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Atlanta Braves 2010 thread

Discussion in 'Other Sports Forum' started by charlestonphan, Feb 10, 2010.

  1. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    FoxSportSouth is reporting that Jason Heyward will be the starting rightfielder on opening day. Not that that's some huge surprise.
     
  2. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    No brainer...I am excited to watch him. This piece is really good, and should temper some expectations.
     
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  3. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    I'm a little surprised they have his average that low. He hasn't hit below .300 (probably higher) at any level in the Minors.

    My guess is he finishes in the .290-.300 range with 25 homers and around 80-90 RBI.

    Baseball Prospectus is probably closest though. His OPS and OBP are too low IMO. He's always been great in those two categories.
     
  4. Mainge

    Mainge Season Ticket Holder

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    I don't think it's unreasonable to expect him to hit around .270. He's only 20 years old. I'd be surprised if he hits 25 homeruns though. 15-18 is probably more realistic.
     
  5. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    I agree. I think the Braves would do back flips if he hit .270 as a 20 year old rookie. The kid has a lot of talent and will probably be a superstar one day but he is going to be playing in the majors now.
     
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  6. Skeet84

    Skeet84 New Member

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    I dont think its a matter of if he will be a superstar rather when will he be a superstar. I do agree that .270 is about right however i think he hits alittle over 20 hrs
     
  7. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    I've seen the kid play and really like what I see but I think people need to relax a little bit with expectations of him. It was only a few years ago that people were calling Alex Gordon the next George Brett and now look at him, on the flip side everyone wanted to get rid of Dustin Pedroia and he's a top player in the league, granted neither Gordon or Pedroia have Heyward's talent. I just think the fans and the Braves especially are putting a lot on this kid when he's extremely young and barely has 1000 at bats in the minor leagues. I personally think he's going to be good but don't expect him to be a superstar in year 1, just look at Justin Upton who has similar talent and abilities and it took him 3 years before everything clicked and he broke out.
     
  8. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Exactly.....Braves fans need to read, and re-read this over and over....he is 20, and historically, he would enter very, very, very rare air this season if all goes well. But lets temper expectations.

     
  9. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    I'm just excited to have a real power threat in the lineup. That will be nice for the future, they haven't had good power in the lineup for some time. This should help them close the gap with Philly.
     
  10. Mainge

    Mainge Season Ticket Holder

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    I don't think Heyward is exactly that power threat.
     
  11. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Stories like this crack me up...they just have to Hollywoodize a prospect and heap this MYSTICAL praise and backstory, ala The Natural, etc:

    How did the Braves land Jason Heyward? By sending their scout into a forest to spy on him.
    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_y...LYF?slug=jp-heyward032810&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
     
  12. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    Yeah I read that over the weekend, I think it's funny because that strategy was used by Billy Beane in the 2002(?) draft where he loved Nick Swisher but didn't want any of the other clubs to know it, so he didn't send a scout to any of his games. However once the other scouts realized there were no A's scouts, they all figured the A's really wanted Swisher that's why they were saying away from him. In fact I think it was either Kenny Williams or Steve Phillips that called Beane out on it. Makes you wish you were a fly on the wall in some of these front offices to see what really goes on and the thinking behind things.
     
  13. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    That's an interesting story but yeah, let's let the kid play an inning of actual major league baseball before we decide he's the newest MLB phenom.
     
  14. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    The thing with Heyward is that he doesn't strike out a lot. When you don't strike out, you are making contact. When you make contact, you have a chance to have a good batting average. I think .270 is a low ball number that is probably assuming that he's going to have a higher strike out rate against MLB pitching than he has shown so far in the minors. Think about it though. This is a guy who had only 5 more strike outs than extra base hits last season and has a 1:1 SO:BB ratio.
     
  15. charlestonphan

    charlestonphan Junior Member

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    a "Hard Knocks" for baseball would make a great reality show, IMHO. and/or one centered around the front office of an MLB team would be really interesting as well.
     
  16. charlestonphan

    charlestonphan Junior Member

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    totally agree on the expectations for Heyward. lets give him a year or three before we start expecting too much, or conversely, start writing him off if things don't go perfectly this season.

    i think the Braves offensive fortunes, and thus the team's chances at the playoffs depend much more heavily on Glaus and Chipper's ability to stay health AND return to form.

    if those two guys are not in the lineup alot and contributing, Heyward could end up being the rookie of the year and Atlanta still won't make the playoffs.
     
  17. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    The MLB Network is actually filming something similar like that with the Chicago White Sox. Camera crews have been following around Kenny Williams and company since the start of ST and I believe it's going to start to air in July. Should be interesting to see especially since Kenny loves the camera and can talk up a storm.
     
