Fineas

Maybe Rene Konga is the mid-late round heavy DE this defense could use. He played inside in college and would be a bit of a project moving to DE, but he's 6-3 or 6-4 (depending on source), 298 with 33" arms, a 4.78 40 and a 37" vertical. I wouldn't expect him to be a premium pass rusher, but it seems he could provide some versatility to play almost anywhere across the LOS.

"MrClean wrote:

One thing that is not a coincidence is that Miller was a very successful HS wrestler, and that usually means success as a lineman. He also has a proven record of durability. Max, having a shorter career, has had less opportunity to prove whether or not he is as durable as Miller.

It is a shorter career (other than the JUCO part for which I don't have any real info about his durability), but playing in 32 of 33 games the last two years (with the one he missed just due to opting out of the bowl game) seems to show pretty solid durability, or at least doesn't raise any concerns about it. He missed a few games in 2023 but with 2 clean years since then I don't see that as a real problem.

"MrClean wrote:

So, we should like both Jacas and Thomas, as good edge run defenders, but for a little different reasons?

Not really sure what to make of it. With Jacas it may be that he is kinda boom or bust when run at -- he either forces the RB to bounce or he doesn't and the offense has a successful play. With Thomas, it may be that scouts don't like his profile or technique, but the bottom line is that he is effective.

Some interesting run D stats for Edges from SIS below. This is sorted by the far right column -- POA Pos% -- which is the % of runs at that player that resulted in a positive EPA for the offense. For the Edge, the lower the better for this metric. The one to the left of that -- POA Bounce% -- is the % of runs at that player's gap in which the RB bounced elsewhere. The higher the better for that metric. The results are arguably unexpected, with a guy like R Mason Thomas, who has been portrayed as not a great run defender at the POA, at the top in POA Pos %, and Gabe Jacas, who is viewed as a strong POA player, with the highest POA Pos%. Then you have a few notable guys, like Moore and Young, who do well in POA Pos% but don't cause a lot of bounces. Faulk, who is viewed by most as a strong POA run defender is pretty pedestrian by both metrics. Same for Bain.

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"Paul 13 wrote:

why is a TFL not an impact play, based on your metrics?

I mean, I'm using AI (so FWIW), but it's quoting the following with INT, PBU, FF, Sacks and TFL:
Downs 38.5 on 2,489 plays, 1 per 64.6
Thieneman 33.5 on 2,422 plays, 1 per 72.3
Haulcy 33.5 on 2,800(est), 1 per 83.6
EMW 13 on 1861, 1 per 143.2.

I agree that a TFL is an impact play. I didn't include it because I was using PFF for the stats and PFF doesn't track TFLs. They track Stops, but those are different and include a lot of tackles past the LOS. But adding TFLs (using PFR) doesn't really change things that much for Downs compared to the others:

Downs -- 35 in 2489 snaps -- 1 per 71
Thieneman -- 36 in 2417 snaps -- 1 per 67
EMW -- 42 in 1861 snaps -- 1 per 43
Haulcy -- 33.5 in 2823 snaps -- 1 per 84

So adding TFLs moves Downs above Haulcy, but he's still behind Thieneman and EMW.

"Paul 13 wrote:

fair questions, if all you want to do is look at metrics, then he's not the player for you.

last year, I probably saw more Ohio State games than other teams. Though I watched a lot of Miami / Alabama / Oklahoma / Indiana. So those five teams, I would say rank about the same in terms of games I saw live (not highlights). In the same context as Bain, Downs has a knack for being around the ball and enforcing himself on the opponent. He's 100% an alpha. And you can't measure this type of thing (effort) with your impact play metrics. You can't measure leadership in a number. Yet Downs was the team captain on that defense. OSU were the #1 defense in college football last season. Would you think Downs played with better players around him than say any of the other safeties you mentioned? Would that have an effect on his impact play metrics? You think of how much talent OSU have on defense. Four first round picks if you include McDonald (though he might go 2nd round).

Downs has high football IQ. He would be capable of wearing the green dot as a rookie safety. He was in charge of pre snap and post snap directions for that defense. Essentially the quarterback of the defense. I wouldn't mind having a player like that on the Dolphins.

