I’m all-in on Malik Willis. He has played extremely well the last two years, albeit in limited opportunities. His physical ability is through the roof: great speed and elusiveness, a cannon for an arm, very quick release, and he throws off-platform extremely well. In terms of raw tools, he has as much physical talent as any QB in the NFL IMO. Physical talent only goes so far at QB—processing and reading defenses matter more. But Willis has done those things at a very high level in his opportunities the last two years. It’s a small sample size, but these games represent his 4th to 6th NFL starts. You’d be hard-pressed to find a QB who was better in his 4th–6th starts than Willis: passer rating over 120 in each of them, great downfield accuracy, huge rushing threat, and no signs of any issues reading defenses or processing in those games. Holding his first three NFL starts as a rookie on a bad team after coming out of Liberty against him is foolish. He’s a different QB now. He got Tom Clements coaching last year and it seems they’ve stuck to the same principles this year. It’s no surprise that a phenomenally talented but raw small-school QB has grown a lot. There are no guarantees with anything or anyone—but if Willis’ intangibles are good enough for Sullivan to want him, then it becomes a good bet. I can’t speak meaningfully to his intangibles, but he’s been in the league for four years without incident. His significant improvement speaks well to his ability to improve and his work ethic. And from what I have seen, he has a good, infectious personality. During his Pro Day, the commentators repeatedly commented on how it was the loosest and most joyful one they had ever seen, and it was a very impressive performance as well. While some people act like “signing a backup QB to be a starter” is automatically a joke, but history says otherwise. The Vikings signed a backup QB to be their QB in 2024 and he helped lead them to a 14-3 record before leaving for Seattle and leading them to a 14-3 record. The Niners once signed a backup QB who won a few MVPs, went to the HOF and won a SB. The Rams once signed a backup QB who won MVP his first year as a starter, won a second MVP, went to 3 SBs, won a SB and went to the HOF. The talent level is undeniable. I don’t think anyone could honestly watch him and not see that he has supreme talent—absolutely elite, not just “good.” He might not have the strongest arm in the NFL. But he might. We have no real objective criteria by which to measure that, but the available data says he is in the mix. I’ve seen him complete (in stride) passes he threw 70 yards in the air. I’ve seen him complete multiple 60–65 yard passes in stride. That’s rare—leaguewide, that kind of thing happens just a few times a year. At the Senior Bowl one pass of his had an initial velocity of 75.7 mph, which was a record. His average pass velocity of 48.5 was the highest in his draft class. I don’t think extreme arm strength is all that important, but it’s nice to have and he has it. Whether 1 or 2 or 10 other QBs have equivalent or stronger arms doesn’t really matter. He might not be the fastest QB in the NFL. But he might be. Like most of the other fastest QBs, he didn’t run the 40 at the combine or his Pro Day. But like Jackson and Murray, he reportedly ran in the mid 4.3s (4.37) at Auburn. Maybe a few guys can or have run slightly faster, but not many and not by much. And, of course, it doesn’t really matter if he is the fastest, 3rd fastest or 5th fastest—he’s extremely fast. He might not be the best runner among NFL QBs. But he might be. He had 84 missed tackles forced his last year at Liberty, which led the nation, including RBs. Some of that was against lesser competition, but he did it against the big schools too and he has done it at an elite level in the NFL. Excluding kneel downs and tush pushes, he has averaged 9.2 yards per carry the last two years, which is substantially higher than guys like Jackson, Allen and Hurts. He has forced a missed tackle on 26% of his carries, which is also substantially higher than those guys. That 26% missed tackle rate is consistent with his career number. Bijan Robinson led all RBs in 2025 in MTFs by a wide margin and forced a missed tackle on 30% of his carries. But the next best RBs, like Taylor (20.7%), Gibbs (25.5%), Cook (19.1%) and Achane (20.6%) were all below Willis’ rate. Again, whether he’s the best runner, 3rd best runner or 6th best runner doesn’t matter—he’s an excellent runner. There are no specific metrics I’m aware of for throwing from different arm slots. But Willis does it a lot and very well. Notably enough that as a guy who has only started 3 games in the last 3 years, Sports Illustrated published an article titled “Packers’ Malik Willis is King of Funky-Arm-Angle Completions.” https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/onsi/malik-willis-is-king-of-funky-arm-angle-completions Matt LaFleur—who has been around other QBs with great arms, like Rodgers and Love—has said of Willis: “He can make any throw on the planet. I’d put him up against anybody.” In terms of throwing on the run or with feet shuffling, 90% of his passes on the move last year were deemed catchable and 80% on-target. Best in the league of players with more than 7 such attempts. Some metrics for Malik Willis the last two years: Passing 70/89 (78.6%) for 972 yds, 10.9 ypa, 13.9 ypc, 6 TD, 0 INT and passer rating of 134.6. Best in league. Rushing Excluding kneel down and tush-push runs, 29 carries for 268 yards (9.2 ypc) and 3 TDs Missed tackles forced Forced 11 missed tackles in 42 rush attempts (26.1%). Josh Allen forced 43 in 243 attempts (17.7%). Jackson forced 55 in 227 attempts (24.2%). Hurts forced 36 in 294 attempts (12.2%). SIS accuracy 82 of 89 passes (92.1%) of passes deemed catchable by SIS. Best in league. 68 of 89 passes (76.4%) of passes deemed on-target by SIS. Best in league. Depth of target Completed 4 of 6 (66.7%) passes of 30+ air yards. 2nd best in league. Completed 9 of 10 (90%) passes of 20-29 air yards. Best in league. Completed 10 of 14 (71.4%) of passes of 10-19 air yards. 3rd best in league. 56 of 59 (94.9%) passes of 9 or fewer air yards were catchable. 2nd best in league. Under pressure Willis had the best Under Pressure PFF grade of any QB in the league last year at 92.5. Next best was 84.9. He completed 12 of 13 for 219 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs under pressure, for a perfect passer rating of 158.3. In 2024, he was 5 of 7 for 134 yards under pressure for a rating of 113.7. When blitzed 2024: 13 of 21 for 184 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs, for a passer rating of 129.8. 2nd best in the league and best of anyone with more than 8 such pass attempts. 2025: 10 of 11 for 108 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs, for a passer rating of 137.9. Again 2nd best in the league and best of anyone with more than 8 such attempts. To put the last two years in even more context: his 128.5 (NFL formula) passer rating over the last two seasons against NFL competition in meaningful games is about the same as Fernando Mendoza’s Heisman-winning numbers against college kids in 2025. Here are some “highlight” videos from each of the last two seasons. I put highlight in quotes because between the two videos it’s over 9 minutes of only about 3 games worth of play. Roughly half of Willis’ plays were legit highlights. And yes, highlights are just highlights but having 9+ minutes of highlights is pretty normal for a 17 game season, not for just 3 games worth of play. It’s not normal to have 3 games of play provide 9+ minutes of highlights without a lot of replay or dead space (there’s some after 2 plays). Those videos show about half of his plays over the last two years. If Willis’s numbers the last two years were extrapolated to a 600 pass attempt season, it would be 472 of 600 (78.6%) for 6,561 yards and 41 TDs with no INTs. I don’t expect him to really do that for a full season because no QB has ever come close to that. It would be the greatest QB season in NFL history by a country mile, even without considering his rushing. Even if one kept the number of pass attempts the same and just took away 20% of the completions, yards and TDs it’s still a 5000+ yard, 32 TD and 108.9 rating season. People bring up Matt Flynn as the cautionary tale, but it really doesn’t apply here. First, Flynn had low-level to middling physical talent. Willis has extreme physical talent. Second, Flynn’s “failure” is overstated: he was brought in to Seattle to compete with a rookie that turned