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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    You've got a lot to learn. Which is OK as long as you're willing to learn it.

    "Clutch" is also widely used in the media. It's fake and doesn't exist. Points matter. Yards matter, but they matter little compared to points.
     
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I have to disagree with that. Patrick Mahomes just the other day quarterbacked his team from a 95% probability of losing to a 100% probability of winning with only 7 minutes and 26 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. That extreme change in win probability associated with his performance is what I'd call "clutch."

    He could've had the exact same performance up by 40 points or down by 40 points and it wouldn't have been clutch at all, because it would've been virtually meaningless in terms of changing win probability.
     
  3. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    You see, it's comments like that that really make my blood boil. You make a statement that appears to be fact when in fact it's not as cut and dry as you make it.

    You guys are basically saying Brady's stats are because he had good field position and more possessions, but Manning's stats are all because of him? Lmao.

    Fact of the matter is Manning isnt better than Brady, and anyone outside of Dolphin fans would agree.
     
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  4. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    It's hilarious how you say Moss elevated Brady, which he probably did, but refuse to acknowledge that Brady has won more with less than Manning his whole career. Again, who were David Patten, David Givens, Wes Welker, Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell without Brady? Did those WRs elevate Brady too? Manning has never had to play with average WRs in his entire career. Again, the day Manning makes it to the AFC Championship with Caldwell as his WR1 is the day you can convince me Brady doesn't elevate the players around him.
     
  5. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Yes, but other factors like poor field position can also play a factor in points allowed.

    All that aside, I think it's ridiculous to discredit Brady for his first 3 Super Bowls because he had good defenses. The defense and special teams carried him his first year when they beat the Rams, but come on. Bad QBs don't win 3 Super Bowls in 4 years, including back to back. Is that really what you're trying to argue? It's frustrating that people credit Brady's defense for his first 3 titles and the coaching decision to not run Lynch for Brady's 4th. You really believe Brady is a product of having good defenses and...luck? He he he.
     
  6. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Brady has played 92% of his games outdoors (185 of 202)

    Manning has played 49% of his games outdoors (122 of 248)



    Brady in a dome: 67.4%, 8.64 YPA, 6.9% TD, 2.62% INT, 106.42 rating

    Manning in a dome: 66.16%, 7.8 YPA, 6.1% TD, 2.4% INT, 99.72 rating

    Brady outdoors: 63.15%, 7.35 YPA, 5.39% TD, 1.93% INT, 95.28 rating

    Manning outdoors: 64.97%, 7.62 YPA, 5.66% TD, 2.63% INT, 95.83 rating



    Also, people fail to mention Peyton had Tony Dungy and IND had one of the best defenses in the league for a few years in the mid 2000s.
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No. My statement has nothing to do with Brady. Points allowed are these only defensive stat that matters.
     
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  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Wait...so you're argument for Brady being better than Manning is that Manning beat Brady in unregulated outdoors environments, but Brady needed the perfect indoor environment to beat Peyton?

    Weird.
     
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  9. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You misunderstand. I don't give Brady personal credit for a team achievement. You do. As do many others. It's a common mistake.

    But a mistake nonetheless.
     
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  10. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Peyton can have the regular season GOAT crown until Mahomes inevitably takes it from him. Playoffs not so much. His 2 superbowl playoff run stats: 5 TDs, 8 Ints, and 1600 yards. Sounds very game manager-esque to me. Can't even blame it on 2015 because in 06 (when he was still in his prime), he threw 3 TDs and 7 ints.
     
  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, you're cherry picking what to look at. You're disregarding data that disagrees with your narrative, and presenting only data that paints the picture you want to see. That's incredibly dishonest.
     
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah there just isn't any good statistical argument for saying Brady > Peyton when one looks at ALL their postseason games. Maybe a graph of their postseason ratings adjusted to a common year (2019) will help:

    [​IMG]

    Both have similar means. If you weight by passing attempts as you would to create a single postseason rating, the averages are 96.3 for Brady and 95.4 for Peyton so virtually identical. If however you don't care about a career rating and want the expected postseason rating for any single game, then it's the unweighted average and you get 96.1 for Brady and 93 for Peyton.

    Either way, hardly any difference.

    However, there is a difference between the two when it comes to consistency: Brady is much more consistent than Peyton in the postseason. That's captured by the standard deviations, which are 29.5 for Peyton and 21.4 for Brady. In other words, you're much more likely to get a really bad performance or a really great performance in the postseason by Peyton, as you can see in that graph.

    Why does that matter? It matters because the more variable the QB performance is the easier it is to cherry pick a game to make a point. In any case, when you look at ALL games there's no good argument using passer rating to say Brady > Peyton in the postseason.
     
