Hyde: Everything is at stake for Ireland, Philbin and Tannehill

I agree. There's very little chance that Philbin would survive an Ireland ouster. Realistically one of two things will happen. Either the team plays well enough that all three are kept or the team fails so badly that all three are gone. The chances that Ireland is fired and Philbin is retained are slim at best and even lower that he would be retained for more than one lame duck year.

 

When Coughlin is on the hot seat he wins Super Bowls.

 

It's not about whether or not I approve. I actually like to see players, coaches and front-office personnel being given the chance to develop. I'm rarely the guy who is on here exhorting the team to sign the big name. But the reality in the NFL is that GMs tend to be given the power to hire their own coaches and almost always do either immediately or within a year.

 

Obviously SB wins give any coach more power. Ironically, if that happened in the lame duck year after Ireland were fired, he probably would have done it primarily with players Ireland brought in.

 

If Ireland decides on his own to leave after this season and the Dolphins finish with a winning record, I would have no problem with Philbin being part of the process in hiring a new GM. If on the other hand, Ireland is not retained as the GM because the team has a losing season again, I would hope that Ross would go out and hire the best GM he could and Philbin should not be a part of the process.

The new GM could then come in and evaluate all the coaches and players and decide who should stay and who should go.

I need to see a lot more from Philbin as a head coach before I am willing to accept that he should have any say in the hiring of the teams GM. One 7-9 season certainly doesn't seem to entitle him to a say in who the next GM will be for the Dolphins. So far he hasn't shown that he is a better HC than Sparano and I would have to guess that no one on here would have wanted Sparano helping to hire the teams GM.

Maybe after the 2013 season I will feel better about Philbin. Right now though, he has a losing record as an NFL head coach and that is all I have to go by.

 

How about this: Both Philbin and Ireland will be fine because we'll finally have a winning record this year!?

 

I'd be okay with that.

 

Let's test this theory that the General Manager tends to be given the chance to hire his own head coach by doing a quick survey around the NFL.

New York Jets - Head Coach Rex Ryan hired in 2009, GM John Idzik hired in 2013
New England Patriots - Nick Caserio hired by Bill Belichick
Buffalo Bills - Head Coach Doug Marrone hired BEFORE GM Doug Whaley was hired in 2013

Pittsburgh Steelers - GM Kevin Colbert was hired during Cowher's tenure, helped hire Mike Tomlin only because Cowher retired
Baltimore Ravens - GM Ozzie Newsome hired Head Coach John Harbaugh
Cincinnati Bengals - The owner is the GM, nuff said
Cleveland Browns - Head Coach Rob Chudzinski was hired BEFORE GM Michael Lombardi in 2013

Tennessee Titans - Head Coach Mike Munchak hired in 2011. GM Ruston Webster promoted in 2012
Indianapolis Colts - GM Ryan Grigson was hired before Head Coach Chuck Pagano (by 2 weeks) in 2012
Jacksonville Jaguars - GM David Caldwell was hired before Head Coach Gus Bradley (by 2 weeks) in 2013
Houston Texnans - Head Coach Gary Kubiak hired BEFORE GM Rick Smith in 2006

Denver Broncos - EVP Football Ops John Elway hired before Head Coach John Fox (by 2 weeks) in 2011
Oakland Raiders - GM Reggie McKenzie hired before Head Coach Dennis Allen (by 3 weeks) in 2012
Kansas City Chiefs - Head Coach Andy Reid hired BEFORE GM John Dorsey in 2013
San Diego Chargers - GM Tom Telesco hired before Head Coach Mike McCoy (by 1 week) in 2013

New York Giants - Head Coach Tom Coughlin hired in 2004, GM Jerry Reese hired in 2007
Washington Redskins - GM Bruce Allen hired a year before Mike Shanahan but everyone knows Shanahan was the owner's decision
Philadelphia Eagles - GM Howie Roseman never had the authority to fire Andy Reid, it was done by Lurie eventually for performance reasons
Dallas Cowboys - The owner is the GM, nuff said

