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Henne in the fourth quarter of close games: By the numbers

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by hugoguzman, Oct 19, 2010.

  1. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    Let's start with the obvious:
    -Henne had three fourth-quarter comebacks in 2009. He has one go-ahead TD pass and one game-clinching drive under his belt in 2010 (both came against the Packers last week).

    In close games during the 2009 season (I define a close game as one where Miami was leading by one score or less or within one score of taking the lead in the 4th quarter) here's how Henne performed in the fourth quarter:
    -Against New Orleans in Week 7: Henne was 6-15 for 41 yards with one very costly interception that put the game out of reach (Dolphins lost)
    -Against the New York Jets in Week 8: Henne was 3-3 for 26 yards including what proved to be the game-winning touchdown (Dolphins won)
    -Against the New England Patriots in Week 9: Henne was 5-12 for 60 yards (Dolphins lost)
    -Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10: Henne was 4-8 for 69 yards. He threw 1 INT but came back on the next drive and was 2-2 for 41 yards, setting up the game-winning field goal in the final seconds of the game (Dolphins won)
    -Against the Carolina Panthers in Week 11: Henne was 3-4 for 38 yards. He had a key 15-yard completion on third and 12 that setup Ricky William's 46-yard TD (on the next play) to put the game out of reach (Dolphins won)
    -Against the Buffalo Bills in Week 12: Henne was 4-13 for 52 with 2 costly INTs (Dolphins lost)
    -Against the New England Patriots in Week 13: Henne was 6-17 for 66 yards. He was 3-5 for 40 yards on the game-winning drive late in the 4th quarter (Dolphins won)
    -Against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 14: Henne was 1-3 for 6 yards with 1 INT (Dolphins won)
    -Against the Tennessee Titans in Week 15: Henne was 9-13 for 129 yards and 1 TD, helping mount a 15-point comeback to take the game into overtime. He was 2-3 for 4 yards and threw a costly INT that effectively sealed the loss (Dolphins lost)

    Overall, Henne was 43-91 for 487 yards with 2 TDs and 6 INTs, which would indeed make his overall passer rating well below 50 (43.6 to be exact). But when you look each individual game, you realize that Henne was a classic "feast or famine" QB, who put up great numbers in some games and horrid numbers in others.

    He won 5 of these "close" games" and lost 2, and was instrumental 4 of those 5 wins.

    Also, even though he was eventually the goat, it was Henne's play that put Miami in a position to go into overtime against the Titans.

    Not bad for a first-time NFL starter.

    And since the NFL is really all about progression and improvement, let's look at how Henne has performed in the fourth quarter of "close" games (same criteria) in 2010:
    In Week 1 against the Buffalo Bills, Henne was 5-6 for 41 yards. He was 4-4 on the opening drive of the fourth quarter, setting up a field goal that put Miami up by 10, helping seal the win (Miami won)
    In Week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings, Henne was 1-3 for 4 yards (Miami won)
    In Week 3 against the New York Jets, Henne was 6-11 for 89 yards. He helped setup a field goal early in the quarter and drove down the field at the end of the quarter but fell short on fourth down, throwing an interception to end the game (Dolphins lost)
    In Week 6 against the Green Bay Packers, Henne was 3-7 for 36 yards and a go-ahead touchdown on the 4th quarter. He was 2-4 in overtime, including a first-down throw on the game-winning drive (Dolphins won)

    Henne has been far steadier in the fourth quarter of "close" game thus far this season, completing 15 of 27 attempts for 170 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT for a passer rating of 71.5 with 3 wins and 1 loss. He was contributed to the win in 2 of those 3 wins.

    Is he Peyton Manning or Tom Brady yet? Not even close.

    Is he progressing? No doubt about it.

    Has he proven that he can help win close games? 8 wins to just 3 losses suggests that the answer to this question is a resounding "Hell yes"
     
  2. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Yes, but what does your intuition say?
     
    MikeHoncho and hugoguzman like this.
  3. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy

    That's a lot of good research, but what relevance does it have for this year?
     