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  13. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    5 Games
    115 completions
    184 attempts
    62% Completion percentage
    1474 yards
    8.0 Average
    294.8 Yard per Game
    13 Touchdowns
    2 Interceptions

    4 wins
    1 loss
    1 Superbowl win
    1 Superbowl MVP
    1 offsides penalty away from going to two Superbowls.

    Seems to be doing pretty good in the playoffs so far.
     
  14. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    I know sample size might be a foreign concept to you, but Brady has played significantly more games outdoors than Manning and has essentially the same passer rating. Manning was also probably way behind before his 2013 season when he set the TD record while playing outdoors in Denver for a bunch of games. This just illustrates how big of a difference playing in a dome consistently can make in passer rating. Wonder who played in a dome more
     
  15. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    If championships and playoff success don't matter when comparing QBs of similar statistical success, then you could easily argue that Drew Brees is better than Tom Brady.
     
  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    QB's don't play defense. Consider the following statistics:

    Correlation between adjusted playoff passer rating and win% in playoffs:
    Manning: 0.32
    Brady: 0.34

    Correlation between points allowed by defense and win% in playoffs:
    Manning's defense: -0.54
    Brady's defense: -0.45

    In other words, on offense Manning and Brady have similar influences on win% while Manning's defense had a much bigger influence on win% (they played poorly at the wrong time more often). You can't just ignore defensive performance when looking at win%.

    Oh, and the correlation between playoff passer rating and defense for both QB's is essentially zero, meaning that they don't affect defensive performance in any important way (-0.06 for Manning and -0.05 for Brady). So don't just look at win% or number of SB's and attribute that all to the QB. The correlations on offense show the QB's influence on win% was similar.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Once again, passer rating differential.

    Take a look at these three of Drew Brees's seasons, paying special attention to the passer rating and the won-loss record involved:

    https://www.pro-football-reference....lt&team_id=nor&c5val=1.0&order_by=pass_rating

    Now, what do you think the nature of those teams' passer ratings surrendered defensively was?
     
  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    In this context, you don't want to look at passer rating differential. Differential doesn't tell you whether it was offensive passer rating or defensive passer rating allowed that was more important. You want to look at offense vs. defense separately.

    And you want points allowed, not passer rating allowed, because it's the effect of the entire defense that matters.

    Finally, in the current debate it's just about the playoffs so not the regular season.
     
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  19. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Clutch is a myth. Average players typically play average across the board. Good players typically play good across the board. Great players typically play great across the board. People don't make it to the NFL without being able to overcome nerves.
     
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  20. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    He is...
     
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  21. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I think you're lost...big time.
     
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  22. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Also, 14 out of the 20 living HoF QB's picked Manning over Brady. 3 refused to pick. 2 chose Brady. 1 (Montana) Said that he'd take Brady first half and Manning 2nd half.

    try again...or actually..stop trying.
     
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  23. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    In what world is a 185 NFL game sample size of stats cherry picking? I'm not throwing out some obscure adjusted PFF stat here lol. Brady has played 63 more games outdoors, consistently with less supporting talent than Manning, and has a basically identical passer rating. Then when he plays in a dome (a noted advantage for passing), his passer rating shoots up dramatically.


    And this isn't even a narrative worth arguing. Mannings hopes of being considered better than Brady by reasonable, unbiased media members/fans died after Brady won his 4th, was buried in 2016, and then more dirt was thrown on top of it in 2017 and 2018. His claim to fame is being a regular season monster when surrounded by elite pass catching talent (every game of his career basically), and game-managing his way to 2 superbowls to the extent that people imagine 01-04 Brady game-managed. We get it people think he's more likeable because he makes commercials and doesn't regularly steamroll everyones favorite teams in the playoffs.
     
  24. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    I think this thread needs a change of direction to make it more Dolphin related.

    Poll - Pick one and give a detailed analysis of who you would take:

    1) John Beck
    2) Jay Feeley
    3) Ray Lucas
    4) Joey Harrington
    5) Cleo Lemon

    Pick one to build your franchise around.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2020
  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You don't understand cherry picking.
     
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  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Statistically it is true that Brees > Brady, though both are great. Career z-score is 1.1564 for Brees and 1.0754 for Brady, even in playoffs Brees beats Brady in terms of rating: 105.5 for Brees (adjusted to 2019) and 96.3 for Brady.

    And in terms of wins added above average level QB Brees is #1 in history, followed by Peyton Manning. Brady is #3. So whether by passing efficiency or wins added you get Brees, though again.. both are great QB's.
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It is worth arguing. Look at the wealth of statistical evidence that shows there's meat to the argument.