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  18. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Everybody gets one prediction mulligan a season. You've already used yours.
     
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  19. Kanye West

    Kanye West 'Parcells' Guy

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    I guess Jason Heyward is okay.
     
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  20. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    BTW, Nate McLouth is still one of the worst defensive CF'ers in the league. THE NUMBERS PROVE THIS!

    EDIT: Thanks Ump, you owed us one.
     
  21. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    Oh geez we're starting this up again? :lol: One diving play (which he dropped no less) doesn't prove he's a good defensive outfielder, also a player making a diving catch doesn't automatically mean he's a good defender, I'm sure Jason Giambi or Cecil Fielder made some diving catches in their days too.

    And yes you're correct, the numbers do in fact prove he's not a good defensive outfielder and those are the same numbers that smart MLB front offices use to determine player's defensive value.
     
  22. charlestonphan

    charlestonphan Junior Member

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    alright, if the Braves can keep this up, we'll be hard to beat. unless y'all think 16 runs per game is unsustainable? :shifty:
     
  23. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    lol you're never living that down until you admit he's a good CF'er, metrics or not. (the same metrics that show Torii Hunter is an even WORSE CF'er.)

    And yes, font offices use them in ADDITION to, you know, actually watching the guys play :wink2:
     
  24. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    There is no metric that can be put on defense. You have to base it on what you see.
     
  25. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    I'm not going to admit something that just isn't true. I believe last year I posted 4 or 5 defensive websites that all listed McLouth as a well below average defensive outfield and addition to that I also posted numerous scouts' scouting reports all saying McLouth was a poor defender. It seems like you're the only one who thinks he is a good OFer, so maybe you should start reading into these defensive stats you simply bush off because you've seen McLouth play in all of 85 games or so with Atlanta. Unless you want to show me any proof that he is a good OFer besides what your eyes tell you, which is completely subjective, I'd be all for it. So here's your shot to prove me wrong, convince me he's not with evidence.

    And you're incorrect about Torii Hunter having worse stats than McLouth, so you might want to check them again because that's a false statement as well. And yes Hunter has had declining fielding stats since 2005, the year he happened to break his ankle and had metal plates and screws inserted into his leg so I'm sure that has something to do with the decline in numbers since then.

    Complete bull. That's just something people say that don't take the time to do some research on the subject, and/or don't fully understand them, because there are good defensive metrics you can use that show which guys are good defenders or not.

    If you don't believe that then I guess GM's like Theo Epstein, Jack Zduriencik, Billy Beane and Brian Cashman for example don't know what they're talking about.
     
  26. Mainge

    Mainge Season Ticket Holder

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    :lol:

    That was a bomb, but it's a long season. :wink2:

    I'd be super jealous if we didn't have our own stud right fielder in the waiting. Brave or not, it's hard not to love the kid.
     
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  27. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    We'll (finally) agree to disagree then. I don't know what evidence I can post if you've seen the guy play and think he isn't any good. If you watch him and really think "wow, this guy is horrible." then you and I are watching completely different things.

    If you posted a scouting report, that would be one thing. Up until now, you're reasoning was "the numbers say he sucks", which is subjective. In fact, I'd say it's even more subjective than watching someone, but that's just me.

    EDIT: FWIW:

     
  28. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    Well then I guess you can't say that Babe Ruth, Willie Mays or Ted Williams weren't good baseball players since you've never seen them play. I mean we can't go by the numbers right since they're subjective? I mean it is possible that even if someone watches a lot of baseball they might not actually be knowledgble about the sport or can be a good judge of talent (I'm not saying you, I'm just saying in general). That's where the eyes can be wrong.

    Look I understand that some people don't want to believe these new stats actually are useful and good, especially since it's something completely new but if you take the time to read up on it, I think you'd have a better understanding of how they work and in the process have better baseball knowledge. I do also think you need to have a nice balance of going out and watching the guy play as well as looking at the numbers. I'm not sure that, for the average fan, just watching the guy on TV will do him true justice since TV won't always pick up bad jumps/bad routes to the ball. Case in point last year Jacoby Ellsbury looked like a gold glove CFer to the naked eye but people that saw him play everyday and know what to look for know he took bad routes to the ball and got late starts on balls (which was actually reflected in his defensive numbers), some of the balls he ended up getting too and making 'web gems' because of his speed but others he completely botched.

