1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Advanced Stats Poo-Pooing on Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by GARDENHEAD, Oct 27, 2015.

  1. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

    53,148
    31,935
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Katy, TX
    Yea, and the average pass jumps all the way up to 5.0 yards past the line of scrimmage and completions yards jump to 4.8 per if Parker's catch (35 yds) had not been nullified by penalty.
     
    Unlucky 13, ckparrothead and Brasfin like this.
  2. Ducken

    Ducken Luxury Box Luxury Box

    10,018
    5,152
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Lower Delaware
    I really think last week is setting us up to see a few nice chunk yardage plays to Stills and Parker this week. That toss and catch to Parker last week was a thing of beauty by both players. I don't think we have seen all that this offense is capable of yet.
     
    77FinFan and Brasfin like this.
  3. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    10,641
    2,121
    113
    Dec 8, 2007
    Hialeah, FL
    My guess is that these guys will never look at Bradys pass attempts then...
     
  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Did you read the thread title? Did you read the post I responded to?
     
  5. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

    2,553
    1,793
    113
    Mar 14, 2015
    How many Tom Brady's are there in the league?
     
  6. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    3,582
    2,579
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    I forgot it wasn't up to the QB to read the defense and put the ball where the receiver can make a play after a catch. :lol:

    Should he have chucked those passes up 50 yards instead just to make a point? Nope, he made smart decisions which is the best thing your QB can do.
     
  7. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    10,641
    2,121
    113
    Dec 8, 2007
    Hialeah, FL
    I cannot think of another one that thrives on short crossing routes...
     
  8. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    It's not a bad thing. But you look at it to analyze the QB and the WRs. Throw a 2 yard pass to a receiver who ran it 48 yards, vs a 50 yard bomb are two different evaluations.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  9. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    3,582
    2,579
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    Not to mention Atlanta has some good weapons, and while the Titans lost they held Atlanta very much in check.
     
  10. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    3,582
    2,579
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    True, but at the same time you take what you are given. I've never seen a QB downgraded for finding the best match-ups and his open receivers. If Tom Brady see's an uncovered receiver and throws a screen for 80 yards its WOW WHAT A VETERAN, WHAT KNOWLEDGE WHAT PREPARATION!
     
    Unlucky 13 likes this.
  11. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

    2,553
    1,793
    113
    Mar 14, 2015
    OK, so explain to me what happened after we put up 38 on Oakland up in England last year. Where exactly did that get us?

    Level of competition DOES matter schematically.
     
  12. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    3,582
    2,579
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    Also without Philbin btw :lol: I dont want to say it makes the point moot, but he did come back and muddy things back up after that.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  13. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009
    He's getting crapped on for being Tom Brady basically


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    resnor likes this.
  14. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

    2,553
    1,793
    113
    Mar 14, 2015
    If he was Tom Brady, we'd have a lot more AFC East Championships in the last 3-4 years.
     
  15. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009
    The queen of dink and dunk


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    resnor likes this.
  16. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    It's not necessarily a downgrade, but it's putting the stats in perspective. When you see this statline:

    You are thinking, holy chit Batman!

    But this isn't Aaron or Big Ben cutting up the field with throws all over the field. It was excellent short range throws (save for the Parker one) that produced excellent results due to the fantastic rac by the players. The long touchdowns were dump offs and the Texans missing the universe. Other than the parker throw, his longest completion was 14 yards from the LOS. That's important to know. When a good defense decides to sit on the short passes, and actually tackle well, is Tanny going to have success? Out of 19 completions, 10 were at the LOS or behind it. Only 5 traveled more than 10 yards.

    Recall Alex Smith in 2013 with Jamaal Charles scoring 5 TDs. 4 of those TDs were dumpoffs from Alex Smith (who threw 5 TDs). Alex Smith went 17 of 20, 287 yards, 14.4 ypa, 5 TDs, 158.3 rating. Look similar? Eerily close in numbers.

    So, the question is, is this performance sustainable?

    It was a fantastic gameplan and execution. Out of this world. Nobody disputes that. But when you try to isolate, is short pass long catch and run more due to the throw, or to the blocking downfield and ability of the catcher? Can you sustain this gameplan and have success moving forward. That is the question.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  17. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

    2,553
    1,793
    113
    Mar 14, 2015
    OK. The Cardinals lit up the first teams they played:

    31-19 vs. the Saints
    48-23 vs. the Bears
    47-7 vs. the 49'ers
    42-17 vs. the Lions

    Then they proceeded to play much closer games:

    22-24 loss to the Rams
    13-25 loss to the Steelers
    26-18 win by the skin of their teeth vs. the Ravens

    Again, it's all about how you match up with teams, especially when it comes to intra-division rivals and better competition. Texans and Titans are a combined 2-10 with a pts for of 273 vs. 338 pts against.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  18. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

    2,553
    1,793
    113
    Mar 14, 2015
    He can hit the intermediate routes just fine. You're speaking about someone who's relatively anomalous when it comes to "how" you can win in the NFL.
     
  19. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

    5,200
    2,975
    113
    Oct 23, 2011
    Sebring, FL
    Pathetic, man.
     
    resnor likes this.
  20. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Only the #1 passing defense in the NFL going into the game (Tennessee). That's not only practical, but true.
     
    Fin D, Aqua4Ever04 and resnor like this.
  21. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

    2,553
    1,793
    113
    Mar 14, 2015
    Ah Mr. Team Sport.

    Now we're just going to fixate on the passing defense? Must be a fluke both teams are a combined 2-10 on the year. They're definitely two very undervalued ball clubs.
     
