Kyle Orton is a good Quarterback. A good one, but most would agree by no means a great one. And yet he wants $10 million a year and a nice long term contract, the Broncos want a second round pick, and they also want to -dump Kyle Orton- and get a better starting QB. That would happen to be Tim Tebow, but why even bother to delve into that little nugget of irony. The Bears wanted to -dump Kyle Orton- and get a better QB. So they did, and have Jay Cutler. So this Quarterback, a soon to be two-time retread, is on the market. And some Dolphins fans on this site can't wait to once again play Dolphins Quarterback Derby and overpay in cash and draft picks for a good QB who is considered expendable by another team looking for a better Quarterback than he is. As Dolphins fans we've lived through, let's see how many failed QB trades: Sage Rosenfels acquired for a 7th rd pick- failed AJ Feeley acquired for a 2nd rd pick- failed Cleo Lemon acquired for AJ Feeley and a 7th rd pick- failed Trent Green acquired for a 5th rd pick- failed. (That pick could have been used on Carl Nicks) Daunte Culpepper acquired for a 2nd rd pick- failed on an epic, galactic scale. There were some interesting and rather gushing sentiments on either this site or perhaps finheaven regarding Culpepper as to the glory that would be his arrival and the mighty mountains that he would climb for us. I mean, these guys could hardly keep the semen in their pants. Uhh... then he hit the field. I saw him play live, against the Bills if I recall correctly. I would describe his performance as either pathetic or beyond pathetic. I feel sorry for Huizenga on this one- in hindsite he was right- Brees was the guy. The doctors talked him out of it and Brees lit it up in New Orleans while Culpepper limped and fizzled quietly away down here. So to those who are beating the drums for Orton now and gushed nearly uncontrollably for Culpepper back then- way to go, at least you're consistent in your Quarterback trading analysis and your desire to overpay for overrated QB's. Henne- we'll see what happens now that he has more weapons. He has a big arm and had: - the most pathetic WR crew in the league before the arrival of Brandon Marshall - the most pathetic WR crew in the league after Marshall was injured - below average WR speed to work with even after we got Marshall Personally, I think that Edmond Gates might turn out to be our Mike Wallace and the best draft pick we made this year. I'm very happy with the signing of Reggie Bush, as he brings elusiveness and escapability- as well as much need speed- to a lethargic Dolphins offense. The speed that Gates brings- as well as his shiftiness and suddenness- is just what the WR group needed, great to have him on board. Dude looks like he has pretty good hands, too. Matt Moore- not a huge arm, but I kind of like him. Accurate, quick release, has some escapability, nimble feet. Looks like he manages a game pretty well. Better that than blowing a 2nd on the retread Orton- and for the record, Orton is pretty good. But that's the problem- one team had already sent him packing and another is trying the same because that's what he is- pretty good. And if any franchise should know this, it's the Miami Dolphins: you don't pay a king's ransom or high draft picks for a "pretty good" Quarterback. That's what losers do. If it were a stud QB- different story. But it isn't. Personally, I would have loved to have Christian Ponder fall to us in the draft. It didn't happen. So we have Chad Henne and Matt Moore at QB going into this year, and not an overpriced, overrated, and-more than anything- overhyped Kyle Orton going into this year. And I'm ok with that. Kudos to the Dolphins on the trade that they didn't pull the trigger on- overpaying for an overrated Kyle Orton.
From David Hyde, Sun Sentinel: "The problem is Orton wanting a Kevin Kolb-like deal ($63 million - $21 million guaranteed - over five years from Arizona). You can understand that. Orton has thrown 41 touchdowns against 21 interceptions in starting the past two years. Kolb has started seven games. Why wouldn't Orton want a similar deal?" http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/spo...aveHyde-blog+(Dave+Hyde+|+Sun+Sentinel+blogs)
I agree with the basic sentiment. I have no reason to believe that Orton is the answer. I don't even have reason to believe he may be the answer. I saw the acquisition as nothing more than a move to mollify the fans. It was a "hey, we have a better QB, just look at his stats so buy tickets". But in reality fans have little understanding of offensive concepts and how they impact a QB's production so the result would most likely have been the same with Orton or Henne. If that result is bad (which I see as equally likely or unlikely with either QB) then we'll go into the draft with no realistic chance of trading up for a QB.