Chicago Bears - GM Phil Emery was explicitly given the right to fire Lovie Smith and hire his own guy a year after hired
Detroit Lions - GM Martin Mayhew helped hire Head Coach Jim Schwartz in 2009
Minnesota Vikings - Head Coach Leslie Frazier hired in 2011, Rick Spielman promoted to GM in 2012
Green Bay Packers - GM Ted Thompson hired in 2005, fires Mike Sherman after a year, hires Mike McCarthy

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - GM Mark Dominik and Head Coach Raheem Morris were literally elevated at the same time, eventually Raheem fired for performance, Dominik helped hire Greg Schiano
Atlanta Falcons - GM Thomas Dimitroff hired before Head Coach Mike Smith (by 2 weeks) in 2008
New Orleans Saints - GM Mickey Loomis hired Head Coach Sean Payton in 2006
Carolina Panthers - Head Coach Ron Rivera hired in 2011, GM Dave Gettleman hired in 2013

St. Louis Rams - Head Coach Jeff Fisher was hired BEFORE GM Les Snead
San Francisco 49ers - GM Trent Baalke and Head Coach Jim Harbaugh hired simultaneously, but Harbaugh had say in the GM interview process
Seattle Seahawks - Head Coach Pete Carroll was hired BEFORE GM John Schneider
Arizona Cardinals - GM Steve Keim promoted before Head Coach Bruce Arians hired (by a week) in 2013

I tally that as only 12 out of the other 31 teams in the NFL today having explicitly hired their General Manager with the right to fire the new Head Coach and hire a new one, or being hired in the same year as the new coach but a number of weeks BEFORE him so that the new GM would have the opportunity to be the one doing the hiring.

Now, it's true that this time next year we could be looking at Ron Rivera and Rex Ryan being fired and Dave Gettleman and John Idzik respectively getting to hire their own guy. So maybe that figure creeps up to 14 out of the other 31 teams.

But I think it's pretty obvious that this isn't even the LEADING way things happen, and so it wouldn't be as "obvious" as many try and make it out to be that if the Dolphins let Jeff Ireland walk when his contract is up, Joe Philbin would not survive the new GM hire.

 

....and yet the argument exists that Ireland had full autonomy during Parcells tenure to the point that every decision from Long over Ryan to the hiring of Sparano is entirely his fault.

 

All those situations where the HC and GM are hired the same year are also examples of cleaning house where everybody is on the the same time frame. That is not the same thing as having a coach in place for a couple of years and then bringing in a new GM as some are proposing would be likely here. And most of the cases where a GM was brought in for a coach already in place for a couple of years are situations where the HC has some juice. That's also not the case here.

 

I could easily see a scenario where Ireland is let go but Philbin is kept (for at least one more year), especially if Philbin was Ross's choice like everyone reported. I mean that's what I would do if we don't have a winning record. Ross has already been more than generous keeping Ireland despite his inability to build a winning team, a losing season now in his put up or shut up contract year and the loyalty will have run it's course.

Philbin on the other hand would have only been here 2 years. If it comes to that I personably wouldn't care much whether Philbin is kept or not, because a new GM and coach wouldn't necessarily blow up the team, nor would they automatically want their own quarterback. When the Rams fired both Spagnuolo and Billy Devaney I'm sure a lot of fans who supported Bradford were worried that a new coach and GM would signal the end of his short time in St. Louis, instead Jeff Fisher and Les Snead made it clear that they had faith in the kid, so much so that they passed on one of the most dynamic QB prospects to come into the draft in a while.

look at Cleveland, Weeden had an extremely rough rookie season, Browns cleaned house and yet Weeden is still the guy going forward (for now).

And if Tannehill improves enough this year to put up something like 24 & 12, but for whatever reason it doesnt translate to enough wins to compete for a playoff spot, there's a good chance he'll still have shown enough promise to earn the trust of a completely new regime...arguably more promise than Bradford who actually regressed a bit from his rookie year.

 

The problem with Philbin sticking around if Ireland is fired is, you narrow your pool when you tell prospective GM's they are to keep Philbin.

 

No more or less than when the Dolphins told prospective Head Coaches that Jeff Ireland is going to be their General Manager.

 

maybe not if you tell them they only have to keep him for 1 season of evaluation, then after that it's their call.

 

Here's another thing.

