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Advanced Stats Poo-Pooing on Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by GARDENHEAD, Oct 27, 2015.

  1. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Wait....are you serious?

    Now, record is a pass defense stat?????????????


    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    Tell us, how exactly is record a pass defense stat when its a QB stat......

    To paraphrase Douglas Adams, "...the derp hung in the air much the same way bricks don't"
     
  2. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    That's the offensive scheme that best suits this quarterback...
     
  3. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Ummm chief I never said record is a stat. I pointed out your fixation on a stat, purposely ignoring the overall results of these so-called amazing teams we just thrashed.
     
  4. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And that's the kinda funny part about this all. He hasn't NEEDED to. When he "kinda" needed to against Tennessee, he hit Stills on a nice deep pass on the sideline, from his own end-zone, when the other team was taking the momentum. And thanks to a BS call on Cameron toward the end of the 2nd half of the Houston game, his pass to Parker was negated. Good thing too, else they'd have marched down and scored 48 and broke the all-time record for halftime lead too, supplanting Marcia and the girls for the #1 spot (45)...you'd think these guys would be glad they didn't take that away from their team.
     
  5. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Tanny goes as the running game goes, not the other way around. If we stay balanced we have a shot.
     
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  6. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Please show one post where somebody said they were amazing...

    We'll wait...

    OF COURSE NOT....just more hyperbole BS from your frothing Cheatriots-slurping mug...fitting.
     
    resnor likes this.
  7. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Yawn. Clearly you missed most of the conversation that was taking place and jumping in to start a spat as usual.
     
  8. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    :pity:
     
  9. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    :confused2:
     
  10. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    No doubt you're confused...no doubt whatsoever.
     
  11. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Your post and Con's win this thread. Do not proceed...nothing to really see here :)
     
  12. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Ohhhhh big bad Navy guy. LOL
     
  13. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Don't bumble**** you're way out this.

    You've repeatedly and with gusto, argued that record is about the QB, yet you're gonna sit here and say the team's pass defense means nothing because the their record is bad.

    Its a shining example of the stellar analysis and logic and you've been bringing here since March.
     
    resnor likes this.
  14. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Even more pathetic...reaching new heights! Keep 'em comin'.
     
  15. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    You're late. I knew once 1968 posted, you would be contacted immediately. You two need to work on your improving communication time.
     
  16. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Stat monkeys gonna monkey.
     
  17. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Ya it's not so tight that we're on each others' sack like you and Finster...we'll get right on it.
     
  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Stop crying because more than one person sees through this crap, and deal with what is being said....

    How can a QB stat (W/L) record reflect poorly on that same team's pass defense?
     
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  19. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    What the hell are you talking about? Where are you even getting that from?
     
  20. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Not totally against Stat Monkeys, what I would like to see is a more textured approach to statistical analysis.

    For example, a weighted performance based on the unit being faced.

    Shred a bad Texans D should not count as heavily in analysis as shredding, or being shut down, by a really good Jest D.
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    WTF? How about here....

    He said their pass defense was good and you acted like that can't be possible because their record is bad.

    Logic...its what for dinner.....except apparently at your house.
     
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  22. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    No. I said besides their pass defense ranking "as a team" they are bad. Hence their record.

    Simple math, that's what's for dinner. Then I was told many teams in the NFL have poor records this year, so somehow that means anything as if to excuse "overall" poor play from them.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  23. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Check it....this is a thread about Tannehill. Sooooo, pop quiz, what part of the other team does Tannehill play against....don't worry its multiple choice...

    A. The pass defense
    B. Special Teams
    C. the water boy

    You can guess until you get it right.....nope its not B.....try again...nope not C.....sigh...no, you already guessed B and its still wrong....A, the answer is A.

    So, if the argument was that Tannehill thrashed the team's #1 pass defense, then the team record doesn't really matter...unless you just hate Tannehill because you're a tiny man with big anger.
     
    resnor likes this.
  24. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    I said "The Dolphins" thrashed those teams, not just Tannehill. As we've seen now, when we commit to the run and they're gashing people suddenly Tannehill's play is much better. Go figure.

    Regardless, it changes nothing about that fact that the overall level of competition we faced. They were bad "teams".
     
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  25. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    lol.

    According to you, the running game, oline, defense, etc. don't matter, because W/L record is a QB stat. Based on that, its not possible for the running game to affect Tannehill positively or negatively.
     