IMO, there's only two blue chip players in this draft, Mendoza and Love. The rest of the likely first rounders have some level of questions. Including Downs. But if he slides to 11, or starts to drop past 5 and the Giants, he starts to look really attractive if all i'm giving up is say 11 and 3.75 to move up and get him. Also, don't discount Hafley's relationship with OSU head coach Ryan Day. I'm sure they've spoken about the players in this draft from OSU. And he probably has some "inside" knowledge there.

Obviously I don't only want to look at metrics, which is why I specifically and explicitly asked for particular plays. I did also ask for any metrics that support it in case I missed one, but it doesn't seem there are any.

I've watched a fair amount of him and while he's a good player, as I already said, I didn't see anything special or unique. Nor have you identified anything special or unique. Every team has leaders. Plenty of guys are alphas. A lot of guys have high football IQs. And your knowledge of that stuff isn't based on any first-hand knowledge or observations. I can read about that stuff too but that stuff doesn't make a safety into a Top 11 pick for me if it isn't also accompanied by impact plays.

"Paul 13 wrote:

reading some tea leaves there... seems the Giants and what they do at 5 will have a huge impact on what is available for us at 11. he said it's possible the NYG might come down to Mauigoa and Downs at 5. and if they don't take either one and go WR instead, there's a chance that both Downs and Mauigoa are there at 11, as well as Bain (who wasn't even mentioned in his video). He said Mauigoa has a back issue that could affect things but it's not debilitating. But he also said the floor for Downs is at 10 with the Bengals. I don't know how much sourcing Breer has in Miami anymore (did that go away with Grier leaving). He's had a history of dropping some nuggets. The other caveat is trades. Picks 3 to 6 (before Washington at 7) all want to move down as there's no premium player (can't miss guy) in this draft. It's very unlikely we move up, but it wouldn't surprise me. We've certainly got the ammunition to do it in this draft. For me, there's only one guy I move up for, and that's Caleb Downs. I think he's that special.

What is it about Downs that you feel is so special? Any particular plays or metrics?

I see a good all-around player, but I don't think he has special speed, size or athleticism. He hasn't done any testing at all, which is highly unusual, and tends to confirm my belief he is not a special athlete as I think he'd want to prove it if he was. He also doesn't get his hands on the ball all that much. In terms of career snaps per impact play (INTs+PBUs+FF+Sacks+QB Hits):

EWM -- 31 in 1861 snaps -- 1 per 60 snaps
Thieneman -- 26 in 2417 snaps -- 1 per 93 snaps
Haulcy -- 29 in 2823 snaps -- 1 per 97 snaps
Downs -- 19 in 2489 snaps -- 1 per 131 snaps

I think safety can be a high value position -- guys like Reed, Polamalu, Lott, Thomas, etc. certainly were -- but to be that IMO they have to be turnover forcers. Downs really hasn't been that. Everyone raves about him and although I don't see what he's doing as special, I'll take their word for it that he is always where he is supposed to be. I just don't think that makes him good value at 11.

For me, McCoy is really a medical call. If it was just a garden-variety ACL tear that was repaired more than a year ago with no complications I'm not too worried about it. He had just turned 19 on August 16, 2024 when he was holding SEC offenses to a 54 rating and 50% completion % when targeted and intercepting 4 passes.

"MrClean wrote:

Danielle Hunter's college sack numbers were not good at all, and he was drafted almost purely on physical upside, which panned out.

Hunter was a 3rd round pick -- 88th overall. It's one thing to gamble on physical upside at 88; it's a much bigger gamble at 11 or even 30.

"MrClean wrote:

I'm aware of some of the reasons why with Max. That does not seem like a good reason to rank him ahead of Miller, though.

IMO, the two players are pretty close right now, but I think Max has higher upside and it took him only 5 years to "catch" Miller at something Miller has been doing his whole life. I think that trajectory is likely to continue and in the long run Max will be the better player. I'm not saying Max will be as good, but it brings to mind a Nigerian basketball player (Hakeem Olajuwon) who didn't start playing the game until he was 15 and 6 years later was the first pick in the NBA Draft. At that point it was still mostly just physical talent and he was fairly raw as a basketball player, but he ultimately developed perhaps the best footwork of any NBA big man. Similar story with Giannis Antetokounpo, also of Nigerian heritage, who didn't start playing basketball until he was 13 but was in the NBA at age 19 and 2-time MVP by 26. I guess the football version of the story is Christian Okoye, another Nigerian, who didn't start playing football until 23 and five years later led the NFL in rushing. I think the rapid advancement after taking up the sport so late suggests that the growth trajectory will continue. The Nigerian connection in all these stories may, or may not, be coincidence.

