I already have a free agency thread but I felt this position is so incredibly loaded that it deserves it's own thread. Here are the free agents, as I know them. I have included snaps data from 2012 just to show how much these guys all played, along with PFF's total grade on the player. Negative grades are in parentheses. BLT Cary Williams - 1101 - (2.2) MIA Sean Smith - 1068 - (3.1) SD Antoine Cason - 1051 - (10.2) PHI Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - 1020 - (7.1) SD Quentin Jammer - 1016 - (10.0) ATL Dunta Robinson - 950 - 1.7 PIT Keenan Lewis - 943 - 3.2 CAR Captain Munnerlyn - 936 - 0.3 DET Chris Houston - 931 - 7.4 CLV Sheldon Brown - 903 - 7.9 CIN Terence Newman - 878 - 8.6 NE Kyle Arrington - 844 - 2.4 TB E.J. Biggers - 816 - 3.8 JAX Derek Cox - 777 - (2.5) CIN Adam Jones - 608 - 11.1 DET Jacob Lacey - 596 - (0.9) NE Aqib Talib - 592 - (2.2) OAK Joselio Hanson - 571 - 4.3 IND Jerraud Powers - 514 - (4.4) JAX Rashean Mathis - 486 - (3.6) CHI Kelvin Hayden - 472 - (2.9) HST Brice McCain - 462 - (9.1) DET Patrick Lee - 439 - (0.2) KC Stanford Routt - 411 - (5.7) TEN Ryan Mouton - 392 - (7.0) IND Darius Butler - 380 - 5.5 SL Bradley Fletcher - 374 - 3.7 DAL Mike Jenkins - 374 - (6.9) WAS Cedric Griffin - 369 - (0.2) CHI D.J. Moore - 368 - 3.1 SEA Marcus Trufant - 365 - 1.1 BUF Leodis McKelvin - 354 - 3.8 DEN Tracy Porter - 317 - (2.1) DET Drayton Florence - 310 - (5.1) ARZ Greg Toler - 308 - 6.8 JAX William Middleton - 199 - (4.5) ATL Chris Owens - 176 - 4.9 BUF Terrence McGee - 145 - (3.9) OAK Shawntae Spencer - 113 - (0.5) DAL Michael Coe - 108 - (0.9) HST Alan Ball - 85 - (1.0) BLT Chris Johnson - 82 - (1.9) ARZ Michael Adams - 77 - 3.6 DET Alphonso Smith - 53 - 0.0 ATL Brent Grimes - 52 - (1.3) CHI Zackary Bowman - 21 - 1.7 SD Chris Carr - 3 - 0.0 Approximately 26.4 percent of all corner snaps from 2012 are up for grabs. That's insane. I can't imagine that being normal.
I liked Bradley Fletcher quite a bit coming out of Iowa- he'd be interesting to me, but the injury history is not good. Might be a player to look in to, I don't know.
Pacman... <ahem>... Adam Jones is PFF's highest rated free agent CB? That's pretty interesting. I'd have to imagine that he's not on the Phins radar due to his history, but it's interesting nonetheless. It is good to see some options out there. I'd hate to see the Phins getting caught in a pinch having to overpay for Sean Smith just to have a body out there at corner.
I think Jax Cb's could be undervalued due to their poor pass rush. DRC has really fallen off, as in a cliff, wonder if the hot mess in philly this past season really effected his level of play?
The guys I like are Derek Cox, Chris Houston, E.J. Biggers, Bradley Fletcher and Chris Owens. Like many others here, I think Greg Toler is another guy I would have to consider...but I need to actually sit down and watch him before I can say that for sure. Don't discount the possibility of a short-term rental in Terrance Newman. Jeff Ireland was once part of the scouting staff that had to take Bill Parcells to dinner and get him drunk enough to accept that Jerry Jones had sided with them rather than Tuna in the decision to draft Terrance Newman in the 1st round at #5 overall instead of DT Kevin Williams, who was Parcells' binky in that particular draft. He may be old, but he went to Cincinnati this year and played really well as the starting left corner in the same defense that Kevin Coyle hails from. Sean Smith plays primarily left corner.
