Can We Now Retire the Draft-Day Cliche "Plug Him in for the Next 10 Years"?

lol

 

This topic/gripe/***** certainly needed a new thread.

All the others were getting stale.

 

If he didn't have some serious injuries, then you would have a point.

 

You are right ... lets just draft Lane Johnson, plug him in for the next 10 years and move on ...

 

Fans have wildly unrealistic expectations of the draft.

If you look at the 2002 draft(the last "finished" 10 year period) there is by my count only one guy still playing for his original team- Brent Keisel. Theoretically Ed Reed or Quentin Jammer could re-sign, but that's 3 players out of 261 drafted players. None of the noteworthy UDFAs are with their original teams, either.

 

Tannehill says no, cliche still works. Pouncey agrees.

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I think his injuries prove your point wrong.

If Matt Ryan got a few freak injuries and had a Chad Pennington type career, does that make him a lesser draft choice?

 

I've always hated this saying. Even if the player ends up being a good draft choice, it ignores how long ten years actually is.

 

That is a good point

 

How many of those guys were selected #1 overall?

Your point is duly noted. First round picks should not be expected, by fans, to be on the team that drafted them for 10 years.

#1 overall picks, on the other hand.....yeah.... they should

 

Well that's good then. Because he didn't have serious injuries.

 

Really? he was on IR twice, leg injury, and the dreaded back injury.

 

He went on IR in week 14 and week 13.

If your team is not in the playoff hunt by week 15 and you're a pro-bowl caliber player, the team is putting you on IR for a stomach virus (note that I am exaggerating slightly here)

 

Now this point requires it's own thread.

 

I don't agree with your point.

Long spent the entire offseason rehabilitating. So far he has spent this entire offseason rehabilitating.

 

Well, they don't actually. You might wanna go take a look at the history of #1 picks. It's virtually the same %.

 

Thank you for this. Remember that Clyde Gates was the next Mike Wallace. Gates was going to "take the top off" the defense. He hardly sniffed the field. Remember how good Pat White was going to be running the wildcat? LOL

Seriously though, what are they going to do to fill the gaping holes at corner, tight end, defensive end, left tackle, running back...I hope most people don't think they will be drafting to fill those positions. If so, it is going to be a long long year.

 

They should but they aren´t:

Let´s see:
1995 Ki-Jana Cartner RB Cincy released in 1999
1996 Keyshawn Johnson WR NY Jets traded in 2000 to the Bucs
1997 Orlando Pace OT St. Louis released in 2009
1998 Peyton Manning QB Indianapolis released 2011
1999 Tim Couch QB Cleveland released in 2003
2000 Courtney Brown DE Cleveland Signed as a FA by Denver in 2004
2001 Michael Vick QB Atlanta Everybody knows the story
2002 David Carr QB Houston released by them in 2006
2003 Carson Palmer QB Cincy trades to Oakland in 2010
2004 Eli Manning QB San Diego traded within minutes to the Giants.
2005 Alex Smith QB 49érs traded to KC in 2013
2006 Mario Williams DE Houston signed as a FA with the Bills in 2012
2007 JaMarcus Russell QB Oakland released in 2009
2008 Jake Long OT Miami signed as a FA with St. Louis in 2013

Since 1995 only Pace and Peyton made it to the 10 year mark with the team that drafted them 1st overall. Maybe you could add Rivers/Eli whomever you see as the 1st overall from that year.

 

Is that is expected by fans really relevant? Part of the reason fans expect No. 1 overall picks to be on the team that drafted them 10 years later is because they keep hearing the "plug him in for the next 10 years" thing. The truth is that it is pretty rare for even No. 1 overall picks to be with the same team 10 years later. Of the No. 1 overall picks between 1982 and 2002 (i.e., the ones for whom a 10 year period has already run), only 5 of the 20 No. 1 overall picks were with the team that drafted them 10 years later. And for the first 10 years of that period there was no real free agency.

 

Yes we do. In a year we desperately needed a QB, I wanted us to draft a franchise QB who usually stay on past 5 years if they are any good. But our staff and GM thought that Henne was going to be just as good as Ryan and Flacco. You can imagine how excited they were in the draft room when he was still available at 2b.

 

Wow, i'm surprised Alex Smith made it that far. 8 years is quite the accomplishment. Imagine how solid he would be with consistent, good coaching. He developed a little under Norv Turner. But the turnstyle in coaching in SF doomed him.

 

The only other Lineman on the list by overseas turned out to be a HOF Tackle and was certainly a guy St. Louis drafted and plugged him in for 10+ years.

There's a much higher risk when taking a QB #1 overall. When you select a Tackle #1 overall, you do it full well thinking "I don't have to worry about drafting another LT for quite a while" whereas when you draft a QB #1 overall not named Andrew Luck you do it thinking "I really hope I don't have to do this again in 4 years"

 

I was one of the most vocal about drafting long over ryan.You don't build your franchise around a left tackle.You build it around the qb.Matt ryan will be the qb of the falcons for 10 years and then some and jake will be out of the league in 2 or 3 because he is breaking down.Thought parcells was smarter than that but I guess I was wrong.

 

Again, the assessment was that Ryan/Flacco/Henne were all similar in ability. This was echoed by the 3 who scouted them, Sparano, Ireland and Henning.

Parcells ran with that, and decided Long was the safer pick. So it is what it is. I don't fault them too much for that assessment, but for not taking a risk in Ryan, or doing a better job of scouting Ryan.

 

Quarterback by far and away is the most likely position to end up playing for the same team when taken #1 overall. I don't know how you have any grounds to believe Tackle is a safer pick.

 

I think Ryan would have been gone about the same time as Henne was for us. I don't think he would have been any more successful at overcoming Henning.

 

If he had some serious injuries you might have a point but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Rough estimate it is aproximately 120 months

 

he sure has a point....jake long, mario williams, alex smith

 

But the argument many did make was that Jake was exceptional and be around longer than the average. It was the argument many made to counter those that expressed displeasure in not selecting a more impactful player with that pick. The OP does have room to rub it in some peoples noses. Im not saying it was a terrible pick but it didn't live up to its billing either.

 

You have already lost your bet.

 

Not according to his doctors

 

Much of that is due to injury though. Even with the injuries, he still got a deal worth around $9 million per year. Had he been healthy the last few years it probably would have been more like $11-12 million/yr. That's a sign of a very good player. Of course, in free agency part of the equation is how much is someone else willing to pay. At some point the numbers just don't make sense, even if the player is a great one.

 

That is just saying things just to say things.

 

NO I am saying he hasnt had any injuries that he isnt or wasnt suppose to have a 100% recovery from. I never said he hast gotten hurt. I am saying none of his injuries are that serious which is why he got the offer he got. Its not even like he has had any nagging injuries that have not healed up.

Maybe the problem is that we define serious differently, whats your definition of it?

 

He hasn't fully recovered from his knee injury and his back injury is also very troublesome. It is easy to see that he doesn't have the same power and quickness as he did during his first two years in the league.

The reason he got the offer that he got was because of his injuries. He got a worse contract than his rookie contract. With only $16 million guaranteed. He is making less money this year than his voided rookie contract. If he was 100% healthy, he could have easily gotten more money and I have little doubt that Miami would have given him a sweeter offer.

My definition is injuries that reduce his ability to play at his full capacity. Which in the last two years, he hasn't.

 

I'm not sure who you're going to pin that on or hold accountable for that. The reality is you can't justify anything as a sure thing or as a 10-year starter. I'm not sure why you think anyone should have to if you really can't.