Well, Mike Shanahan might wake up one morning and notice that big yellow post it reading "#1 bring milk #2 be nice to Mr. Snyder #3 get a bloody starting QB" and realize that he totally forgot about one item.
Personally, I think Orton is not only a "good" quarterback, but is actually a "very good" quarterback. Worth over paying for a bit in my opinion. Bottom line, we need to win games, and frankly I'm sick of seeing garbage play out of our QB position. "Highly competent", which Orton is, would be a welcome relief.
Say what you will, but I saw Beck throw in TC and the guy can play. His size-or lack thereof- bothered me, but he's put some meat on his bones. Shannahan has obvioulsy seen something in him, and it's my belief that he got hosed in Miami. I believe that Beck will have a better year at QB than Orton this year. I will say this- If I were Shanahan I would have drafted Blaine Gabbert when I had the chance.
Denver paper says this 9.8. Plus the guarantee to be the starter. Sounds unsure of Himself to take the starter spot that's a red flag. I would jump on it if he was reasonable but he isn't enough of a uprade to demand that IF he really would be the upgrade. Elway has localy said he likes Brady more what do you think about that?
There's always that possibility. Drew brees worked out great for the Saints after the Chargers shoved him out the door to make room for Philip Rivers. You never know. But do i want to give up a 2nd round draft pick, or even a 3rd, and commit to over $10 million/year long term for Kyle Orton? No, I don't. If he were a FA gunning for $5 mil per year, that would sound about right.
You're entitled to your belief, but you should at least acknowledge that the two teams he's been on don't agree with you. Your opinion that he is a "very good" QB is a very minority opinion.
I'm not quite certain that the whole Broncos organization would necessarily disagree, though that naturally depends on your definition of "very good". Their problem, quite simply, is that they believe they have something even better than "very good", namely once in a lifetime special.
As I mentioned, I would overpay "a little". I.e., a 3rd rounder. Not a 2nd though. Might be willing to pay him though...we've certainly pissed away worse amounts of money since Ireland has been here...
Point taken, however I'm purely going off of the games I've watched him play in over the last 2 years. I was impressed each time, and he's a big upgrade over Henne in my opinion. I just don't think Henne's got it, and I'd rather watch "pretty good" play from our QB, than more of the same lumbering, slow-field-processing Henne, crudding up my TV screen on Sundays.
Great post Jim1, seems like everyone is on the "anyone but Henne" bandwagon (mostly driven by the South Florida writers)
I hope people understand that, if we went with Brees over Culpepper, he would have been sacked 3 billion times and forced into early retirement. In all likelihood, there was no right decision. There was, however, one that cost you a draft pick, and one that didn't. And the front office would be well served to remember this lesson when the consider a guy like Orton over a guy like Young or, two years previous, Vick. But that horse has left the barn now, it's over. Orton has completely outshined Tebow in practice, and ought to make any reasonable person in Denver rethink letting him go. Chances are good that we're gonna roll with Henne, Moore and Devlin.
I've watched both QBs play quite a bit and my feeling was different. I thought that Orton in Chicago was no better than Henne and the production supports that. If anything I thought Henne was the better QB after three seasons. When Orton went to Denver his production was vastly improved, but I didn't see him improving. What I saw was that the offensive scheme improved. You had an offense that created separation and provided easier decisions and easier throws. The Denver system provided a base of bread and butter plays that built and set up other plays. Alen calls that a "constraint system". That's not a term I was taught, but the concept is the same. For example, they used two man route combinations that provided an easy read and method of ball distribution for the QB. Some systems are just more QB friendly. That's why a guy like AJ Feely can look like a potential franchise guy in Andy Reid's system and look like he doesn't belong in the league in Miami's system. But as for Orton himself, I saw the same QB as in Chicago. He wasn't anymore accurate. He still struggled under pressure. He still made some bonehead decisions when he wasn't given the easy read. I see no reason to believe that Orton would have looked any different from his Chicago days had he been in Miami the last two years.
Trying to understand here---- why would you give up a 3rd rounder for a guy you'll be looking to replace as soon as the opportunity arises? People talk about Henne "not being good enough b/c he was a 2nd rounder" (which I disagree with) and say we instead need to use a 1st on a QB to ensure a franchise caliber guy. With that in mind, what does it say about Orton (who doesn't have much untapped potential left) if we were only willing to give up a 4th for him? What does it say about Orton when Kevin Kolb (whom many feel Henne is as equally talented as) was acquired for a 2nd rounder & a 1st round CB despite Kolb yet to prove anything in the league, while Orton commands nothing higher than a 3rd or 4th despite being a vet with 4 years of starting experience? Most if not all of the league view Orton as a guy they'll still be looking to replace....... b/c if they didn't feel that way, more teams would've been fighting for his services.
