Greg Jennings will be on NFLN tonight. He'll be on the Total Access show @ 7pm ET. They said he's going to talk about his future plans and where he thinks he might end up, etc. Just a heads up.
I think Greg Jennings' contract could be modeled after the one signed by Anquan Boldin in 2010 with the Baltimore Ravens. And not only was that contract reasonable, one could easily argue in the negotiations process that Jennings should be paid less. 1. Anquan Boldin was going to turn 30 years old in the upcoming NFL season, just like Greg Jennings. They were both 29, going on 30. In this, the two are similar. 2. Anquan Boldin's contract was 4 years, $29 million with $10 million guaranteed. That includes a $6.125 million signing bonus, a $2.875 first year roster bonus, and another $1 million in guarantees elsewhere in the deal. 3. Career-wise, the two were similar. Greg Jennings has 425 catches for 6537 yards and 53 touchdowns in 96 games. To that point in his career, Boldin had 586 catches for 7520 yards and 44 TDs in 95 games. Very similar, IMO...as the 1,000 extra yards balance against the 9 extra TDs. 4. However, Anquan Boldin was not coming off an injured year, unlike Jennings. Boldin caught 84 balls for 1024 yards and 4 TDs in 2009. Jennings only caught 46 balls for 481 yards and 5 TDs in 10 games of 2012, counting playoffs. Boldin also caught 103 balls for 1228 yards and 12 TDs in 15 games en route to a Super Bowl appearance in 2008. Jennings only caught 71 balls for 989 yards and 9 TDs in 14 games counting the playoffs in 2011. All in all, that's 187 catches for 2252 yards and 16 TDs in the two seasons immediately preceding the new contract for Anquan Boldin, versus 117 catches for 1470 yards and 14 TDs for Greg Jennings. That's a pretty big factor. 5. Should there be an inflation premium? Tough to say. The 2009 salary cap was $123 million. The 2010 season was uncapped, but most teams treated it like a capped year and the ones that did not were severely punished by Roger Goodell. When the salary cap was reinstituted in 2011, it was set to $120 million. There it remained in 2012, and it would appear it shall remain there in 2013 as well. If you're an NFL team you may even be able to argue that 2010 contracts are incomparable to 2013 contracts on the basis of there being no cap in 2010. That argument might not go over well, but the fact remains that because the NFLPA essentially "borrowed" in order to keep the 2011 salary cap at $120 million (should've been $116 million, just going off revenues) and to keep the 2012 cap at $120.6 million (should've been $113 million)...it means the 2014 salary cap is not actually going to go up much. The NFL projects that 2014 and 2015 salary caps should only be around $121-122 million. This means that contracts signed from 2009 to 2012 should be perfectly comparable to contracts negotiated in 2013...no inflation adjustment. Given all this there's actually a good chance that Greg Jennings' contract negotiations would come down to a price point that is similar to what Brian Hartline is currently asking. Brian Hartline wants 5 years, $33 million. That could actually be Greg Jennings' price point, except the deal would likely be shorter, around the same Boldin signed. If you're asking me whether I would take Greg Jennings or Brian Hartline at the same price...the answer is easy to me. And I don't think the Ravens regret giving Boldin that 4 year, $29 million deal. I've never seen Brian Hartline do this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=osxixxurzvk#t=279s
He was on NFL32 a couple days ago and they asked him specifically about Miami and Tannehill and he basically said it was definitely a team he was interested in. I'm sure it will be much of the same on NFLN.
On the phone for real? Heh. He said he'd like to play with Philbin again, but also any other team, really. Go fig, eh?
Boldin also had a guy named Kurt Warner throwing the ball to him. He also had Larry Fitzgerald on his team and most times when Fitz was double covered Warner threw the ball to Boldin. Boldin on the other hand free'd Fitzgerald up a lot. I do not think the stats are a good comparison. Yes GB has Rogers but those two resurected years Warner had in AZ were completely unreal. There wasn't a better QB , IMO, in the league for 2008. Jennings also has more injury concerns then Boldin did. Just sayin my opinion. Would love Jennings but not in the 30 mil range, no way.
