OK folks. We've won three in a row here. Bengals, Rams, and Jets. This game against the Colts is IMO fundamentally different from all three. Against the Bengals you could argue we went into Cincinnati as an underdog at 1-3, perhaps being taken lightly by the favored home team. A close win perhaps fueled by the opposing team's complacency if you will. You might even think that if we went into Cincinnati right now as a favored 4-3 team, the Bengals would gear up for the game to a much greater degree and win it. Against the Rams we were favored for the first time this year, and we eeked out a close win that you could argue was fueled by being at home and making some unusual plays such as a first down off of a fake punt when the game was winding down and we needed to kill the clock. Jeff Fisher also had some questionable clock management and decisions late in that game. Against the Jets you could argue the Jets were coming off a division rivalry game the previous week against the Patriots in which they shot their wad, leaving them flat against us, and that they made the mistake of giving us bulletin board material by saying they planned to intentionally hurt Reggie Bush, which galvanized our fighting spirit. So the team is on a three-game winning streak here, but someone could argue the team has done it to a good extent with smoke and mirrors and not necessarily be ultra-cynical in saying so. Sure the team has looked good in many areas and has defied many people's preseason expectations, but each of these previous three games has had extenuating circumstances that made it to some extent atypical. Therefore, IMO these three wins don't allow a person to believe with great certainty that the Miami Dolphins are truly one of the league's better teams. And I suspect you know it deep down yourself. I know I do. Now, enter the game this week, which IMO is totally different. We're favored on the road for the first time this year, and there is no sort of unusual build-up to this game that makes it different from a typical one. Being an underdog at home, the Colts won't be complacent as the Bengals might've been. Unlike the Rams, they'll have the benefit of their home crowd. And although like the Jets they're coming off an overtime win in which they may have shot their wad, there has been no pregame hoopla fuled by trash talk or any otherwise unusual factors in the lead up to this game. So, IMO what the Miami Dolphins have on their plate in this game is one in which they can much more firmly establish their identity as one of the better teams in the league. Given the parity in the league, when you can go on the road in the NFL as a favored team and come away with a win that can't be attributed to anything unusual, which is by no means easy, you should be regarded as a team to contend with. Not only were you favored on the road, but you took the energy and motivation that generated in the other team and overcame it. In other words, this is the kind of game that can go a long way toward getting the team over the hump from mediocre to truly good, and in that way it can establish the team's identity. Let's get a win this week. If we come out of this with a win, I'll be on the bandwagon for this team as being one that can actually make some noise in the playoffs this year.
I agree with what you say about the 3-game winning streak. However, I don't think this is much of an identiy game either. Sure, the Colts are 4-3, but they have perhaps, done it much like we have. By mostly beating beating bad teams. Hell, they even lost to Jacksonville. Indy is young, inconsistent and really is not very good litmus test. Don't get me wrong, it's a huge game because of where both teams are in the standings. But it not a very good barometer for where we stack up against the elite teams in the NFL. That test will start later this month when we have tough 4 game stretch; @ Buffalo (only tough because it's really hard to win on the road on Thursday Night) vs Seattle vs New England @ San Francisco We will know what kind of team we are on Dec.9 at around 7:30pm.
True,I think the fact that this game will define their "true contender" status is motivational in itself. This is a statement game and they`re finally getting some recognition (favored on the road against a team with the same record) so,they should take it as such.
Indy has also beaten Minnesota and Green Bay (both at home as well). Miami's yet to beat a team that good IMO.
Is a big game only in reference to the standings, I think we are a better team especially on defense, I would be disappoint it if we lose the game.The Colts are playing at home, probably Chuck Pagano will be at the game, while all this are great motivating factors for them I also trust our Coaching staff to get our team ready. Go Dolphins!
Miami - Indianapolis will be contending for the AFC once the other AFC upper teams falls out of contend.