They have to. You have over a quarter of the league's entire pool of corner snaps with expiring contracts. That doesn't just represent supply. It also represents demand.
Buyer's market. A lot of average to above average corners out there. With our cap space, especially sans Jake Long, we should be able to get at least one of the top 5 or so and probably one of the mid tier guys if Marshall or Patterson are let go. The draft will water down the pool even more so I'm not worried about DB at all. OT is pretty well stocked as well, so the challenge will be WR, TE, RB, and FS. Good luck Jeff.
The numbers, should also mean that Patterson might be more willing to restructure/extend his contract. Maybe Marshall too.
From what I know of Patterson's personality, I doubt it. Richard Marshall is a different story though. We'll see on him.
Keenan Lewis is a very underrated CB IMO and someone I would take a hard look at. I think he will be a huge bargain for someone.
I've talked about Michael Adams as a slot corner before. He's a guy I would look at that has drawn my eye. He had the 3rd lowest yards per completion (8.17) of any corner in this free agent class this year. Normally you'd just chalk that up to sample pool (56 coverage snaps). But last year he played 264 coverage snaps and had nearly the same yards per completion number (8.66). The average for the free agent class in this stat is 12.26 yards per completion. But it should be noted as a slot corner, that number is naturally going to be a little lower. But how much lower? Among players that allowed at least 10 receptions while playing slot corner, the average amongst them was 10.80 yards per completion. So as a slot player, Michael Adams for the last two years has been playing above-average. Jimmy Wilson by the way allowed 10.97 yards per completion on him in the slot.
Marsall gets a bad rap IMO. He's not great but for 5 Millie he's damn good. He can play press, off, man, zone, inside, outside, he tackles, he can blitz, he can play FS and ST, he's kinda like the Dansby of CBs. I hope his back isn't too bad bc he'd be an excellent #2. Dunno much about Patterson and I won't be bored enough to go back and watch until basketball season is over so...any thoughts?
Among safeties, Glover Quin is a free agent and he allowed very few yards per completion from the slot as a corner...only 7.78 yards. Dimitri Patterson was allowing 8.83 yards per completion from the slot when Cleveland gave him the boot. Captain Munnerlyn is another guy whose analytics come out really good looking, whom I need to actually take a look at more on film. I've seen him play while looking at other Panthers defenders on film. He's stood out. But I need to dive into him specifically. Only 7.68 yards per completion on 43 attempts toward him in the slot. And yet, his yards per attempt from the perimeter was also good at 7.24 yards per attempt.
Patterson to me is a better nickel slot corner. He's always been good there, for years. Teams generally make a mistake putting him on the field at perimeter corner and asking him to play there. That gets him the bad tape he fears. But it bothered me to hear that he told the Cleveland Browns he wouldn't go back on the field until he was 100% healthy because he didn't want to put out any bad tape. It's one reason they released him. Then in Miami he gets hurt in his 2nd game with the team. At $4.5 million for the year, that's rich for a player with that kind of attitude. You never know when he's going to pull up lame and decide he's not going to play anymore. Richard Marshall should have been a safety from the get-go. He'd have been an OK signing as a safety. To sign him and play him at perimeter corner the way the Dolphins did was a mistake. There was a reason only the Cardinals and Dolphins were after him and that the Cardinals' offer was way below the Dolphins' offer (he admitted this himself, later after signing). He is a liability when being taken deep in single coverage. He either allows the completion or gets the pass interference call. Watch the tape in Arizona and you will see it. Watch his Baltimore tape. That proved out in Miami. I would release him, unless I planned on having him try out as Chris Clemons' replacement.
If analytics and metrics are becoming the new "it" thing in the NFL then there should be a good amount of demand for: Ryan Mouton Captain Munnerlyn Marcus Trufant Keenan Lewis Adam Jones Amongst guys that had at least 30 balls either caught on them or knocked away by them (combined), those were the guys that came out lowest on modified yardage per completion stat (which counted as the denominator the combination of completions and passes defensed).
