I haven't done nearly as much research on the draft as I usually do but short of Ryan Tannehill there's not a single player at #8 that would scream "top 10" pick to me. There's very few elite players in this class but boy, the 2nd and 3rd rounds are loaded with good ones.
I don't see it this way at all. For one thing, how'd that "someone will throw money at him (see Kevin Kolb)" logic work out for Matt Flynn, who basically got 3 years, $19 million, some extra contract incentives (which may or may not be achieved) pushing the sticker number to $24 million, and a promise that he can COMPETE with Tarvaris Jackson for the start? In this business, you don't get a Peyton Manning or Tom Brady reputation overnight. It helps to start out with HIGH draft standing, which Brandon Weeden is almost assuredly not going to have. But after that, you need to either put up gaudy numbers for a while, go to Pro Bowls (multiple), or win the Super Bowl. Look at Aaron Rodgers. In 2008 and 2009 he averaged 64% completion for 4200 yards on 7.9 YPA, averaged 29 TDs per season and only 10 INTs...tossing on another 500 yards rushing and 9 TDs the two years combined...yet was he known as an elite level quarterback around the league? Nope. It was not until 2010 when he went on that playoff run, won the Super Bowl, that everyone started licking his ***. Until then, he was talented, even franchise level, but not elite. If he were 33 years old, prior to that Super Bowl season, what do you think he'd have gotten contract-wise form his team in a contract extention? If you're going to get big money, we're talking $15 million a year, you need to have built up quite a reputation. Weeden could perform well enough that he's playing the same caliber football as those $15 million a year guys, but because he's not a top 5 or top 10 pick, and because he won't have had the time to build that reputation, he's not going to get that level of cash. That's why I say the guy is destined to be underpaid. And the situation you outline where he's playing as well as Matt Ryan, first off I'd love to have THAT problem, secondly it'll make him even MORE underpaid. If you're a good GM and you're getting that level of play from your QB for that little amount of pay, you should be able to build a championship team. No excuses.
I think your seeing that in the Brees situation. He's a SB winner, the city's savior and an elite QB, but he's 33 and his contract is not yet done. I assume it will get done eventually, but imagine how much lower the final number would be if he was 33, had put up great numbers for fewer years and wasn't the city savior. I think that's what Weedon will face (I left the SB winner one open, ).
Not sure how one can guage how much or IF someone watched a player via a message board. I mean if someone said Weeden is a Latino QB, then maybe you can come to that conclusion. But because someone sees flaws others do not? That's just disagreeing.
EXACTLY. Guy is destined to be way underpaid his whole career. Half of his career is going to be paid by a post-wage scale rookie contract, the other half will be negotiated while he's in the 30+ range. It's not rocket science.
I believe he's referring to the Brandon Weeden = Chris Weinke comparison and yes, that's about as accurate as saying Weeden looks Latino.
To me they have similar throwing motions, could be wrong? Sure. Why did I look at Weinke in comparison? Yes, it was the age/ background. They may not be "Twins" but they sure aren't apples n oranges either.
I'll say this, if Ireland continues his trend of "safe picks", you have to think Weeden is high on his board. With Tannehill, the upside might be higher (only because of age IMO) but the floor is certainly much lower.
I would say that talent-wise Weedon and Weinke are apples and oranges. The age thing is secondary to the talent question.
Fairly simple to tell actually. People start throwing round idiotic statements. That's usually a fairly strong indicator. And anyway, who's talking about you? Although comparing Weinke to Weeden would be another good pointer.
Didnt say anyone was talking about me, simply curious as to what so so terrible about the thread. All I saw was differing opinions.
There's nothing terrible about the thread. There's some excellent contributions. But some clearly idiotic statements from a couple of people who've seen one game, have no clue what they're actually looking at, etc.
These are the similaraties I see personally. - Both looked stiff in their delivery - Similar Size - Similar lack of athletic ability - Similar lack of a good deep ball - Both dont look to throw well on the run - Both were no stranger to a Turnover I would even argue that Weinke had less to work with from a talent standpoint, and not to mention the spread can inflate a QB's #'s. All this being said their are many other factors in evaluating a QB that they may be totally different than that wich I described, Im not arguing that they are the same player Im just saying they have alot of the same flaws other than pushing 30. Weeden with our 2nd RD pick? I wouldnt bash the TV in, but I just dont see a 1st RD QB from a talent standpoint.
