I'm generally happy with Henne, but it seems every day I come across a statistic which tells me we could do better. Take this year for instance, where Henne has 8 TD's. Sam Bradford has 11 TD passes so far this year, and he doesn't have Brandon Marshall or Davone Bess. Dave Garrard just had a 4 TD-pass game and currently sits at 13 TD's. Matt Cassell, Kyle Orton, Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, and Vince Young have all thrown more TD passes, and none of them (with the exception of Hill) have a WR like Marshall, and I think we'd all agree that Bess is better than the #2's on any of those teams. I like the progress Henne makes week to week, but it doesn't seem like he's making enough to keep up with the rest of the NFL. I think 10-20 years ago his progress is definitely solid, but in today's NFL when you have rookies coming in hitting the ground running, I'd like to see more production out of our QB. His play right now would be ok if he was a first-year player; not a guy in his 3rd year. I think we're afraid to admit that due to how much bad luck we've had with QB's the last ten years. "Clearly, Henne is the best since Marino" we say. But is he? Statistically, Henne is on par with Fiedler in most statistical categories. The only category where Henne is out-performing Fiedler is just passing percentage (by a point or two), and yards - but it's only a slight out-performance at that. Some random Henne facts: * In 21 starts, Henne has not yet had a 3 TD game * Henne has only had five career 2 TD games (less than 24% of the time you can expect him to throw more than one touchdown) * Henne has had four career multiple-INT games in that same span * He hasn't gone more than 2 games without throwing a pick, and he's only had 2 two-game stretches in his career of not throwing a pick * In 2009 3.1% of his throws were INTs. In 2010 2.9% have been INTs. Can we really consider that much of an improvement? * Henne is averaging .76 TD's per game (career) * Henne is averaging .66 INT's per game (career) Now compare to some of his contemporaries: * Matt Ryan has had 13 career 2-TD games, and 4 games with 3 or more TDs * Joe Flacco has had 9 career 2-TD games, and 3 games with 3 or more TDs * Sam Bradford already has 4 multiple-TD games (one behind Henne in one-third the starts!) * Matthew Stafford has already had a 4-TD and a 5-TD game in his one-year career (he hasn't played but two games this year). I could go on but you get the point - it isn't about where you were drafted, but about producing in the NFL. The yards (now) are there and the completion percentage are there for Henne - but the TDs aren't. Unfortunately, that's what's important! I'm not so sure that it's a function of our running game or available receivers, either. Fundamentally, yes - those factors DO count toward your ability to score. But I believe we've had the tools available but we're still not getting it done. At the same time I'm seeing a lot of QB's around the league that don't have the tools that Henne has, yet they manage to put up more TDs! Too many times we make excuses by pointing to other small improvements - but the point is we're not getting the points production from him that we need. Back to the "we don't have a rushing attack or proper complimentary receiver set" arguments.... Last year we had a solid rushing attack with a 1,000-yard back (and a 700-yard one) both averaging almost 5 yards per carry. And this year we have Brandon Marshall, which Kyle Orton managed to find 10 times in the endzone last year. Who started opposite Marshall do give him "room" to make plays in Denver? Jabar freakin Gaffney. and the Bronco's leading rusher (Moreno) couldn't hit 1,000 yards or 4.0 ypc. In 2010, even with our rushing attack's struggles, we're still averaging over 4 yards per carry which is better than many of the teams i'm comparing us to here. Should I mention that on the Rams (where Bradford has 11 TDs), His leading receiver is Amendola (who?), and Steven Jackson is averaging under 4 yards per carry - worse than our duo. So out the window goes that excuse We want to find other things to point to, but at some point you have to realize what you have. I think we've either groomed Henne into a game manager, or he was one from the get-go and we just don't want to admit it. Unfortunately, a game manager isn't going to get it done these days (unless you have the NFL rushing leader & the most stellar defense in the game - Ravens & Titans anyone?). Henne was touted as a gunslinger when we drafted him. Because he has a strong arm? Pennington tossed nineteen TD's in 2008 - 3 more than Henne has in 21 games - and Pennington didn't have Marshall. Pennington did this with Ted Ginn and Greg Camarillo.... Seriously. I'm not advocating putting Pennington back in as I don't think that is our future - but I'm making a point. I'd take a noodle-arm TD passer over a turnover-prone strong-armed game manager that struggles to find the endzone. To be clear, I'm not saying Henne isn't the answer. I'm saying we need much better production out of our QB, especially with all the tools he's been given (not to mention one of the best pass-protecting lines in the league). I remember reading a wise GM once said "Unless you have a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, you draft a QB every year - hoping to find that next franchise QB." I'm certain Henne is an above-average QB, but I'm not seeing him being our "franchise" guy in the vein of Manning, Brees, Brady. I see him as a Kitna - some highs, some lows, but overall middle of the road. A serviceable guy that probably won't get you far in the postseason unless you have a stacked team around him. (Before you laugh at the Kitna reference, realize that Kitna has a better career TD-to-INT ratio than Henne and a very comparable passing %) Do we draft a QB next year "just in case"?
