Found a pretty cool draft simulator online at thedraftnetwork.com/mock-draft-machine Here was mine: 5. Isaiah Simmons LB/S 18. K’Lavon Chaisson Edge 26. Andrew Thomas OT 39. Jonathan Taylor RB 56. Jake Fromm QB 70. Robert Hunt OG Passed on Tua for reasons not worth debating again to focus on defense, OL and a developmental QB in the 2nd Round.
5. Tua QB 18. Mekhi Becton OT 26. Andrew Thomas OT 39. Grant Delpit S 56. D'Andre Swift RB 70. Cole Kmet TE
Do you think Swift will still be around at that point? A lot of mocks I've seen have him going in the first round.
5 Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama 18 Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia 26 Xavier McKinney, S Alabama 39 Zack Baun, EDGE Wisconsin 56 Kyle Dugger, S Lenoir-Rhyne 70 Zack Moss, RB Utah Tua for obvious reasons.
5 Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama 18 C.J. Henderson, CB Florida 26 D'Andre Swift, RB Georgia 39 Zack Baun, EDGE Wisconsin 56 Trevon Diggs, CB Alabama 70 Tyler Biadasz, IOL Wisconsin Sims are endlessly fun. Need to do a few to root out particular bias in the ranks - the Andrew Thomas one seems iffy based on other comments, for example. Surprised to see Diggs that far back as well. At least in this draft, the OTs seemed ranked quite low comparatively, but were drafted quickly. Wasn't a huge fan of Henderson (or Fulton, ranked similarly) but I didn't explore down board too heavily and just rolled with it. The biggest "regret" was Swift at that spot, but only because JK Dobbins lasted until 56 in my sim and would totally take him at that slot over Swift at 26, even if I feel Swift would be worth it.
The value at OL wasn't there for me, with players flying off the board. IRL, I desperately want to fix that problem. However, I would also be thrilled with the overall value that we would get from this lineup. 5. Isiah Simmons, LB Clemson 18. AJ Epenesa, DL Iowa 26. Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge Penn St 39. Grant Delpit, S LSU 56. JK Dobbins, RB Ohio St 70. Jake Fromm, QB Georgia
This draft would transform our defense, but I would rather draft a long snapper than Fromm. He is the last qb in this draft I would take.
Out of curiosity, did you skip both Tua and Herbert at 5? Or did your sim have one/both going before then? Other than that and selecting Fromm, that would be pretty killer. Delpit and Dobbins at those spots would be crazy good value.
Absolutely not. It would be a more stunning free-fall than Tunsil's. But this is the norm with most fan mocks; it's fun to pretend that 31 hungry NFL teams will pass on blue-chip talent so your team can scoop them up at a place they have no business being drafted. A more realistic take looks something like this: 1A: Tua Tagovailoa, given the mutual interest and lengthy ties to each other, top-15 player 1B: K'Lavon Chaisson, given the scheme fit as a do-it-all linebacker/EDGE defender, 1st-2nd round player 1C: Lloyd Cushenberry, given the desired size & wingspan of Flores' linemen and glaring need at center, 1st-2nd round player 2A: Prince Tega Wanogho, given the desired size & wingspan of Flores' linemen and glaring need at tackle, 1st-2nd round player 2B: Ashtyn Davis, given the coaching ties and Flores' desire for a multitude of DB's, 2nd round player 3A: Thaddeus Moss, given his ability as and our need for an in-line blocking TE with versatility, 3rd round player
Gotta say I'm skeptical since this was my 1st mock run-thru; rooting for this one to happen- 5 Joe Burrow, QB LSU 18 Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia 26 D'Andre Swift, RB Georgia 39 Lloyd Cushenberry III, IOL LSU 56 Trevon Diggs, CB Alabama 2nd pass I had almost the same draft with Tua at #5.
I haven't done much research, but so far I support those mocks who have Tua and Cushenberry (C). Obviously, we are going to take an OT also, so coming away with a QB, OT, and a C will help us a lot, IMO. My draft philosophy for this year is for us to have a targeted draft. By that, I mean for Grier to evaluate and rank the prospects as BPA according to our system fit, our prototype, etc.. and then go after them. Instead of letting the draft come to him, I want him to be aggressive and get guys who fit our system. IMO, we miss on guys because we settle.
Seems more worst case to me. Trade down, sure. Trade for a lower round? No. No need. We could trade 5 for another pick in the first and a couple of seconds and thirds.
Traded our 5th overall for bucks 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Then traded down again with the cowboys for their 17th overall plus a 3rd, 4th and 5th rounder. Selected Jones at 17, C.J. at 18 then traded our 26th overall with the colts in exchange for their 2nd, another 3rd, 4th and 5th rounder. This is all about increasing value picks and filling more holes. With this kind of draft we could actually be competitive next year and contend for the SB in year 3 or 4.
Just too much trading and too many picks. You're gonna have a helluva cap issue in four years with that many picks in rounds 1-3 in a single year. More likely that some of those picks would be for 2021 (which also likely means they end up higher). Giving up the fifth and a premium player for a bunch of 2nd/3rd rounders just doesn't seem prudent. Who's our QB going to be? Will we have a better shot at a high-end prospect next year? I wouldn't think so personally, it's a big risk to pass.
You likely wouldn't, but then it's a big talent drain at a single time. Historically, a draft with that many picks and trades just doesn't seem to happen.
