http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3772_Monday_Morning_Waterboy:_quantifying_INTs.html I really like this study. It's incomplete by their own admission, as it doesn't include defensive cost for the interceptions. For instance, the overwhelming majority of Henne's interceptions have been thrown on his own side of the field. That's what helps keep his offensive costs low (1.0 expected points taken off the board per interception). But at the same time, it should keep his defensive costs high (i.e. the defense let up points because of all the interceptions). But it also kind of highlights something that I've been trying to say which is that the interceptions are far overrated in the analysis of why Chad Henne was insufficient in 2010. You could dial him down to 10 interceptions, giving him an 83.0 QB Rating, and he still would not have been a good starting quarterback. According to the study, taking 9 interceptions away from Henne would have only put 9 more points on the scoreboard, taking us from a #30 offensive ranking to a #29 offensive ranking. That's still not cutting it. But on the other hand it would be interesting to see CHFF turn this around to the defenses and see what the defenses took off the board and likewise spotted to their offense with the turnovers they created. This was one area of inefficiency for the Dolphins...they were one of the worst in the league in creating defensive turnovers. If they had created more, the Dolphins' offense would have scored more...giving Henne more chances at throwing touchdowns (which would improve his stats) and raising the offense's scoring effectiveness, which would lead to higher opinions of Henne.
Well CK, to me you make an inadvertent point, even "if" Henne chopped off 4 int's to get down to 10, "he would not be a good Qb". The point is, the offense as a whole, "if" the running game were even approximately what we had in 09 the offense would have been greatly improved even with Henne throwing less int's then td's, the manicial focus on the Dolphins Qb play is mostly misplaced. Collapse of the running game and the loss of 14 td's had far more of a statistical effect on our W/L record.
I think the problem is that he didn't make enough plays. His INT total isn't necessarily troublesome on its own, but when paired with very few big plays, its not good.
This is something I see here, too. The hate for Henne is so much greater than it is for Ronnie, Ricky, and the OL. The offense as a whole was a disaster last year.
They really need to complete their study. This is interesting. IIRC, didnt Henne throw most of his interceptions between his own 10 and midfield?
Miami gained 3.7 yards per carry. Teams like Baltimore, Atlanta, Indianapolis and Green Bay gained only 3.8 yards per carry. I don't see anyone complaining about their offenses being among the very worst in the league.
Between his own 20 and midfield, yes. Both in 2009 and 2010. Anyway there's no denying that the primary differences in offensive efficiency were related to the dropoff in the ground game's effectiveness. But that in itself is a problem. Henne should have gotten better, not stayed the same, especially with Brandon Marshall here to catch 86 passes in 14 games.
What similar OL? There have been changes every year and Ricky and Ronnie are both worn and torn. It wasn't any singular player's fault. When were we getting those 3.7 yards? On 3rd and 10? The play selection was crap all last year.
I'm pretty sure that Henne's red zone numbers weren't all that bad. By that I mean he didn't throw an inordinate amount of picks in the red zone or anything.
Yes, but many complain that we took the ball out of his hands too often. One could logically conclude that he didn't throw a lot of picks in the red zone because of this.
True, especially down the field, however the statistical neutrality of Henne's int's means something else was missing. Mainly the over 4 ypc/14 td's (or was it 17?) that went missing, 14 x 7=98 pts divided by 16 games 5.5 pts a game (or so) inow, wins vs the Browns and Bills and Stealers, we also lost 2 other games (first Jets, Lions) by a Td. Imho, statistically speaking the reasons for 7-9 are plain as day, no points from the running game, 28 pts given up on ST, and about 5 td's short in the passing game. 98 pts from the ground, 35 pts through the air, and (+28 pts not surrendered on Returns)=161 more points I say 5 Td's short in the passing game as imho a starting nfl Qb should be worth at least slightly more then 1 Td per game ie 20 Td's.
Ray Rice had 4.0 ypc but 1220 yards. Michael Turner had 4.1 ypc but 1,371 yds and 12 TD's YPC does not show how good the running game is and for you to even pretend like it does is disingenuous to prove a point. And to even pretend like 4 teams is some sort of rule. Your sample size is now 2 out of 32 teams.
As I've read you pointing out, in yr #2 as a starter typically it is a game of adjustments, the Defenses have a book on the Qb, the Qb has to adjust their game, not losing ground is not a huge loss in the big picture, however fair to say we both saw things from Henne that would cause us to think Henne was succeeding mostly due to the talent on offense, not his own ability, Henne was not making anyone better in 2010.
I don't think we would have saw a lot more picks if he threw it more, but based on how he did in the RZ I don't know that we would've seen a lot more TDs either.
The Packers' starting RBs (Brandon Jackson, John Kuhn, Dmitri Nance and James Starks) averaged 3.5 yards per carry on 1st & 2nd down. The Ravens' starting RBs (Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, Le'Ron McClain) gained 3.9 yards per carry on 1st & 2nd down. The Colts' starting RBs (Donald Brown, Joseph Addai, Mike Hart, Dominic Rhodes and Javarris James) gained 4.0 yards per carry on 1st & 2nd down. The Falcons' starting RBs (Michael Turner, Jason Snelling) gained 4.1 yards per carry on 1st & 2nd down.
