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Dolphins Off-Season Priorities- Passing Offense or Scoring Defense.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Disnardo, Feb 21, 2010.

  1. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Since many Fin fans are speculating, and some have made up their minds, on what areas of concern the team needs to address this year in the draft and FA, I did this little research. Might not mean much but data and stats might have something to do with it...

    In 2009 The Top 10 teams in Passing Yards this year, Nine had Defenses that only Allowed Opponents score at least 21 Points in no more than half their games... All 10 teams also had Winning Seasons (the highest amount of teams in 3 years)... The odd team there was NO which had allowed 11 games with 21 PPG or more that year (winning 9)... NO being the Offensive driven team

    Actually 9 out of the Top 10 made the Post Season...Houston being the #1, failed to show...

    That is the first time that all 10 teams had winning record in the last 3 years. I did not go back any further, not because of any other thing... than time... but I will check on that later, probably will look back to 2000...

    Anyways, lets continue...

    In 2008, only 5 Teams in the Top 10 in Passing Yards had a Winning Record and made the Play Offs. Only 2 teams (Arizona and Phily), made it to the Conference Finals. What seemed out of the Norm, is that Arizona's Defense that year, had given up 13 games of at least 21 PPG, the worst Defense of the Top 10 teams... Offensive driven team took them to the SB...but Defense minded Pittsburgh won the game... ironically it was the Defense at the end that let Arizona loose the game...

    In 2007, again, only 5 of the TOP 10 Teams in Passing Yards, had a Winning Record and made the Post Season. Only 2 teams made the Conference Finals (NE and GB). NE went to the SB and was beaten by a Defensive minded team (Giants)...

    Yes, it is nice to score 30 points per game and have an Offense that can soar through the air with ease... but when games counts and Championships are to be won, it is a Game Changing Defense that helps you win it...

    If not ask the QBs that lost the last 3 SB's...

    Edited to add stats...

    In 2006, only 4 out of the TOP 10 Teams in Passing had winning records an made the Post Season. All 4 teams averaged 10 games (55%) with their D allowing at least 21 PPG... Only 2 made the Conference Finals with Indi advancing and winning the SB...

    On a side note, Indi's D had a poor Season but only allowed more than 10 points once in the Post Season, that being the NE game... In the SB, the D only allowed 10 out of the 17 points scored... Again the Defensive side of the ball helped Peyton achive successs...

    EDITED- Please see Post 10... for continuation...
     
  2. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Quality work as usual 'Nardo.

    There is one factor that is normally missed by those who believe "a Elite passing game is the best route to a Championship".

    The teams that go on runs like the Colts and Cardinals have defenses that play better in the playoffs than they do in the regular season.

    The Colts D in 07 was garbage in the regular season, but in the playoffs they were a much much better unit, ditto the 09 Cardinals.

    If you don't mind 'Nardo, take a look at that and see if it bares out.
     
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  3. LikeUntoGod

    LikeUntoGod Season Ticket Holder

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    You have to be able to stop other teams from scoring. Teams that rely on shoot outs can lose the same way. It reminds me of the NBA sometimes. But even in the NBA the teams that play the best defense will win more often.
     
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  4. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks Padre...

    In 2009 Post Season the Cards D allowed an avg of 41 PPG... Don't think that is considered good... except for Dansby TD by INT to win the GB game...

    Completely opposite Indi's was the Cards in 2009... Now Indi in 2006 (not 2007) allowed 10 games (63%) of at least 21 points, and only allowed over 10 points in the SB run once in 4 Post Season games (25%)...

    I don't know if many who factor the Elite Passing teams are missing other factors as you quoted... I think that they understand that Defense is important, but it seems that some think that you can have a Defense give up 28 points per game as long as your Offense scores (hypothetically) 30 PPG...

    The problem is that if your D does that, that is an average point, and its inconsitantcy can give up 30+ points per game too...

    What I am trying to say is that our D gave up an average 24.4 PPG last year, but we had 5 games we gave up 27, 1 game of 30, 1 game of 31, and 1 of 32 (the NO game)... that equals to 29 PPG on average for 8 games...

