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A Stat Monkey nightmare, Ricky William's Green Bay game

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by padre31, Oct 18, 2010.

  1. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    When I run afoul of stat monkeys, often times I simply have my own opinion to work with, one based on years of watching football and what tends to work, and what does not.

    In this case, Ricky Williams highlights my theory that long runs are overrated as they tend to be one time events and a good Running Back picks up positive yards and moves the chains consistently imo, and here we have it, we dominated Time of Possession, but how that was done, is Ground Sparano to a "T".

    RW had over 60 yds, a key trend in a Sparano victory, and he got that simply by grinding it out, 5 ypc avg, no run longer than 10 yds, which means highlights the "why" long runs are overrated and consistent positive yardage is more of a key to a victory.

    When Ricky ran the ball in overtime and the packers could not stop him, that was Ground Sparano to a "T".
     
  2. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    Ricky had how many yards?
     
  3. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    64, I misread Omark's stats.
     
  4. DePhinistr8

    DePhinistr8 Season Ticket Holder

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    How Lamar Smith of him.
     
  5. HULKFish

    HULKFish Artist and Scribe

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    Love Ricky but Ronnie needs more carries!!! And more touches!!! Ronnie is one of our best receivers, never used. He should be getting 20-25 carries a game at this point, or at least in that game. Ricky ran well though and got the better creases...
     
  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Why, so Ronnie B can be injured again? What is this madness that feels if Ronnie handles the ball more he somehow will last a full season?

    I do think Ronnie B should be healthy for this run of the next 3 games, but no way he should see over 20 touches, running or passing, consistently, he just does not hold up to the pounding.
     
  7. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I think you have a Stat Monkey fetish Pads. It is your own term that you quite cleverly invented and use.
     
  8. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    This is a good case for it Mr C, similarly, the Football Outsiders stat monkeying over the value of Special Teams (18% vs 41% for Offense and 41% for Defense) can be disproven on a weekly basis.

    Percy Harvin's 2nd half kick off return for a TD comes to mind, Carpenter's 3 FG's as well.
     
  9. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    No disrespect, Padre, but I think you should take a statistics course just to get a better understanding of the true meaning of stats and how to interpret them.

    Just because something like special teams value (18% according to FO) can be disproven on a weekly basis based on a few games doesn't make this stat inaccurate.

    Percentages (and other statistics) are not meant to predict every instance (in this case, particular plays or games). They're meant to give you probability over time.

    For every game in which special teams is huge, there are more games where special teams are an afterthought.

    For every back that has a workman-like game like Ricky did yesterday there are backs that pull of one or more long runs that contribute to a win a significant manner (or vice versa).
     
    MrClean likes this.

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