Minnesota has shown that they are highly overrated. I doubt they finish with a winning record. And the colts beat Green Bay in their "win one for the Pagano" game. We are a better team, but the colts are tough at home. And to Shou's original post, there is way too much parity to downplay any win, for either us or the colts. The exception being if you beat the jags or chiefs who suck significantly more than anyone else
And I don't think that either, but I do think when a team that's widely considered bad or mediocre is favored on the road for the first time, a win in such a game goes a long way toward getting it over the hump from mediocre to good. Bad teams and mediocre teams aren't usually favored on the road, and when they are, the home team considers it an insult and wins the game, that is unless the bad or mediocre team is actually starting to get good. IMO it takes a team that's finally "finding itself" to overcome the motivation a home team typically has when it feels insulted by being declared an underdog against a team that hasn't really established itself as anything special.
We must win the next two games before this whole franchise becomes one imo..have to come home and beat the titans as well for this hurt scorned franchise to truly forgive and forget.
Fair enough. Maybe I misinterpreted your original post. A win Sunday puts us in the conversation about being 'good' instead of a bottom feeder. But it in no way puts us in the conversation about being 'elite' or a real contender.
I agree. The next two games are must win. Because the next 4 after that will be daunting. Coming out of that 4-game gauntlet 2-2 will be an accomplishment.
Great posting..... And i do think it can be used as a barometer for where we stack up against elite teams... if there are any. Two straight road victories against tough teams...... four in a row..... That's what good teams do. The teams you may consider elite this season haven't beaten anyone special either. Just win baby.
I agree with PSG more on the barometer part. But as the OP puts the away game getting a 4th win in a row would go along way at this point for the young team. A little swagger would be a good thing about now.
And the key part IMO is that they're favored on the road. We beat Cincinnati on the road. We've beaten a team on the road before. The difference now is that we're starting to be considered at least somewhat good, so we're favored against a team with the same record, even in their stadium. What makes lesser teams slip back down the hump instead of getting over it is that the home underdog in this scenario usually feels insulted and does away with the bad to mediocre team that's been favored on the road. Look what we did to the Raiders, for example. If we can break that trend it'll further establish us as a good team IMO. That's the "identity" component.
I don't think the next 4 after that are daunting. The next three games are those that we "should" win while the Seattle game is someone we match up well with. However they play us at home so we don't have to deal with that Seattle atmosphere. I think our next four games are favorable but the two after that are very challenging (NE/SF). I think coming out of those 4 games (BUF/SEA/NE/SF) we should go 2-2 but going 3-1 would be very nice... maybe I have higher expectations though.
This is only a big game because the winner controls their playoff destiny. That's the only reason this is a big game.
@ Buffalo is daunting only because winning on the road on TNF has proven to be difficult. vs. Seattle will be a challenge simly because of Seattle's defense. NE/SF are obviously very tough games. I believe getting out of that stretch 2-2 will be an accomplishment. IMO, the most likely result will be: W @ Buffalo W vs Seattle L vs New England L vs San Fran.
San Fran can be a little Jekyll and Hyde. Lets hope it's the team that can't find a way to score more then 13 points that Miami sees. San Fran has only scored 13 points or less 3 times already this season.
Either way going cross-country to play the Niners is tough. Even if they score 13, no guarantee we score 14.
i think we need to stop that "we haven't beat anyone" nonsense, its not our fault the schedule is the way it is
I think it's the kind of game where Ryan Tannehill is going to have to show the kind of poise and leadership Tom Brady has, where he can go into another team's stadium as a favorite and lead the team to victory. That isn't easy to do in the NFL, where home underdogs are pissed off and out for blood, and rookie QBs are often targeted and rattled. The injury just adds to that dynamic. If Ryan Tannehill is indeed rattled and loses this game in large part by himself, it's going to be hard for this team to believe it has the kind of quarterback that can lead it to being a noise-maker in the playoffs. Tannehill is going to have to do something atypical for a rookie here to help this team get over the hump in terms of the establishment of its identity as I've said here. If I were Joe Philbin I would be gameplanning so that there wasn't too much of the game riding on Ryan Tannehill's shoulders. The running game is going to have to show up for a change this week IMO.