    Also, as more discerning statistics become accepted by the media and fans you see a change in perception. Baseball has already seen this happen to a tremendous degree with people quoting WAR (wins above replacement) as a good measure of how good players are, even comparing across different positions. That's changed how both fans and media view who is great.

    I've said this before, but no way before WAR was developed would you have seen Mike Trout win the MVP 3 times while being on losing teams in 2 of those years! NO WAY that happens without more advanced stats. That day will come too in football, and when that happens Brady will be top 10 but he's not going to be top 3. Manning might make it to top 3, depends. Either way he's slightly above Brady.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2020
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  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But then implicit in your statement is that a player isn't great if he plays well only at times other than in the clutch. That means clutch play is important because it's one thing that distinguishes great players from other players.
     
  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I don't have the microscope on this conversation that I typically do.
     
  30. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I wish I could like this post 1000x.
     
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  31. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    No. Read my post again. An average player will play average across the board.

    Example: Do you know Reggie Jacksons' nickname? Mr. October. Why is that his nickname? Well, he was perceived to somehow play better in the postseason than in regular season. He was "clutch". In reality, and like nearly every single other "clutch" player, his postseason play mirrors his regular season play, albeit slightly worse. Most likely due to the strength of the teams played in the postseason. Just like Brady.

    Clutch is a myth
     
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  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Can also look at Robert Horry in basketball. "Big Shot Bob" he was called because of his supposed clutchness. But he didn't play better in key moments or in the post season than he did in the regular season.
     
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  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What you implied in your previous post about this is that the correlation between the overall quality of play and the quality of play in the clutch is virtually 1.0 if not 1.0.

    However the highlighted portion above leaves some room for an interaction between the two variables, in that it's possible there are players who play well (compared to other players) in non-clutch situations but play poorly (compared to other players) in clutch situations. In other words, there are players for whom the quality of play doesn't vary as a function of clutch situations (e.g., Tom Brady), but there are also players for whom it does. That was the knock on Tannehill by some for several years, BTW.

    At any rate, if that's true, then players' performances in clutch situations are certainly worth measuring, because we would need to know whether players fit into "category one" or "category two" in that regard.
     
  34. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Nah, I think it was more than a fair argument back in 2009 as to who one would prefer between Brady and Manning. I'm not surprised that those were the results then. But last I checked, a lot has happened in the 10+ YEARS since that "vote" happened.
     
  35. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Kind of like "statistical evidence" from 2009?
     
  36. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Expressing an opinion can be done in a positive way. Doing so while using incorrect and outdated data while telling someone else to "try again or stop trying" isn't one of those ways and shouldn't be permitted or backed up.
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No.. looking at one year, a subset of years or just a select subset of games can be misleading. The stats I posted (if you noticed) take into account ALL postseason games or ALL regular season games, and ALL were adjusted for era.
     
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  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Tannehill is the greatest QB of all time. Look at the 2019 season he had.
     
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  39. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    You used "evidence" from hall of famers taking a survey saying they prefer Peyton Manning over Tom Brady. You provided that as if it has anything to do with the present and failed to mention that it was from over 10 years ago.



    Should we also use their draft grades as evidence too?
     
  40. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    QB is the single most important and impactful position on a football team. The goal of the game is to score more points than the other team and ultimately win a SB. QB's usually play the biggest role in helping achieve that (and sometimes all-time great defenses). It's not as hard to understand as you're making it out to be.

    It's the most important game of the season the SB. What good are those 16 prior games if you consistently fail in the playoffs when it actually matters? Winning one SB may not be a metric of a great QB since anyone can get hot and go on a run in the playoffs, but winning multiple definitely is. I didn't miss any point, you're just trying to exclude SB wins from an argument about QBs worth for whatever reason. It's literally the end-goal of every season. Do you think Manning and Brady would rather have extra Superbowls or their MVP awards for regular season stat padding?


    Eli Manning is a great playoff QB and is more likely than not going into the HoF because of his performances. Anyone can do it once but he did it twice against the greatest dynasty in NFL history. Some insane people would probably say he shouldn't be a HoF because he wasn't that great in the regular season but who cares? Imagine watching your team and QB play just to enjoy the regular season and not expecting any continued success in the postseason. Or imagine thinking you should win your fantasy league because you scored the most points in the regular season.


    So yeah Superbowls will (rightfully) continue to be taken into account when assessing the great QBs. Sorry winning in a team sport is actually important and reflective of the most important position on that team. Meanwhile the extra irrational folks will continue to argue Aaron Rodgers is the greatest ever because he "is the best darn thrower of the football I've ever seen." Or the extra irrational old folks will still cling to Dan Marino or something.
     

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