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Look at these numbers.....

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Zod, Sep 27, 2010.

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  1. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    I went the NFL.com to check the statistical comparison of this weeks game versus the Jets/Colts championship. It was Tim Graham's latest article that made me curious.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/AFCEast/post/_/id/18938/

    Here are two quick links to the numbers.

    http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010012400/2009/POST20/jets@colts/recap#tab:analyze

    http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010092614/2010/REG3/jets@dolphins#tab:analyze

    It is freaking scary as to how close they are with a totally different result on the scoreboard. With all the banter that will continue this week about this and that, this little comparison points to one direction - special teams.

    Sparano specifically mentioned special teams today in the press conference as deciding factors. He mentioned the punt block and he was certain not to leave out "and we practiced it" refering to the twist that got the player free.

    I want to direct the mobs attention to the fact that this offense did what only one other team has surpassed in the previous year and this short lived year. The defense held the Jets to eerily similar numbers as the Colts were able to do in January. We should not forget that someone directed those groups and "by the numbers" they did everything that had to do to win.

    But there was another group that was a total failure. That is the group directed by John Bonamego. If in any way this game leads to a "hot seat" it is this guys hot seat. Because all that we have heard is how much these games matter. How a division game is a game and a half. Let there be no doubt about it - John Bonamego's group just lost a game and a half.
     
  2. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I agree Zod, for all the huffing and puffing about Dan Henning, Jon Bonamego's ST unit was just dreadful, it is not that the Jets ST unit is so great, but they were mowing down 2-3-4 sometimes 5 guys on our kick coverage unit.

    Blocked punt
    140 additional yds in returns
    Kick Off out of bounds

    Cobbs and Bess did have decent games as Returners though.
     
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  3. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    Really great point. People get so caught up defending their personal agendas ("Henning is no good", etc) that they fail to recognize the real culprits (special teams in this case).

    That said, I would argue that while the numbers the defense put up yesterday might be similar to what the Colts did, the final result is inexcusable.

    Zero sacks
    Few pressures
    Zero turnovers
    Multiple-drive sustaining penalties

    I think that the defense is equally at fault.

    The only unit that I have no beef with is the offense, which had a fantastic outing against one of the league's better defenses.
     
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  4. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Tomorrow is Termination Tuesday, so far at least one player has been roster moved on the Tuesday after a game.

    The newbie Te Mastrud would figure to be on the roster bubble.

    Erik Walden may be as well.

    And let's not forget, Pat McQuistan left the game last night and no one knows if that was due to injury or ineffectiveness.

    I'd say Austin Spitler could be a prime target for a call up onto the 53 man roster if Walden is bounced, so is Te Mickey Shuler if Mastrud is bounced.

    With McDaniel suspended there is also an additional roster slot open but that figures to go to a DE.
     
  5. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Dotson and Baker haven't shown much , they may be vulnerable , for all the bottom churning , we haven't hit on a couple special team aces have we?

    Hilliard has been eaten up on special teams , want , need and expect more from a rb taking up a roster spot.
     
  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I like Baker, he doesn't have any one skill that stands out, however he is a heady player who can hold his ground and push the pocket when asked.

    He reminds me of the Bills Kyle Williams or our old DT Jeff Zgnonia
     
  7. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

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    Dederick Epps, come on down!

    You are the next contestant to be the Dolphins Back Up TE!

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2I_nUuSsQQ"]YouTube - The Price is Right music: 1975-2007 "Come on Down" cue[/ame]
     
  8. jetssuck

    jetssuck I hear Mandich's voice...

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    The mob would like to point out to you that for all that effort, we amassed 23 points..... which wouldn't have been enough to beat them in both games last year either.

    Special teams didn't stall drives and settle for field goals.

    And while yes they sucked as loud as the defense did at times...... bottom line is we need to put the ball in the end zone. And stop putting our base offense in the hole as a result of Henning trying to reinvent the wheel.

    We should by all rights have scored more points last night....... and not doing so is what cost us that game.
     