    With our Offense averaging 29 PPG (hypothtical) we still have a chance of loosing have the games in the Season... NO scored 31 PPG, but their Defense only allowed 5 games in the Regular Season with 27 points or more... and averged 22 PPG... there was a larger difference gap (+9 Points) the better chances of winning...
     
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  5. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    The 08 postseason Cardinals finished their yr in 09 'Nard.
     
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  6. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agree LUG...

    Shoot outs means that their is a very narrow margin of victory, which can give you an 8-8 season, IMO, as well as a 11-5 Season...

    NO is a prime example of this...Since Brees and HC Payton took over...

    They have been in the TOP 10 in Passing Yards in the last 4 years...

    We all know 2009 scoring 31 PPG and allowing 22 PPG... Record of 13-3...

    but in 2008 they scored 29 PPG and allowed 25 PPG... Record of 8-8... Why??? Could it be that Defense allowing 29+ PPG 7 times???

    In 2007 NO scored only a futile (by someone's standards) 23 Points per game, but their D allowed 24 PPG... Record of 7-9... Why??? Could it be that their D allowed 7 games of over 27+ PPG???

    Ironically that has to be a good coincidence about our teams record this year...

    We scored over 23 PPG and allowed 24, giving up 8 games with 27+ PPG...

    In 2006 NO scored 26 PPG and allowed 20 PPG... Record of 10-6...
    They only allowed 27+ PPG 5 times that year...

    I am not debating that we don't need a true # 1 WR (stud), or a TE that can break the seam and make catches, I would love to have them...but...

    Until we stop the inconsitancy on our D, by continuing to infuse talented players, we will be one and done in the Post Seasons... that is what the Colts did a few years after aquiring Peyton and the Saints have done over the last few years...
     
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  7. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Sorry Padre, I look at the Season instead of the year the teams are in the Post Season...:shifty:

    Anyways you are right about them in 2008, their D allowed 26+ PPG in the season, but only allowed 22 PGG avg in the Post Season... though they did allow 3 games of 20+ PPG...
     
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  8. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I have a couple of comments:

    First, total yards is really poorly correlated to winning. The stat is often polluted by poor teams racking up yards late when they are behind. YPA is much more correlated and IMO is much more indicative of what a good passing offense is.

    Second, I believe that it is much easier to play defense when you know the other team has to pass. In those situations you end up with more turnovers and better scoring defense. So better scoring defense is often the result of a passing offense that is efficient (YPA over 7.0).
     
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  9. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    And i'd bet that the points were allowed AFTER the Defenses team had jumped out to a lead, meaning they were trading points for time.
     
  10. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    TOP 10 Offenses in YPA are similar to Total Passing Yards in those years covered from 2006-2009... Correlation to Winning teams????

    Let's check...

    2009- Houston (9-7), Indi (14-2), NE (10-6), NO (13-3), SD (13-3), Dallas (11-5), GB (11-5), Minny (12-4), Pit (9-7), and Phily (11-5) round the TOP 10 In YPA... 9 (90%) of the teams made the Post Season...

    Looks good to me, Houston had a winning season, missed the PS...

    2008- SD (8-8), Houston (8-8), NO (8-8), Carolina (12-4), Altanta (11-5), Arizona (9-7), Miami (11-5), GB (6-10), Denver (8-8), and SF (7-9) round the TOP 10... Only 4 (40%) of the TOP 10 YPA teams made the PS...

    Alot of 8-8 teams there as well as a 6-10 team... Correlation is definitely not there...

    2007- NE (16-0), Dallas (13-3), Pit (10-6), GB (13-3), Indi (13-3), Jax (11-5), Houston (8-8), TB (9-7), Denver (7-9), and Cinci (7-9) round the TOP 10... 7 (70%) of the TOP 10 YPA teams made the PS......

    There were 3 teams that did not have a winning record, but it does show slight correlation...

    2006- Dallas (9-7), NO (10-6), Phily (10-6), Indi (12-4), Cincy (8-8), Pit (8-8), SD (14-2), STl (8-8), KC (9-7), and Arizona (5-11) round the TOP 10 YPA teams... 6 (60%) teams made the PS...

    You cannot miss that 4 teams did not have a winning record, not much in correlation...

    Combined over the last 4 years of TOP 10 YPA teams...