"sports24/7 wrote:

Branch was very much a gadget player in college. Almost 2/3 of his catches came at or behind the LOS.

I'd be pretty upset if they took him in the 3rd round. I could maybe be convinced to take him in round 4, but I'd feel better about it later. I will be pretty surprised if he goes in round 2 with his profile, but maybe I'm wrong.

I think Brenen Thompson is being overlooked as a real WR. He does have great speed, but he's a legit skilled WR IMO. He had a YRR of 2.77, which was better than most of the top WRs in the draft, and had 1054 yards on 18.5 ypc. His yards per target was over 12. Only 3 of his receptions were on screens. His ADOT was 18.4.

Yeah, he's small, but he does a good job against press coverage and destroys gusy that try to press him and fail. He tracks and adjusts to the ball very well. He will be one of the 5 (or so) fastest players in the NFL (4.26 40 at the Combine) and although I haven't seen 3-cone or shuttle times, it's not just straight-line speed and he knows how to vary his speed and acceleration to set up DBs (and usually blow past them).

"VanDolPhan wrote:

Not sure why the argument over WR receiver at 11. This is a Green Bay staff making picks here. Taking a WR at 11 would be the first sign of a coming apocalypse. Even for a WR desperate team like Miami. 30 or 43 are far more likely with another in the 3rd. Trenches is very very likely for 11.

Well, there are no DTs worthy of 11 and its fairly likely there won't be any edges worthy of 11. As for OL, the Packers haven't drafted an OL in the Top 15 since Tony Mandarich in 1989. That didn't work out well. The only other OL taken by the Packers in the Top 22 since 1989 was Aaron Taylor at 16 in 1994. So they really haven't been any more prone to drafting OL high than WR.

"sports24/7 wrote:

I think that's a fair question, but I wonder how much weight to put in some statistics like this when some of these guys are playing with lackluster QB play. Just in watching the LSU game, there were multiple times where Concepcion beat Delane in zone, but didn't get the ball. And I'd be interested to see how a QB like Marcel Reed performed against zone vs man. I'd bet he had more success against man. I do think Concepcion's skillset should equate to more success against man than zone, but I don't think I'd expect him to struggle against zone with a better QB, and a good system.

Yeah, QB play and scheme have to be taken into account for every WR metric and evaluation. I don't see this as any different. None of these stats are definitive about anything, but they can reveal trends and valuable info.

I haven't seen numbers for college, but in the NFL pretty much every QB throws to the first read 60-70% of the time and pretty much every QB is successful throwing to the first read. So scheme, playcalling and QB play a huge role in determining who will get the target and whether that target is even catchable. Guys who may tend to be 2nd reads, like Tate, logically will have lower YRRs and lower numbers across the board. I don't think they benefit much from more favorable coverage matchups because defenses are usually playing zone, most don't meaningfully tile their zones due to any particular player, and in man few college CBs (and few NFL CBs) travel with a particular receiver.

"Disgustipate wrote:

Not for nothing, but it seems a little suspect to me that Miami is noisily bringing AJ Epenesa in a week before the draft with no cap space until June.

What makes it noisily and suspect? Doesn’t seem like it has been announced or reported differently than most FA visits of that type. And there’s an obvious positional need there.

"sports24/7 wrote:

I don't think I value him at 11, but I do think his ceiling is a St. Brown or Njigba type. His size is almost exactly the same as St. Brown. St. Brown measured 3/8" taller and 5lbs heavier at the combine than Lemon. Lemon's arms are 1/8" longer. Lemon's hands are a little bit smaller, but I don't think anyone would question Lemon's hands, so that's not really an issue. Their 40 times are also essentially the same with Lemon not running at the combine but running in the high 4.4s to low 4.5s at his pro day, and St. Brown running a 4.51 at his pro day. Even if you go with Cosell's evaluation that he's in between St. Brown and Shakir, that may be worth the 11th pick depending on which player he's closer to. Personally, I think he's much better than Shakir.

All that being said, I really don't think they'll take him at 11, and agree with you that I'd feel much better about him in a trade back. I still maintain that I may even prefer Concepcion to him, overall, and if you can get Boston at 30 I may prefer that even to taking Lemon in the teens.