  4. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    I'm guessing that you didn't bother reading until the end, huh?
     
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  5. Steven-O

    Steven-O F*** the JETS!!

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    thank you for those numbers. didnt notice he threw a few interceptions last year and critical times. but he also lead the time to victory as well in critical times. i think he is good at QB and will continue to improve in the position
     
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  6. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I like that question..
     
  7. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Hmm, I'm waiting on the results of the eye test.
     
  8. FinsAreLife

    FinsAreLife Well-Known Member

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    I think last year in close end of game situations he was just so-so and very inconsistent. This year however i think he's more developed and will be more consistent. Spactacular? Not sure if he's quite there yet. But consistent i think we'll see.
     
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  9. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    i think this year he is trying to hard to get on the same sheet of music as Marshall ... to a point of throwing to him blindly ... to me that is his main issue right now

    he still stares a bit too long ... and needs to put some air under deep balls

    but he is and has been since we drafted him ... my pick for QB for this team for the next 10 years !
     
  10. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    Good post and excellent analysis hugoguzman.

    At the end of the day, I think what we're all seeing is the development and maturation of a young QB. And, as such there will always be those that are not happy with the rate of his development vs. those that are willing to give him more time. For me, I'm willing to be patient as long as I'm seeing consistent improvement, and he's not a liability to the team.

    Are there flaws in Henne's game? Absolutely. But, there are also areas of his game that are already NFL quality. Qualities that many a QB (especially those that have worn a Miami Dolphins uni in the post-Marino era) have never demonstrated.

    Like I said, there will always be those that are not happy with the rate of his development vs. those that are willing to give him more time. I believe we will all know what we have at QB by the end of this season. Let's give him that time, and let's hope we have finally found our franchise QB.

    JMHO.
     
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  11. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    I think that during this offseason, there was a lot of talk about how Henne had improved and how he was going to continue to develop into a good QB. Well, here we are in the 5th week of the league and he is, in fact, improving and continuing to develop as it was suggested by the staff during the offseason. However, a lot of fans thought that "continuing to improve" and "improving" meant that he was Dan Marino, Jr. and because he hasn't taken his game to the elite status just yet, those fans are disappointed...

    They shouldn't be. No one should really think that he is Dan Marino, Jr. That doesn't mean he can't or won't be a viable QB for this team, just that it will take more time for him. Yes, he absolutely has improved. Yes he is continuing to improve. But he's still a young QB and needs more time. Will he be Dan Marino, Jr.....that's yet to be determined, but he is, for a fact, improving.

    Too many fans think that if the next in the line of QBs we have aren't Dan Marino's, then they are crap QBs, they should be scrapped and bring in the next guy....It doesn't work that way....Marino's only come around once in a while.... Ask jests fans about how long it's taken them to replace Namath...before they finally gave up on it ?? Even bottom dwellers like the Browns can't seem to replace Kosar ?? And when was the last time we saw a Jim Kelly type guy in Barfalo ??
     
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  12. dgb11112

    dgb11112 Hall Of Fame

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    The Relevance is...

    That after Last weeks game, and I believe that particular game made it his first full year as a starter. It takes at least a year or two to see what type of Quarterback you have. SO after a full season under his belt as a starter, he is better than what we have seen since Dan the man... IMO:knucks:
     
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  13. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy

    Yes. I read it all and like I said before - nice job. I’m all for Henne and realize he is doing a much better job than he did last year as far as interceptions and QB rating are concerned but, the addition of Marshall should equal more points and that simply hasn’t been the case.
     
  14. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    You guys have a bright future with this guy. He is clutch. Rodgers just isnt good in the clutch. He breaks my heart alot.
     
  15. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I disagree about Rodgers, he is a great QB. I think you're too close to the situation to appreciate it.
     
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  16. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    That is the opposite of what it means to be a fan.
     
  17. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Rodgers is very good. I'd kill to have him on this team.
     
  18. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    I think Rodgers is a great qb but he just cant win us a close game or come from behind to win. I hope he can do that for us like Henne is doing for you guys.
     

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