I've been saying that for a while, the absolute worst thing that has happened was 11-5 in '08. If we had gone 4-12, our drafts would have been different and maybe our luck in our rebuild. Natural progression is the best way to go. Does anyone have access to the April 2009 draft order ? Where would we have been had we gone 4-12 in 2008? Who would have been available ?
Like Seattle last year, what a terrible year for a rebuilding team. And going 4-12 would have got us pick 4 through 7 in 2009 draft.
Hmm, I think there was a huge philosophical gap at the top Deej, between Tuna and Irish, and here is why: If one actually studies Tuna's rebuilds in New England, NYJ, and Dallas, one sees two distinct approaches: -In Dallas and New England, they MOSTLY used the draft to succeed, in Dallas Jerruh had a huge hand in the makeup by signing TO, otherwise both teams were largely made up of Draftees and Cast offs and low level FA signings. in NYJ, totally different story, Tuna went overboard signing FA's everyone from Vinny Testaverde to Bryan Cox, they did make the AFC title game, then went 8-8 and Tuna ghosted out of NY leaving Al Groh after Belicheck pulled the parachute cord, he did leave Mike Tannenbaum in place, but the team fell apart and was in Cap Purgatory afterwards/ I suspect Tuna wanted a NJY 1997-00 Redux, Ireland did not, that is why we see such a huge gap between low level FA signings that paid off, then a jettisoning of high priced FA's as soon as Tuna had effectively left the Franchise. Recall in 09 we had the #2 payroll in the entire league? in 10 the decks were cleared and Dansby was signed but Marshall traded for? Both solid moves without the injury questions Smiley and Grove had heading into 09, to me that screams "Ireland ran things in 2010 and 2011", that is one of the reasons why I'm confident we will do fine this offseason, Tuna the half assed GM was just not very good at his job and let relationships with old colleagues color his judgment..ie..Pat White. Which is why if Vince Young winds up in Miami, we are not going to overpay him, Irish just will not do that, not in his nature. I can recall when Ross's Big Adventure was ongoing, the players on twitter liked Sparano, did not like Ireland and they did not so much come out and say it, but they made it known...
Was unaware of that. What capacity was he? As I recall Terry Bradway was their GM prior to Mangini, and might have even been there into Mangini's tenure.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Tannenbaum Same yr as Parcells. As I've said R4, Jeff Ireland is probably more of a Karl Peterson in terms of philosophy and approach as he is a "parcells guy", the two make alot of the same sort of moves. The early 90's KC Teams, with lots of #1 or #2 pick olinemen, strong running game, is what this team reminds me of very much, think of Wake as D Thomas and Starks as Neil Smith, or Odie.
Like Southbeach said, 11-5 was the worst thing to happen for us. Strength of schedule, spent more money on FA's then any team the last few years because building through the draft is a slow process and that 11-5 season heaped more expectations for this team then they were ready for and we needed players. I wouldnt mind Cowher at all but I do think Ireland is a good GM. Good enough to win with probably. With Cowher you will lose that certainty that we know Ireland will draft well and stock us with good young talent. Cowher has said he will want his own guy in the GM role/player personnel. We have had our disagreements about Henne and whatever happens will happen. IMO though if we go 7-9 or 8-8 and it falls on the QB play just trade the whole draft for Luck or Barkley and let the other chips fall where they will
As for this years FA...I agree we need to strike quick and early. Be aggressive with getting good players because with teams like Tampa and Carolina having possibly 50-60M in cap space well they are gonna get some seriously good players. My priority list would read like this: One from DeAngelo Williams or Ahmad Bradshaw One from Santonio Holmes or Sidney Rice One from Manny Lawson, Travis LaBoy, Antwan Barnes One from Hasselbeck or Bulger Joey Haynos or some other good blocking TE/red zone type target If we get an Eric Weddle thats a sick bonus. UDFA: Herzlich!, DeAndre McDaniel. Id look at ways to stock up draft picks. One way to do so might be to sign a guy like Weddle and see if we couldnt get a 3rd or 4th for Bell. We have SS24, VD, Sapp, Will Allen, and Nolan Carroll at CB. No way all 5 will be here imo unless Allen gets moved to FS. Could probably get a 5th for either Allen or Sapp. In other words we may have to find ways to make moves from a position of strength.
