a lot.

I just don't know that Kyle Orton is ever going to be one of the great QBs in this game, those top 12 type guys...and I want to keep trying until you find one of those guys. That's how you build championships. That's how you build dynasties. If we have to give up our ability to find one of those types in the 2012 Draft in order to get Kyle Orton...I just don't know that I can get with that. That's what the 2nd round pick symbolizes to me. The pick itself I don't care about. Could be another Koa Misi but first off how good exactly IS Koa Misi, and secondly yeah but it could also be Phil Merling (fail horn) or Pat White (double fail horn). All I know is whenever anyone talks about this year's Draft and the inability to manipulate the Draft and get a quarterback they liked, the missing 2nd round pick always gets brought up. Always. And if giving that up again means the same thing is going to happen next year, I want no part of it.

 

Very nice run down CK, and have to agree with your analysis. I do think that experience may tilt the scales back to even or, even in Henne's favor but, that is yet to be proven and may never be. We shall see.

Regardless, I am not giving up a high pick for something we may already have, and who may be better. I don't see it as a franchise changing move. If Henne falters, I much prefer to roll the dice in next year's draft.

 

I agree with you on all main points the only issue is, to me he's never going to be one of those top level QBs and the position is so important I think a team should keep trying to find one of those guys that can make the plays that others can't, until they find him. If you can get Orton for maybe a 3rd rounder plus a player (god only knows I'd unload Phil Merling in half a second), then OK...long as you've still got a commitment to trying to get that QB in the 2012 Draft, be it Barkley or maybe Lindley, Tannehill, Landry Jones or Brandon Weeden.

 

I do think we win more games with Kyle Orton than Chad Henne.

 

Which is the most overused, tired and irrelevant excuse imaginable when it comes to not taking a chance on a QB in the Draft.

You're NEVER going to find a sure thing. Ever. Ever ever ever ever ever.

But the only way to be 100% certain of failure, is not to try.

As for these QBs versus Josh Freeman, I see six quarterbacks that could be Josh Freeman. Or they could be Josh Swogger. There's always an element of chance. But being afraid of greatness never made anyone great.

 

It doesn't have to be that way. People think like that and I don't get it. If you're doing your job surrounding the guy with talent and also bringing in quality quarterbacks to play behind or even ahead of the guy, then you're in the SAME BOAT as you would be if you didn't have him.

I don't get your line of thinking. It's a popular one, but I think it's irrational.

 

If Orton is as good as you think, we wouldn't the Broncos just keep him and extend his contract? Tebow isn't a sure thing to be as good a QB, at least yet.

 

there are no trade do overs either and if a team trades for a QB and he does a Feeley or a Culpepper you are just as screwed as with the draft pick bombing, right?

 

Our history post-Marino suggests you are correct in this. Let's not forget that Orton has been traded once already, then had his team pick a QB in round 1, and had his GM (Elway) making comments to suggest it was a position they were still looking at.

Orton is fool's gold, a guy that looks good if he is on your fantasy team, but not quite so good on your real team. At best you are hoping he won't be a liability to your team. I don't think he has shown anything that would make you think "Orton, he is the final missing piece to take us to the Super Bowl."

As for drafting a QB, it's about reaching for greatness instead of settling for average. If you miss, then you try again. San Diego is the perfect example of this. Possibly the biggest bust ever in Leaf, then several up in the air years with Brees, then finally they got Rivers who gives them a shot to win every game. The Jests went the Vet option for years and flubbed. Bring in a rookie and they are going to back to back Conference Championships. The Rams had what, a 6 win differential with Bradford under center? Draft QB until you find your guy and then ride him for a decade or more. Stop trying to band-aid your situation by bringing in average vets left and right thinking they will be your savior.

 

Excellent point. Which is why I've said Orton only comes here to be the SUREFIRE starter. No competition, no camp battle, no controversy. Imagine Ireland having to explain why he spent draft picks and 9 millies on a backup QB. LMAO. Not happening.

 

Tebow's salary for 2011 is $1,618,750

 

Any trade for Orton by any team would IMO hinge on his signing a new contract at the time of the trade. No team would give up a 2nd for a 1 yr rental of a QB at 8mill plus, especially for one who is moderately above average at best.