    As for the scouting reports, it's somewhere in the last Braves thread all my links I posted, I believe I included posts done by the Fielding Bible, Fangraphs and baseballreference, since those are the majority of the websites I go to when looking up defensive numbers. As well as comments by MLB scouts (Keith Law & Jason Grey) both saying he's a bad OFer. I trust their opinions along with the numbers a lot more since they're experts in the field. And if I remember correctly I think your argument that McLouth was a good OFer was because he had a good fielding %, which is as useless a stat as batting average or pitcher W/L nowadays.

    Seriously though if you have time, try to read up on this stuff. It is really interesting and with the way baseball is going in terms of how teams are starting to be run with the front offices, these stats will be important in a few years.

    EDIT: Just saw you posted McLouth's 2009 UZR, that's good it was no longer in the negative range so maybe he really is improving or maybe him missing that time with injuries reflected in his numbers. I guess 2010 will tell us more.
     
  29. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Fair enough, but I'm not discounting all metrics entirely. I've never said they are useless, or aren't helpful to scouts and GM's. Hell, I use stats all the time, and always have. In fact, Nate McLouths defensive stats are really the ONLY stats I've ever taken exception with. I won't argue he didn't deserve a GG. I won't even argue that he's an elite CF'er, because he's not. I watched Andruw Jones for enough years to know what an elite CF'er looks like.

    After watching him play in Pittsburgh (that sounds sad, but I did) and then watching him play in Atlanta, I knew there was more to it. My honest analysis of him then and now, is that he's an average-to-below average arm, with average-to-abover average range. He didn't always take the best routes to balls in Pitt (maybe it was the stadium?) but seems to have improved that in Atlanta.

    Also, his road/home defensive splits were pretty comprable last year. He also makes the smart play. You won't see him let balls hit off the fence to allow an extra base, and although his arm isn't great, he's pretty accurate.

    I'm not a stat hater, as I said, but people like myself who played the game at a high level (if College is considered "High Level" lol), it's annoying when people dismiss a guy or base their opinion on a player on stats alone. You said you played, doesn't this irk you to some degree? That's my only beef, really.
     
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  30. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    It actually doesn't really bother me. I've played baseball with guys that have been drafted by MLB teams that didn't know what an infield fly was or half of the most common baseball rules and I know guys that have never even played above little league that are pretty knowledgble about the sport. Just look at guys around baseball, Joe Morgan who is a HOFer and one of the best 2B ever when you listen to him talk about the game on the broadcasts he sounds clueless and lost, on the flip side you have someone like Theo Epstein who never played baseball past high school, if that, and he's one of the smartest guys in the game. I think you really have to take it as a case by case basis. It annoys me much more when people just totally dismiss stats without giving it the time of day or taking the time to sit down and see what they're about first, especially with older newspaper writers since they've been around forever and don't want to adapt to the change in the game.

    As for the rest of the post, I respect your opinions and if you feel that way that's fine. Your response, in my opinion, was pretty good obviously not everyone sees or agrees with things all the time. I do however feel bad for you that you watch so many Pirate games.
     
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  31. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    lol. I've had Extra Innings and/or MLB TV for years. I try to watch as much baseball as possible, although having a daughter last year will cut into that I'm sure.
     
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  32. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    I'm sure it will cut into baseball time.

    Good debate though, HK, I do look forward to them as you don't back down and I do consider you to have good baseball knowledge, so it is a challenge.

    Now if only I could get Boik to see the light on the whole Francoeur thing my work here would be done.
     
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  33. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    and if you could learn to like a better team then the rad sax
     
  34. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    We agree on that one :lol:
     
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  35. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    (Insert witty response since I can't honestly think of a good one at the moment). Boom roasted.
     
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  36. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    That's what statheads do. They base their opinion of a player on stats alone and never actually watch the player play.

    Like these so called defensive metrics. These defensive metrics make guys like Nick Swisher look like passable defenders when they are in fact horrific defenders.
     
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  37. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    Oops. It's only one game but us Braves fans weren't the only ones sold. Baseball tonight yesterday did a short segment comparing Pujols' swing to some other 'power' hitters. They used Ryan Howard and I'll give you one guess which young up and comer they decided to also use. :up:
     
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  38. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    Exactly which stats make Swisher look like a passable defender? All his numbers are pretty below average. I've seen Swisher play a lot in the past few years and while he's not good (he gets horrible jumps on balls and takes terrible routes), he's not a statue out there either.
     
  39. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    That was a pretty good game last night. Billy Wagner got his first save as a Brave. It was good to see some power out of Chipper.
     
  40. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Very nice. Also, that Double by Heyward was officially the hardest hit ball I've ever seen.
     

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