1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Chad Henne's Downfield Passing Game: An Objective Analysis

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Oct 26, 2010.

  1. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
    0
    Dec 13, 2007
    Based on statistics at espn.com, so far this season Chad Henne has thrown the ball 21 yards or more in the air exactly eight times.

    Here are the numbers of times other NFL QBs have thrown the ball 21 yards or more in the air so far this season, limited to QBs who have started every game for their team:

    Matt Ryan: 12
    Joe Flacco: 28
    Carson Palmer: 13
    Tony Romo: 21
    Kyle Orton: 27
    Aaron Rodgers: 26
    Matt Schaub: 14
    Peyton Manning: 30
    Matt Cassel: 9
    Brett Favre: 22
    Tom Brady: 14
    Drew Brees: 21
    Eli Manning: 25
    Mark Sanchez: 21
    Philip Rivers: 28
    Alex Smith: 18
    Matt Hasselbeck: 13
    Sam Bradford: 11
    Josh Freeman: 24
    Vince Young: 19
    Donovan McNabb: 31

    Again, Henne's number is 8, which is the lowest in the league among QBs who have played every game for their teams.

    The average number of throws of 21 yards or farther among the QBs listed above is 20.33. The standard deviation from the average of the sample above is 6.78.

    Henne's number of 8 is 1.81 standard deviations below the mean, which represents about a 7% chance that the difference between his number (8) and the mean (20.33) is due to chance.

    In other words, there's a 93% chance that the difference is due to something systematic, such as a deliberate attempt to throw fewer balls downfield, rather than some random occurrence.

    Of course the only way this could be argued to be a good thing is if our offense, especially our passing offense, is among the league's best.

    Overall we're 13th in the league in terms of overall offensive yardage, at 342 yards per game, and 13th in the league in passing yardage, at 235 yards per game. We're 16th in the league in rushing yardage, at 107 yards per game.

    Middle of the road in all areas.

    So IMO there is no valid argument that throwing downfield less than any other team in the league creates a better offense or a better passing offense, or somehow that it translates to a better rushing offense.

    Now, the question for me is, whose deliberate attempt is it to throw fewer footballs downfield than any other quarterback in the NFL?

    Is it Chad Henne's, is it Tony Sparano's, or is it Dan Henning's?

    Is it a combination of more than one of them?

    And why is that the case? Why are more balls not being thrown downfield?

    Add this to the mix as well: last year, in 14 games, Henne had 42 balls thrown 21 yards or farther in the air, which was 3 per game.

    This year his 8 in 6 games is 1.3 per game, fewer than half his per-game average last year. You would think he'd be becoming more of a downfield passer as he matures in the league, not less of one.

    Last year his QB rating on passes thrown 21 yards or farther in the air was 35.8

    This year it's 85.4.

    Perhaps someone took a look at what he did last year and decided to rein him in. Perhaps this is just part of the maturational process, where he reins in a part of his game while he attempts to refine it, to later expand it again once he's become more mature as a passer.

    Another interestsing tidbit of info: in 2008, Chad Pennington threw 34 passes of 21 yards in the air or farther. That's 2.1 a game.

    His QB rating on those throws alone?

    134.6 -- extremely high.

    So for those who argue that the coaches are making Chad Henne play like Chad Pennington, take that into consideration.
     
  2. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

    8,141
    2,103
    113
    Nov 27, 2008
    Atlanta
    The players run the routes. It's the QB's job to get them the ball. Alot of heat was/is put on Henne this year due to pics. I believe this has messed with his head. He's being over careful with the ball. Unfortunately, checking down to receivers well short of the 1rst on 3rd and 4th down ain't getting it done. When is the last time he picked up his wheels and made a first with his legs. Very rare. And he ain't no Dan Marino. That added dimension alone would make him a much better QB.

    So for know we are relegated to a QB who plays looking over his shoulder. Whether it is rightfully so or not I am not sure. I do know this though, he's got reason to look, because we are stacked with two very good back ups.:up:

    Great post. One of the better I have seen in a while!!
     
    Da 'Fins and dolfan7171 like this.
  3. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    do you want to contend or make excuses for losing? analyze this:
    Pennington
     
    2socks likes this.
  4. dolfan7171

    dolfan7171 Well-Known Member

    18,065
    3,629
    113
    Jun 12, 2009
    Arizona
    Good analysis. Good work!!
     
  5. Makados10

    Makados10 Active Member

    302
    170
    43
    Apr 24, 2010
    I don't think there's a doubt that Henne is getting better this season...