Fair point. His 4.3% interception rate in the red zone suggests that if he'd been given the ball more in the red zone, he'd have thrown more interceptions...true indeed. Although, his 20.7% touchdown rate in the red zone suggests that he'd also have thrown more touchdowns and it wouldn't have mattered. Chad Henne needed to get his team INTO the red zone, with 1st downs...then he gets to collect on his (mediocre) red zone production.
Ricky and Ronnie averaged 3.9 yards per carry together and 4.0 yards per carry on 1st/2nd down. Who exactly is being disingenuous to prove a point?
You're right. But not GAINING ground is a bad thing when you didn't play very well in the first place. That's what I'm trying to hammer into peoples' skulls. If you look over the QBs out there that are all good franchise starters, the overwhelming majority of them showed significantly more than Chad Henne has by this point in their careers. Did Chad Henne manage to keep his effectiveness the same even though defenses made their move and caught up to him? Yeah. With the help of the addition of one of the best WRs in the game. But is "the same" good enough in this league? Not even close. When you consider that he got worse as the season progressed, with pitiful performances at the beginning of the year against stout defenses like the Patriots and Ravens turning into pitiful performances at the end of the year against the likes of the Lions and Browns...that's an uh oh.
Exactly, and that is what most are missing, it was not td throws per se, it was the ability to drive the offense into the redzone and then into the endzone via whatever means that was Henne's real failing in 2010. Which to me also means better running of the ball equals more production, but the thought of opponents perhaps run blitzing more often as being an issue is also something that would have to be looked at and afaik, is not a "stat'. Blitzes produce sacks, or pressures or disruptions, there is no metric for run blitzes that I'm aware of anyway, perhaps you know of one?
Why do you average the RB's together and not individually? Surely adding variables like amount of carries, 1 big run, and other factors will drag down or inflate some of these stats.
We would've seen more of both. But you need to get into the red zone if you want to get more red zone reps. As things stand, Henne with 48 reps in the red zone compared with Ronnie's 27 attempts, Ricky's 14 attempts, and Lousaka's 7 attempts...that split doesn't REALLY bother me. Does a 50/50 split in the red zone really bother you?
Why SHOULDN'T they be averaged together? Surely no matter what more piece of evidence I come up with to support my opinions, you will come up with some other inconsequential/insignificant question or permutation that makes it seem like you have anything valuable to say about the subject at all.
You? I posted their overall YPC numbers, but I also posted their total stats. You're pretending like OC's looked at Atlanta last year and said don't worry about that Michael Turner, he's only gaining 4 YPC. But hey, Henne had a QB rating on 3rd and 1-7 didn't he?
Incidentally Brandon Marshall got targeted 14 times in the red zone on Henne's and Thigpen's 47 throws (30%). That's kind of in line with his percentages for the full year (26%). I think Brandon would probably argue that he should have been targeted more often than normal in the red zone. But then, I'm sure he received more attention than normal in the red zone.
And you're similarly acting like defensive coordinators said don't worry about that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combo, they didn't just lead one of the most effective rushing attacks in the NFL in 2009...that's purely genuine. Forgive me while I roll my eyes.
Couldn't you also give the benefit of the doubt to the young guy who's still developing instead of the long time vet who's already maxed out his capabilities? Like him or hate him, but I think Henne has a much better chance of improving his game over the next couple years than Ronnie or Ricky.
He'll only get half of a season to prove himself. Other than that, and he could do it, but if he doesn't, he'll be learning somewhere else or on the bench
No? Plenty of Miami fans badmouthed both Mike Mularkey AND Cam Cameron for their offensive philosophies and tendencies when they were here. They go elsewhere and get better quarterbacks and suddenly even the Miami fans are praising them again.
Blitzes also leave your secondary at a disadvantage and makes the defense more susceptible to the big play, whether it be a draw, screen, bomb, whatever. Our offense from 08-10 was designed to discourage the blitz, that was Henning's philosophy. Strong run game, short-intermediate pass game, stay out long yardage, convert on third down, etc. It's not a bad philosophy, especially w/ a young QB, but when the running game wasn't going and teams could sit on our short-intermediate game, things tended to get ugly. I'm hoping we'll be more aggressive this year. Bite the bullet, invite the blitz, and trust Henne to make quicker decisions. We have a couple guys (Bess-Marshall) who can shake coverage quickly and/or beat 1 on 1 consistently, and hopefully we'll add another RB who can serve as a check down threat in FA. The return of the run game should also create more favorable matchups, if it returns that is.
Guilty as sin !!! Although I did like when Mularkey was hired, I wanted to ring his neck once he could not get the offense going while here. I did like Cam as an OC though. Always have but yeah, I'm guilty
