New General Manager - Miami Hires Jon-Eric Sullivan

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/articl...ullivan-as-new-general-manager-151035410.html

 

Reactions? Not sure if this is good news or not. Happy to see someone from the Packers as I think they're one of the better front offices.

 

Well with us hiring Sullivan instead of Alexander, I think we’re going to miss out on Harbaugh

 

It was Sullivan who said metrics/analytics play a part but it is more about what is on tape? That's encouraging after Grier's "reach for the stars" approach

 

Good to have him on board! Packers have been a solid organization for a long time. Let's go!

 

I have no real opinion on Sullivan because for me there's no real track record to consider. No idea what Packer picks or moves he supported and/or which ones he dissented on. If the Dolphins asked, I suspect he told them he supported the good picks/moves and dissented on the bad ones, which may or may not be true. Doesn't look like he has any real decision-making experience. I'd have preferred someone who wasn't a nepo guy, but most are so I don't hold it against him too much. But hope for the best, as always.

 

Feels like this means we are out on Harbaugh. I think the reporting was saying he wanted to pick his GM so...

 

He's a scout and said he wants to build through the draft. At least that's refreshing.

 

I definitely think that we will do significantly better in the draft.

I do worry that Green Bay may not be a 1:1 model of what we need in Miami. Green Bay is a team that is designed to play in inclement weather. I am okay with designing a team like GB, but it needs a Miami flare. Who knows? Sully might agree with this too.

My fear - I am nervous about him hiring a coach. I would bet that he winds up hiring someone that he has previously worked with. The thought of him getting this far to ultimately hire a rando doesn't seem right to me. The GB names that are hot are all defensive minded guys, and I really want an offensive guy.

These are initial thoughts and concerns, but they may or may not be wind up being unfounded.

 

Chris Grier was a scout and repeatedly said he wanted to build through the draft too. Pretty much every GM says that.

 

Grier may have SAID that but seeing how egregious our salary cap situation is, it’s quite evident he did the opposite, built the team through free agency and augmented with the draft.

 

It would have been acceptable, maybe, if he had augmented through the draft but he didn't

 

Not really. He accumulated draft picks in the last rebuilt and then traded some picks for stars much like the Packers did with the Parsons trade. The cap problems came from giving too big contracts and extensions to existing players on the team. The Dolphins haven’t had a huge FA pickup in a long time. Armstead was the closest and his was still at a discount based on his injury and availability history. Grier was pretty frugal in free agency, including not resigning or overpaying good players he drafted.

 

Malik Willis could be coming now.

 

I'd like that. Saves us a draft pick. GB did some of the work developing the guy.

 

Could be a good move. He injured his shoulder in his last game. Supposedly it was a minor injury. I would only do it if it was a short deal at a reasonable price because he still would most likely be just a bridge QB until they can draft one next year. However, he most likely boosted his price with his recent performance.

I would still like them to draft a QB late in this draft. I like Sawyer Robinson from Baylor with a late round pick. If nothing else, maybe they can finally find some solid depth/backups which this team has been lacking.

 

Agree. I've always thought a team should draft a QB every year in the mid/late rounds until you finally hit on one. There are enough examples like Brady, Warner, Romo, Moon and even Unitas and Starr who were undrafted or late round draft picks to try and get lucky.

 

I think there are guys in those later rounds that could be good, but teams/coaches seem to have no real ability to recognize that even when they have those guys in practice every day. And nobody gives those guys any chance to actually win a starting job; that only comes if they are forced into it through injury to the starter.

Belichick had Brady for a full season when the Pats decided to give Bledsoe the biggest contract of all-time to that point -- a 10 yr deal -- even though he was coming off 2 consecutive seasons with passer ratings in the 70s and missing the playoffs. He had no intention of ever letting Brady see the field unless Bledsoe got hurt.

Holmgren (with Mariucci, Gruden and Reid on the offensive staff) had Warner in training camp in '94 on a minimal contract and decided he wasn't even worth having on the roster. Warner then did get on the Rams roster in 1998 but Vermeil and Jerry Rhome saw no reason to play him even in a 4-12 season. They had no intention of playing him in 1999 either, as they got Trent Green to be the starter (who himself had toiled as a backup for years on teams with terrible QBs and supposed QB guru coaches until he got a chance). It wasn't until Green was injured for the season that Warner was given a real chance to show what he could do.

Parcells (with Sean Payton as QB coach and assistant HC) had Romo on roster for 3 years with no playing time while Quincy Carter and the corpses of Vinny Testaverde and Drew Bledsoe played QB. It wasn't until the 4th season and Bledsoe playing poorly to start the season that they gave Romo the chance to play and show what he could do in real games.

Moon had proven himself in the CFL by the time he got to the NFL at age 28.