    A big part of that is that he is finally learning that he doesn't have to throw a perfect ball to Marshall.

    The biggest reason for our lowly vertical game is that Marshall & Bess aren't speed guys. We don't have Ted Ginn Jr anymore and Hartline is fast but he's not scary enough to stretch defenses.

    The way Wallace burned Jason Allen was downright nasty. He couldn't have played it much better and still couldn't do a thing about it.
     
    Tin Indian, HULKFish and fin13 like this.
  6. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    :yes: that's the reason.
    got nothing to do with his ability as QB, the real problem is that we got rid of GinnJr
    & now he has to throw the ball to Marshall & Bess,
    not to mention the other knuckle head of a WR. what's his name?
    the really fast white guy, right... Hartline
    :yes: that's the reason.
     
  7. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

    37,392
    14,745
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    new york ciity
    do you know what kind of defensive coverages miami is facing when they throw? analyze that and you will get your answer
     
    HULKFish likes this.
  8. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

    2,148
    1,398
    113
    May 3, 2010
    Sounds good in theory. However, Henne has thrown the ball three times to Marshall deep. Marshall has caught two of those for 86 yards. The other pass was incomplete. The ball was thrown just a little short and Marshall dropped what could easily have been a TD. Seems to me it is worth taking a few more shots deep to Marshall. At worst, that would open up the underneath routes for Marshall as the secondary gives him a little more cushion.
     
  9. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area

    Friend adamprez2003:

    completely forgot about that one :shifty:
    another great excuse
    even better than the WR thing
    of course its the defense
    Geeeeee! how'd that get by me?
    if it weren't for the offensive coordinator, the lame WR's
    & the horendous defenses Henne has to battle,
    why, he'd be the Second Coming of Marino! :yes:


    Ever wonder if Pennington could do any better or if Thigpen could do any worse?
     
    2socks likes this.
  10. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy

    I may be completely off base, but I think the staff is breaking Henne down intentionally. 1st he needs to play like CP10. Protect the ball, throw it away and at all costs do not turn the ball over.

    Once he masters that phase of his development, he has the potential to be nasty.
     
  11. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

    8,141
    2,103
    113
    Nov 27, 2008
    Atlanta
    I predicted we would see Pennington by game 8 this year.

    I like Henne and I want him to succeed. However, I am not convinced he is going to get it done. Maybe over time. But I want to win now. I know I am being selfish, but I am allowed this is the Dolphins:up:

    I am soooooooo tired of not mattering. I just want to win.

    Franchise QB's, Marino's, Farve's Mannings, etc don't come along to often. I think if Henne was one of those we would know by now. So with that said he, at least for now, is a journeyman trying to be an NFL QB. I hope he can succeed, I just hope we aren't still talking about it in a couple years
     
    the 23rd likes this.
  12. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

    2,117
    1,082
    0
    Apr 14, 2008
    Some real interesting thoughts in this thread.

    My take is this:

    I agree that they are purposely reining him in, basically teaching him how to play mistake-free football (aka a Chad Pennington clone). Once he's got that figured out, they'll expand the playbook for him and look downfield more often.

    And by the way, I do think that Henne is on board with this. In other words, he's not really looking to heave it. He's just trying to move the offense with short and intermediate throws (and checking down or throwing it away when nothing is there, which is a good thing).

    Lastly, what none of us sees is what happens in practice. For all we know, he's not connecting well on deep balls in practice, so they're not running many of them in games.

    In any case, Henne is having a pretty solid season, particularly when you consider the caliber of defenses he's faced (and torched) - Pittsburgh is No. 1 in scoring defense, Jets are No. 2 and Vikings are No. 6 - so I feel as if there's plenty of time for him to expand his range.

    What is much more concerning in terms of our offense is the virtual disappearance of our running game.

    That's by far the biggest cause for concern in my opinion.
     
  13. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area

    Friend smahtaz:
    intentionally holding him back
    now that's a new take on 'why he's not'
    original & an excellent angle to consider
    works for me
    or maybe it could be Chad Henne
    now that's a thought!t
     
  14. FinFan_Est.1984

    FinFan_Est.1984 Get Aggressive!!!

    2,473
    567
    0
    Jan 6, 2008
    So. Calif.
    We need a speedster WR that can actually catch the ball and a RB in the early rounds of this upcoming draft. That along with the handcuffs removed from Henne will do us wonders.
     