I don't think that's a bad thing, Ireland got us to a certain point. Like CK said I don't think Cowher/New GM comes in and blows up the team. They'll make a few tweaks that will put us over the top. They run the defense of choice already so no transition needed there. The only real casualty of Cowher coming would be Nolan, but he's as good as gone next year anyways.
I disagree. I think this staff has a longer leash then you and some others may want it to have. Ireland has no better or worse a resume then anyone Cowher could bring in short of a major player which I am sure Cowher will not want since he himself is a major player. Ireland did the grunt work getting us out of a 1-15 hole, he deserves to reap the reward and see this through.
The picks inbetween the 4th and our pick at 25 - some notables - Brian Orakpo at 13 (Washington), Josh Freeman at 17 (Tampa), and Percy Harvin at 22 (Vikings).....of course there is Clay Matthews that was picked at 26, right after our pick. At this point would you rather have Matthews or Vontae Davis ? I know who I'd rather have.....Oh well
Listen to the universe, Ireland...It's trying to tell you something. [video=youtube;-1pKow9hdlY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1pKow9hdlY[/video]
The picks inbetween the 4th and our pick at 25 - some notables - Brian Orakpo at 13 (Washington), Josh Freeman at 17 (Tampa), and Percy Harvin at 22 (Vikings).....of course there is Clay Matthews that was picked at 26, right after our pick. At this point would you rather have Matthews or Vontae Davis ? I know who I'd rather have.....Oh well
IMO yes. Sparano is the one in more danger and I don't even think he is in as much danger as some people think. Even after this offseason. Happen to be a fan of both to be honest. The guy really playing for his NFL future is Chad Henne. If he can't swim then this team will stay stuck in mediocrity. If this team stays stuck in mediocrity well then that's where the guys in your sig come in to play
Same here, fans of both, think Ireland is the best GM in the AFCE. Also somewhat certain they will not bet the season on Chad Henne and it would not surprise me if 2 Qb's are brought in, like maybe Bulger and Stanton, or Gradkowski and Moore. My real darkhorse is Dennis Dixon.
But a failure of Henne I believe means the end of both Sparano & Ireland. That will be 4 full seasons and they still couldn't get the QB situation right. That is way more than enough time. If I am Ross I can't let them have a 5th draft to maybe screw that up yet again. Remember each year the Dolphins remain mired in mediocrity costs Ross millions in lost ticket sales, concessions sales, parking fees, and especially in NFL clothing sales. A star QB and he is selling thousands more jerseys, which means millions of dollars. Ross invested $ 1 billion into buying the Dolphins, by year 3 or 4 you expect to be making some of that investment back.
Not sure yet that I would take JI over the Pats front office but I do think he can build a championship caliber team. I am also certain that henne is the guy all the way. They simply have no other choices. Matt Hasselback is about the only guy who wont cost significant draft pick compensation that could do a comparable job and he has too many health issues and not nearly the arm strength. Henne has never had a year with full support of the locker room where there was some other option. Now there will be no other option and its sink or swim for Henne. Id be stunned if they brought in anything more then a Matt Moore type to compete for the starting gig or a true back up like a Bulger
When you are dealing with a 4 year rebuild starting from scratch its a 4 year project imo regardless. I said it was a 4 year rebuild when Parcells was hired. Nothing changed for me. 4 years = 28 picks (7 per year) = 14 position filled if they double up at positions which they always do. That is 28 of 53 roster spots filed with no wiggle room to miss on a single pick. Figure 1 UDFA makes it every other year so that puts us 30 roster spots. You have 3 guys left still from prior regimes in Bell Carey and Allen = 33 roster spots. That's 20 positions you have to fill at a reasonable rate of 5 per year in FA or trade. To be honest that pretty much how I rationalized it from the beginning because I felt the only 3 players we could win with from the Cameron years were Allen, Carey and Bell as I kinda figured Ronnie and Ricky wouldn't make it til the end of this regime. If Ross fires them hes making a completely irrational decision unless its done on the basis of fact that Sparano messed up or there is some kind of significant controversy. IMO Sparano is in more danger then Ireland as what hasnt Ireland done? His only miss of significance has been Henne, White, Merling and Odrick on early picks and those guys have not been awful and the jury is still out on at least Henne and Odrick...Henne has shown flashes at the very least, Merling has been a contributor and even though you want more from that high a pick, hes still quality depth and Odrick was hurt unfortunately. Ireland will almost certainly get another opportunity to draft a QB for us. Hes done everything else well enough to have earned it.
my whole offseason in defense of this regime is perfectly summarized in this post...Makes a lot of freakin sense, and at the same time incense's me that it is the minority opinion.. I hope so hard that Irish nails 2 or 3 nice free agents and this team rally's around their coach and say's FU%$ YOU to most of their fanbase who are undesrvedly sh^%ing on this team without giving them a proper time frame from a rebuild that was as monumental as ours was. It was always, on the record, since the day Parcells took the job, a 4 year plan.