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  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    And, that's exactly the argument that's been made before on here: the QB makes the run game and pass protection better, not vice versa.

    Oh, and it's not simply "running the ball more" that's changed m. It's the oline and Sims being back. The players is huge in blocking schemes.

    Funny, we are seeing so many acrobatics right now.
     
    Fin D likes this.
  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    ELO rankings naturally do that if you operate on the win/loss record for an entire team.

    To apply ELO more generally for individual units that face each other (e.g. offense vs. defense using say Y/A as a measure), you just need to know the probability of getting a specific offensive Y/A given defensive Y/A. You can get that estimate by finding the correlation between offensive and defensive Y/A over time (for units facing each other) as well as the average variance at each location (the variance allows you to compute the aforementioned probability).

    It's not difficult to do.. someone just has to do it. ELO for teams based on W/L however already is done for the NFL.
     
  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Wish some would just keep backflipping back to FH.
     
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  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Or Phinfever. Whichever sewer they want to crawl back into is fine by me.
     
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  30. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    The play doesn't show up on the stat sheets because it was called back due to a penalty, but Tanne threw an absolute sweet and accurate deep ball to Parker.
     
  31. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    I never said none of those matter. I said the QB position naturally carries more responsibility and impact, particularly for upper-echelon teams.

    We don't have an upper-echelon team and certainly not an upper-echelon QB. He's extremely dependent on the rest of the offense. Hence the revival of the passing game once we focused more on the run.

    Congrats to Campbell though, at least he gets it. Philbonehead certainly didn't.
     
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  32. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Personal pot shots are not allowed. Neither is baiting someone with strawman arguments...basically cut the crap. Obviously you two have something personal going on...either solve it via pm or put each other on block. Those are the only two options.
     
  33. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    I don't have anything going on with him. Supposedly I'm "blocked" (which he always comes on here to post about) but anytime I come around with a contrarian opinion, there he is again taking personal shots and mincing my words.
     
  34. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm not here to referee it...pm each other and work it out, block him, I don't care which you choose but choose one.

    And to be clear if I have to keep coming back to this during a world series game (Let's Go Mets!), you'll both be taking a few days off....
     
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  35. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well away from here
    Sure, but does it really matter? The end result is the same. It's like going around a circle in opposite directions to get to the same point. It's not like there is a difference between a fifty yard gain; it is still a fifty yard gain. Also it's not as if Ryan threw every ball barely past the line of scrimmage, he'll he it Landry twelve yards down the field, which is a first down.
     
  36. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    No need. I'm watching my Mets too.
     
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  37. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    This is for the fans, not the league.

    Thus pure W/L would not be very probitive, as fans we would like to know where our guys stack up against the rest of the league in an objective manner.
     
    Finrunner likes this.
  38. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Stats wise, it does not matter, no sure it that a 4 yd pass went 50 yds for a Td, both players are equally responsible for the outcome of the play, if a 4 yd pass gains 4 yds, the concept would be the same.

    Now, to look at a fans pov, how well is Tannehill throwing the ball, in the air, 40 yds down the field it would matter from a player development pov. The subtext to " a 4yd pass went 50 yds" is "not a very good play by the Qb" which is simple nonsense.

    Here is a scenario where that COULD reflect negatively on the offense as a whole, same play, goes 50 yds, Turner gives up instant pressure and THill is out 4 games with a concusion. The play is a "win" as a whole, the offense failed as a unit.
     
  39. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    its good to see ryan play within himself and efficient when his variables have improved.

    were a team now, a team that was under real bad guidance, were seeing before our eyes how bad the discrepency was.
     
  40. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Also remember the PFF rating and FO's dyar rating are both measures of production, not efficiency. So comparing theose stats to QBR is a bit like comparing a RB's total yards and average per rush.

    YAC is also a problem for the advanced stats guys. For example both of Landry's TDs were because Landry bounced through and around tacklers, and for most WRs that would be 2 catches for 20 yards and 0 TDs. However the Mathews and Miller TDs were mainly because Tannehill hit them in stride. So on 2 of the TDs the throw is almost irrelevant as long as it was in Landry's catch radius, yet in the other 2 throws precise placement caused the YAC to happen.

    Which is why stats are meant to complement your visual assessment, not replace it. Although I thought it amusing that both sites went to long efforts to justify their stats as being correct, when they could have just shrugged and said it was an unusual game that their systems dont't catch becaause RT's performance was atypical.
     
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