  15. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    how about we think outside the box while the season is still salvageable
    :theman:Pennington is the ProvenBull & can run this offense
     
    2socks likes this.
  16. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

    2,117
    1,082
    0
    Apr 14, 2008
    You've got some serious contradictions in this post.

    For example, you say that you like Henne and want him to succeed and yet predicted that Pennington would start by Week 8 (those are sort of opposite ends of the spectrum).

    Also, you need to think through your "I am sooo tired of not mattering. I just want to win" concept. It's a shame that you're tired and all, but here's the reality. The present regime inherited a team that was 1-15. It's nearly impossible to turn that into a "team that matters" within 2-3 seasons, especially when you're trying to groom a young quarterback. You need to come to terms with that. If you want a perennial contender, you have to give the team time to grow and develop (remember that Miami has one of the youngest rosters in the NFL).

    And as for this thought: "Franchise QB's, Marino's, Farve's Mannings, etc don't come along to often. I think if Henne was one of those we would know by now. So with that said he, at least for now, is a journeyman trying to be an NFL QB."

    Where do I begin?

    1) Since you're aware that this caliber of quarterback doesn't come along often, it's even more reason to be patient with a quarterback that might not be at that level (and might never be) but has shown enough production to earn a right to develop slowly.
    2) How in the hell is Henne a journeyman? He's 25 years old, has just 19 starts and has only played for one team?
    3) Many franchises have never had a Hall of Fame quarterback, and the rest have had 1-2 at most (Miami has had Griese and Marino). The chances of Miami getting another one of that caliber are extremely slim, so adjust your expectations accordingly. Henne doesn't have to be at that level to bring home a championship.
     
    brandon27 and MarinePhinFan like this.
  17. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    Friend 2socks makes a lot of sense :yes: & I agree with him
    can't see much with your head stuck in the sand :no: just not doable
    sometimes, you have to think outside the box.
    the answer could be sitting on your bench. think about it :shifty:
     
  18. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

    2,117
    1,082
    0
    Apr 14, 2008
    The answer to what?

    Do you think that Pennington is our franchise quarterback of the future?

    Of course not. Therefore, you have to continue developing the guy that has shown a lot of promise in his first 19 starts:
    -Henne is durable
    -Henne has an extremely strong arm
    -Henne has an extremely high completion percentage
    -Henne has shown progression (steadily improving TD to INT ratio or steadily improving ability to move through his progressions for example)
    -Henne has lit up some of the top defenses in the NFL this year (Steelers are No. 1 in scoring defense, Jets are No. 2 in scoring defense, Vikings are No. 6 in scoring defense, and he threw for a combined 850 yards, 4 TDs, and just 1 INT against those teams, with a 60+ completion percentage to boot)
    -Henne has a winning record as a starter, approaching Pennington's overall record with the Dolphins (Pennington was 11-8 as a starter, 11-9 if you count the playoff loss, while Henne is 10-9).
     
  19. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

    39,245
    10,681
    0
    Dec 2, 2007
    Miami FL
    I wonder what will make me lose more brain cells, the stupidity of this post or the fact that I will have a seizure trying to read it.
     
  20. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy

    He was a gunslinger and now he's not.

    Do you really think that was his choice?
     
  21. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    Friend FinFan_Est.1984:
    Brian Hartline is the fastest WR on the roster, although not quite as fast as GinnJr. young Brian ran track in college
    & usually catches the ball & stays in bounds trying to pick up extra yardage unlike the aforementioned current San Francisco bench warmer
    YouTube - Universal Draft Presents Miami Dolphins WR Brian Hartline '09
    Brian is a legitimate deep threat, as a matter of fact our starting receivers present a total package, one of the best in the NFL
    unfortunately, our starting QB can't seem to hook up with them in a meaningful, consistent & appropriate way.
    have you watched this guy pass the ball? I forgot, can't see anything with your head in the sand. its the QB not the WR's.
    Henne is no Dan Marino. he will never be the Franchise QB we hoped for when we drafted him. he is mediocre at best
     
  22. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

    30,224
    36,965
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Jersey
    Give it a rest already. You're the one with your head in the sand here. A lot of people have posted plenty of stats that show Henne is having a good season.

    The problem with our offense is the running game. We are 13th in the league in passing.
     
    brandon27, Pariah, CaribPhin and 4 others like this.
  23. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area

    Friend Rocky Raccoon is absolutely right
    completely forgot about that one :shifty:
    another great excuse
    even better than the WR thing
    or the horrific defense Henne faces every weekend
    of course its the RunningGame
    Geeeeee! how'd that get by me?
    if it weren't for the offensive coordinator, the lame WR's
    & the horendous defenses Henne has to battle
    along with
    our pitiful Running Game screwing everything up
    Henne would be the Second Coming of Marino! :yes:


    Ever wonder if Pennington could do any better or if Thigpen could do any worse? think about it.