Unitas was cut in training camp by the Steelers who kept 3 QBs ahead of him. He was then a backup to George Shaw, who appears to have been pretty bad (before my time), and didn't get his chance until Shaw got hurt.

Starr was a backup on a bad team before he got a chance and then was himself bad for a few years before turning it around.

So you can keep drafting guys late and it may pay off if your starter gets hurt for an extended period and they get a real chance to play, but most likely they'll toil on the bench even if they are better than the starter because no coach/team ever really gives a late pick QB a chance to win the starting job.

 

Yes that's true. It's something I've noted myself when discussing the legacy of Belichick. Belichick was definitely a great defensive mind, but not only was he an average coach (win%) in Cleveland and NE without Brady, he got lucky with Brady, and of course Brady wins a SB without Belichick. Belichick is lucky to have won so many SBs and be considered one of the greatest HCs in NFL history.

Regarding the strategy of drafting a QB late until you find a franchise QB, it's worth noting that the probability of finding such a QB already includes the "luck" part of injury to the starter. Injury to the starter happens quite often, even if it's usually for a few games per season, which is why I think it's a good strategy (as opposed to just sticking with a known backup who will never be great).

 

McCarthy won a Super Bowl, has a record comparable to Harbaugh's and had success with two different teams. Dak's injuries in Dallas brought down the record, but he even went 9-5 with Cooper Rush (who went 0-2 under Harbaugh). His offenses have led the NFL in scoring 4 times. I'd be good with him.

 

I don't really oppose it, but just wouldn't be rigid in the "every year" thing. If there's a guy in the later rounds who you have a conviction in then take him, but don't force it.

 

He ended up doing that because he was so bad at Drafting.

 

I give this hire a 6 or 7 out of 10 as my initial reaction. I think it hurts our chances at Harbaugh who should be our top choice for HC.

This seems like another weak idiotic hire from Ross that has us missing out on the best coach available. But hey, at least this guy shares my first and middle names! Jon Eric. I'll take that as a good omen and hope for the best.

 

That's like 6 dudes vs hundreds to thousands of actual picks. And Romo wasn't drafted, so instead of wasting a draft pick maybe just sign UDFAs?

1000% this. If anyone could reliably sus out good QBs in late rounds, they would be the greatest scout/GM in history. The reality is that snaps are too limited to give third/fourth string guys a good look in practice, let alone getting them into games where mostly they look like Nathan Peterman or Max Brosmer.

If you think a dude has the measurables and does well in interviews or whatever during the draft process grab one every so often. But forcing a pick every year is an absolute waste. At least with non-QB positions you have things like special teams they can contribute to.

 

6 dudes out of how many great QBs? There aren't that many very good/great QBs. Maybe 20-30 in NFL history. It's actually a pretty high percentage of "hits" given how few hits there are overall. The failure rate even with #1 picks is astonishing, which goes to show you how much of talent evaluation, especially at QB, is luck — acknowledging there is some skill in evaluation due to the higher probabilities of finding a hit in the earlier rounds.

 

It would be an extraordinary coincidence if the only late round and UDFA QBs that could be great happened to also be "fortunate" enough for the QB in front of them to go out for an extended period of time to give them a chance to show what they can do. I'm sure there are others who just didn't get "lucky" like that. But I agree it is hard to know who they are and the system by which teams/coaches really only trust their eyes on high draft pick guys makes it often wasteful to draft late round guys. That said, I wouldn't focus on measurables, as the late round and UDFA guys who have been successful generally haven't had great measurables.

 

Since we just hired this guy, considering our luck, all the pain and disappointments we’ve endured as Phin fans in recent years/decades, you all know Greenbay is going to lose tonight, right?

 

And if they don't? Does that mean a reversal of fortunes?!

 

Hopefully? It’s looking good.

Who knows? At this point, I’m “comfortably numb”.

 

Uncanny lol. At least we get our GM early.

 

lol. ……”bleep”.

 

I fell asleep watching the game last night. I woke up and it was midway through the 3rd quarter and saw Green Bay was leading 17-6 I think it was, went to bed and imagine my surprise when I woke this morning and saw that Chicago found a way to come back and win.

Was it that Green Bay choked or is Chicago REALLY that good?

Well, we'll see what happens in the next week or so. I hope Sullivan is able to get Harbaugh but if it ends up being LeFluer, I won't be disappointed.

Now...GO JAGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

That’s right, it was 21-6. Blurry and groggy old eyes before stumbling to bed lol

 

I'm a Jon also, and if I wasn't, I'd want to be an Eric. Great name, so kudos to you for being both. I had a massively oversized, military surplus greatcoat called 'Eric' in my youth. It was big enough to fit both myself and my girlfriend in, which was ideal at the bus stop on a cold evening.