1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Interesting Tidbits from Football Outsiders Almanac

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Rhody Phins Fan, Jul 29, 2010.

  1. Rhody Phins Fan

    Rhody Phins Fan Well-Known Member

    4,348
    1,436
    113
    Jan 14, 2009
    I just got my copy of Football Outsiders Almanac and it's got some good stuff in it. Here are some things that I found interesting in the Miami chapter.


    • [*]Wildcat with Ronnie or Ricky taking snap averaged 4.9 yards per play and a 20.0% DVOA (DVOA is their stat that basically measures the quality of each play in context. 20% is good)


      [*]Plays with Pat White taking snaps averaged 2.8 yards per play with a -23.9% DVOA


      [*]Miami uses extra blockers to protect the quarterback more than any other team


      [*]Miami also used more max protect than any in the league for the second year in a row


      [*]Miami quarterbacks were hurried on just 12% of plays, the lowest in the league.


      [*]In terms of yards after catch Miami was the second worst team on both offense and defense. They gave up 6.6 yards after catch and gained only 4.1 yards themselves.


      [*]Miami was also the best defense in the league in defending 4 and 5 wide receiver sets although Miami faced fewer of these sets than every other team except Atlanta.


      [*]According to their numbers we had the best run blocking in the league and were second best at "power" runs but were near the bottom of the league in 2nd level blocking.

      [*]Their mean projection is 9.2 wins and says that we have a 22% chance of 7-8 wins, 41% for 9-10 wins, and 26% chance of 11+ wins.
     
  2. FinsAreLife

    FinsAreLife Well-Known Member

    2,824
    762
    113
    Dec 7, 2007

    Quality post in my opinion. Im a huge stat guy so all of this info is very intriguing to me. I especially find the 2nd level blocking bullet interesting. Imagine if that was just slightly improved this season how well ricky and ronnie would do.
     
    finyank13, Larryfinfan and dolfan7171 like this.
  3. shaunm000

    shaunm000 Well-Known Member

    747
    649
    93
    Nov 25, 2007
    Oviedo
    9-7 will win the AFC East this year. Tough division with tough schedules. I will take that.
     
  4. Rhody Phins Fan

    Rhody Phins Fan Well-Known Member

    4,348
    1,436
    113
    Jan 14, 2009
    I was surprised at how they projected us for. Last year we had the 3rd hardest schedule according to them and this year we are projected to have the 18th hardest, which will certainly be helpful.
     
    dolfan7171 likes this.
  5. m ino

    m ino New Member

    1,142
    441
    0
    Jul 20, 2008
    thanks for the read.i would love to see us hold that 12% qb hurries while not in max protect all the time.hopefully with the addittions to the line this year we won't need both our t.e's staying in to block on every down(i reallize our t.e's did go out for passes but most were short dump off's to avoid pressure imo).did being in the wildcat contribute to our max protect numbers?it would seem so as we usually only had one reciever with the back on the other side going in motion but im not extremely knowledgable on the schemes.
     
    dolfan7171 likes this.
  6. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

    13,057
    8,875
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Hamilton, Ontario Canada
    And this is why I think Fasano gets a bad rap. The guy is a very good blocker and the team is making a lot of use of that. We also have an OC that doesn't use the TE's as much in the passing game.
     
    dolfan7171, GMJohnson and Larryfinfan like this.
  7. dolfan7171

    dolfan7171 Well-Known Member

    18,065
    3,629
    113
    Jun 12, 2009
    Arizona
    That is some good stuff. Thanks for posting.
     
  8. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    numbers are always revealing & quietly interesting
     
    dolfan7171 and anlgp like this.
  9. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    That'll change with Hartline getting more playing time and Marshall in the mix.
     
    dolfan7171 likes this.
  10. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    I guess that I'm not as big on stats because they can be used, in a lot of cases, to prove a point rather than standing on their own as entities. Seems if you want to win an argument, you can use stats to do just that, but the guy you're arguing with can use virtually the same stats to counter your point...

    However, a great post, as usual Roddy...I just am leary about using stats to gauge what may happen this coming season....the O was built around Penny last season even tho he didn't finish the season, this year it'll be built around Henne. To me, that makes a huge difference...
     
  11. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    I got mine yesterday. I look forward to my Football Outsiders Almanac (used to be called Prospectus) every year. Here's a link: [ame="http://www.amazon.com/Football-Outsiders-Almanac-2010-Essential/dp/1453671188/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1279989316&sr=8-3"]Amazon.com: Football Outsiders Almanac 2010: The Essential Guide to the 2010 NFL and College Football Seasons (9781453671184): Aaron Schatz, Benjamin Alamar, Bill Barnwell, Will Carroll, Bill Connelly, Doug Farrar, Nathan Forster, Brian Fremeau, David Gardner, Tom Gower, Mike Kurtz, Ned Macey, Sean McCormick, Mike Tanier, Vince Verhei: Books[/ame]



    They sum up the 2010 Miami Dolphins as follows: "If you went on a blind date with the Dolphins, the friend setting you up would rave about her "great personality"---Meaning, there are very few "superstars", but we've got the right attitude and coaching to be successful.