Before last season I was all four starting henne over pennington.I thought his strong arm would open up the offence but the problem is he either does not see the field or he is to scared to throw a pick in a tight window.In the red zone you need to have the confidence to thread the needle. I think if pennington was the starter we would be 6-1 tied with the pats.The game against the ravens is going to come down to the qbs and I do not think flacco is great but he is better than henne.
Good post. I think Henne is improving but he is certainly still in the "average" category of passers. He is growing on me a bit, as I have been a critic, but I'd like to see them let him play a little bit more. I'd like to find out if he can really play or not. Be prepared to be shouted down and called a moron and bad fan by other posters.
Oh yeah, because Pennington did so well the last time vs Baltimore that he'd have a better chance than Henne this weekend. Pennington's weaknesses play right into the hands of a dominating defense like Balt, Pittsburgh.
Handle this Padre. Stop looking at stats. It's about offensive playcalling too. The run game. The ability of WR's to get open against a Defense. The stubbornness of a coaching staff to run the ball at the Vikings of all teams. Stats never tell the whole story and this thread proves it. If you just look at numbers on a page but don't take into account play calling or the situation on the field, what's the point? Then you compare Pennington's TD's, a veteran in 2008, to Henne's in 21 games including a 2009 which was his first year of starting and not even because they thought he was ready. Pennington's 2008 campaign with us was an outlier. His TD/INT percentage every other full season was higher than Henne's. He started off 2009 terribly and 2008 he played against the WORST defenses in the league. When you look at numbers and don't take anything else into account, you get a narrow thread like this. One that doesn't take into account Pennington NEVER had a TD/INT ratio as good as 2008 before 2008, threw 4 INT's against a Ravens D in the playoffs (one of the only good Defenses he played in 2008), Henne hasn't had the luxury of Ray Rice in the backfield, not to mention poor field position. The reason Steven Jackson averages less yards than our duo is BECAUSE the stack the box. You're implying they don't respect him. They respect him so much he can't run the ball and Bradford has been able to shine because of it. I can't even articulate what I want to say properly or use real sentences at how narrow some of these points are. Also, we average more than 4 ypc because no one stacks the box anymore. They put more people into coverage because they're not afraid of who we have. EDIT: After I calm down I usually have to Edit my posts. And another thing, there have been stats posted on both sides that 'prove' both sides. If you're just posting stats what's the point? 2008, Pennington threw against the worst defenses in the league and had the easiest schedule in the league and managed 21 TD's. He had the Wildcat going for him and Henning appeared much less conservative. He got to shred up terrible D's and still didn't shred them. Pennington started off 2009 pretty badly too. Pennington is accurate, but statistically he hasn't been this no turnover God that he's being painted as. Henne has thrown a lot of ill-advised passes over his short, short career. The thing is, comparing Pennington's fairly long career from NY to Miami culminating in a merely solid year in 2008 is unfair to Henne's short career from 2009 to now when in 2009 he wasn't even supposed to be the starter. He was supposed to come into 2010 the starter after having gotten to watch. This year he has played against a solid Jet D, Pat D, Steeler D, and good Bengal secondary and still hasn't looked like a deer in the headlights. He hasn't been particularly fiery but you can't expect him to when fiery play calling is absent. I wonder what would happen if we get Ken Whisenhunt after he is probably going to be fired.
Great write up, but to be clear, Henne is going through OJT and has far far better tools physically than Feidler ever had, Jay Feidler couldn't bust a grape with a throw.. And you are overlooking Offensive Philosophy in your write up, which, not to be insulting, is Stat Monkery. Chad Henne is a product of what Sparano WANTS TO DO on offense, it is not a reflection of Henne's ability or lack there of, Sparano wants the offense to max protect the football at all times and that hampers Henne's stats.
He didn't play well but you tell me one legit wr threat he had.Not to mention the ol getting blown off the ball the whole game by the ravens defensive line.Do remember are center getting picked up and thrown in the backfield? The ravens were a much better team than us in 2008 a if you don't see it you blind.
