Hartline wants 5-6 million per season

These are usually ploys by the agent. They set these high jumping off points as starting points for negotiations. At this point, I wouldn't jump to any conclusions.

 

I love how there's this entire thread dedicated to NO TOUCHDOWNS = NO MONEY **** HEARTLANE and no one actually does any serious analysis of what recent free agent contracts have looked like.

Robert Meachem got 4 years, 25.9 million last offseason
Laurent Robinson got 5 years, 32.5 million
Pierre ****ing Garcon got 5 years, 42.5 million.
Josh Morgan got 2 years, 11.5 million.

If this is true, Hartline is asking for a pretty reasonable contract.

 

By "obscure" I mean digging for something of questionable value like percentage of WR TDs to overall TDs to support your thesis when the more relevant and clearly more visible issue is the lack of WR TDs scored, period, a whopping 3 this year. You're trying to find, make sense of and justify obscure points, because you have no answers to the relevant and more obvious ones thart you can't escape. If your more obscure points like this one were better than the obvious issues like the actual number of WR TDs scored, that would be a different story- but they're not. Just because you like Brian Hartline, you can't make the issue of his crappy TD production go away. That issue certainly won't disappear in his contract negotiations. I'd love to be in the room if Hartline's agent told Ireland that the # of rec TDs doesn't matter. That would be good for a few laughs.

 

I am assuming you are talking about Hartline...he had 90 catches, 1,429 yards, 15.88 ypc, 12 TD at OSU.

Heading into this year he 109 catches, 1,670 yards, 15.32 ypc, 5 TD...while being thrown to by Henne and Moore. Compares favorable with Marshall's 9 TD on 147 catches during his time in Miami considering all the times Marshall was targeted in the end zone.

 

now how many times does brady throw against #2, #3, etc cbs? The whole point of football is to exploit matchups. So, I'm not really sure of your point? Are you saying all "1" receivers only face "1" cbs at all times?

 

No, that's what Adam was implying when saying Hartline's 8.46 YPA was from facing other teams' #1 corners.

 

right, so why pick on something so trivial then lol
Are you saying there is someone else on the team who faced the #1cb more then hartline?

 

That depends on where they are lined up.

 

You talk about this is as if you believe all NFL WRs are equally capable when it comes to red zone effectiveness, which is simply ridiculous.

 

What we all need to remember is the player contract demands are merely posturing. The team opens with a lowball offer, the player with a high request. They usually finally meet somewhere in the middle. No team starts with a top dollar offer and works their way down, nor does a player start with a ridiculously low demand and gradually increase as negotiations play out. If Hartline is asking for 5-6 mill, the team is probably offering 3-4, so they'll end up compromising if a deal is to be made.

 

The point is that they're all limited by the compression of the field in the routes they're able to run in that area, and passes going to them when they're lined up wide take longer to arrive and are therefore easier to defend than passes over the middle. All of that is true regardless of who the receiver is, which IMO generally makes wide receivers less desirable targets in the red zone for all teams.

Now, if you'd like to provide some objective data that shows that some receivers are significantly more capable than others in the red zone, I'd love to learn something via that methodology.

 

The general point is that in Brian Hartline's breakout year, he was receiving passes from a rookie QB. Also during that year, he scored fewer TDs per reception than he had previously.

Call that "obscure" if you'd like. To each his own.

 

And perhaps if he had been thrown passes from a very good QB, rather than a developmental rookie, he would've done much better overall.

 

You're the one that thinks all WRs are equally limited by the compressed field in the red zone, so you should provide some objective data to support your perception.

 

True, to each his own. What you look at as a breakout year I see as a rather average year punctuated by one huge game. No matter how you cut it Hartline scored 1 TD last year, and has a 4 year career average of 1.5 TD per year. It is what it is.

 

Sure, but he scored 1 TD on 70+ receptions. In previous years it didn't take as many receptions for him to score. The other unique thing about this year? Rookie QB. That's the point. For all we know his breakout year could've been accompanied by greater overall TD production with a higher performance QB delivering the ball.

 

I thought you were the one who said it was ridiculous to think that some receivers weren't better than others in the red zone?

Oh wait, you did:

What I'm saying is that they're all more limited in the red zone than players at other positions. You're the one who's saying that some wide receivers are better than others in the red zone. Like I said, I'd love to learn something from you if you're willing and able to produce some systematic, objective data on that.

 

I just split up my coffee thank you very much! First, if you are going to get rid of Bess you better get something in return. Second, Bess is going to make 2.6 mil this year, what are you really saving by cutting him? BTW, R Marshall is costing us 4.5 mil

 

I believe Marshall has already been reported to be cut soon to save cash.

 

in 2010 and 2011 Hartron caught 78 balls and scored two TD's. He has scored three TD's in his last 152 receptions…. just to put it in perspective.

 

that is the speculation on the boards BUT I think it will have something to do with they reach a contract agreement with Clemons. If they dont Marshall could be our starting FS next year

 

Hartron?

Precisely. So in the previous two years, he scored a TD every 39 receptions. In 2012 he scored a TD every 74 receptions.

That's my point: in his breakout year, his TD production per reception decreased. You think it's possible that may have been because he was being thrown passes by a developmental rookie?