Then you have to continue to make good draft picks be prepared. Then you would get compensatory picks
I'm just sticking with reality - teams don't draft 30 players in a draft or a dozen in the first three rounds. You do your contrarian arguing for the sake of it thing.
I am sticking to reality. one reason I would never write something so fake as "30 players in a draft with a dozen or so in the first three rounds." Literally no one, in reality, is saying that. There is no downside to too much young talent. There is no contrarian arguing here. You are just being lazy to even make such an accusation.
Not sure, but I think the going rate for a pick traded this year is a pick one round higher next year. If that is true, depending on the situation, I wouldn't mind if we traded one of our picks in the 2nd or 3rd this year so we can add a higher pick next year. No team hits on all their picks, so the more picks we can get each year the better, IMO.
I took a second stab at it, and this time Simmons was taken third overall, so he wasn't there. I decided to go OL, which also seems to have changed the board below me, leading to different options throughout. 5. Tristan Wirfs, OT Iowa 18. AJ Epenesa, DL Iowa 26. Josh Jones, OT Houston 39. Cesar Ruiz, IOL Michigan 56. JK Dobbins, RB Ohio St 70. Bryce Hall, CB Virginia
I also did this one at Fanspeak/Ontheclock, using the CBS Sportsline database, which was just updated this morning. 5. Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia 18. Jeff Okudah, CB Ohio St 26. Jedrick Wills, OT Alabama 39. D'Andre Swift, RB Georgia 56. Bryce Hopkins, TE Purdue 70. Cesar Ruiz, IOL Michigan
Obviously, the free agency period will have a huge impact on our draft. So here is my prediction. FREE AGENTS Chris Jones/Arik Armstead - DL Joe Thuney/ Brandon Scherff - G Matthew Judon/ Bud Dupree - OLB ( PASS RUSHER) DRAFT ( I did one without trading and one with) (5) Tua Tagovailoa - QB (18) Jedrick Wills Jr. - OT (26) Xavier McKinney - S (39) Dandre Swift - RB (56) Cesar Ruiz - C (70) Jaylon Johnson - CB With trade RD 1 (5) FOR TAMPA RDS 1, 2 & 3 Jeff Okudah- CB Mekhi Becton - OT Jordan Love - QB Dandre Swift - RB Antoine Winfield - S ( Debated 2nd RB) Trey Adams - OT/G Cesar Ruiz - C Lynn Bowden - WR (GO CATS) I think either one of these drafts would be a win. Also, only way WR is an option IMO is if we lose Albert Wilson. Lastly, as a UK fan would also love to see us draft Logan Sternberg. Has that nastiness as a G we've been missing.
5. Simmons LB 18. Benton OT 26. Jordan Love (dont think he falls this far, but a guy can hope) 39. Austin Jackson OT (willing to take RB here and someone else at 56 depending on how the draft falls) 56. JK Dobbins RB 70. Jaylon Johnson CB. Sign DE, OLB, OT, S, Depth G and C. I would sign in FA a DE that can play in a 3-4 or as a DE in a 4-3 (DL of Wilkins, Godchaux, and FA). Sign a rush OLB to pair with Baker on the outside and play mcmillian and simmons inside. add Johnson the the secondary room. For OL i signed a OT, draft 2 (need 3 OT with injuries). Move Davis back inside to RG and sign a depth OG to compete with Dieter. Kilgore at C and sign a depth C or use a 4th or 5th round pick on one. TE and WR are pretty much set but i like Van Jefferson or Cleveland late. at RB you add Dobbins to current room and maybe try to get Perine in the draft in the 4th or 5th. QB you roll with fitz, love, and rosen.
While not consulting any value charts, I feel that would be a good place to add picks from next year. Grier and Flores can afford longer-term thinking, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see us go for more ammo in the next draft. Take Tampa's picks this year like Joe has and throw in a 1 or 2 next year and that makes some sense. Regardless, trading DOWN from the 5th is hard to see unless we just flat out don't like any QBs (if they love Love we likely take him at 5), or only like Burrow and Tua but don't move up to get either. Even then, is it worth passing on a Brown/Simmons/Okudah?
I think if Tua is there at 5 you take him, and I don't particularly like Tua as a prospect. I definitely don't like moving up to get him personally. I took the trade with the mindset Tua was already gone. Honestly, I'm more interested to see what happens during free agency period because Tua to the Fins seems like a certainty at this point.
I think we are vastly underestimating how good of a prospect Tua is and the interest that other teams will have. It's vogue to think we will land him at 5, but I think the reality is going to play out differently. IMO if it seems we are going to sit back, SOMEONE will decide to make a move and strike. The one caveat is that there is definitely an interesting pool of FA quarterbacks and possible trade options for teams that are interested.
It's possible. If someone trades up to take him at 2-4, then they do and we'll have to do something else at QB. I don't think it would be a disaster for us, though. I just don't think he's going to be that much better to make it worth trading up for him when we need so much more.
Than other QBs we could get in the draft or free agency. Not Rosen, probably. Herbert? Don't know about him. I like his physical tools, but I don't think he's the QB we want from the neck up. If we don't get Tua at 5, I would be willing to try Jordan Love with a lower pick in the first, or maybe Jacon Eason in the second round.
Love is interesting, Eason has tools but lacks processing power, hard pass. I think you are in the hard minority on Tua, especially when it comes to "professional" evaluators (scouts, GMs, media who actually know their ****). Tua is the classic case of a guy being so good and so hyped for so long that people essentially turn on him or try to mix him back into the pack. Dude's one of the most legit prospects to come out in awhile.