But you have to show improvement in the most important part of the game: Winning. If any team has 3 straight 7-9 seasons, nobody should be safe(Even the Pats). It's almost just as irrational to keep them. I understand keeping Ireland but if you have to oust him to get the coach that get's you to next level, so be it.
If it's a 4 year plan DJ, then we should be in the Super Bowl this year. Instead, we'll probably be farting around the 8-8 range. Then what? The pateince brigade will be out again in force next year. The time has come for results. And I'm not talking about going 9-7. This team should win a playoff game or two if their rebuild has been so great. If they don't, sayonara. John Mara said he believes if you don't make the playoffs 3 straight years in this league then you're fair game to get fired. Well, let's see what happens. I can't understand the irrational excitement and the typical fan overating of players. This remains a mediocre team.
I do see your point on all the money having to be spent by teams, and it is a good one. I believe it's going to come down to positions. For example, TE and a pass rushing OLB are both in high demand, and there's little available VG talent. Agents can bide their time while looking for the best deal. Then we have OGs and safeties which are very deep in VG talent, and they should be bargains. RBs look to be somewhere in the middle, and QBs are a roll of the dice. On top of the 450 FAs, signing your own players, RFAs, and the undrafted rookies, there is going to be a lot of players cut in cap moves, and after FAs are signed. They may not be stars but, filling in special teams is also a priority. It's going to be a very special time for fans trying to keep up with everything, as well as teams.
I agree that this is the year for results. "All The Young Dudes" need to show they can win, and it has to be this year. I believe that they will, without over-rating the players. As a group, our 3-4 DL is the best in the game. Our LBs and CBs are top 5, and our safeties are suspect. If we add a player or, maybe two, we can be the best D in the league. On O, the OL is no where near as bad as some believe, the RBs were. If we can run, I can see us winning a playoff game. JMO
If we go 7-9 or 8-8 you can kiss Luck goodbye. It's just out of our price range. Not because we wouldn't want to spend the amount, but because we just don't have it. It would take more than an entire draft. The guy is the second coming of Peyton Manning, in everyone's eyes. And the first coming of Peyton Manning has made the second coming of Peyton Manning a lot more expensive than the first coming of Peyton Manning was, if that makes sense. Personally, I don't think going 11-5 was a bad thing. I really don't. It bought the regime credibility and clout, and that's a very good thing. If they've squandered that credibility two years later, that's on them. I suppose that a worse 2008 record would have led to better 2009 Draft position...but I'm not really unhappy with getting Vontae Davis in that Draft, and you know we wouldn't have taken Josh Freeman after just having taken Chad Henne in the 2nd round the year prior. Based on everything I've seen, Jeff Ireland would not have signed off on that. The only way that I could buy that 11-5 was a bad thing would be if you are convinced that we should have made a coaching change this off season. Did we say no to Jim Harbaugh? Or did Jim Harbaugh say no to us? Or both? I think Harbaugh was the only coach that took a job this off season that made me really jealous. Bill Cowher told us no, said that he wanted another year off and wanted to see the CBA thing shake out. I have mixed feelings about Jon Gruden especially given his asking price. Do I think Jeff Ireland is a good college talent evaluator? Yes. Do I think he knows what he's doing as a GM? I'm not sure. I really don't like their record in veteran personnel, their decision-making that way. Maybe they knock this free agency out of the park and change my mind. That'd be nice. But he also lacks the proper respect for the quarterback position in this league, and the opportunities that getting a franchise quarterback in the Draft can afford you for the next 10 years. That's not surprising, if you think about Bill Parcells' track record. As of right now I would have to say my personal feeling is that Jeff Ireland would make a good Director of College Scouting...to be paired up with a good Director of Pro Scouting underneath a General Manager that has more vision and professionalism.