I think you underestimate the members of this board....I surely don't generalize the majority with the minority. It was a good post, no matter if I agree or disagree.
Henne is what he is because he is being taught by CP and is being forced to be modeled after Simms .... he is NOT being sent out there to use his arm, which most seem to be pining for. Look at the Parcells tennets of QB play .... he has had to 'unlearn' probably most of what he thought a QB was supposed to do since he's been here. Personally, i think that has been bad for his maturation .... but time will surely tell. we can talk chunk yardage all we want ... but i don't see the play calling supporting that premise .....
I've seen too many posters who are any bit negative on Henne/this regime be the target of plenty of visciousness. Maybe I generalized too much, but it happens.
That's why you give a guy 3 years IMO. Ryan and Flacco are in their third, whereas technically this is only Henne's 2nd, and 1st as a full-time starter. Last year you can chalk it up to a lot of different things; A lot of rushing TD's, no big play WR, Hennings play calling, etc. This year, there are fewer excuses with Marshall and Bess, but the play calling is still horrid. His completion %, QBR and YPA are pretty solid. I say if there are still doubts next year then yes, you draft a guy to hopefully take his place. Hpwever if he improves as much next year as he did this year, I don't think we'll have to. But it's hard to watch the games and not feel like he's being handcuffed. Maybe rightfully so? Not sure yet until we see more of him.
Agreed. Which is also making it more difficult for us to score TD's, whether running or passing which also affects how Henne is viewed.
At some point, they have to trust him to go out and win a game. I'd like to start seeing that this year, particularly given that I think Henne has had 3 of his better games the last 3 weeks.
True that, which is why I'm not overly critical of Chad Henne, I understand what Sparano and Henning are trying to do with him and the offense. Why not compare Henne to Dilfer in Baltimore? Or even better, Brad Johnson in Tampa Bay? Or if one really wishes to make a comparison, Joe Theisman in 1982? Because to me, we are pretty much are the 1982 Redskins in offensive outlook, just sub Ricky Williams for John Riggins, and Beast for Art Monk, and Cam Wake for Dexter Manley.. Henning was on the Offensive Staff in DC that year, and the NFL MVP? Mark Mosley..the Field Goal Kicker..que Rod Serling..
No reason in particular except the reason i started this analysis was based on scoring. YPA might be attractive (much like completion percentage), but that doesn't necessarily put points on the board. For starters I'm not Padre Second, I realize 2008 was arguably one of Pennington's best years - but that wasn't the point. He was on this team in this system, same offensive coordinator, same coach, with arguably worse personnel. Unlike Henne, he also didn't have a year of being on the team and working with the players to learn their tendencies before starting. Pennington came in a month before the season started If he can get 19 TD's with his noodle arm with Ginn and Camarillo, his entire career before that doesn't matter for this analysis. Stats do NOT tell the whole story - I'll be the first to tell you that. But you can't completely discount them either. I'm not a stat monkey, but come on -how can one make an argument without backing it up with stats? If I came out and made all this case without listing any numbers, what would you guys say then? Let's be fair here We have had the same coach & OC from Pennington to Henne; I think it's a fair comparison. In fact we've gone more pass-oriented if anything, which *should* tilt those other circumstances you're pointing out in Henne's favor if anything. Plus Pennington never had Marshall
I didn't compare Henne to those guys because I'm afraid of the results but seriously, those are all the exceptions - not the norm. Plus those offenses weren't notorious for scoring points, which is what drove this thread in the first place. I don't think the "game manager" method will work too well in today's NFL anyway as we've moved to more pass-heavy format. Those manager types thrived in the run-first, trenches battle teams that had top defenses. Like I was saying in the first post, we don't have that top RB, we're not winning the battles in the trenches (run-game), and we certainly don't have a "top" defense (although I'd argue top-half). Given that, a game manager isn't what we need to win (IMO). I would think a team would strive to land something better than a manager anyway. You really want to find that franchise guy, you know?
First, I think Henne is more talented than those guys, second we aren't the '82 Redskins. We don't have that o-line or defense, and it's 2010 and not 1982. And we certainly don't have the Ravens "D" of 2000. Our inability to score TD's (only Carolina is worse than us) is going to cost us victories. It already has. And that spells doom for a playoff run
All true, consider though, we've played 3 5 win teams, something we did not do at this same point in 2008, the schedule this year, as well as the offensive philosophy while playing this ultra tough defensive teams just will not allow Henne to take even mild chances with the football. Now consider, after the Titans game, we could easily see Henne put together several 2 TD/ 0 interceptions games in a row, maybe even some 3 TD games as the defenses we face just are not as stout and that is why Stat Monkery this early, with this schedule, doesn't make much sense. Especially with how ultra cautious they were in the firs two games, Henne had what..30 attempts in the first two games?