    26 (65%) teams out of 40 made the Post Season...

    27 (68%) teams out of 40 had a Winning Record...

    So how do you count for the other 13 (32%) or 3 teams a year on average that has not had a "Winning Season," but has made the TOP 10 teams in YPA???

    Now take away 2009 and we have the following...

    17 (57%) teams out of 30 in 3 years had a winning record... That leaves 13 (43%) teams without a winning record... why???

    High YPA does not correlate effectively to winning, by itself, IMHO... the above data doesn't prove an effecient correlation...

    ....but when it is used together with a good scoring Defense it makes a world of difference...
     
  11. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    You're right about it not correlating by itself. I should have pointed out that the factor that often accounts for the difference is turnover differential. But that seems to have a large luck component. I do think that turnovers are more likely when you know the other team has to pass.

    Here is a link that does an interesting analysis on what makes teams win:

    http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/07/what-makes-teams-win-part-1.html

    It's from 2007, but IMO it's still informative. They found that YPA had a .61 correlation to winning while pass yards had a .31 correlation.

    Win Correlation
    Pass Yards 0.31
    Pass Attempts -0.17
    Pass Yds/Att 0.61
     
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  12. krypto

    krypto Banned

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    Wow, I have been saying this since I joined this forum. Everyone kept bashing Sparano/Parecells for being a run-first team but didn't anyone notice we had no problem scoring? Our problem was we couldn't stop our opponents from scoring.
     
  13. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks for the site Rafael... great reading and it does bare understanding...

    On TO's (not Terrell Owens), it might "NOT" be a luck type occurence, but one that is brought on by talented and intelligent Defensive Coaches and players (DB's, DL's, and LB's)...

    They seem to watch game-films and look for the specific situtation in which they get a feel and know how as to where the passes are going to...

    You hear these mentioned after game changing INT's, like in the last SB, I mean teams do prepare well when they have talented coaches and players...

    How many times have you seen our LB, CB's and Safeties bite on pumps and play action passes... they might have been taught not to look into the backfield, but they either are to slow to react (talent/intelligence) and correct themselves or they are lost in what they need to do and lack the ability to comprehend...

    I tend to believe that it must be the first part of the problem, but then again there are not 1,300 Pro-Bowlers every year... mostly the talented, and intelligent ones are usually elected...
     
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  14. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I don't want to imply that talent doesn't play a factor. It's just that turnovers tend to fluctuate even among good teams from year to year even when they don't have much of a change in personnel or coaching. My inclination would be to attribute that getting or not getting the bounces.
     
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  15. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well I went to check out the last 4 years in the TOP 10 Defenses on TO's especially on INTs @ ESPN.COM...

    Link: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?offensiveStatisticCategory=null&archive=true&seasonType=REG&defensiveStatisticCategory=SACKS&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&d-447263-s=DEFENSIVE_INTERCEPTIONS&d-447263-n=1&season=2006&qualified=true&Submit=Go&tabSeq=2&role=OPP&d-447263-p=1

    Here is what I found...from 2006-2009 (4 years)...

    Green Bay- (09, #1), (08, #4), (07, #8), and (06, #3), four years running...
    Eagles- (09, #4), and (06, #9)...
    Ravens- (09, #6), (08, #1), (06, #1)...
    Arizona- (09, #7), and (07, #10)...
    Titans- (09, #8), (08, #6), and (07, #3)...
    Bengals- (09, #9), (07, #6), and (06, #8)...
    Tampa- (09, #10), and (08, #5)...
    Cleveland- (08, #2), and (06, #10)...
    Chicago- (08, #3), and (06, #2)...
    Steelers- (08, #7), and (06, #7)...
    Jaguars- (07, #4), and (06, #6)...
    NE- (07, #9), and (06, #4)...

    Now here are 12 Defenses who have made it to the TOP 10 in Interceptions in at least two of the last four years...

    4 (40%) of them have made it at least 3 out of the last 4 years...

    One of them has made it 4 in a row...

    Maybe it bares further evaluation...
     
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  16. dolfan7171

    dolfan7171 Well-Known Member

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    You guys are obviously talented. That was some good information there. Great job guys!!
     
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