CK let me ask you this.....there are times, especially more recently, where FANS, even on this specific message board, were claimoring for guys like Santonio Holmes, Lagarret Blount, Earl Thomas, Aaron Hernandez......and the Dolphins passed on all of those guys. They have all done well at the various teams that HAVE taken the chance on them. There is no way, fans are more knwledgable than the Miami Dolphins front office, now I know we got some smart guys and gals here.....but are the Dolphins brass just over thinking stuff ?! If Mallet comes out and dominates for 15 years (after brady or on another team of course) and Daniel Thomas is "a good running back"....won't that be ANOTHER blunder on their record? I just picture Ireland sitting in the office saying "Id love Mallett here.....but the fans are all for that....fans cant know what they are talking about.....I'll take Daniel Thomas.....yeah....that'll show them"
Our DL is very good. Best in the game? I don't buy that without knowing that soliai is going to continue playing at a high level. Our LB;s are good, not great, and no way our corner tandem is top 5 when they don't force turnovers and still give up big plays. Our defense is good, but I'm not about to overrate them just because I'm a fan.
Although my opinion is involved, guys who grade players for a living agree. Can you name 5 better groups of LBs and CB's? Then I may agree on over-rating my Phins.
Keep in mind though B14, Daboll did well with McCoy and his 53% completion rate as a rookie, mainly by using his mobilty so effectively which causes me to think the "competition for Henne" one of them, will be highly mobile as a default position. -Young -Gradkowski -Stanton -Dixon -T Jackson
LB's: GB, Pitt, Baltimore off the top of my head. CB's I'd have to think about but the fact is they didn't generate any turnovers to speak of and our nickel/dime guys were below average, although Carroll has promise. We started Jason Allen for the first part of the season for goodness sake (and he had the most INT's of any of them) Smith and Vontae are good, they have a ways to go to be great.
Ya have to keep in mind that's always the case. We also clamored for Brady Quinn, Manny Lawson, Bobby Carpenter, Cadillac Williams, etc. And if you prefer names that just happened on this regime's watch, there's Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey, Jerry Hughes, etc. I don't know if I'd characterize anything as "overthinking"...just seems something that's really too vague, malleable. Bad decisions end up bad decisions and that's really all there is to it. You're damn right it would be. But if Mallett is never heard from again and Daniel Thomas is a solid runner his whole career they deserve credit. LOL. If I had to point out any trends in their decision-making it would be three things: 1. Too much emphasis on the lines, particularly offensive line. It's like they've taken Parcells' philosophies and adopted them for their own, but not quite understood them enough to keep them in proper context, and so they've turned those philosophies into characatures of themselves. 2. Believing that the quarterback position is just one of many key positions. They don't haveproper appreciation for the fact that a franchise quarterback, rather than the offensive and defensive lines, is the TRUE bedrock of a team's success for long periods of time. I would say that they've also been overly conservative in their thinking, but let's face it...spending three 2nd rounders on Pat White and Brandon Marshall is anything but conservative! A conservative management team doesn't pay gobs of money to guys with as significant injury risks as Justin Smiley and Jake Grove walked in with, or a guy with as significant character risks as Brandon Marshall. They made Marshall either the highest paid or second highest paid receiver in the league, after they traded a 1st round equivalent for him. They've taken some chances. The biggest mistake of conservatism they made was in 2008 taking Jake Long over Matt Ryan. But, that goes back to their thinking that the quarterback position is just one among many key positions, left tackle being another. I know the propaganda machines rolled out with the hype that a 1-15 "couldn't afford to take chances" with that #1 pick in the Draft. I get a giggle out of that one, because of how counter-intuitive it is. If a 1-15 team can't afford to take chances, who can? Does a team that is down three touchdowns in the 4th quarter call plays conservatively because they can't afford to take chances? Who IS afforded the ability to take chances? I think pretty much just the Patriots, and that's only because they have an embarrassment of draft picks every year, due to their longstanding wisdom in trading present picks for better future ones. Otherwise, if you're a team that is a playoff team but didn't win the Super Bowl, how can you afford to take chances? You know the fans would never sign off on that. They'd bring out all the "window is closing" arguments and talk about how we need to draft people that will make a difference immediately, etc. They always say that, regardless of circumstance. But I know that Bill Parcells wrestled with and lost sleep over the question of Jake Long versus Matt Ryan...and in the end, he let conservatism get the best of him and made the wrong decision. But when Jeff Ireland fiercely defends the decision...I get the feeling that he really believes it, he's not just saying it because that's what he needs to say in public. That's a problem because it reflects something that can also be viewed in a lot of Ireland's other decisions. Whatever happens will happen and hindsight will be 20/20 of course and so it's probably not worth getting into heavy debate over, nobody will remember anything long enough for "I told ya so's" anyway.