out to be Russell Wilson. He lost, but there’s no shame in that. Then he got only 5 starts after that and wasn’t great, but wasn’t terrible—he won a few and one of the losses involved putting up 31 points. Third, Flynn’s huge Packers game was a meaningless season finale; Willis’ meaningful reps the last two years were against teams playing for something. Sure, I expect there will be competition for him. I don’t know Sullivan’s relationship with him. Maybe we have some Packers coaches on staff. We’ll see if any of that matters. I’m not expecting discounts, but if I were Willis I’d want to go somewhere that shows real conviction in me as a long-term starter—and it’s easiest to believe that if it’s coming from people who are very familiar with you. Due to the small NFL sample size there is absolutely risk here, but IMO that risk is a lot lower than for any QB the Dolphins might draft. Those guys have never done anything in the NFL and we know that over the years about 50% of 1st round QBs—including many drafted in the Top 5 and even No. 1 overall—don’t pan out. Most of those guys never play at the level Willis has played the last two years in meaningful games against NFL competition. Contract/Salary Cap Spotrac is projecting around $10M and is usually fairly accurate and OTC has like $2.5M, but I think those are way too low. If you believe in him, as I do, you want him on a multi-year deal. I want at least 3 years and would prefer 4. The basic model I’d look at for 3 would be the Mayfield deal from a few years ago—3 yrs, $100M but with a first year cap hit of just $6.9M. There’s been some inflation since then, but Willis has far less experience than Mayfield had and that’s a legit factor. So I think something like 3 yrs, $70M with a first year hit of only $2–3M is viable. I know that will blow a lot of people’s minds but if structured like Mayfield’s it would have much of that money in the 3rd year and non-guaranteed. How can the Dolphins do that under the cap? By NOT releasing Tua. Tua is getting $54M in guaranteed salary from the Dolphins no matter what. I don’t think any other team is going to take that on. I don’t think there’s anything that can be done about it. But if they release him before June 1 it will have an additional cap hit (over the $54M) of $42.9M. If they release him after June 1, the additional cap hit will be $11.1M. Just don’t do that. Keep him as part of the QB competition and “use” part of the $11.1M “saved” by not releasing Tua to pay Willis’ 2026 comp. Tua has no more guaranteed salary after 2026, so when his salary comes off the books most of Willis’ replaces it. I happen to be in the minority that thinks Tua can rebound to his previous form and if he did and won the starting job then so be it. If not, he’s still a high-end backup. I obviously think Willis would win the job. Yes, there are other cap issues the team will have to work through and it will. But the cap space for Willis, even on a 3/$75M deal, can effectively be the cap space not flushed down the toilet by releasing Tua. Personally, I’d try to do a 4 yr / $100M deal with $40M guaranteed: signing bonus of $16M, 1st year base of $2M guaranteed and 2nd year base of $22M guaranteed. The remaining $60M over years 3–4 but not guaranteed. First year cap hit for Willis would be $6M, which is a bit more than half of what would be “saved” by NOT releasing Tua after June 1. Second year cap hit would be $26M, which is about average for a starting QB—low end for a vet starter but higher than rookie QB starter. If he’s as good as I think he’ll be, it’s a bargain (as will the last two years). If he doesn’t pan out, you can cut him after the second year having paid $40M for two years, which really isn’t a lot for a QB. If he’s bad (he won’t be) it will be an overpay—but EVERY player is an overpay if they don’t play up to expectations. It’s the cost of doing business in the NFL. I’d also be fine with something like 4/$120M with $50M guaranteed: Signing bonus — $20M 1st year — $2M base + $5M prorated bonus = $7M cap hit 2nd year — $25M base (guaranteed) + $5M prorated bonus = $30M cap hit 3rd year — $5M base (guaranteed) + $20M roster bonus (not guaranteed) + $5M prorated bonus = $30M cap hit 4th year — $28M base (not guaranteed) + $5M prorated bonus = $33M cap hit If I’m