    GoFish!:dolphin:
     
    2socks likes this.
  24. Phinatic19

    Phinatic19 New Member

    461
    202
    0
    Aug 30, 2010
    Dolphins need:
    speedy wide receiver
    receiving tight end
    competent corner
    mark ingram

    After we get that we'll win games. Next year. :lol:
     
  25. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    really? you really mean that? are you sure about that? have you thought this thing through?
    :theman:Pennington
    this is year three, we should be contending not making excuses or fantasizing about 2011. personally, I hold Sparano responsible.
     
  26. Phinatic19

    Phinatic19 New Member

    461
    202
    0
    Aug 30, 2010
    Cool. Throw in noodle arm and have him on a stretcher vs Ravens. Good choice. :up:

    I believe Dan Henning is the problem, not Chad Henne.
     
    Steve-Mo likes this.
  27. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    now lets see, the excuses:
    1) the running game,
    2) confronting very difficult defenses every game he plays,
    3) the wide receivers are too slow & drop the ball too much,
    4) using an offensive system that is not complimentary to his unique abilities @ QB
    5) Henning makes bad calls that frustrate Henne & make him look bad on the playing field
    6) Chad Henne is intentionally being held back for whatever reason,
    7) he needs more time to get his game together.
    is there anything else?

    if Chad Henne had the makings of a Franchise QB we would know it by now.

    time to move on & make a run on the BigEnchilada.
    this is year three in the NFL, time to contend.
    Sparano needs to man-up & make some decisions that will allow us to compete.
    Give Pennington and/or Thigpen a shot
    while we still have a season that can be salvaged.
     
  28. finsincebirth

    finsincebirth Well-Known Member

    3,688
    3,133
    113
    Dec 1, 2007

    So this thread brings up the issue of lack of deep passing. Your answer to that problem is to put in Chad Pennington. A quarterback who has had multiple rotator cuff surgeries. Pennington can't throw deep anymore. How is that the answer?
     
    CaribPhin and Steve-Mo like this.
  29. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

    37,392
    14,745
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    new york ciity
    are you dense? the OP wanted to know why we dont have passes over 20 yds being thrown this year. Even a simpleton would understand that if defenses are playing to prevent the deep pass, the QBs job is to throw either short or intermediate underneath. That is why I said if you want to answer the question why we arent throwing deep you need to do an analysis of what kind of coverages are being presented. That may not be the reason but if you want to answer that question you need to have the answer to that question
     
    Steve-Mo likes this.
  30. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

    37,392
    14,745
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    new york ciity
    what is noodle arm Alex?
     
  31. finsincebirth

    finsincebirth Well-Known Member

    3,688
    3,133
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    I spent the majority of my life playing catcher in baseball, and as a result tore my rotator cuff and now have a labrum that according to an orthopedic surgeon resembles spaghetti. I had surgery and never really recovered my arm strength. It's safe to say that Pennington after two such surgeries has significantly lost arm strength. Someone may throw out Drew Brees, but you have to realize that wa a miraculous recovery.
     
    adamprez2003 likes this.
  32. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

    30,224
    36,965
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Jersey
    Yeah, I love Pennington and all, but Chad Henne makes throws every week Pennington wouldn't even try, and I don't mean deep balls. I mean fitting the ball into tight spots all over the field with his cannon.
     
  33. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    I think Pennington is a better QB in & out of the huddle than Henne. he doesn't need to rely on the deep pass & can get it down field on occasion when the game warrants it. I say use him up. play him until he's injured or gives us another Championship. if things don't work out, then let Thigpen & Henne compete to replace him.Drew Brees suffers from the same injury as Pennington & won a SuperBowl for N/O's after we showed him the door. give it a shot we're going nowhere with the offense as it stands under the command of Henne.
    always play the best man, always play without excuse, always to win:thanx:
     
  34. finsincebirth

    finsincebirth Well-Known Member

    3,688
    3,133
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    As I said, by all accounts Drew Brees' recovery is considered by medical experts to be miraculous. Pennington has always suffered from a weak arm and it hasn't gotten any better. Pennington will not lead this team to a championship.
     