Statistical comparison is exactly that, the year doesn't matter, if stats are going to be used, then use them fully. As for the defense not being as good, unless the numbers are crunched, how do you know that? And the season is not over as of yet, the defense could easily improve past it's 19th ranking in scoring defense as the ST has tightened up. And Crowder has made a huge difference one that Nolan explained was due to Dansby making calls in the huddle, and Crowder adjusting the defensive alignment on the fly, those two are making for a really solid duo. Nolan's D is currently: 17th in pts 8th in yds allowed 12th in passing yds allowed 11th in rush defense. Wait until we play the second half of our schedule, those numbers will drop even lower.
Stat monkery this early? Henne has played 21 games for us. At what point do you feel we can start looking at stats to make an objective analysis? You surely can't be pointing to what Henne could do post-titans game as evidence of improvement. I've watched Henne play as well. I'm not someone that just looked at PFF and came here to make a post.
Fair enough, but I don't really need to look at stats to know we're not as good as the ravens of 2000. you just need to watch the games. We're leaky against the run, we don't force the turnovers, etc.
Though consider Pad, exempting the NE game in which he was horrible, Henne had two of his best games against the Jets and Steelers. He was also good against GB. Conversely, he was average to mediocre against buffalo/minny and pretty good, although nothing spectacular against cincy.
I'm going to have fun giving a more detailed piece of feedback, but for now, I'll just say this. IMO it's counterproductive to compare Henne to anyone other than himself at this point in his career. Thus far, Henne has shown clear progression over 2009 (both statistically and visually) which is all the more impressive considering what a massive step back the running game has taken. P.S. While I love what Marshall and Bess are doing, I think that Henne is missing an absolute critical component that should be a must for all young QBs; something that Ryan, Flacco, and Sanchez have: A top-flight tight end. That's all for now...
texas - you should know you cant say anything negative about Henne - you get bashed to high heaven by the Henne lovers that its every other aspect of the game of why we lose - it cant Be the beloved CHAD
I'm only using "to date" stats here, not what could happen by the end of the year. Fine, but there are literally thousands of variables in any NFL comparison like this. Given we're talking about two different people from two different years, it is physically impossible to compare on an even plane. When you start looking for things like the defensive unit performance to rate a QB's performance, you're really reaching to make the point IMO. Basically, you've told me i can't compare Henne to his peers on other teams because those teams have different offensive philosophies & talent, and now i've been told i can't compare Henne to his predecessor because we had different personnel, defense, ease of schedule, etc... what would you like to compare Henne's performance to? Our own personal expectations? Fine, I expect more from my QB than 8 TDs through 7 games
Hehe, to be clear i'm not bashing him. In fact the gameday jersey i wear is an orange Henne jersey That's why it's hard for me to take off the aqua glasses here, but I'm trying To underline the point, I agree and I've said as much. Still, the progression isn't enough and it's not coming fast enough is the point I'm making. PS - Agreed on the top flight TE; definitely a top need. Still, a serviceable Fasano caught 7 TDs from Pennington in 2008
In this thread people are bringing up the lack of scoring, but we have put up some of the most points allowed by some of the top defenses in the league. I think if you told most people b4 pitt we`d score 22 they`d expect us to win that game. We lost the jets game due to defense, same with pitt and the pats obviously because of special teams.
Good post, you make a lot of good points. The only thing you didn't touch on that I feel is a very important aspect of this team, coaching. Not sure if you have noticed but it seems that this team goes into a shell when it gets inside the 30. Run the ball a couple of times, throw an incomplete, FG. We have probably seen a total of 7 or 8 throws into the endzone by the offense and I'm not sure we have seen any the past two weeks. This coaching staff is very conservative when it comes down to being on the opposing teams side of the field. Now is that a lack of confidence in Henne? Could be. It could also be a mindset that they want to always stay in the game and if that means hunkering down and locking up 3 points, they will do it. Henne didn't help himself in the Patriots game. Two drives on the Patriots side of the field and Henne threw picks in both. Could have been anywhere from a 13-6 to 21-6 halftime score where the KO return wouldn't have meant as much as it did and wouldn't have been as much of a game changer. Either way, we still would have had the FG and punt blocked which would have been deadly but you know what I mean. In the end, if the coach's believe Henne will be the franchise QB, they need to start taking the training wheels off. If Marshall is consistently double and triple covered in the end zone, find other ways to move the ball. Replace Hartline with Roberto Wallace and start practicing some end zone throws from Henne to him. There is a lot of things they can do, just seems like they are happy taking 3. It's funny, b/c I've never been a Henning hater and I'm still not. I think he is a creative OC and draws up some really nice plays. His problem is inside the 30. His creativity is shot once we get down there. Hopefully we will see them take some more shots this week.