right about this player, the 1st year is a huge cap bargain and the other years are still bargains. If I’m badly wrong, the 1st year is still minimal, the 2nd year is painful but hardly unprecedented, and you can get out in year 3 with a moderate hit. Either way, it’s no more risky than a typical Top 5 QB pick—especially because a Top 5 QB miss also wastes a premium draft pick. The argument that if he was so good he would have been the starter in GB really doesn’t hold up. When Willis got to GB, they already had a 1st-round QB they gave three years to develop. Love then put up a 96.1 passer rating in his first year as a starter, including a playoff win followed by a narrow 3-point playoff loss. The Packers moved on from Rodgers—who had won MVP in 2 of the previous 3 seasons—specifically because of their commitment to Love. Then in July 2024 they extended Love for 4 yrs, $220M. Willis was acquired in late August 2024, two months after that massive extension and right before the season. If you think Willis should have beaten Love out at that point, you are either a moron or a troll. There is no world where an NFL team gives up on a QB in that situation absent major injury. It’s never happened and never will. The small data set makes it risky, but it’s also what makes Willis obtainable on something less than a record-breaking contract. If he had put up similar efficiency metrics over a large sample size, it would be the greatest QB performance in NFL history by a wide margin and he would be getting a record-breaking contract. The small sample size is what makes him potentially a huge bargain. I don’t think he’ll get as big a deal as Darnold. The differences are substantial: (1) Darnold was a former No. 3 overall pick; (2) he played an entire 2024 season, not just a few games; (3) he played extremely well and made the Pro Bowl; (4) his team went 14-3; (5) he had 73 NFL starts when Seattle signed him, not 6. Those factors matter in contract decisions. I’d say there is a 99.99% chance the Dolphins discussed the QB position with Sullivan before hiring him. I’d guess there is a 90%+ chance Willis—who played for Sullivan’s team and is a pending FA—came up. The Dolphins hired Sullivan knowing it could cost them Harbaugh. It is extremely unlikely Sullivan told them Willis isn’t starter-caliber and the plan is to “pray” for a QB to fall in the draft or in 2027. Could it happen? Sure. But people claiming “Miami won’t pursue Willis” are basing that on nothing. If the Dolphins sign him it will be because the HC and OC have a vision for him and think he’s a fit—or will build around him. But Willis has no physical limitations that make him a bad fit for any system. Heavy RPO? Perfect. Shanahan/McDaniel? His quick release is ideal. Zampese/Turner? More than enough arm. Run and Shoot? Fine. Even some extreme old-school run-heavy stuff? He could do it. If for some weird reason an OC wanted to run a 1960s-70s Oklahoma wishbone option system he could do it; indeed, he might be better suited for it than any other QB in the NFL. But that’s neither here nor there. Some QBs aren’t physically suited to certain offenses; Willis doesn’t have that problem. The existing offensive personnel here was acquired for a Shanahan/McDaniel offense. Willis played in a Shanahan-derived offense in GB and played extremely well, so I’d be inclined to stick with that. Sullivan comes from a team that has invested in that offensive tree. I’d be surprised if the Dolphins hire a HC who demands a major departure from it. LaFleur is staying in GB, but the HC wasn’t the guy working the most with the backup QB. If Hafley is the guy here (which I am lukewarm on other than the prospect it helps get Willis) I think there's a pretty good chance he brings with him some of the GB offensive staff that worked with Willis. Bottom line: the physical gifts are undeniable, the performance the last two years is elite, and the small sample size is precisely why he’s obtainable. I don’t expect him to sustain a 130+ rating, 78%+ completion percentage and 0 INT pace over a full season because nobody in history has, but I do expect him to be accurate, explosive, and dangerous with elite arm strength and running ability. If Sullivan thinks the intangibles are there, Miami should show conviction and go get him.
