But what kind of "job" is let's say Aaron Rodgers doing, in comparison to the "job" Brandon Weeden is doing?
I dunno. That has nothing to do with my scoring system. Again, I don't think there's a reliable way to separate a QB's play from the play of the people catching the ball. I think you can separate a receivers play from a QBs though. I do however think, it doesn't really make a difference overall how the WR plays, UNLESS they are playing far below (Hartline) the norm or far above (V. Jackson) the norm.
I skipped to the end (short time) but I like the effort. My one issue is with "drops." Most of the stat companies out there rate "drops" as catchable balls that are not caught. I.e., can be caught with normal effort (an extraordinary attempt to catch a ball isn't considered a drop if not caught). At that point, the QB did their job, they put the ball in a place where normal effort by a WR should result in a catch. Now, there is subjectivity in this as the person reviewing each play is going to have to judge on their own whether it should have been caught or not. Yes, but it'll still be more accurate IMO. You can always grab two different drop stats and average them.
I suppose, but like you said you can't be sure why a drop happens. It could even be something other than a QB or receiver problem, it could be a good defensive play or bad weather. That's why i focused specifically on what I did.
No you can't know, but these guys are watching every throw, grading it. If a receiver has a chance to catch a ball with normal effort, and doesn't, it's a drop. It's still subjective, but it's a more accurate predictor than leaving it out. Stats LLC and others watch and grade every throw. Again, there is still subjectivity but an imperfect measure is better than no measure in this case. The QB did his job, put the ball near the receiver to catch with normal effort. What happens after that is all WR, even if it means boxing out a DB There was a year when Andre Johnson led the league. Reggie Wayne was always on there. TO, Brandon Marshall (although this year he was down to 10 I think, not bad).
I argued before in this thread that these stats and scores don't give the whole picture. Even if we had drops and they were 100% accurate we wouldn't have the complete story on a WR. Another thing I just thought of, is that how do you even weight drops? I mean a drop for a 2 yard gain on 1st down, first play of the game should be different than a drop in the endzone to win the game as time expires.
There is no perfect way but any way is better than no way. Drops reflect 100% on the skill of the WR. I think it should be counted somehow, perfectly or imperfectly. That's just my opinion. Ain't telling you to do it, just saying it would probably be better
That's because you are smart. YES! I feel as if I have accomplished something. FinD has done a awesome job in this thread guys.
So when a QB places the ball in the vicinity of the WR, and that ball is judged to be placed accurately enough to only require normal effort to catch the ball, and the ball is not caught, it does not reflect on the WR? It's not their fault? Please clarify for me. A WR who catches 40 balls but drops 15, is the same as a WR who catches 40 and drops 2? As I understand it, a dropped pass when it counts is basically a ball that hits the WR in the mitts and he drops it. It's not a great play by a DB (that counts as a pass defensed). It's not an acrobatic attempt that glances off the hands. It's Brandon Marshall standing in the end zone wide open with no db near him and he drops a pass right at his body.
Again, who is doing the judging? I'm going to use Adam's numbers: 2011: Dekcer: 44 catches, 95 targets, 46.3% Thomas: 32 catches, 70 targets, 45.7% 2012: Decker: 85 catches, 123 targets, 69.1% Thomas: 94 catches, 141 targets, 66.7% I wonder if they both magically improved their catch rate or if going from Tebow to Peyton Manning had anything to do with it?
You're confusing two very separate things. Targets are very dependent on the QB. Passes dropped are not. The QB has done his job. As this article states, last year Decker had 53 "catchable" targets last year, and dropped 9. Which gives him 44 catches (like your stat says). The QB affects catchable passes. Yes. Dropps only consider those which are catchable. Decker dropped 17% of the catchable passes thrown to him. As of Nov 27, he had 6 dropped passes already. http://sports.yahoo.com/news/eric-decker-needs-catch-football-153900250--nfl.html http://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/2012/09/24/john-fox-eric-decker-slid-catchandrun/15919/ http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000211-sports-and-racing-nfl/64622011 http://milehighsports.com/2012/09/24/merilatt-broncos-wide-receivers-dropping-the-ball/ http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-the-denver-broncos-nothing-in-the-postseason All articles from this year discussing or complaining about dropped passes by Bronco WRs. With Peyton throwing them the ball. And you're going to have season to season variation. When Chambers was here, Andre Johnson led the league in dropped passes for a couple of years. Now he has pretty good hands. Eric Decker is on the leaderboard for dropped passes both years. I think that should reflect negatively on him. The worst pass catchers routinely drop around 15% of catchable passes thrown at them, over 3 years. The best, 3%. https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/07/02/three-years-of-drop-rate-wide-receivers/ 2009-2011 Larry Fitz is on there with 3%. And who has he had throwing at him those three years?
And yet, you're assuming because someone determines a ball to catchable it automatically is. I am saying there's no way to know for sure. I'm correct in saying that. Hell, do they grade the "catchablity" of a caught ball, that way they can determine what took extraordinary effort for a WR to catch? And if so, what's the criteria for either?
All numbers aside, watching the Atlanta Falcons a team that WENT AFTER playmakers for Matt Ryan are a well oiled machine. It's their blueprint we should attempt to follow. Sadly I don't think Ireland has the gamble in him too find us a Julio Jones, but I welcome him to prove me wrong.