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  9. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No. It put us in a deeper hole, but it didn't cost us the game. The defense and piss poor STs cost us this game.
     
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  10. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    we alsmost doubled tom brady's patriots. how many coordinators do you think are going to score 23 on the jets this year?
     
  11. jetssuck

    jetssuck I hear Mandich's voice...

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    You can't expect to give up 10 points every Sunday and we had to score 25+ to beat them both times last year.

    Sometimes you have to just outscore the other team....which we should have been able to do.

    Bottom line is all we could score is 23 points....... which isn't much considering the stats we put up. That 23 points is also less than the Jets have scored the last 3 times we played them.
     
  12. jetssuck

    jetssuck I hear Mandich's voice...

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    We scored more last year.....when their defense was better and we didn't have Brandon Marshall.

    And you can bet your *** if we don't score more than 23 next time we play them we'll lose again.
     
  13. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    would you agree that the patriots have a better offense than miami? by expecting more than 23 you seem to be implying that we have the best offense in the NFL
     
  14. jetssuck

    jetssuck I hear Mandich's voice...

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    I think the Patriots are lacking the running game and OL to put up much of a fight against a good defense.........and yes, I like our offense better.

    Scoring more than 23 points against the Jets doesn't make you the best Offense in the NFL...... you're not trying to pick up chicks, quit exaggerating
     
  15. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    :lol: at the chicks comment. The Patriots are the number one scoring team in the NFL, number 8 in total yds. the jets defense was averaging giving up 12 pts per gm before facing us. we basically doubled that. how many coordinators are going to be able to score more than us this year? they are facing 13 coordinators this year. two so far have failed to score 23. this is their schedule. and the patriots destroyed a pretty good cincinnati defense

    Buffalo (0-3) 1:00 pm EDT
    Minnesota (1-2) 8:30 pm
    Denver (1-2) 4:05 pm EDT
    Bye
    Green Bay (2-1) 1:00 pm EDT
    Detroit (0-3) 1:00 pm EST
    Cleveland (0-3) 1:00 pm EST
    Houston (2-1) 1:00 pm EST
    Cincinnati (2-1) 8:20 pm EST
    New England (2-1) 8:30 pm EST
    Miami (2-1) 4:15 pm EST
    Pittsburgh (3-0) 4:15 pm ES
    Chicago (3-0) 1:00 pm EST
    Buffalo (0-3)
     
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  16. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    Faulty comparison. Total yardage is irrelevant to likelihood of victory. The Colts aren’t an elite offense because they rack up yards, but because they finish drives and score points.

    We didn’t.

    Though to be fair, if Yeremiah Bell doesn’t stink it up and allow two TDs—hell, if he only allows one TD—then we win that game, because in the final drive we could have just kicked a field goal to win after Marshall’s catch and run.
     
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  17. jetssuck

    jetssuck I hear Mandich's voice...

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    You're sample is all of 3 games and prior to Sunday we were giving up a lower average of points than the Jets.

    How many times do I have to say this......... the last 3 times we've played them, 23 points wouldn't get the win. So you can't just say that 23 should have been enough.

    I'm a lot more concerned with not being able to call a play that gets us in the end zone than I am with special teams....
     
  18. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    Although it was not my comparison (it's Tim Graham's quote) it is not a faulty comparison AT ALL. You say the Colts finish drives? Obviously you did not look at the statistics from the games provided. The Colts red zone effeciency was 50%. Our red zone effeciency was 50%.

    The game was decided by the "hidden yardage" that Tony Sparano cites all of the time. It's not me citing the yardage. I'm just pointing to something that was blatantly obvious during the game and using Sparano's words to back up my claim.

    Padre did a good job citing the yardage that Sparano pointed to in his press conference. If you didn't read it already, I'll say it again.

    140 yards of returns
    50 yards worth of blocked punt assuming a fair catch
    20 more yards due to the kick out of bounds

    Altogether it was 210 yards of special teams. The final two chunks of yardage in that math was just seeking AVERAGE performance. Is it too much to ask for a forty yard net punt? Is it too much to ask to cover a kickoff so the opposition will start at the 20 yard line?

