Saw this question on Kiper's Chat today. Thought it was interesting considering some people were saying to take Weeden via a trade-back in the 1st or the early pick in the 2nd. Kiper thinks he goes 3rd to 5th. He also thinks Jones is still ahead of Barkley though. I take Kiper's scouting with a grain of salt but he does have a good sense for where a lot of guys end up going.
I don't agree with Jones ahead of Barkley right now. Others may think Jones is ahead of Barkley and I respect that opinion, but I don't agree with it at the moment.
Do you feel Jones is in the top 10 pick mix though? A lot has to unfold before the draft , right now there is a lot of unanswered questions that we can speculate about or presume but imo a lot has to and will clear up in the next several months and I do have Jones at the minimum of being a top half of the first round selection.
Jones seems to be really undersold on this site now, with Luck, Barkley, RG3 and Weeden getting more notice. Alen, how would you rank the top 5-6 QBs atm?
IMO Jones is very over rated. I fully expect him to be a top 10 pick, but I also see him and RGIII as having the highest bust risk.
Honestly, I wouldn't rank them right now. Mainly because I haven't watched all of them to the point where I'd feel comfortable ranking them. I'm not going to give you a BS answer.
I think Jones will go in the top 10 but he does have bust potential. To me he is a stronger armed but less accurate Sam Bradford. I have Barkley ranked closer to Luck then many do. I am kind of surprised about Weeden/Kiper. I have a great amount of respect for Kiper and I am not the biggest Weeden fan but I cant see him falling out of the second even though he plays in that video game offense.
I don't know. I could easily see Weeden available in the 3rd....... and possibly 4th. He's not going in the 1st b/c he doesn't represent enough value due to age. He's not going in the top half of the 2nd b/c these teams will have already taken their QB in the 1st round (plus the age thing). He's likely not going in the back half of 2nd b/c these teams are closer to the playoffs and will likely be either filling an immediate need or drafting BPA to help them win now, especially considering the volatility of NFL coaches who, as a result, might have a difficult time hitching themselves to an aged rookie. If he lasts through the 2nd, then he's potentially not going in the first half of round 3 for the same reason he's probably not going in the top half of round 2 (limited demand). If he makes it to the middle of the 3rd, then his destiny could be a matter of circumstance (Does he fit the system? Does he represent more value than a player at a different position of need who may have fallen? etc) If circumstance pushes him through the 3rd, then he'll likely be there through the first half of the 4th unless someone caves and trades up, which I could see as a definite possibility. That's my guess right now---- a trade up into 2nd half of round 3 or first half of round 4.
Despite Ryan Mallett's high praise by some, he was a 3rd rounder (that's not meant as a jab, rather just stating fact). So if Mallett was a 3rd, then Weeden as a 3rd-5th definitely can't be ruled out considering the NFL seems to be a fickle bunch come draft day.
I think Weeden will go in the 2nd round. The thing about Mallett is a good point, he dropped to the top of the 3rd where NE snagged him and they very well could have been the only team that actually thought he was the best QB in the Draft. That could happen again with anyone except Luck or Barkley, IMO. You don't know until Draft day. But the thing that Brandon Weeden will have in his arsenal that Ryan Mallett was not able to have...is the Senior Bowl. It's actually kind of a fitting name considering all the jokes about his being 28 years old, lol. But either way that is the setting where Brandon will be able to show the feet that people aren't necessarily seeing in that Oklahoma State offense, and he'll be able to show that he's a natural leader and performer, a gamer. He actually has great feet but you're not seeing it much because of the offense. Put him in the dropback situations in the Senior Bowl practices and you're going to see stories written about how surprisingly good he is with that kind of technique. That's key because when you have a big weakness, in Mallett's case his history and 40 time, and in Weeden's case his age...you have to keep hitting these NFL evaluators over the head over and over again with the reason they need to not care about that weakness. Any time you can go out onto a practice field, interact with other football players, show off your skills in live fire settings, if you're a true gamer and a true performer, then you're being afforded a great opportunity to hit the NFL evaluators over the head with your strengths as a player and tell them that they shouldn't give a damn about your weaknesses. Where would Phil Rivers have gone if he hadn't participated in the 2004 Senior Bowl? If he hadn't participated in that, and DOMINATED it (which he did, incredible performance), then all these evaluators would have seen from January to April would be Rivers at the Combine, Rivers at his Pro Day with that funky delivery that even Greg Cosell admits he couldn't get over and that was why he was so down on Rivers as a pro. The evaluators needed to be smacked in the face with reminders that when you get into a game, this is the dude you want on your side. Same is going to be true of Matt Barkley and Brandon Weeden, although Weeden will be afforded with a similar opportunity at his Pro Day because he can put smoke trails on his throws. Unfortunately Barkley at his Pro Day is going to look no more impressive than T.J. Yates did at his Pro Day. He'll look good, will have great mechanics, you won't see many balls hitting the ground. More discerning eyes will nod with approval. But he's not going to cause any tingles in your gut when he steps off the bus, and you're not going to feel goose bumps when he throws the ball. Same at the Combine. He'll run an OK time in the 40, either at the Combine or his Pro Day. It won't be great. If he throws at the Combine (which I think would be a mistake), he'll have his arm strength exposed sitting next to guys like Weeden, Jones and Tannehill, all of whom have better arm strength. This is a process where, unfortunately, Matt Barkley will be forced to hammer evaluators on the head with his weaknesses, without being afforded the opportunity to hit them on the head with his strengths. For that reason, I think he needs to accept the NFLPA's invitation to participate in the Junior Bowl, even if no scouts will be present at practices. They'll find ways to hear about what went on at those practices, and they'll scour the game film of the game itself. Why does Aaron Rodgers fall below an Alex Smith? Simple. When the two get off the bus, your eyes are drawn to the bigger, stronger Alex Smith. When they throw together at a Combine or a Pro Day, your eyes are drawn to Alex Smith. When you get them on a wonderlic, your eyes get bigger seeing Alex Smith's score. When you have them run Combine drills you get super impressed with Alex Smith's showing the speed and agility scores of a skill position player. But when you're watching the games, I'll be damned if you're not drawn more to Aaron Rodgers. However, as a junior that came out early, Rodgers didn't have the ability to hit evaluators on the head with that by performing in an All Star setting. He just had to sit and wait. Like he ended up doing on draft day. Does that mean Barkley will fall? No. He's got an floor built in on his draft stock. Whichever among the teams that are desperate for a quarterback and happens to be picking next after Indianapolis, will take him. If the Rams, Panthers, Jaguars and Vikings are picking in the top 5 with Indianapolis and Miami is picking #6 then I think Barkley will go #6. What I'm saying about gamers falling through the process doesn't mean Barkley will come crashing down. What it means is, as I put on my future vision goggles, I find it a little harder imagining some team paying a ransom to move up in the Draft and take him.
The thing that affects Weeden mostly , as I see it , is not he will have less years to play because of his severely advanced age , it is the valuation that said age has to his actual ability. I have maintained this from last year and increduosly read some postings and buzz here about how he was the number 2 pick overall and was a top 5 overall NFL QB.
I agree with this. I remember arguing that Miami should take Rivers at some point before the Senior Bowl. At the time, there was a debate whether he was worth Miami's 2nd round pick. I was arguing that he was worth a 1st round pick and was getting blasted. Obviously, we never had the opportunity to take him in the 2nd. I see the parallel with Weedon. Now Weedon will not be able to overcome the age thing in some people's minds, but IMO he is neck and neck with Barkley with only Luck ahead of them. I would take Barkley over him b/c of the age thing, but I have no doubt that Weedon is a top QB prospect.