I like Concepcion and he's a lot of fun to watch, but he's one of the guys that hasn't had a very good YRR vs. Zone and that metric has been pretty stunningly effective at identifying the high pick WRs that bust. Roughly 70-75% of NFL coverages are zone so you have to be effective/productive against zone to be productive/effective overall. The "cutoff" metric I've seen is 2.0 YRR v. zone. I tend to think a strict cutoff isn't all that useful. The things I have seen have used career YRR vs. Zone and I believe Concepcion and Boston were both either under the 2.0 figure or very close to it. I'm too lazy to compile the career numbers for everyone, but here are the 2025 numbers of the notable WRs in the draft:

SBell -- 3.16
Cooper Jr. -- 3.15
Brazell -- 3.10
Lemon -- 3.09
Hurst -- 2.99
Thompson -- 2.96
Tate -- 2.71
Concepcion -- 2.52
Bell -- 2.52
Sarratt -- 2.24
Tyson -- 2.18
Boston -- 2.17
Stribling -- 1.99
Fields -- 1.98

Conception is well above 2.0 for 2025 so it may be that he has started to figure out how to effective against zone. Boston (and surprisingly, Tyson) were pretty low. Boston was at 1.61 in 2024 and Tyson was at 2.34 in 2024. Lemon was at 3.60 in 2024.

"Da 'Fins wrote:

The question you have to ask about Lemon is do you value him at 11?

Amon Ra is worth that. And he has been compared to him. But he is also not as big. He is closer a poor man’s Ra. And he doesn’t have speed to kill you deep. Cosell argues he’s a combo of or in between an Amon Ra and Shakir.

Is that worth the 11th pick? This isn’t Njigba. If we were able to trade out of 11 and drop to the teens maybe. He won’t likely be there at 30.

I don't really want 11 used on a WR, but I'm puzzled by the insistence that Lemon is clearly inferior to St. Brown, who went in the 4th round and JSN, who went at 20. Lemon is within an inch and 5 lbs of both of those guys and with about the same 40 time. Any suggestion that any size difference there is meaningful is nonsense.

Lemon has played mostly in the slot but he has been hugely productive when outside the slot. Among the top WRs in the draft, Lemon's non-slot YRR is higher than any of the other top WRs in the draft and just a hair below Jeremiah Smith's. In terms of target % outside the slot, he is in the same 29-33% range as any of the top WRs in the draft and higher than Jeremiah Smith's.

It is a bit curious that Lemon didn't do the shuttle or 3-cone at the combine or at his pro day. Those were the metrics where St. Brown and JSN shined. For a player whose competitiveness has been touted as being elite, it's interesting that he declined to do the tests that are usually most predictive of slot WR success.

"MiamiDolphin618 wrote:

Yeah I’m talking about a pro projection. If someone thinks Lemon is St Brown/JSN they should take him as wr1 and like top
5

Some do have him as WR1. One can “think” he’s St Brown/JSN but there are no sure things so those thoughts still carry some risk.

"MiamiDolphin618 wrote:

I heard a comp for Makai Lemon today that I liked and it was Golden Tate.

I think St Brown and JSN are a little optimistic. Tate played a long time was a very good player. In his prime he was a #1 guy. He was also super tough, physical etc.

I dunno, Lemon likely will be drafted higher than St. Brown and JSN were and seems to be viewed as an equivalent prospect to JSN and a better one than St. Brown when he was coming out.

"VanDolPhan wrote:

Ugh. Any other players in this draft they could take a shot at and do the job? Spending a first on a guy whose pass rushers skills are questionable isn't ideal. Gotta be cheaper draft guys with the build who can set the edge?

LT Overton is the Day 2 guy that comes to mind for me.

For me, McCoy is almost completely a question/decision for the medical staff. As a player based on 2024 he is easily worthy of 11. If the ACL repair was clean and he has a clean bill of health, then I don't hold the injury against him as he should be good to go as a 20 yr old guy who will be more than 1.5 yrs removed from the injury and surgery by the time the season starts. But there are vague rumblings there may be a degenerative issue there and, if so, I'd steer clear until 30th at the earliest and probably later than that.

But injury aside, McCoy's dominant play in the SEC when he had just turned 19 is pretty impressive.