For the record I think that a LOT of teams were guilty of over-thinking Santonio Holmes' availability for a 5th round pick. The fact that the Jets were the only ones that came calling, a lot of teams should be embarrassed by that I think.
The way I see it, think of a mid priced Vet Qb who can run waggles and rollouts with a credible run/pass option threat.
You mean putting their NFL careers on the line, not their lives...These men have some kind of an education that they won't be indigent simply because they didn't make it in the NFL. I agree that Cam-Cam was not ready to lead an NFL franchise but these men are not going to die simply because they either didn't have the leadership or the talent necessary to make All Pro and certainly, they can carve out a nice living for the time they are able to play even if they never hit the big FA pay day and are relegated to 2nd tier players....and after their playing careers are over, why should they feel they should have made enough during their careers to not ever have to work again ?? Back on topic, this is probably the most difficult FA ever for GM's and players alike. The likely time crunch of the FA period, the need (probably, pending the exact letter of the CBA in that regard) for teams to spend more than normal in FA, the time crunch for the teams to get the organization ready for the preseason and eventually the season, the dependency of most teams to 'fill in the gaps' in talent from the draft, which is in stark contrast to any other year in recent memory and other factors make this an extremely challenging period of time for every GM. Players will see more "take it or leave it" propositions, the physical time crunch of FA period that is normally a several month event...there's a lot of pressure on both sides, however, they mutually caused this crunch to begin with...so now they have to pick up the pieces and make it happen. If a player loses some money or a GM doesn't get the best talent during the abbreviated FA...tough luck...at least from a fed up fan's perspective...
Right but put it in its proper context. We jumped from 1-15 to 11-5 by bringing in vets who Parcells and Ireland had some degree of familiar with and cleaning house. We then brought in rookies and younger players for the most part underneath those vets to learn and build this team. Its a time consuming process but one that immediately brought us credibility. Now if we go 7-9 again this year and its due to not having enough talent or misuse of the talent then yeah maybe Sparano and Ireland deserve the axe. But if we go 7-9 again this year and we lose say 4-5 games because the QB play is so bad it just loes games for us then do they deserve the axe then or should they be granted the opportunity to just draft a new QB? I think the talent is above mediocre and depending what we do in free agency I could see a scenario where we make a good run deep in to the playoffs. As has been beaten to death, its all going to depend on Henne and how much of a upgrade Daboll represents. If Henne takes a Brees-like step then we're in business. If he is worse then last season or the same as last season then we're up the creek without a paddle as they say. Im not sure I put Luck on Manning's scale, maybe Eli's but certainly not Peyton's. No one short of Peyton himself deserves that for one and secondly I actually have Barkley rated right along side Luck. Either way would work if Henne cant cut it this year. I loved the Vontae Davis pick as well. I remember very well who was for that pick and against it (and I was for it from day 1). But because of the speed at which the turnaround happened the expectations of the fanbase in my opinion went nuts. In fact that turnaround and then regression follows the same path it followed in Dallas under Parcells and in New England under Parcells. I dont think they have squandered anything, I just think many people are unable to accept that building a team from the ground up takes time unless you have a couple of major home runs in the draft instead of just doubles every year like we get (which is by no means bad). Do I think Ireland would have gone Freeman? Probably not. Might he have gone with Brian Orakpo at say pick 8 or 10 had we finished 5-11 that year? Probably and how would that have looked? Would he have gambled on Pat White? Probably not. Might we have gone with Jarius Byrd or Rey Maualuga being a few picks higher in the selection process? What we had was a quicker, more drastic turnaround then any team in NFL history. That will jade any fanbase when it cant maintain that success after achieving so much so soon. And thats exactly what happened to many fans in my opinion because they lost perspective of what happened, how it happened, and changed expectations so drastically instead of allowing for the progression of the team to take on its more natural course. You cant build a 53 man roster in 1-2 offseasons and starting from where we did, this was a major overhaul. To me all those guys are backups. Out of that list Stanton and Jackson would be best imo. Also Daboll didnt necessarily choose McCoy, he was drafted for him. His other options were Seneca Wallace and washed up Delhomme. anyone with a functional brain would go with McCoy on that list once they felt he was ready. The other two options are not so good to be honest lol