    Sounds about right to me!
     
    anlgp likes this.
  12. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    Here's some stats predictions:

    B. Marshall - 77 catches, 884 yards, 6 TDs
    Henne - 305 completions, 3253 yards, 15 TDs, 18 INTs (and since we're all obsessed with the Henne vs. Sanchez debate, they predict Sanchez will have 263 completions, 3096 yards, 18 TDs and 15 INTs)
    Ronnie - 927 yards, 4.3 y/r, 12 TDs
    Ricky - 824 yards, 4.5 y/r, 11 TDs

    So they're really high on Ricky and Ronnie, but think we oughtta expect a lot of INTs from Henne. That actually makes sense if you're using previous stats to predict future success. Henne's INTs were pretty even throughout the season last year.
     
  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Brandon Marshall will help that 2nd level stuff....your oline will always have problems on the 2nd level due to unfair advantages.
     
    dolfan7171 likes this.
  14. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

    27,364
    31,261
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    Numbers don't lie. Sometimes people just make inaccurate assumptions about what they represent or how important they are.

    For example, you can't blame Fasano's decrease in production on the use of max protect since we led the league in max protect for two years. He produced well in one of those years and not in the other. Therefore, there had to be at least one other factor.

    I do think that our standing in yards after catch on both sides of the ball is telling. Big plays have inarguably been shown to be a big factor in wins. Our struggles with YAC are a big part of that. IMO Marshall and the development of Henne and Hartline will be important determinates of whether we improve in that category on the offensive side. On defense, I think it was primarily a scheme problem. So Nolan should be the biggest factor there. The other factors include the development of Davis and Smith, Dansby's impact, and how we solve the FS position.
     
    Anonymous, dolfan7171 and mullingan like this.
  15. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    According to their numbers we had the best run blocking in the league and were second best at "power" runs but were near the bottom of the league in 2nd level blocking.

    I got my copy fresh off the presses and when I saw ^^^ I thought, What a ******ed stat. You can't be a successful run blocking unit without reaching the second level to pick off LBs. It's like saying the OL is the best in pass protection, but they're near the bottom in allowing sacks.

    Granted, there were a lot of cases where our C/G combo blocks were poorly timed/executed, but all of our linemen, with the exception of perhaps Carey (who wasn't asked), did a decent job of getting onto the backers when they were supposed to. And if you watch any line in the league, you'll see them having similar, if not worse, issues.

    Exhibit two, we were ranked 28th in 2L blocking in 2009, 25th in 2008, and in 2007? Wait for it................8th. Or so they say. There's a ton of useful info in the FOA, but the second level blocking stats, skip those.
     
  16. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

    30,718
    5,415
    113
    Jan 6, 2010
    thats if they run the same personel groupings they did last year, I dont see them doing that, I see them opening it up more this year, as they have the ability to do so now...I would be ripped if Marshall only had 884 yards, and 6 tds...
     
  17. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

    9,767
    3,436
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    North of the Border
    I doubt that. I think it will take 10 to win it. But who knows.
     
  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    According to my data, the Oakland Raiders used more TEs and RBs to help pass protect than the Dolphins, as a percentage. I stand by my treatment and summing of the data, but I used PFF's basic observational data in order to do the study so many some of their ground level data was off.

    The funny thing is, when I looked at putting Tight Ends to the left side, next to Jake Long in 2008, versus what the Broncos did with Tight Ends to the left side of Clady, I found that the Dolphins only put a Tight End off Jake's shoulder 141 out of 567 times, and only had that Tight End stay in to pass protect 29 times. The Broncos kept a Tight End off Clady's left shoulder 280+ out of 692 times and had him pass protect a total of 56 plays.

    So the fact that Miami kept a lot of TEs and RBs in to help pass protect is not an indictment of Jake Long.

    What does it mean, then? Well, for one thing, I think it means that our WRs were held to an really high standards especially relative to their talent level. Logically the fewer WRs you have out there releasing in patterns, the less chance one of them will be open. When the sombrero is on one of the WRs as the first read of the play call by virtue of how the offensive play matches up with what the defense is showing, there's enormous pressure for him to get open because there's probably only one or two other options if the first choice is gone.

    For another thing, this suggests that Miami has simplified choices for the QB and tried to give him less responsibility for reading the field after the snap, more responsibility for placing the ball accurately and making a good throw.
     
    finyank13 likes this.
  19. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

    27,364
    31,261
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    That is what I thought those stats indicated. I expect that Marshall will so often draw the focus of the defenses this coming season that Henne's reads will be simplified even if he has more targets available. I think that's a big benefit of bringing in a true #1 WR that won't be credited to Marshall. Sure, some unknown percentage of any improvement will be from Henne's development, so it's impossible to say how much of an effect Marshall actually has, but IMO it is a factor that makes Henne's job easier that shouldn't be ignored.
     
  20. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    I take the usage of max protect that often as a negative overall, why keep that extra Receiver in to block when they could be producing yardage down the field?
     
  21. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    Because you want to protect your QB from any possible blitzes and simplify his reads. Plus your TE's aren't exactly Gates and Gonzalez.
     
  22. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts

    Simplifies things for the Defense as well.
     
  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    It's something you do with a young QB. You would hope that as your QB grows up he doesn't need it as much anymore.
     
  24. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    18th hardest? Lock it up.

    Chaaaaampionship
     

Share This Page