  22. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I.E....bla bla bla....durrr durrr durrr...I got nothing.
     
    number21 and Fin D like this.
  23. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    3,893
    3,087
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    I know people are constantly looking to tear this guy down and he certainly needs to improve his game but come on man. Dude completed 25 passes in a row. I don't care how short they were, that's never happened.

    Furthermore, with the Texans pass rush that is a good game plan and we throttled them in the process. I'm one of those people who really could care less about stats except for winning football games and of course fantasy football.
     
    number21 and resnor like this.
  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Yeah, TEAM SPORT. It's why your defense can be number one, and you have a losing record. Because, team sport.
     
    Unlucky 13 and Fin D like this.
  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Yeah, but no one was being negative towards Tannehill.

    It was only a matter of time. I've said it numerous times, Tannehill is not Marino. He's his own QB. Why can't people just be happy when the team is successful?
     
    Unlucky 13 likes this.
  26. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    Wouldn't anyone agree a screen that goes for 40 yards is different than a 40 yard in the air pass? Alex Smith can throw screens all day. He can't do what Aaron Rodgers or Big Ben does.

    The results Sunday were excellent. Ecstatic. But these FO guys are isolating what Tannehill did and for that, you have to measure what he actually did. 10 of 19 completions were at or near the line of scrimmage. That metric can't be ignored. Ryan is the QB, he runs the offense, he made those throws so he gets credit for all of it. But the analysis doesn't stop there. I fully expect BB to attack our weakness so let's see how we respond.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  27. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

    2,553
    1,793
    113
    Mar 14, 2015
    Exactly what I was saying. They're going to be hard up on our running attack and cloud the short passing lanes. We've seen this before.

    The game will fall squarely on Tannehill's shoulders to hit them up for big plays ........... unless somehow the running game just bludgeons them.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  28. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

    2,553
    1,793
    113
    Mar 14, 2015
    You're right you don't. You're attempting to take up for a combined win record of 2-10 as if it's some benign event. They have two wins between them for a reason ...... and it ain't bad luck.

    We beat the hell out of bad teams. I'm happy about that, as that is what you want instead of playing down to them like the majority of the times we've seen. The real test comes Thursday vs. the best in the league.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  29. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

    5,200
    2,975
    113
    Oct 23, 2011
    Sebring, FL
    Already setting up the reason for the loss before it happens, eh?
     
    resnor likes this.
  30. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

    5,200
    2,975
    113
    Oct 23, 2011
    Sebring, FL
    Why does their 'record' matter but them being #1 pass defense going into that game doesn't? Record negates actual stats? Actually sounds pretty dumb. That's cherry picking for you.

    More than half of the NFL has a relatively bad record, including EXTREMELY good teams. Terrible year to act like a record means anything. Quite possibly the worst year in a long time.
     
    Fin D and resnor like this.
  31. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

    2,553
    1,793
    113
    Mar 14, 2015
    No. I'm telling you how they will be schemed, as if it weren't BLATANTLY obvious in the first place.

    Ahhhh, the spin cycle and dash of softener.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  32. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

    5,200
    2,975
    113
    Oct 23, 2011
    Sebring, FL
    Mhm. And if Tannehill happens to get murdered while "needing to be the sole reason we win" I'm sure I know who you will be blaming, even with the obvious in front of you.
     
  33. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

    2,553
    1,793
    113
    Mar 14, 2015
    You act like teams don't scheme to take out what you do well and make certain players beat them. Talk about naive.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  34. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

    5,200
    2,975
    113
    Oct 23, 2011
    Sebring, FL
    Gunna have to re-read where I mentioned anything about scheme, or was even talking about anything you've been saying in the first place. I was merely pointing things out (like your obv bias) in what you're saying.
     
    resnor likes this.
  35. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

    5,200
    2,975
    113
    Oct 23, 2011
    Sebring, FL
    Dontcha hate when you gotta edit stuff late?

    Spin cycle? Softener? Act like what I said isn't 10x more true than any garbage you say here. Look at NFL records and get back to me.
     
    resnor likes this.
  36. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Tannehill is 9th in the league in air yards per attempt and 14th in air yards as a percentage of total yards. The article notes that this week was an outlier and that he's basically average in all of these categories. Nothing much to infer from an outlier.

    Sent from my GT-I9500 using Tapatalk
     
    resnor likes this.
  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    The team had a gameplan, and they executed it, and it worked far better than they imagined, I bet. Why take risky shots downfield if you don't have to? Tannehill had a nice deep ball to Paler that was called back because of a penalty. Tannehill had shown consistent ability to hit the 15-20 yarder. Why the doom and gloom?

    Answer: people's narratives around Tannehill, that's why. People that always argue against Tannehill, argue against him no matter what type of game he has.

    I agree with Dcafiero. Pathetic.
     
    dWreck and PhinFan1968 like this.
  38. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

    5,200
    2,975
    113
    Oct 23, 2011
    Sebring, FL

    You are SEVERELY underestimating what people who hate Tannehill can infer from literally nothing.
     
    resnor likes this.
  39. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

    5,200
    2,975
    113
    Oct 23, 2011
    Sebring, FL
    cause he can't throw 50 air yards and hit in perfect stride. Duh.
     
  40. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

    2,553
    1,793
    113
    Mar 14, 2015
    The bad teams have bad records because - THEY'RE BAD. Go figure. But we should think more highly of them because there are so many this year. Makes complete sense.
     

Share This Page