I don't see what you see. Weedon is one of the most natural passers I have ever seen. I don't see any stiffness in his delivery. The lack of athletic ability claim has been disproved by the pro day numbers. And Weedon had fantastic TO stats. Weinke wasn't TO prone either, but Weedon had an even lower INT ratio. I don't see a poor deep ball with Weedon. I agree that neither threw/throws well on the run and they were the same height although there's about a 20 lb. difference in weight. But you could probably say that about hundreds of prospects over the years. Their talent level, however, is apples and oranges. The fact that you're saying they're similar is mind-boggling to me. It's literally something I would expect somebody who had never seen Weedon play to say. My only guess is that you decided they were same based on the age thing blinded yourself to what is actually on the film.
I realize two different people can watch the same play and come up with two different interpretations, but when I read this, again I question how much you've even watched the two players play football. It's your opinion, I get it, but if I were to express my opinion enumerating all the similarities between Earl Campbell and Curtis Martin, you'd probably come away feeling like I'm speaking Chinese. That's how I feel about all of the "similarities" you just enumerated. -What does "stiff delivery" even mean? Brandon Weeden has a very natural, fluid delivery. It's all one smooth, quick motion with no hitches. This was actually one of Chris Weinke's strong suits as well, he had a good delivery, nothing wrong with it. But their stances in the pocket differed. Their bases differed. The spin on the ball differed. I believe even their arm slots differed. -Their builds are/were totally different. Chris Weinke was a much more solid, bulky player with a lot more physical strength. Weeden runs under 220 lbs usually, on his 6'4" frame. I believe Weinke generally ran closer to 230 lbs, was built more like a running back. -Athletic ability was one of Weinke's strong suits. He moved really well and could make people miss, create on the move. That's not Weeden's game. -LMFAO (no, this statement doesn't deserve having me address it seriously) -As I said, I actually thought Weinke was a pretty good play maker on the move back at Florida State. His size and being able to deal with a rush, those were positives to him. -Chris Weinke threw 26 interceptions in 842 pass attempts, his final two seasons. Weeden threw 26 interceptions his final two seasons, at least that much is similar, but he did that in 1075 pass attempts. That is a SIGNIFICANT difference in interception percentage, going from 2.4% to 3.1%. That's like saying Tom Brady and Tony Romo are similar in that neither is a stranger to throwing turnovers. It just doesn't compute. I mean, clearly they both wear pads and a uniform, and they both throw a leather, oblong shaped object to other players in pads and uniform, who then catch the object and run with it. They have that in common. But otherwise...
Trend of "safe picks"? That trend ended last year after Parcells left. Ireland, himself, has displayed no such trend, HK.
Mike Pouncey disagrees. Statistically speaking, picking a Center in the 1st round is one of the safest things you can do. The bust rate on a 1st round center is extremely small.
Looks like you see Troy Aikman in Weeden, my guess is you looked at a highlight film then blinded yourself to pretend he is flawless. That's my guess anyway.
Here's a scouting report from KFFL... http://www.kffl.com/a.php/130039/nf...ng-Report--Brandon-Weeden--QB--Oklahoma-State
Actually, I see more Marino. That's what I've been saying since I started watching his games on 2010. Aikman would another poor comparison. In think you're just not a very good guesser.
Actually, it's been mentioned a few times by other posters in the club over the last two years as well. He's a very natural passer who moves very well in the pocket. That is very Marino like. He doesn't have the fast release, but the style is very similar. But you may not have noticed b/c I'm talking about his style of play rather than being focused on his age.