Some of the South Fla writers act like a bunch of arrogant ***** who seem to enjoy persuading the mass collective of fans into buying into "their" opinion of a player as if they're the Gods of talent assessment and hold the crystal ball of the team. These idiots plant massive seeds of doubt and act as a cancer to a fan base and its organization IMO. The constant trashing that comes from some of them (whom I thought as reporters were supposed to abstain from using personal opinion as if were "fact") is one of the greatest abuses of privilege I've seen. Some of the drones who follow these reporters and parrot back their opinions with conviction are equally as embarrassing & annoying.
I agree with some of what you said, and was not impressed with Orton in Chicago, however I saw a marked improvement when he went to Denver -- for whatever reason. It could be for the reasons you outline, or it could also be because he matured and just got better. Not only does he seem far more competent to me than Henne, but the numbers bear that out as well: last year he threw twice as many TD's as INT's, and his QB rating was 87.5. Chad Henne on the other hand, threw 4 more INT's than TD's, and had a QB rating of 75. Huge difference there. Plus as I said, Henne just doesn't have the ability to process the field quick enough (at an NFL level)....in my opinion.
Number 1: I want to start winning some football games. I want to enjoy watching the Miami Dolphins play on Sunday. I'm flat out sick of the garbage product we've been putting on the field. Number 2: Even if we get our supposed "Quarterback of the future" in next years draft, the chances are microscopic that the guy comes out and starts in his first year, and maybe not even in his 2nd. Who's going to run the ship while that maturation and development happens? Chad Henne? Yuck. I say get Orton. Even overpay a little bit to do it...just not too much.
Exactly. Why should he need this assurance of starting? No one player should be given that assurance period. If he's scared of competing with an unproven QB then who would he be confident in competing against? If we could get Orton for a 4th and with him knowing he IS going to have to win the job then I'm fine with Orton coming here. If Orton is promised the job just because then we would be making a huge mistake.
With all due respect, you are talking about getting a QB of the future while also acknowledging that due to development and maturation time he may not be ready to really contribute for 2 years. At the same time you have already written off a young prospect that is just about to go into his 3rd year starting if he gets the job. At the same time your dead set that the answer for us is to "overpay" for a QB that at the same timeframe that Henne is at now was considered a below avg. QB. Do you not see the irony of this?
Sure I see the irony, but only if one chooses to ignore the other points in my post. I.e., that I don't personally think that Henne has the requisite intuitive skills and raw material.
Perhaps fair to say about the Bears, but not about the Broncos at this point. If the Broncos were convinced Orton is not a very good QB then he would have been traded already. However, the Broncos gave Orton a $1.5 million bonus on Friday, have him working with the 1st team offense for the 3rd day in a row and are saying he will be a Bronco this year paying him $8.9 million dollars and looks to be the clear starter. If the Broncos didn't think he was very good and Tebow is the future, Orton would have been cut or traded before Friday (saving $1.5 million roster bonus) and they certainly wouldn't have him practicing with the 1st team offense given the condensed training camp and Tebow needing all the work he can get.
In my experience, the offensive system has a huge impact on your TD totals. I can't just go with "for whatever reason" and then decide the reason is the QB. Particularly when I can see the failings in the system. That's one of those situations where you can't just look at the stats and pinpoint the problem as being the QB. I will also disagree with your contention that Henne can't process the field quick enough at least relative to Orton. Orton was much worse than Henne on third downs and under pressure. That is usually your best indicator of how good your QB is at processing the field quickly. Orton only appeared to process things more quickly, b/c he had a better system in non-pressure situations. That goes back to the constraint concepts and the easier reads and throws in the system. But all systems break down when there's enough pressure. If you want to compare two QB's ability to process the field quickly then you do it under as similar circumstances as possible. That would be when they're both under pressure. Now to be clear, I don't think either one is processes the field quick enough or well enough to be franchise QB, but in an even comparison Orton was worse in that regard.
Not necessarily. If I were running the Broncos and had decided that Orton wasn't the answer, but couldn't get Miami to bite, I would have paid him the $1.5 now knowing that there will be injuries and other developments that will make some team desperate this season.
