Assuming we keep #6 where it is and grab either Pitts or a WR1, what's your preference for our pick at #18? Trade up, stay pat, trade back? And under what conditions or for what purpose? Mock draft images welcome.
A few scenarios playing around with a trade back at 18, and where possible, trading back to gain mid round picks by dropping spots: I will say that most mock draft simulators have Najee available much later on than I think is realistic.
My first preference would be to take Pitts at #6, and then if Chase or Waddle fell to about #10, try to package #18 with something else and move up to snag them. It so happens that per the chart, #18+#50=#10 exactly. If we aren't able to do that, and none of Chase, Waddle or Sewell happen to fall all the way to #18, then I would be interested in taking WR Bateman, who's often mocked around that spot. He's my third favorite WR in this draft. However, if we were to be given an awesome trade offer to move down, I'd be very willing to consider that too.
If Pitts is there at 6, draft him otherwise trade back because there will be 4-5 guys who are equally good you can pickup a little later. Plus I like the WRs and OTs available in that 18-36 range.
If we can’t trade back, I’d like to target best available pass rusher. Outside of another playmaker, I think pass rusher is one of our top needs. I like Collins or Phillips there. I don’t think Paye will fall that far but he’d be another one.
Just trying to understand... if Pitts wasn't there at 6 you'd trade back from 18 or 6? Is Slater the guy want at 18, rather than trade up or back?
At 18, I don't have any expectations. My preference would be to grab Najee Harris there but I think the Fins take BPA, trade back or even trade up for a falling Waddle/Smith. Sewell could potentially drop as well if there's an early run on QB's as expected.
. Pitts at six! Almost rhymes. I choose Pitts because of the WRs available later. I chose Slater because he was there and we still need OL help. BPA approach on that mock.
So many variables. It’s almost impossible to say without knowing what happens at 6. If we stand pat at 18; Paye, Slater or a (potentially) falling Parsons would be huge gets there. If they think Najee is going to absolutely transform our running game. Even though the value doesn’t seem great, I wouldn’t be too upset. If we get Sewell at 6. Anything could happen and I wouldn’t rule out trading up from 18.
Assuming we take either Pitts or a WR at 6 .... Give me Najee all day. If he's gone, I would think long and hard about Etienne and maybe even Williams, though I'd try and trade back from 18 into the 20s for them. I'd be OK with Kwitty Paye or Jason Oweh or the Georgia kid, as well as Zaven Collins or Jaycee Horn. Dark horse candidate is Creed Humphrey.
I badly want Javonte Williams. He's far and away my favorite RB in this draft, and the kind I want to build around. But I'd be happy with Etienne too. He's extremely gifted, and reminds me of Lamar Miller, with the possible ceiling of Clinton Portis. When I watch Harris, I just don't see what others do, I guess. He doesn't look special at anything, and I can't envision him as a dominant runner in the NFL.
He's kind of the Devonte Smith of running backs. He's not the sheer wrecking ball of Williams or the smooth pass catcher of Etienne, but he's very good at everything and just has a vibe, like he can change his game up to beat you in a variety of ways, not just from game to game, but play to play.
I see as the type you use a 3rd or 4th round pick on to be a contributor. If I'm taking a RB in the first round, he needs to have the potential to be a lot more than that.
What productive NFL RB would you guys compare Harris to? Current or past. I see various people say Derrek Henry, but I really, really don't see that. The two don't move or play in the same way at all. Henry has a ton of power, and did in college too. That's not who Harris is. I've seen others say Matt Forte, and that I buy more so. I could see that as his ceiling. But Forte isn't a guy I'm using the 18th pick on, and that's not who or what I personally want as our RB of the future.
NFL comparison When you see Harris drag defenders while in an Alabama uniform, you think about Derrick Henry or maybe Eddie Lacy, but he's not as massive as those guys. When you see Harris with good moves in the passing game, you think back to David Montgomery or Kareem Hunt, but Harris profiles as a little more athletic with a little more size. Think about Todd Gurley's collegiate game -- he was strong, tough, physical and versatile. Harris might not be exactly as fast as Gurley, but otherwise, there are some legitimate similarities. Advanced stats to know 962 yards after contact, third-most in college football (PFF) 69 missed tackles forced, second-most in college football (PFF) 3.26 yards after contact per attempt, a surprisingly low 89th in college football (PFF) Only 25 career carries of 20-plus yards 22 broken tackles on 43 catches this year Just one drop in 2020, just one fumble lost in his entire college career I think Harris at #18 will be a steal and we certainly would HATE to see him in Buffalo or with the Jets
I think we can wait until the 2nd round to pick up our RB1 but I have a feeling that there's going to be a run on them shortly before we select.
I compare Harris to Le’Veon Bell. Big guy who is really shifty and agile and prefers to dance around contact then run through guys. Also a great pass catcher and route runner. They both lack breakaway/home run speed. Javonte Williams prefers violence on every carry. Very different runners. Thankfully Williams is only a junior and basically split carries with Carter last year. So he isn’t really beaten up despite his style.
The focus should be on adding another play-maker on offense for Tua. So, Waddle if he's still OTB would be an easy pick for me.