 

This is true. Had he followed the trend set the previous 2 years he would have ended up with 2 TDs on the 74 receptions. The rookie year when he had 3 tds on 31 catches seems to be the odd ball year. Let's hope that changes. I wouldn't mind if he average a 1 TD ever 10 catches at all.

EDIT: Well, technically, he'd end up with 2 TDs on 78 catches. I'm no mathematician, but it sounds as though 1 TD over 74 could still be following the trend.

 

divide by 3. 4 Tds a year is ok. Guy is a decent player.

 

You're the one who is saying they're not. What are you basing it on? You're the obscure stats maven around here. Can you offer any that support your belief? I am going by the studies conducted at the University of My Eyes. Try watching them play the damned game. If you want to believe that guys like Bolden, White, Jackson, Marshall, Thomas, Jones, Green, Jones, et al, are no more effective in the red zone than Hartline or Bess, please feel free to continue with your delusion.
When it comes to TDs by WRs it is not just the red zone. Hartline was also unable to find the end zone more than once, even when operating from outside the opponent's 20 yd line.
I'm comparing WRs to WRs. Not WRs to TEs, or WRs to RBs. Improving the roster with better WRs who are able to operate more effectively in the red zone does not take away from the ability of one's TEs/RBs to operate there.

Going by your line of thinking, we may as well just resign Hartline, not sign anyone else in free agency, and keep on rolling with he and Bess as the starters, because having Jennings or Bowe or Wallace or any of the top WRs in the draft would not help our passing game and the ability to score in the passing game anyway, because Tannehill is just holding them back, and it would be the same no matter who our WRs were.

 

His rookie year is only an "odd ball year" if one ignores that his 2nd and 3rd year QBs targeted Marshall in the end zone, but only "always" (slight exaggeration) when it came to WRs.

 

Maybe... Doubt it thought. He is what he is.

 

I've said that in my opinion, receivers are less desirable targets in the red zone than players at other positions.

Not at the present time, which is why I specified that it was my opinion only.

What's a degree from there worth?

 

5-6 mill is nuts, I think we could sign someone at less than half that price to come in here and get his production or close to it. You can't overrate the lack of touchdowns, its so glaring that you cannot pay him like a playmaker when he is just a good but replaceable player. I wouldn't give him more than 3 mill a year, if he can get more than that then let him go. He's not that great, I like him, hope we can keep him but if he goes somewhere else we can replace him.

 

Can't throw the ball to himself, needs a QB to get him the ball. 4 TDs a year on 30 catches a year. Comes to a TD every 7.5 catches. Not bad. If there is one consistency so far his college/pro career it is that he hasn't had an above average passer throwing him the ball.

 

Reported by whom? I think the coaches were satisfied with R Marshall before he was injured. He's not been an injury prone player in the past, so why give up on him now? They apparently think he is a decent #2 corner, or else why sign him in the first place? It would seem IMO rather shortsighted to jettison him after only 4 games. We have a lot of cap room, why would they need to create more?

 

He just caught nearly double the passes and double the yards he had in any previous season. With that kind of jump in performance from one year to the next, I strongly doubt he "is what he is," or that you or I or anyone else here knows what that is for certain at the present time.

 

Minor point but it's not just speculation on the boards. Armando Salguero reported it to be likely.

 

Armando Salguero reported it and also provided a little more insight into exactly how badly Richard Marshall got hurt, and it sounded pretty bad. The acquisition of Dimitri Patterson, his contract level, along with how well Patterson played in the games he was here, likely means Richard Marshall is a goner. They considered Marshall and Patterson side by side during the off season when they were trying to figure which nickel corner they should sign. They decided on Richard Marshall. It's hard to imagine they don't, after everything that's happened, feel like that was a mistake and they should've gone with Patterson.

 

You also said all WRs are equally limited in the red zone, which would mean a guy like AJ Green has just as much trouble scoring in the red zone as Hartline does, but oh wait. He doesn't.
Comparing a WR inside the red zone, to himself outside the red zone, then yeah, I'd agree the compressed field would make it harder for him. But comparing one WR to another, and saying they are all equal red zone targets is completely ridiculous. I'd really doubt you could get any scout or coach to agree with you.

 

Name someone who has recently, then?

 

Lol or the guy is nothing but an average player. Much more likely

 

Not necessarily the whole 253 yard game, but the 80 yard touchdown was certainly an anomaly because at no point in his career has he shown that he can repeat it. Take away that one play and he has a very Greg Camarillo-like 73 catches for 1003 yards, 0 touchdowns on 117 targets with only 2 missed tackles created after the catch on the year. Take away Brandon Marshall's biggest play of the year and he's still got 117 catches for 1452 yards, and 11 touchdowns on 180 targets with 17 missed tackles created after the catch.

I wouldn't pay Hartline more than $4 million a year.

 

All I ever seen reported was it was some sort of back injury, and he later had surgery on it, after waiting for a few weeks to see if it would improve on it's own. I guess we shall see what happens with Marshall, one way or the other. This is only Mando reporting it so far. Is he always correct? I did not see any recent report from him that described the injury in greater detail.

 

Actually I didn't. I said that in my opinion, they're more limited than players at other positions.

But once again, I'm very happy to learn something from you about how some wide receivers are better than others at scoring TDs in the red zone, assuming it's based on a systematic, objective investigation.