We're the only team not to score 30 points yet this year, and all of our losses were results of not scoring enough points.
I agree, and what's funny is when I brought up my disagreements with Henning's play-calling in other threads, I was told Henning is fine, a good OC, and it's just our personnel and execution that is the problem... which takes us back to here, where I'm looking to the personnel. I think what it comes down to is you can point out any flaw on a team - there will always be apologists for any given player, coach, or play that will defend it to the death. At the end of the day, something is causing the issues. Can't hurt to bring up ideas backed with facts to generate healthy discussion
Shmoot, all we can do, is do our best as individual members, to make our home here the best, to try and understand the original poster's point of view, and to make this place the most intelligent dolphin's site to express our opinion's on the net.. If someone is rude and ignorant like your post claimed there would be, then do your best to protect the integrity of our forum.. By saying what you said, gives the perspective that its true...I don't agree that it is relative to other places. not even close... jmo bro.
Fully agree and as I mentioned, Henne hasn't helped himself in gaining the coaching staff's confidence by throwing two critical INT's in the NE game when we were marching down the field. On the flip side, had the coaching staff taken the training wheels off of Henne in the Cincy game and he throws just 1 INT on one of those FG drives, we are in a much scarier situation on that last Bengals drive. A TD would have been a loss. Unfortunately I think this week is not going to be a good gauge of how explosive this offense can be b/c I believe the coaching staff understands how good the Ravens are and will want to keep the game as close as possible. Maybe we see a couple more shots down the field on 1st down but once inside the 30, expect more of the same conservatism this week.
The other side of this debate though Tex, is that Henne has a much higher completion percentage than any of those guys you've mentioned, and his YPA and QBR is either better or right there with them. As is the yards per game. So yeah, Henne isn't quite there with them touchdown wise, but he's either outperforming them or right there with them in other main categories. As others have already said, if our running game was good like it was supposed to be, Henne's numbers would be even better than they are. That's a major disadvantage for a young quarterback. If you take away the stats though, as you've said, Henne has made solid progress this year from last. His touch passes have greatly improved and he's going through his progressions a lot better.
I understand your point dj, but I think you might be taking a relatively light hearted comment a bit too far. There have been plenty of Henne wars here and there will continue to be, sometimes they get heated, I was just joking with Texas that he had drawn a bullseye on himself. Nothing else was meant by it.
I've always thought that you break a QB down based on how he performs on each individual play, and in certain situations, 3rd down, leading, trailing etc. Using stats can be useful, but more often than not stats are used to support a conclusion not make one. 8TDs in 7 games is, on the surface, not good. We can all agree on that. But Roberto Wallace dropped a sure TD (after running out of bounds) on Sunday. Brian Hartline dropped a potential TD. Both throws were perfect. Does that mean Henne didn't have a good game? Not IMO. I'm not defending Henne, he missed a wide open Marshall in Buffalo and in Minnesota on plays that were sure TD's. He threw a rocket ball vs Pittsburgh on a fade route where Marshall had beaten Ike Taylor for a potential score. Henne threw a perfect fade to Marshall at the end of the Jets game that Marshall couldn't get to b/c he was too tired. Henne missed Cobbs wide open for a TD last week, forcing the ball into Bess at the goal line instead. It's a mixed bag to say the least, but to hone in on on any stat or group of stats as a representation of a player's performance is folly IMO. There's no substitution for watching the tape.
all QB's listed in this thread have that issue though - not just Henne. I'm trying to cut out the common denominators that all of them face and narrow it down as best we can. Rocky - Henne has a better completion percentage by a couple of points over some of those guys, and I've acknowledged as much in the first post. I'm very concerned with putting points on the board, though. In 2004 Tom Brady had a 60% completion percentage, but won the Superbowl. So while Henne's % is good, time to look at improving elsewhere