Not anymore, I just rewatched 4 YouTube videos and I too saw Dan Marino in his prime. Why on earth are ppl projecting him in the 2nd to 3rd round? It's insane. Now I know why Washington traded the farm to move up to #2, they are getting Andrew Luck. Clearly the Colts won't pass on Dan Marino.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=he4suL3YGJA At 5:01 in this video is an example of a throw that I think some people would tend to nitpick. I think a lot of people want their QB to set up and be strong, pretend the rush isn't there, step up, throw the ball, and if you get hit then you get hit. But that's not me. That's not what I want to see. I don't want you to get hit. Those hits add up. Here you see Weeden set up off the play-action and he's got his eyes down the field, but he clearly senses (without taking his eyes down) that a black jersey is on the WRONG side of the battle front. So, he lets his momentum keep drifting backward, keeps hopping backward away from the rush until the target is ready for the throw. Some QBs to me, they see that rusher on the wrong side of the line coming free at him and they rush that throw, step up and make it a strong throw, and probably get whacked. Weeden has the confidence in his arm and the nibleness of his feet that he can float away from the rush and make worse leverage from himself, waiting for the right time to make the throw. But this isn't REALLY a back foot throw. He's got his feet under him, he's got a good stance, it's just odd leverage. The ball goes almost exactly 40 yards through the air, yet it's a low trajectory, well aimed throw. Most guys when they're throwing 40 yards (including Matt Flynn, whom I liked more than a lot of folks), if they're throwing that distance of 120 feet they've got to hang that ball in the air. This throw ends up LOOKING like a shorter throw than it actually was (full 120 feet), simply because Weeden gave it the trajectory of a shorter throw. But that's a testament to his tremendous arm. So I see people talk about his tendency to float backward and away from the rush, how it's a bad thing...and I can't help but think, did you watch Marino? He did that all the time. He always knew what he wanted to do with the football, so he always focused on only buying the amount of time he needed, and he had the confidence in his arm to get the ball there while floating back, to the side, odd leverage, etc.
For the record I never said Weeden sucked or will suck, I just don't see him as a 1st rounder or Dan Marino either. His age is an issue but not they the only one IMO.
To go further on this, this is just something I know because I do the distance and velocity work that I do, but that distance is really right on the cusp to me of where a QB needs to shift the character of the throw by bringing it upward with a higher arc. Right around that 105 to 120 foot distance...that's where you most often see the breakpoint. If Weeden set up STRONG in the pocket, rushed the throw a little bit before its time, put pace on the ball, (got whacked by the defender)...he could have shaved about 15-20 feet off that throw. He'd have been setting up a release point a foot inside the hash at the 25, receiver probably would have been catching the ball at the 50 a little further inside the numbers, literally could've shaved 20 feet off the throw (and got whacked). But you also would have been taking the chance that the receiver wasn't ready for the ball and wouldn't have had the time to adjust to it (and the QB would've gotten whacked). This confidence that Weeden has, a lot of it stems from preparation and just knowing he's got good players around him, but a lot of it is just his god-given arm talent. He just has no problem with the idea of floating back an extra 10 feet and making a throw of that distance without the most ideal leverage (again, it's not a back foot throw, IMO), whereas I think other guys tend to know instinctively that they're starting to get into territory where you're about to attempt a dangerous throw.
RE: the bold - He may go first round, but I agree with you. For the record, I don't agree with the reasons you listed out earlier in the thread, but from a general view, I agree that I don't see him as a first round talent.
CK already answered this, but yeah. Mike Pouncey. That's a typical Ireland pick if there ever was one. He also traded up for Daniel Thomas, another guy with limited upside IMO. I'm not even saying it's a negative in this case. If Ireland's "safe" method nets the Dolphins Weeden, then I'm all for it. ****, the guy should be able to get lucky and land an impact player at this point, statistically speaking
And of course right after, at 5:12 or so, he throws a nice 150 footer, and this is your classic higher trajectory deep ball, yet the trajectory on it is lower with a better pace than you see on a lot of players, even the ones with middling arm strength for an NFL starter. I can't time a throw off YouTube, I won't even try. I know the distance I just don't know the time. But I bet that velocity comes out around the 45 mph range which is 5 mph hotter than most guys. He can't throw the deep ball? Really? Ball goes right through Justin Blackmon's hands. That's what I mean when I talk about for all he leaned on Justin Blackmon in some ways, I'm always astounded every time I watch how many big plays Blackmon left on the field with perfectly thrown passes to an open Blackmon just plain dropped, or Justin finding some other way to screw up what otherwise should have been a huge gain or a touchdown. There are definitely some performance anxiety issues for Blackmon in those situations.
By the way if you want to know why I was pretty sure Weeden would show up better than people thought in his Pro Day athleticism measures, fast forward to 6:12 of this video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=he4suL3YGJA