I agree with all this. If we want to be taken seriously we will beat the Colts (I firmly believe we will) and the Titans getting us to 6-3. At Buffalo is a pain in the as because it is a Thursday Night game. I HATEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE Thursday night games. They give the home team too much of an advantage. Goodell should get them off the ****ing schedule (but we know he won't because they are on his network). If he wants extra football have the league go to a Saturday afternoon and evening double header starting at the end of November. All that said, I think we roll them, the Bills are horse****. Seattle is a good team. They are a GREAT team at home, a very mediocre team on the road. That said, we get a bit of a tough break with them having a bye week but because we play the previous Thursday we essentially get a bye week as well. That will even itself out. Our defense wins this game. I think we are 8-3 after the Seahawks game with the Patriots game, at home. It will be the biggest game this franchise has played since week 17 against the Jets to win the division during Sparano's first year. The 49er games is a write off game for me. East to West travel, excellent team waiting for us and we will be coming off an emotional divisional game. This has loss written all over it in big bold pen. I think we're an 8-5 team after the 49er's game (With us either losing to the 49ers and Pats back to back, or beating the Patriots at home and losing a game we should win). 8-5 at that point in the season, with the Jags and Bills at home after that? I'll take that everyday of the week and twice on Sundays. We have ourselves a 10-6 playoff team....if we take care of our business. Lose to the Colts tomorrow and we are not as good as I think we are and we go 7-9 with a bright future. Even 7-9 is a pretty major upgrade to where I thought we'd be (I had us 4-12).
What I mean is that he could go up there and get rattled and throw some picks and lose the game in that way.
This stuff is really starting to crack my up. Why folks can’t just sit back and enjoy the fact that our team is performing better than expected and is finally headed in the right direction is beyond me. Thank you Mr. Ross. Let’s not kid ourselves. This is a lower 3rd of the league offense being propped up by stellar red zone defense and very good special teams play. As far as I’m concerned, the OL and WR groups will determine the fate of this team moving forward.
I am kind of expecting Philbin to put the load on Tannehill this game because: - It is counterintuitive and Philbin doesn't like to be predictable. - Philbin challenges his players to be better. What better way to get a player to step up than to say "I know this will be hard. but I have faith in you" - The unspoken challenge to the rest of the offence becomes "you other guys better be on your game too" because the other players will know Tannehill is under the gun because he's a rookie on the road against a home underdog. Taking the safe route isn't challenging his players to be better and I think psychologically it leads them to having lower expectations.
I'd hardly consider the team winning with good defense "smoke n mirrors". We aren't tricking teams to victory. We re shutting down their offense to victory.
Is it not possible to do that while still appreciating and speaking to the next level of development this team is on the cusp of?
I think you're using the term "smoke and mirrors" in a different way than I did in the original post.
I think the team's approach all year should be that it has to step up to compensate for having a rookie QB. To send the opposite message in this game, the team's first as a road favorite, would be a mistake IMO.
Check the thread in the Club Level with information from our "birdie". Something tells me that Matt Moore could very well be starting the game tomorrow regardless of the reports that came out about Tannehill's participation in practice during the week.
It may not be ultra-cynical in saying so, but somewhat cynical nonetheless. Seems to me we've played well enough, "consistently" all season to rightly deserve our current record, regardless of which teams our wins were earned against. That said, it still leaves me concerned of the outcome against Indy. Kind of tough to expect league-wide notoriety as playoff contenders, much less "elite", before even we're convinced of it. I'm am however glad you posed the question as you did, rather than with more ominous doubt, particularly after your prophetic "blowout" thread last week.
Well if Tannehill is only one "typical rookie" game away from being benched, why is he starting in the first place? Is his leash really that short?
It really just boils down to winning as a favored team on the road, which IMO isn't easy for an NFL team to do unless it's truly good.
I would actually not favor the Dolphins. First, because Tannehill is not at full speed and missed last week's game, ostensibly. Second, because it is on the road and the Colts have looked just about as impressive as Miami (and Luck has come through in the clutch). The teams - though different in make up - are a kind of mirror to each other. And, they are favored only by 2. It's ostensibly a tossup, imo. That said, it would be a big win because we do have a tough schedule ahead. And, a loss would be a blow to playoff chances given two games left against the Pats, one against the 49ers - which will be tough wins. So will Tennessee and Seattle (though home field will help).