Your logic is circular. Which was it, did Fitz free up Boldin or did Boldin at times free up Fitz? And it's hard to say Boldin had a great cast around him when, well... look at Green Bay, man.
I'd have no problem paying Jennings 5 years - 30 million. For what FAs are going for, that would be almost a bargain.. my guess is that he will cost closer to 4 years, 30 million
Yep. I dont get why people get into what players,agents, GM's say at this point. Its all meangingless really. No player is going to limit himself to one team as that team can just low ball the hell out of him. I follow baseball more but the theory still applies with FA. Damon said he would never play for the Yankees.. ooops. Sabathia wanted to play on the WC. ooops. Everyone had Crawford going to the Angels... ooops. etc etc etc etc
People also need to remember that FA isn't the same as it was a couple years ago. With the new Rookie wage scale it actually lets teams pay players who have produced on the field. FA's are going to get more money because rooks are not chewing it all up.
I realize we're talking the seasons immediately before his contract, but in 2003, before Fitzgerald and with Jeff Blake / Josh McCown at QB Boldin put up 101 catches for 1,337 yards and 8 TDs.
No one. Just making a comment after you saying he said Miami was definitely a team he was interested in. He would say that about any team. I think it means nothing. ^^^^THIS^^^^^ (Usually) I just hope he really does come here.
I'm still of the train of thought to forgo re-signing Brian Hartline and attempting to sign Greg Jennings. I think you could target Cordarrelle Patterson at 12 overall and look to draft someone later on. Marquise Goodwin would be my ideal choice to round out the WR corps.
Hartline is the kind of player that is an amazing #3 and a solid #2.... so not many people would have a problem with this scenario (IF) the TE position is also addressed, though. It's all going to come down to what position the team is going to painfully neglect.
Well, if you look at Davone Bess' numbers, he was just about on the same path as Brian Hartline was in catches, yards, and TDs last year before he missed the final 3 games or whatever it was. Do you really need two players like that? I think Jennings and Patterson, whichever of them is the "2" both represent upgrades to Brian Hartline, and provide more athleticism after the catch than Hartline does. Just my two cents, while I acknowledge that Brian Hartline is a good player, I think Miami's got the opportunity to really improve that unit. Hartline serves a purpose to be sure, but if you already have a similar player in Davone Bess, why continue being purposefully redundant? The combination of Hartline, Bess, and some other receiver hasn't really produced dynamic results; even when that other player was Brandon Marshall. I think the receiving corps could use a serious injection of athleticism and speed. Jennings and Patterson, in my opinion, give you that option more than Bess, Hartline, and Rishard Matthews. I do fear that Mike Wallace would become an immediate target if Miami does re-sign Hartline. While he brings speed, at what opportunity cost are you bringing him in at if you're paying him $9-11M per year, like he wants?
Bold Truth. Its all just speculation until something actually happens in March. Now i've been on the bandwagon for 2 things thus far.. first is I don't mind keeping hartline at all, although it has to be for a reasonable amount .... (and stop tripping/falling). and the other is that I honestly think Jennings -> MIA is a done deal, hate saying it but i'd put money on it if i had to. Now if the team does it. (Jennings + Hartline + Z) the bigger mystery is the Z, i.e. "playmaker option".... patterson @ 1.... another FA pick up... maybe another WR... maybe a TE. Who knows. With some of these mocks showing Star L. available at 12 and us taking Patterson... regardless of need i think its kinda nuts. Is JI gunna break the mold and go balls deep in FA or just rely on a 1st pick WR to blow it up? I completely agree that im not too thrilled with New FA pickup + hart + bess. its been cycled, and its underwhelming. and I would really like patterson + jennings for the dynamic injection you're speaking of....but I just really don't know anymore. I'm hesitant about shiney new&good things happening.
Absolutely correct, and Philbin wasn't high on him, instructed Ireland to lowball him, and Philbin was proven right as Flynn rode the bench all year. Given that, if we sign Jennings I'll be ecstatic, but if he signs elsewhere I'll be fine with it, because I trust Philbin when it comes to these particular evaluations.