    Steve-Mo likes this.
  35. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

    9,313
    4,169
    0
    Nov 11, 2008
    Ah geez ......
    Stan maybe :lol:
     
  36. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    if not Pennington, go to Thigpen, Henne simply is not getting it done. we're going nowhere with this guy. Sparano needs to man-up
    & not throw away the season. he needs to be a coach & make decisions in the interest of the team. he needs to win, the time to compete is now. man-up & play the best @ every position. there is no other way to make the play-offs
     
  37. finsincebirth

    finsincebirth Well-Known Member

    3,688
    3,133
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    What makes you thing we have the team to compete for a Super Bowl.
     
  38. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    Friend finsincebirth:
    it would take a blog to elaborate on that one.
    but I do think we already have a potential SuperBowl team
    having said that
    Chad Pennington is the only road that leads us there in 2010

    you need five things:
    1) you always need a little bit of luck in games & with injuries
    2) you need the Franchise QB (Pennington) & we have an elite receiving corp in the making
    3) the offensive line needs to take the next step & consistently open running lanes for R&R to exploit
    4) special teams has to intensify their game
    5) the defense has to continue to play as they are playing
    the SuperBowl is still a possibility in 2010
     
  39. finsincebirth

    finsincebirth Well-Known Member

    3,688
    3,133
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    So you are saying the entire team needs to step up to win a Super Bowl? That's not a Super Bowl caliber team. A Super Bowl caliber team is a built and semi-elite team that is a step away and just needs a little luck. What you describe is a rebuilding team.

    From wikipedia:
    That is not Chad P. He has 1 maybe two years left.
     
  40. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    I think it's a little bit cleaner if you go by percentage instead of number of throws at that distance. Henne's percentage is low, and his deep yards per passing attempt are low. I don't know if I'd call them ridiculous. Both numbers are the lowest among 22 QBs I measured with 150+ passing attempts.

    Here's the thing. There are a whole lot of assumptions being made about the correlation between passing 20+ yards and passing production. Those assumptions aren't necessarily good.

    Why would I say that? Am I crazy? No. I say that because I know these statistics pretty well. For instance, I know that the correlation percentage between deep passing tendency (number of throws over 20 yards divided by number of total attempts), and total passing yards, is actually a small NEGATIVE number (-1.93%, measured among QBs with at least 150 attempts). There's only a SLIGHTLY positive correlation between tendency to throw deep and QB Rating (+5.63%).

    So, we're bringing up all this noise about passes going to a particular place on the field that has not been statistically shown to bring superior production when you throw it there. Why discuss it, then? It's just a curiosity. It's not been shown to mean anything.

    How would people regard me if I brought up that Shaun Hill and Aaron Rodgers are by far THE least likely passers to throw passes that travel outside the left numbers at between 0 and 9 yards depth? Could I then point toward Aaron Rodgers being ranked only #10 of 22 in passing yardage and say "AH HAH! Rodger's non-use of the short left area of the field is clearly detracting from his passing offense's ability to move the ball. He's one of the least likely in the league to throw short left, and he's not even GETTING anything from his non-use of the short left, because he only ranks in the middle in passing yards."

    No. That would be silly. And in many ways the assumptions underlying this argument are pretty silly.

    Some things that you might interested in knowing:

    1. Despite Henne's relative non-use of throws traveling 20+ yards down the field, he is the 7th most likely (of 22 QBs with 150+ attempts) to use the intermediate depths of 10 to 19 yards.

    2. Unlike the deep throw tendency, which actually has a NEGATIVE and INSIGNIFICANT correlation with passing yardage, the tendency to throw between 10 and 19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage is +53.39% correlated with passing yardage. The tendency is +37.37% correlated with QB Ratings.

    3. He is also the 3rd most effective in the use of the 10 to 19 yard depth, as measured by passing yards gained at that depth divided by total attempts.

    4. Because of this effective use of the intermediate throw, Chad Henne actually ranks #15 of 22 in yards per attempt gained by passes thrown 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage (includes 20+ yard throwing yardage).

    The conclusion about this discussion of ultra deep passing tendencies has to therefore be that while it is interesting especially to stat geeks, it is ultimately not a very significant statistic as far as overall passing efficacy goes.

    The more fruitful discussion, IMO, would be about regularly throwing the football at depths of 10 to 19 yards, generally DOES correlate pretty well with overall passing production and efficacy. But of course I'm sure certain people wouldn't want to particularly bring that point up, because it reflects well on Chad Henne, whereas other (less significant) idiosyncracies give the(albeit unsupported) appearance of reflecting poorly on him.
     
    resnor, brandon27, Pariah and 3 others like this.

Share This Page