Me too, if there is someone there worth taking and if there's nobody else there that I think will provide more value. Without knowing the HC, OC or system, I don't yet have any thoughts on who that might be.
Good God Fineas, you wrote a book! LOL Willis has played with his limited opportunities…in Green Bay. That offensive scheme fits his skill set and if the Dolphins adopt that offense, sure I’m in but if we were to get him and try to change everything that has made him shine in Green Bay, it’ll end in disaster.
I really just dumped a bunch of things I had written elsewhere into AL to make it one comprehensive post. I think it makes most sense to use a system similar to what he excelled in. I always think that's be best approach and am perplexed by teams that don't do that. But as I said, there's really no kind of system he isn't physically capable of excelling in.
You really took the word comprehensive to heart. Can't read it all because I'm working. I will when I get home. I liked Willis in college, can't say Ive watched him in the NFL. The little I've seen is fine enough for what should be a throw away 2026 season.
Tua could medically retire but I don't believe that will help us out with the cap. Our only hope is a salary renegotiation. Tua needs to go regardless
Ok....I completely agree that Willis should be an option. Option #1 in fact, but the bigger question is...Can we afford him? You can't suggest signing Willis IF Tua is still here. I don't think it's going to be easy getting rid of him. We may be stuck with him in fact and if so, the best we're going to be able to do is draft a guy. I want Willis here and if there was any way we could do it I'd be ecstatic about it, but I don't see it. There's no way we invest in Willis while still being invested in Tua. Willis is going to net a decent contract. This league is starved for quality quarterback play and a number of teams are going to be lining up for him. If Tua wasn't here, we'd have as good a chance as any team to get him, but we won't. This team has shown time and time again that they simply cannot make the right decision when it comes to the quarterback position. The only team worse at doing so in this league is the Cleveland Browns. You can't EVER expect this team to take the right guy. Alf is gonna be our coach Ffs...And I'm willing to bet green money that Tua returns. So frustrated right now with this franchise. Passing on Drew Brees because we had Jay Fkin Fiedler AJ Feely Passing on Aaron Rodgers Daunte Fatpepper over Brees yet again Great write up on Willis tho...I love him as a prospect and if there was ever a low risk/high reward guy to go after, it'd be him. The one realistic option that I do like is Sam Howell. I think we can get him for cheap, and he would be another low risk/high reward guy to take a chance on.
It will cost more against the CAP to get rid of Tua than to keep him. By a lot. Unless they can find a team to take on his 2026 salary and I don't think they will find that. I laid out in a fair amount of detail how to do it with a low cap hit for 2026 -- less cap hit than it would cost to get rid of Tua.
It's generally not viable to renegotiate to lower the cap hit without extending the player and extending cap consequences in future years. In Tua's case it "might" be possible IF he is willing to give up a lot of guaranteed money so that he can be free to choose a new team. Most players don't do that though.
Malik Willis unfortunately is another undersized smurf like Tua. 6' 1" is undersized for the NFL. Is he going to be any more durable or will the QB sneak again be avoided? All multiple SB winners are typically bigger than that.
Tua’s height obviously had nothing to do with any of his injuries. Willis is 6-1, 220 so roughly built like a bell-cow RB. But he will take a small fraction of the hits that a bell-cow RB takes. He’s about the same height as last year’s SB winning QB and MVP. And taller/bigger than SB winners Drew Brees and Russell Wilson. As well as several SB winning QBs from the early days.
No clue what may be in Tua's mind at this point. Whatever happens with him, it better result his removal from the team. Quitters cannot be allowed to remain here in 2026. I hate talking Tua. Willis might bring the energy this team needs from the QB position.
I'll confess and apologize at the same time. I didn't completely read your post. I just stuck with the overall idea of Willis which I'm all for. If there's a way to get rid of Tua and add Willis this off-season, I'm going to be back, fully invested again.