Ok, fair enough. I didn't see the issues you did with Orton on third down, but maybe we watched different games. In any event, to me, watching Henne last year was so distasteful, I found myself turning off the TV more often than not, in disgust. He had no passion, didn't move (physically or mentally) with any sense of alacrity, looked like he was on ludes half the time, demonstrated no leadership skills or energy, and didn't execute worth a damn in the clutch. I suppose miracles can sometimes happen, and maybe he'll be a completely different player this year, but if he comes out playing like the same old Chad, frankly I'd rather call up a guy with some leadership skills like Pennington and have him throwing with his left arm instead of going through another season of endless sub-mediocrity.
Ah, "don't make that trade, it will cost us draft picks!!!" Perhaps a little jog down Dolfan memory lane is in order? 2000 Wanny "What can Trent Green do that Jay Fiedler can't do"? 2001: passed on drafting Drew Brees 2002 Wanny: "Err, yeah, we have a trade for Matt Hasselback worked out as soon as I get off of the golf course" 2006: passed on signing Drew Brees 2008: passed on Drafting Matt Ryan, Dennis Dixcon, Josh Johnson, and Matt Flynn 2010: passed on drafting Colt McCoy 2011:so far have passed on trading for Kyle Orton Now it could be said we should have drafted Kolb in 07 via trading out of the #9 and acquiring picks, that is a bridge perhaps to far. When I hear the lament "we need a Qb!" folks should realize, the talent has always been on the board, it is right there, football karma has not screwed the Dolphins Franchise over, we simply have said "no thanks" time after time after time. It is like a sickness, "here is a perfectly good Qb prospect" "oh no, we can't take them we will take a Cb/OT/OG instead..time after time, and it is not just early rd picks, there were fine prospects in the later rounds as well..once again..we said "no thanks" Those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
Third down production is a measurable stat. It's not about watching different games, it is a fact that Orton was considerably worse on third downs. If your eyes are telling you that Orton was better on third downs when it is an obvious fact that he wasn't then you have to realize that your observations are simply not objective. Henne Att Comp Pct Yds YPA Lg TD Int 1st 1st % 20+ Sac Rate 142 81 57.0 938 6.61 57 7 7 60 74.1 10 12 73.0 Orton Att Comp Pct Yds YPA Lg TD Int 1st 1st % 20+ Sac Rate 120 60 50.0 670 5.58 34 3 5 39 65.0 10 16 58.0 During the season I can usually find the stats for "when blitzed", but I haven't been able to find those during the off-season. Although last time I checked (during the season) Henne was among the league leaders and Orton was among the worst in the league.
Repeating history would be trading for yet another "not good enough" QB. The opposite would be trading up in what is expected to be a very good QB draft for a potential franchise QB. Trading away our picks for Orton would be an example of having not learned anything from history.
Oh my... Do you REALLY believe what you just wrote? Could not disagree more. Seems more like a serious attempt to justify a very bad decision to feel better about it and nothing more. You can argue that it's past and revisionist history so why discuss it and I'd accept that but the argument you just forwarded I cannot. Drew Brees was a prosepct that had just matured into a Pro Bowl level NFL QB. He elevated the play of the Saints offense just like he would have elevated the play of our offense. OUr team would be in a COMPLETELY different place today if we had brought Brees in. As far as Brees getting "sacked 3 Billion times and forced into retirement"..... horse manuer! Drew Brees is very adept at avoiding a rush and improvising. In fact he was much better at it than the post knee injury Culppepper we received and had to play that year. Brees would have been fine because he is a QB that is able to burn you if you test him with all out blitzes. Culpepper was helpless. Culpepper was well known to have his best success when a play breaks down and he's scrambling around. He was never great at reading defenses. Teams knew that if his mobility was gone they could send the house and not worry about getting burned. Why do you think teams blitzed us heavily with Pepper back there? His weakness allowed them too. There's no reason to dismiss one of the many bad choices this team has made over the last 15 years.
We have NEVER traded for a Qb in Orton's particular situation that being: -under 30 -uninjured, or not coming back from an injury -more then 40 career starts -on an upwards trend Feely had 3 career starts, C-Pepe had shredded his knee and refused to rehab it properly, even Brees was coming off of a shredded shoulder, Trent Green was coming off of a series of concussions, the closest we have ever come to a player in Orton's situation is Chad Pennington, who was moved out due to his contract size and the Jest acquired Favre, and CP pretty much threw himself at the Dolphins. That is what it takes for this franchise to land a productive Qb, a Qb pretty much forcing himself on us as this Franchise can be..kinda dumb, at times.
