All in all the first predictions sound about right. I think the Ravens may lose 2 more though but 9-7 for Miami feels right for some reason.
I actually think tonight's game between the Ravens and Packers is as critical, in relation to the Dolphins playoff hopes, as yesterday's game with the Patriots. Miami is 2 games back of Denver and they're not going to catch them in the race for the #5 seed. Ultimately, looking at Baltimore's remaining schedule, I see two potential losses for the Ravens @ Green Bay (tonight) and @ Pittsburgh (in a few weeks). We need them to lose both of those games in order to truly "control our own destiny." I think if Baltimore wins tonight, it closes the door on Miami's playoff hopes because then we're relying on the likes of the Lions, Bears and Raiders (two of those 3 games will be played in Baltimore) to bail us out and pull an upset. I don't like those chances.
What I find upsetting is that even if we win all 4 of our games, we have to rely on an upset. And the only single game outcome that will alleviate that upset is the Pats vs Bills. That will set us up if we sweep the rest of the year.
Actually, the outcome of tonight's game is irrelevant. We need Baltimore to lose an AFC game. Then we beat them at a 10-6 tie breaker. Looking back on it, it would have been huge for us if Pitt had beaten Baltimonre a few weeks ago as we'd already control our own destiny for a WC. Similarly, the NE game against Carolina is irrelevant. We need them to likewise lose an AFC game to win the division. The only way that doesn't come into effect is if the Jets win out as well and we all finish 10-6, then we win the 3 way tie breaker regardless of where NE picks up its loss. The Buffalo/Indy losses loom so huge now. If we had won either game we'd have a game cushion to either win the div or the wc
I totally agree with you, tonights game is huge for the Fins. The other upset we could need is the Bills/NE.
"Irrelevant" may be too strong a term, if they lose those games we move one game closer to catching them, granted they win tie breakers unless of course they manage to lose another game as well.
Actually the Carolina game is not irrelevant. For a division tiebreaker, common opponents comes before conference record. Posted via Mobile Device
Ironic that the only way the "set wins" generator places us in the playoffs is by "points scored". It was just a short while ago we could have been in last place (annually) based upon "points scored".
If you look at it objectively... we are a lock for the playoffs if we go 10-6. The only way we can get in at 9-7 Objectively speaking is by having that one loss be against Tennesee or Houston. There is almost no scenario to get in if we lose to Jacksonville.
Well, somehow I managed to get us in as a #4 seed, playing Jax (as a #5 seed), even though I have us at 8-8 and them at 10-6? Don't ask me how. That was just going through it once quickly though. I'll put more effort into it as we get closer. I will say this though... 1) Winning out is gonna be a tough row to hoe. Two tough roads game in Jax and Tennessee, then we get our nemesis Houston (have we ever beaten them?). Then we finish up with the SB champion Steelers. Therefore, I forecasted us splitting the remaining games just to see what would happen. 2) That last game against Pitt could be HUGE as far as playoff implications go. And, for both teams. Pretty cool site. Thanks for sharing GH!
It looks that way. I worked that generator every which way.... I found it very hard to keep the Dolphins out if they go 10-6.... They even got in a ton at 9-7... I did find that it was almost impossible for the fins to get in if they lost to Jax.
I feel really good about us going 10-6. Really good. Coming back like that againstthe Pats was huge. It's the confidence builder we needed. Posted via Mobile Device
By the way... watch the Packs young Lb's and tell me upgrading our lb's wouldn't be huge Posted via Mobile Device
I remember doing this last year trying to find a wild card spot. And little did I know we wouldn't need it! Let's repeat that scenario...
Their strength of victory is likely higher than ours. Same with the Broncos. Ridiculous way to lose out if we do. It would require the Ravens winning out and New England winning out. The Bills owe us. They need to win against New England. Then we'll be the 4th seed and call this season a true success.
My honest picks for the last four weeks got us into the Playoffs at 9-7: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoff...=41400055&14=44014111&15=50000040&16=44041515
There's an awful lot of ways we end up as #6 playing in New England the first round of the playoffs. The rubber match on their turf. Would be a tough win.
Well, no, at least I don't think so, right now the ravens edge over Miami is their intraConference record, they are 6-4 in the AFC.. But here is our edge, we are 4-4, the last 4 games are all within the AFC, the Ravens last 4 include at least two more against the NFC, meaning if we win out we surpass their AFC win total.
How Pad? If both us and Balt. win out we're both 8-4 within the conference. I think then it goes to strength of victory which I'm not even going to try and understand at this point
My bad, I thought they played 3 NFC teams in their final 4 games, they play 2, and then play the Steelers and Raiders. So basically we need either an upset by the Bears or Lions, or the Steelers to win the rematch in Pittsburgh. And don't sleep on the Raiders though, last season they knocked Tampa Bay out of the playoffs last season on the final game of the season.
Certainly a scenario I can see playing out. However, this is what I think we will see. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoff...=51511055&14=54154505&15=50040041&16=54041105 With that out of the way, here is a scenario where we actually get a bye. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoff...=51501015&14=54554505&15=50040050&16=54001145