    Coverage units will take the field about 10 times per game. That is a total of 10 plays! Do the math. If our defense allowed 21 yards per play, how many points would the opposition score?

    Or better yet here is a simpler equation. The Jets had 400 yards of offense. That is 4 scores considering a 100 yard field. Their special teams had two more scores by gaining over 200 yards. A full 1/3 of the Jets total yardage was on special teams. That's the kind of crap that you do not overcome.
     
  19. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    23 should be enough. and it would have been if not for all the breakdowns and bad luck. that doesnt even include the 7 points that henne misssed on his first throw. if nolan hadnt been outgameplanned in the first qtr and if our sp tms had played average we win that game going away. its not even close. that was simply a close game where we shot ourselves in the foot. the playcalling was not the problem, the execution was
     
  20. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    Down goes Frazier!!! ... or the mob; whichever you prefer to be called.
     
  21. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    The ebb and flow of a game dances with all sorts of analysis. I get what you are trying to say. You are trying to get to the brass tax of things. Okay......

    Late in the Wannstedt era (like everyone else) I was searching for answers. I did a little impromptu study of what it would take for the Dolphins to win enough games to make the playoffs the previous year. I was searching for what we were asking of the Dolphins offense. Do you know how many points I found? I found that it took (on average) 23 points to win 10 or 11 games in the season.

    Now you have been adamant that it was going to take more than 23 points to win this game. The Jets scored 31 points.

    A kick return put them in scoring position at our 43.

    A punt block put them in scoring positipn at our 17.

    How many scores do we take off the board by defensing ONE of these possessions?

    Special Teams is a silent killer. In most games it's an obscurity. Other than field goals, it's just something that has to happen to change possession of the ball. That was not the case in this game. The Jets made it the deciding factor.
     
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  22. jetssuck

    jetssuck I hear Mandich's voice...

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    Regardless of where they started with the football..... we actually had more scoring opportunities than they did. We settled for FG's more times than not and they didn't...... they got TD's.

    ST will change a game on occasion but generally ppl make too much out of it's importance.

    The deciding factor was they put the ball in the end zone and we put it between the goal posts.
     
  23. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    we were #2 in the red zone last year. what makes you think we wont be this year?
     
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  24. jetssuck

    jetssuck I hear Mandich's voice...

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    Are we talking about last year or a specific game that was just played Sunday?
     
  25. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Why, because he's white? He certainly doesn't play like either of them. :shifty:
     
  26. mroz

    mroz Fix the OL Club Member

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    when are they going to fire that guy?
     
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  27. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    what would you have done, run? we werent running that well on them. more than likely they stuff those runs so the end effect wouldve been the same
     
  28. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Nah, he is not that great of an athlete but he does the technical things correctly, doesn't lose leverage, finds the ball, good push.

    Problem is I typically do not pay that much attention to fillin DT's so I had to name someone that people would remember.
     
  29. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    In the final analysis there was a one score difference between the two teams. It should be obvious that a half dozen plays could have changed the outcome.

    On offense: There are individual plays you can point to but the general problem was our ineffectiveness in the red zone. You could point to the play calling and/or the execution but that was the offensive failing. A little more effective red zone offense could easily have yielded enough points to win.

    On Defense: There were several mistakes (and penalties) that either allowed a score, preserved a drive for the Jets or robbed our offense of an opportunity. A mistake or two less would easily changed the outcome.

    On Sts: The general rule that many coaches use (including Sparano, I believe) is that 100 yards = 7 points. In this game, we had three major STs blunders that cost us about 140 yards, according to Sparano's numbers. The three blunders I'm referring to are the kick-off out of bounds, the long kick return and the blocked punt. Applying that general rule, those blunders cost us about 9.8 points.