People like to come up with all kinds of examples of where a GM was hired for an existing Head Coach and the Head Coach was fired shortly after.

Can anyone come up with an example of an instance where that happened and the coach clearly didn't deserve it? The head coach went on to succeed elsewhere? Mike Sherman is probably the closest I can think of but then again, the man was fired as a college head coach too.

 

A.J. Smith had been in place in San Diego for years by the time Schottenheimer was fired.

What I'm talking about is the scenario everyone brings up, which is that we hire a new GM and that GM maybe gives the new Head Coach a year to impress him but if not, he fires him. The Mike Holmgren/Eric Mangini type scenario.

Phil Emery was promoted from within and specifically told upon being hired that he did not have the power to fire Lovie Smith and hire a new coach for one year. He must give Lovie another year to try and get them over the hump. That year went up and they didn't make the playoffs, so Emery fired him. Did Lovie deserve it? I don't know, I know a lot of people in Chicago certainly think so. We'll see if Lovie ever coaches anywhere else and does well...but he's kind of in Dave Wannstedt territory.

What I'm trying to get at is if a new GM does come on and then Joe Philbin does get fired a year later...what are the chances that Philbin did NOT deserve the firing? That seems to be what people fear, that a new GM will want to hire his own Head Coach and so he'll throw Philbin out underservedly. What are the chances that Philbin's firing is truly undeserved and that the guy turns out to be a heck of a coach?

I think the reality is this:

If Jeff Ireland is allowed to walk out without a new contract then Joe Philbin will be part of the hiring of a new General Manager just like Jeff Ireland was a part of the hiring of Joe Philbin. The new guy would be chosen with the understanding that he works with Joe Philbin hand-in-hand, neither answerable to the other but both answerable to the owner. And a year later, if Joe Philbin is hired and a new coach search takes place, it will MOST LIKELY be because Philbin isn't really a top tier head coach, and they'll focus on getting one of those. On the other hand, if Joe Philbin is the coach we hope he is, most likely he will NOT be fired at the request of this new GM.

All this fear of this or that is unbased and unwarranted, IMO.

 

If Philbin did get another year under a new GM and he succeeded it would most likely be b/c RT and the other players acquired by Ireland over the last two seasons worked out.

 

Maybe. Or maybe the new guy makes some smart acquisitions and doesn't leave any blatant holes on the roster.

 

Besides RG, what do you consider blatant holes?

 

Odds far favor it being guys like RT and Jordan developing and players like Ellerbe and Grimes sticking around and excelling. A new guy might fill in a few holes well, but primarily it will most likely be b/c of the acquisitions these last two seasons.

 

Most people would say RG and LT.

 

I don't know that LT is all that blatant, is it? I've heard conflicting stories on how well he's doing.

https://twitter.com/EyesOffTheBalls/status/368431321796083712

 

corner opposite Grimes...could be picked on all season.

 

Don't disagree there.

 

"Blatant holes" makes it sound like Ireland has a assembled a roster that is just full of holes that no one cared to address or consider, where as other teams have no holes anywhere.

- For example, someone just brought up the corner spot opposite Grimes. How is that a hole? We have two solid veterans vying for the spot and two rookies coming up behind them. How many teams have it significantly better than us at all corner spots?
- The phantom oline holes. We have 3 Pro Bowl players on oline right now, in addition to a 2nd rd pick. What's so blatant about that?

 

Left tackle. Right guard. Perimeter corner. Second tailback.

Also running sub-optimal at second tight end, slot receiver and free safety, though I'm not sure I'd call those holes.

Depth is an issue at all three linebacker spots (still), safety (still), tackle, tailback and receiver.

 

Who said it wasn't going to happen in Miami? My point was that no one should assume that would be the case in Miami just because thats the higher percentage.

What's the circumstances for Irelands firing?
What's considered a complete failure in Ross's eyes? (your's and mine dont matter) Is it low expectations? 8-8 7-9 no playoffs? Is it a complete break down" 2-4 wins?

In your +95% number how many situations were complete break downs (too many to name) or too little too long (Lovie Smith, Marty Schottenhiemer) compared to coaching was solid but talent isnt there/mishandling of the cap/poor FA?