I've been high on Bradley Fletcher for a while. When the guy is on the field he produces. Also don't think his price tag will be all that unreasonable.
Now trying to weed out slot and perimeter performance since they're such apples to oranges. Best perimeter metrics belong to: 1. Bradley Fletcher 6.4 ypc 2. Keenan Lewis 9.3 ypc 3. Adam Jones 9.5 ypc 4. Jerraud Powers 10.0 ypc t-5. Terrance Newman/Antoine Cason/Captain Munnerlyn 10.1 ypc 8. Sean Smith 10.3 ypc t-9. Chris Houston/Kelvin Hayden/Sheldon Brown 10.7 ypc The best slot performers were Captain Munnerlyn, Ryan Mouton and Marcus Trufant. I think overall the big metrics/analytics winners would be Keenan Lewis and Adam Jones. I would add Captain Munnerlyn to the list because of his versatility placing high on both the perimeter as well as the slot. Bradley Fletcher is the wild card. I only say so because he placed well in both categories yet the sample pool was small enough that you're not sure how much to trust it.
When was the last time Jones was in trouble for something? I doubt we take a chance on him but it seems he's changed.
We're in a unique position in that Kevin Coyle can personally attest to whether it looks as if Adam Jones really has changed or not, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him brought on board.
The supply makes it a buyer market for sure, and IMO three quarters of them are no better than Marshall and Patterson. My guess would be Jeff keeps both, signs a middle tier corner, and drafts one in the top 3 rounds.
I tried to focus on Patterson in the 15th game, and I liked how he moved out there. Seemed pretty alert and aware. I think you could do much worse as your nickel corner. He wasn't bad on the boundary either from what I could see.
Maybe it is a perception thing and not reality, however in Seattle Trufant's play in the slot was constantly panned. Everyone always wondered why he wasn't taken off of the field. Especially after the Dolphins game, (which it is fun to listen to the radio after the Dolphins beat Seattle), how they were mentioning that Miami was able to come back when they started going after Trufant.
Based off of what I've seen, I think those metrics are accurate on Trufant. He has done some things well in the slot whilst not the same outside.
He's not been in trouble with the law in Cincinnati. I do know he's been kicked out of several bars/clubs, but I don't think that's anything major. Hopefully Coyle could shed some more light on him.
I've been beating on the Chris Houston drum for quite some time. See if you can get him for 3 years 15 mil 8 guaranteed and just run with it.
I've taken some looks at Keenan Lewis and felt like at the end I was no closer to really having a bead on him than when I started, if that makes sense. But the metrics and analytics tell me I need to look again. I knew that already, he's too good to just not have an opinion on one way or another. I like Derek Cox. I like E.J. Biggers. I like Chris Houston. Provided none tries to rape me in negotiations, I would sign any one of those. But Keenan Lewis for me is still all over the board. He could be the best of all of them, or he could be a guy I steer clear of.
Lewis is a good player. Physical and can man cover. Gets his hands on many passes. He's always been this way, really, going back to OSU.
I believe you're confusing Keenan Lewis and Keenan Allen, which I keep doing too. But yeah I can't take as long a look at Lewis as I did and come away seeing nothing. I just haven't decided on him relative to price. He's good in man. He's fast and can run. I can see how he allows catches because I think he can be a little slow and soft mirroring players, not cutting sharp or aggressive enough angles (Cox and Cary Williams are good at that). But I can also see why a yards per completion number for him would be low because he's a safe player. He's a bigger, more athletic version of Antoine Cason in some ways. But no interceptions. And only 1 interception in 2011 as a part time player. Not exactly adding the ballhawk qualities they seem to covet.
You can easily replicate Smith's production for 65% of what that tag would have cost. Tagging Sean Smith would only make sense if you're absolutely convinced he's about to make that jump into the elite market, and if you were convinced of that I'd try to have you committed.
