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Draft-Need vs Value?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by MaddMatt, Feb 17, 2010.

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  1. MaddMatt

    MaddMatt New Member

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    In the past couple of drafts, we have been able to address both, with no questions asked. This was easy, as we needed everything.

    Now, it's a bit different, and something worth thinking about.

    We all know our needs, and there are a number of them. However, let's look at Spiller. He appears to be the real deal. He is a game breaker running, catching, and returning. He is a HOME RUN threat every time he touches the ball.

    One can look back to Minne, when they had many needs, picking some guy named Adrian.

    Is he worth consideration?
     
  2. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    Peterson was a once in a generation type back ... and i had hoped that we would have drafted him - if he had lasted, even with RB in the fold.

    Is Spillar that good .... i don't believe so - and i don't believe this regime values RBs enough to invest that much into them. RB is unique in his value to this offense at this time .... however, as time goes by - that value is diminished with our capacity to run a more 'conventional' attacking style offense.
     
  3. late again

    late again Senior Member

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    Yeah I'm not sure that Spiller is any where near as talented that AP is/was. That said, I would be fine with taking Spiller provided we've already adequately addressed other positions going into the draft.
     
  4. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO going by need will result in having a less talented team. The best approach is to draft BPAs at core positions. Then you use non-premium picks to fill in the non-core positions. Sometimes you have no option, like when we took Brown. It was just a poor draft and he was the BPA, so he was the choice even though it wasn't a core position.

    As for Spiller, I really like him. I think he could be special so I think he is worth considering. However, I have him down the list a bit behind the core position players at areas of need (WR, NT, OLB, FS (not everybody agrees that FS is a core position)).
     
    late again likes this.
  5. MaddMatt

    MaddMatt New Member

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    FS is worth mentioning. I have seen some drafts where Berry dropped down below us. He is another well worthy of consideration.

    I am confused. You open against need, and close for it. ???
     
  6. late again

    late again Senior Member

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    In essence I agree.
    Myself I couldn't care less about the labels and symantics. For me the important thing is we have a huge need at that position, rafael. Our defense last year without meaning to, in effect put our two rookie CBs out on the island because neither our safeties nor LBs could help at all. I've read around here complaints that Smith and Davis were bad even when compared to other rookie CB seasons. But c'mon; these guys had virtually no help - they were pretty much on their own most every play.
    So whether it's called a core position or just a position of high importance or whatever.....FS has to be a high priority for us this offseason.
     
  7. Whitedolphin54

    Whitedolphin54 From the land of legends Luxury Box

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    The Great Blue North has us drafting him in their projected picks

    http://www.gbnreport.com/2010projection.html
     
  8. late again

    late again Senior Member

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    No he is saying you draft BPA at Core Positions. Not just BPA
     
  9. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I saw a draft today that had Berry going at #3 but questioned whether a S should go that high. Some people just don't see it as a core position.

    Now I'm confused. I'm not sure what you're asking. What I'm saying is that it matters whether you're picking a core position or not. Those positions have more impact unless the player at a non-core position is just so special that he has more impact than the position usually provides. So your premium picks should be used on core positions unless the player is special.

    Spiller may be special, I'm not sure. I have him in that same class as McClain. McClain plays a non-core position but might still be a good pick if he's special (like Willis). However, I don't rate McClain that highly. Spiller may well be the next MJD or even a MJD/Harvin hybrid. I'm more up in the air on him though.
     
  10. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    It's not just a labeling thing though. It's about impact. Not all positions have the same impact. To use an extreme example, if you have the 10th best kicker you're not really that much better off compared to having the 20th best kicker, so it wouldn't make sense to pay a ton to make that upgrade.

    With ILBs, most are on the field for only two downs. Their impact is limited. That's why the Dolphins passed on Maleuaga last year. So while it's clear we need an upgrade at ILB, it doesn't make sense to spend a 1st round pick to get roughly the same impact you could get from a later pick. So the question is does McClain provide elite impact? If he's just a good ILB then it would make more sense to get nearly the same impact in a mid-level FA or later pick and use our first to draft a core, impact position.
     
  11. late again

    late again Senior Member

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    Good logic rafael.
    I guess to a certain degree I'm of the opinion that labels like "core position" need to be, in some cases less cut and dried. For instance, you mention some will define FS as a "core position" while some won't. Yet with us it's absolutely a position of major impact. It may be with other teams not as much due to more experience, but having two rookie CBs we NEEDED for that position to be solid and it wasn't.
    On the other hand, if "core position" is primarily defined by impact, wouldn't that in turn mean that any position could be defined as such? It would just depend upon how you've built your team and whether or not you have an elite player at said position.
    The Titans, for instance. QB is considered a core position yet RB, not? Chris Johnson had a much bigger impact on that team than Young did.
    Don't know.....just some of my musings.
     
  12. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    draft value. fill needs in freeagency.
     
  13. sergiomiguel2

    sergiomiguel2 New Member

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    If C.J. Spiller is there, and we have no one rated above him
    TAKE HIM IN A HEART BEAT
    he will be a great playmaker in the NFL, and played for an underachieving Clemson team that he basically was the team..and they play in the ACC, thats quality opponents week in an out, unlike some other conferences...uh uh...pac-10...uh uh

    Unless we really value a DT, or probably McLain or Dez Bryant, we take him, and the crazy thing is he might actually be there!!!
    but i have a feeling someone trades up for him, or someone makes him a surprise pick, he really is a rare talent and not much is being said about him!

    good call
     

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