Sure if it is a complete break down then of course one would think its an overhaul. i dont think anyone disputes that, but what is Ross's expectations for the team? If he thinks Playoffs and we miss them by going 9-7 is that the breaking point? And is that worth over hauling everything? So it's not naive to think Philbin/Thill are safe in Miami depending on the circumstances of Ross's expectations. And comparing other new GM/incumbant coaching staff sistuations is irrelivent, it's close minded to think that because it didnt work there it wont work here.

 

I agree with that that..erase your memory about his past, and look at the reps this year, he's been above average against inferior competition.

 

I think 9 and 7 is completely acceptable with all kind of arrows pointing up for a young team, and a 2nd year head coach...see Gary Kubiac.

 

I agree, but what is Ross's feeling on it? (playing devils advocate deej)

 

Winning streak to end it. Up.
Hot start followed by slump ...

 

well, I think he's a smart man, not to reactionary, wants to win for the right reasons, I think a two game improvement with this young of roster and a 2nd year head coach is a fair timeline of improvement.

 

I realize you're just making a point to DJ and point well-taken (Ireland probably would be in trouble if things went South after a raise-the-expectations beginning), but if I allow myself to go on a tangent for a minute...

...gimme that hot start. Say 4-1. Then, let's say 3-1 against the Bills/Jets, for arguments sake. 7-2. If we were good enough to run the gamut of those first 5 games at 4-1, I have to believe we'd be better than 2-5 against the remainder of our schedule (Pats (2), Bengals, Bucs, Chargers, Panthers, Steelers).

Conversely, if we start off bad, probably meaning we're not as good, then MOUNTAIN to climb, and I don't even know how we make it to 9-7. I guess sweeping the Jets and Bills would help.

I'm not even sure which of the two I'd choose, if I had to pick one or the other. With the fast start, at least you know you beat some really good teams. But a slump at the end probably spells either a fall-off on the development of Tannehill or catastrophic injury. While the reverse might signal more development from Tannehill, there would have to be the caveat that we couldn't beat good teams. Better just to go 13-3, I suppose, and end any doubt.

You know what, I should just stop dealing in hypotheticals.

 

Can we clarify what defines a blatant hole ? having a promising yet struggling young player you've invested in as a projected starter is certainly not categorized as a blatant hole.
Last year we had a blatant hole at Wr, no doubt, cb too if you want to ignore injuries. DE: possibly.

This year.... No blatant, gaping holes.... Just strengths and weaknesses. If Lance Louis never gets healthy, and Dallas Thomas isn't ready.. than maybe RG.

Spare me the left side only argument with Thomas, Incogs can schooch over.

 

Heavily targeted no doubt..... picked on? I hope not. Sure is nice to having a corner that Qbs prefer to avoid though. Also a play making safety for once.

Hmm...Just realized that Ireland has almost invested in corner as much as OL/DL.... WOW. One 1st, two 2nds, a 3rd, tons of free agents, waiver scavenging, etc.

 

let me ask this if we go 8-8 or 7-9 does Ross keep Ireland ? I know I would not but I am not a Ireland fan . I do Like Philbin and I have a good feeling about our defense .

I want Tannyhill to succeed but I just don't see him taking us to the playoffs .

I also don't believe our running backs are going to be elite nor the offensive line so unless these three areas improve we could be looking at a 6 win season and I don't think MR Ross is going to be happy especially if the attendance drops off .

I see a 8-8 season as no changes will be made .

a 10- 6 season as a successful season .

on the flip side a 6 win season and a bad qb performance and I see the gm and qb being replaced

a 6 win and a good qb performance but lousy running back performance and I see the gm being replace

anything less then 6 wins and then there damn well better be some changes.

 

QB - He isn't even the best QB on the team, but he's the supposed future. What if were 1-4 and Tannehill flops, can Philbin be allowed to start Matt Moore the rest of the way?

 

The average team, though, used 7.53 different starters on the offensive line last season. Coaches and general managers must figure out whether they have one or two solid backups. The numbers indicate the average team will have to go three-deep into backups to make it through a 16-game marathon. Can Miami go three deep on the O-Line? How does this affect a fragile developing 2nd year QB? An unproven running game?