I saw this on the Phinsider site and thought it would be a good discussion. So I want to give it shot. Here is the link: http://www.thephinsider.com/2010/3/14/1373200/reason-not-to-draft-a-nt-at-12#storyjump
RickyC....great logic. How about reasons why they might draft a NT.... 1) Bill believes that the 3/4 D success starts with the NT. 2) Soliai, who has improved, hasn't solidified his ability as a starter yet. 3) There are quite a few decent NT's in this draft. 4) Pat Williams and Jared Odrick should both be available at #12. 5) Now unless someone does not throw the top 10 out of whack (which seems to happen every year anyway), this pick could go any way... 6) On the other hand, in this years' draft there looks to be 8-10 guys that are 'can't miss' versus the usual 3-4 guys. 7) Most importantly, there doesn't seem to be many of the DE/OLB conversion guys or pure OLBers available that are worth the #12 pick. The next most important position in this regimes' eyes, after OLB is NT.... I just see a lot of reasons why they'll go NT at #12. It's not a lock, there could be several other options, as I said because there is always a trade or an Oakland that pulls a bonehead out of the top ten... I'm not totally convinced that NT is the direction they'll go. We have a plethora of needs...NT is one of them. But if they aren't sure, they tend to "runs home to momma" to use a movie line, and draft where they feel comfortable in drafting. NT and OLB are prime positions for this regime. There is a dearth of DE/OLB guys in this draft...next up is NT...JMO...
As deep as this draft is, and with Ferguson coming back for the last half of the year, I find it hard to believe that NT is our #1 pick unless by some miracle of god Suh or McCoy falls to us (super improbable). Then again, the fact that they haven't bitten at Brandon Marshall, or Antoine Bethea (or at least that we haven't heard about it), does seem to point more towards NT as a probable match.
I'm personally against drafting any of the following positions this early in the draft: NT, ILB, TE, S, C, & G. I would draft an ILB but only if 98.6% sure he was going to be an all-pro.
It's simple: 1.) McCoy will not be there. 2.) Suh will not be there. 3.) There will be 5-10 better prospects on the board than Dan Williams. FOR SURE. If we go DT then we're chasing need over BPA. That is a no no in round one. Besides, we have so many needs right now that likewise BPA will be of a position of need. (i.e. WR Dez Bryant, S Earl Thomas)
The writer for the Phinsider should have known the stats upon which his analysis was based were severely flawed when it identified Soleil as being a better run stopper than Ferguson.
Much of the problems with the run-stopping had to do with Crowder's injury, Soliai tiring out, and shifts in defensive philosophy to counter the pass (which failed by the way). Soliai in the base 3-4 set was fine at NT. He needs a capable backup though. I'm not spending a first on Dan Williams or Cody. **** THAT ****
about NT's: 1) nothing is a sure bet in a draft. no one is a proven commodity coming into the game, a NT is no different in this respect. 2) it usually takes two seasons to prepare a NT to play effectively in the NFL 3) the push up the middle & taking on a double-team @ the scrimmage line are basic & necessary to the position & the reason you need two of them over the course of a game & season to play @ a consistently high level. it is the most brutal & demanding position on the 3-4 defense 4) the NT sets up the linebackers to make big plays. sacks & tackles behind the line of scrimmage are a second concern, the icing on the cake @ NT. in some ways the NT is to the 3-4 defense what the left tackle is to the conventional offense. they are the anchor of their respective systems & w/o quality & consistency @ the position, you lose the battle of the trenches, you lose the war. 5) we will draft one this year. it is a need & priority. need not be concerned about it. they will use one of our top draft choices to secure one 6) would not underestimate the value of Soliai. he made his bones this season & is walking onto the field an experienced & prepared NT. he has all the tools & intangibles to be great. 7) Ferguson will help in the rookie development of the position & enter the fray in the critical second half of the season, allowing the "new guy", whoever he is, time to learn & develop.
if we agree that we absolutely have to draft a NT then IMO we have to use our first or 2nd rounder. Williams, Thomas and Cody are really the only options we have. I know there are others like Troup or Oghobeese but the reality is if you want a guy who can contribute his first year out then you have to spend a 1st or 2nd. Which makes the drafting of a FS or WR seem impossible with our first to me. I just cant see this FO waiting in year three till the 3rd round to draft a pass rushing linebacker. George Selvie? Greg Hardy? I think the first two picks have to be NT and OLB though the order is up in the air