He did so well in Denver last year, they pulled him for Tebow for several games... No one is saying that Henne from last year is better than Orton. What most are saying is that a) Orton is average at best b) the compensation Denver wants was too high for a QB who is not elite c) the money and guarantee of a long term contract he wanted wasn't worth what he brings to the table and d) unlike Henne, Orton pretty much has reached his potential... The fact that he didn't have a breakout year with a better [more QB friendly] offensive system bears that out. His numbers are better than Henne's right now, but they aren't great numbers. He isn't the next great QB in the league... Henne may not be either if Sparano and Ireland don't improve the talent around him. That's our biggest problem...they are making some moves, but not significant moves to improve the talent base. We still have no speed at the WR position (rookies notwithstanding), a journeyman, plodding TE, we don't know which FB we'll see (Polite of 2009 or Polite of 2010), we have an experimental back with Bush...can he be the featured back ?? Can he run the lead draw a dozen times a game? Will Pouncey and a more experienced Jerry and a Garner coming off injury be the answer to our pathetic interior OL play ?? And these are just the questions about the O...Who are our return guys (have you heard that question before)...?? What safeties will we have come to the table this year ?? Can Smith and Davis continue to progress ?? Will Allen help this year after the ACL injury ?? Too many questions to expect big things from this team this year....
IMO Brees was one of the few QBs who could have been good in spite of our system. I think Brees has elite level processing speed that would have allowed him to avoid taking all those sacks. But I think the list of QBs that could have been good here is short. I would include Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Big Ben, Rodgers (assuming he got to sit for a couple of years), Rivers and that's about it.
This post is a little confusing and I'll tell you why. You start by attempting to take on those saying don't waste a draft pick by trading for Orton and then proceed to give a bunch of examples that have nothing to do with trading draft picks for players. What were those examples supposed to argue? Trent Green was a huge mistake! That situation was diff. though in that we had a QB with no pedigree at all and development of him was not an issue like it is with Henne. Not drafting Drew Brees was in fact another huge mistake but I doubt you'd find one person that would argue against that and most of us were in favor of using that 1st round pick on him. This has nothing to do with whether Orton is worth a high draft pick right now, it was about investing in a young prospect for the future at the time. Different issue altogether. Missed on signing Drew Brees was in fact yet another mistake but it had nothing to do with us trading for a player. In fact we decided on Culpepper who cost us picks while Brees was a FA. Drafting Dixon, Johnson, McCoy etc.... Were those losses? Ryan maybe but I'd argue that Long is much better at his position than Ryan is as a QB. Just because our organization has failed for a long time to invest in QB prospects through the draft does not justify overpaying in draft picks for an avg. veteran. In fact it takes away our ability to draft prospects in the future no? We have a recent history of burning draft picks for avg. to complete failures at the QB position. Interesting that you left all those trades out in your argument against those that want Miami to stand firm in what they are willing to give up for Orton. Seeing all that I'd say that us fans who support Ireland standing firm on what he's willing to give up for Orton have in fact learned from our history and are hoping we don't repeat the same mistakes of burning draft picks.
I find stats useful, up to a point. I still do not believe that Henne has the requisite leadership skills, intuition, energy, and field-processing abilities to be an effective NFL QB. Also, since you bring up stats -- what are your thoughts on the ones I posted earlier that show the 2x TD/INT ration that Orton had, versus Henne's abysmal numbers? I hope you aren't going to theorize that is due to "the system"? If you're going to purport that measurable stats show that Orton was clearly inferior/deficient on 3rd down, then you also have to concur that Henne is demonstrably worse "in general". I mean Henne's overall stats are clearly worse...am I right? The guy flat out stunk last year. Only time will tell however. If he stays flat (or regresses like he did last year), then he needs to be gone.
IMO the "upward trend" you point to is nothing more than the difference between a good offensive system and a bad offensive system. I don't see your other criteria as meaningful differences in terms of whether the QB is good enough or not. What I have found is that the QBs that are good enough always tend to be good on third down and under pressure. Always, so if you have a guy who is not good in those situations then you better keep looking for a franchise QB b/c you don't have one.