They can pretend they are, but not with Big Ben and a bad OL lol. Their running game woes weren't only because Connor sucked. Their record was a farce last year, and I could honestly see them as the worst team in that division next year. They put themselves in a really weird spot bringing Ben back instead of going after someone else. But yeah, I wouldn't be shocked by them taking Harris at all, just that they definitely have other needs, that is not a complete team right now.
Well I want Najee. Last I heard he was gonna slip. So depending on where the Dolphins peg him to land I'd like to have a big back like him in my backfield again pushing/dragging linemen if he has to. I want that pick for Tua. Just like I want a top pass catcher+play maker for Tua at #6. But if the Dolphins predict him to slip all the way to 36, or if they trade up from 36, it all depends on the gamble and who they are targeting at the end of the day at 18. But as usual the Dolphins' probably have something totally different planned than any of us can anticipate for both our firsts. I would not be surprised, because I know Grier is capable of surprise so I won't be. I won't be surprised if we 'reach' will all of our picks just to get who Grier thinks will add to Miami.
The consensus seems to be there's only one RB in this draft that can be an every down back out of the gate. The Dolphins may consider that. There are some other good backs in this draft that may or may not start straight away. But none of them have been talked about as 1st round prospects. None of them have the size that Najee has. We'd be crazy (i think) not to grab him at 18 even if it is a slight reach. I don't think it is because he's the only back worth having in this draft (to me) that will take a heavy burden off Tua, which is what we should be focusing on at least in the 1st round. The 1st round is all about 'How do we give Tua the best tools to succeed right away' as far as I'm concerned.
Is that consensus Javonte Williams? Because many people (myself included) not only believe that he's the best runner in the class, but that he's also a solid receiver on traditional RB routes and perhaps the best pass blocker too.
My personal definition of "reach" is taking somebody that you want/need when he'll likely be there the next time you pick. For example: Picking somebody in the first round who has a second round grade isn't a reach if you pick at 36 and he has a high second round grade. I'd be gobsmacked if Harris is there at 36. If he's a reach at 18, it's justifiable IMO.
Hmm why not Michael Carter? Don't recall Javonte ever being rated above Najee. For obvious reason. Split carry back with less production in college. Why in the world would we make that decision? I only see that if we wait til 36 to pick RB.
I’d rather get Williams in the 2nd and go after the top available pass rusher at 18. But I’m one of those people that just doesn’t like taking RB’s in the 1st round and values DE/OLB over RB.
Saw much more of Harris and Etienne due to their teams getting more TV time. Why do you like him more than those two?
I like Etienne. He reminds me of Lamar Miller, and I think that he has Clinton Portis type ability as a ceiling, but I'm not sure he'll get there, or be allowed to. I just don't see Harris as being a special runner, or elite as a receiver either. I'm puzzled by what others see in him, and think that if he played somewhere other than Bama, he'd never be seen as a 1st round pick. I think that Williams is an excellent runner. Thick, tough and strong, and he bounces off of people and keeps his balance at an elite level. He's also good as a receiver, and I've read multiple places that he might be the best pass blocking RB in this class. I watch him and think that he can be 2016 Jay Ajayi year after year, plus he'll only be 21 years old this season and doesn't have a lot of wear and tear from college, so barring injury, he could be a good one for years down the line.
Couldn’t agree more on RB value. I like LB/DE (In this order) before we consider an RB at 18; Parsons Paye Collins Phillips and Ojulari I doubt any of the above make it to 36. Not too high on Rousseau, Oweh or Owusu-Komoroah i haven’t looked into Basham Jr enough to have an opinion on him.
His upside is soooo high. It’s a risk/reward play for sure. But I’m comparing taking him vs taking a running back. RB’s are always an injury risk... It’s the default nature of that position. With both being risky, Give me Phillips and the top tier pass rush potential.
I like your list. IF Oweh was there at 36, I'd roll the dice. He wasn't as productive as he should have been in college but that athleticism is intriguing. I actually like Collins more than Paye just for his ability to cover but I think I'm splitting hairs at that point. It is intriguing that there are no top 5-10 worthy pass rushers which tells you that all of them have some type of question mark. I'd love to see something like: 6. Chase/Pitts 18. Collins 36. Oweh or best pass rusher available 50. Williams 81. Quinn Meinerz I think our fastest path to a Super Bowl, outside of Tua making major strides, is get our defense to championship level. We made big investments in our OL in last years draft and if we add a couple of playmakers this year, I really like our chances.
To many injuries already + he quit once already, no thanks for me. I‘m fine with them taking a edge player at #18 but none from UM please.
Interesting. I think you’re the first person I’ve read that’s not impressed with Harris. Only time will tell, but if they don’t select him or Etienne at 18 then they’d better get Williams at 36 or our running game is going to be a liability again this year, IMO.
I think when you build a good enough OL, a lot of RBs can be plug and play with a high level of success. Not Derrick Henry level but I can't remember the last time a team that won a Super Bowl also had the leading rusher in the NFL. That's why I think drafting a RB in the first round, especially with the needs we have on OL and DE/OLB, is a waste. 4/5 of the top 5 leading rushers were drafted in rounds 2-4.