good read link http://www.newerascouting.com/top_stories/506-stretching-the-field-bad-advice/ Too often players are getting bad advice from the Advisory Committee, which is made up of NFL general managers and personnel executives. The players receive a round grade, a comment, and advice on whether to stay or declare. At one time, the round grades given were accurate usually within 15-20 picks, or a half round. Often the grade itself is going to give a guy the go ahead he needs to declare, so that’s why this process is so delicate. The more glaring misses lately have given some concern that this process isn’t as accurate as it used to be. A great example of this is former Bowling Green quarterback Omar Jacobs. Jacobs had a hot sophomore season, and entered into this junior year drawing comparisons to then Minnesota Viking Daunte Culpepper. Jacobs had a huge arm, but then suffered an injury to his non throwing shoulder, which caused his production to slip considerably. On cue, Jacobs petitioned the Advisory Committee after the 2005 season, and was given a fourth round grade and advised to stay in school. He declared anyways, hoping to build up his draft stock. He was promptly drafted in the fifth round of the 2006 NFL Draft, and has never thrown an NFL regular season pass. He currently plays in the American Indoor Football League, with the Florence Phantoms. At the age of 24, Jacobs has no chance of reviving his once promising NFL career. Looking at this season, the highest rated underclassmen to feel the wrath of his grade was Maryland inside linebacker Erin Henderson. Henderson, who had battled injuries all season, received a second round grade, but was also advised against declaring. Henderson wentundrafted this past weekend, despite having the kind of physical skills NFL general managers love at the evolving middle linebacker position. While Henderson has battled injuries this year, all reports were that he was healthy enough to play this season. So where was the breakdown here? It seems that the once flawless Advisory Committee Grade gave false draft stock hope to a player who realistically wasn’t ready to play in the NFL anyways.
Yeah Gregg Easterbrook was talking about that as well. The problem is that they give advice based on talent, but when there are 80 people with 1-2 round grades, and only so many drafted, some people end up going much lower than they were advised.
I don't see recoverable injuries as a reason I guy should go undrafted. We seem to have gotten a steal in Rod Wright, who had way more talent than the other guys in the seventh. I don't know why we just take a flier on a guy like that every year and have some patience, this year it would have been Erin Henderson. Instead we take a likely undrafted guy in the 6th If you can get a 7th rounder every year to be a quality starter 2-3 years down the road, you will have a competitive team with a low cap. What's not to like?
Rewind to the Wannstedt years where the 'phins claimed they got "great value" from multiple picks that slipped due to injury concerns every year. I'd say that if you do gamble on off fields issues in the draft, be it character or injury, you limit yourself to one or two gambles per year maximum. As far as the article goes one or two outliers does not make a trend. If you want to claim a trend how about evaluating all the picks that were given advice and the accuracy of the advice given - both the recent "bad" years and the previous "golden age of sage advice"