    Basically, in such a close game better play in any of the areas could/would have resulted in a win. I don't think it makes much sense to argue about which was the biggest culprit. I do think it makes sense to discuss which is easiest to fix. IMO the defense will improve against the run and pass when CC returns. I also think that the return of Odrick and Ike will greatly improve our ability to prevent the edge runs. I don't think its reasonable to expect secondary changes to have a big effect. The rules favor the offense and the CBs and Ss will have games like this. I don't think its primarily a scheme problem.

    On offense, I think that we got too far away from the running game. The return of Jerry will help, but more importantly we need to use RB more in the base offense and also on third down. I like that Henne proved he can be trusted to pass often and still protect the ball. There will be games where we have to use the pass to set up the run so that trust is key. The timing between Henne and Marshall continues to improve. I would like to see our offense run through RB and Marshall with Bess as the third option.

    On STs, I see several issues. I think the coaching is suspect. I don't think these guys are well prepared. I also don't think the players are winning enough individual battles. I think that if they use more starters on STs we'll solve half of the problem and that may be enough to make our STs not be a liability. But of course, we're risking injury to starters and we're increasing the fatigue factor for our offensive and defensive starters.

    Now I know I listed multiple problems here, but we should remember how close this game was despite those problems. If just a play or two is different, we win the game. We would still have the same problems and be the same team, but everybody here would be feeling great. I only mention that to caution people against making too much of the issues b/c of their own emotional reaction. We have problems on this team, but so does every other team in the league. And I don't think our problems are greater than the other team's problems. In fact, I would say our problems are fewer than most.
     
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  30. DOLPHAN1

    DOLPHAN1 Premium Member Luxury Box

    might want to point out that at least 7 points came directly from ST play. The O may have stalled but it did score on a team it was not supposed to score on. They did not give up points as the ST's did.
     
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  31. PhinGeneral

    PhinGeneral PC Texas A&M, Bro Club Member

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    Special teams hurt, no doubt about it, but more generally I think the difference between the 2 games comes down to the difference in the amount of mistakes made. Not just on Special teams, where there were plenty, but defensively and to a lesser extent, offensively as well.
     
  32. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Or put the Jets in prime position to score.

    This was a sort of make up game for Ginn's two TD's last yr, and one more nail in the coffin of Football Outsider's moronic theory that "Special teams play is only 15% of a winning effort".

    Two games this year, the Jets and the Vikings, both hinged on special teams performing, for all of the Int's Favre threw, Fields pinned the Vikes inside their 15 yd line 4 times in 6 punts.

    Toss in Bess and Cobbs just are not threats as returners and Bonamego has a real mess on his hands, 4 core ST players who just are not performing meets Returners who aren't going anywhere.
     
  33. TheMageGandalf

    TheMageGandalf Senior Member

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    I have not seen our special teams unit be worth a damn since Westoff left.

    Its just been a train wreck ever since.
     
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  34. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Well Cobbs did make it past the 25 yard line once, so that is really an excellent game for us. :lol:
    Our kickoff unit is so bad I get excited when Cobbs makes it past the 20 yard line and I cover my eyes every time we have to cover a kickoff. Lex Hilliard must have set some sort of record for "number of times blown up on kickoff coverage in a single game".
     
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  35. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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  36. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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  37. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Yep, there were two or three Coverage players who were consistently blown up by the Jets Return unit:

    Hilliard
    Dobbins

    Were especially bad, Walden blew his blocking assignment (though I feel it was Ty Culver who took the wrong guy).
     
  38. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Nonsense, Keith Armstrong did a fine job as ST coordinator, until 07 when CamMule gutted the ST unit, he went to Atlanta and they set a record for fewest kick returns allowed.
     
  39. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    one thing i like about sparano is he gets right to the heart of the matter. it was obvious we lost the battle of the 15 to 20 play scripted start but nolan adjusted nicely afterwards (player screwups not scheme hurt us) and for the rest of the game. the offense was fine but the special teams were abysmal. and i llike the urgency with which he is talking about it
     
  40. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, yesterday was Termination Tuesday, so we will see if there were any shake ups in the 53 man roster.
     

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