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Thigpen could be the best fit down the stretch (and an interesting Henne stat)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by hugoguzman, Nov 15, 2010.

  1. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    No need to come to his defense. He's a grown man (and I know who he is and how he got his reputation).

    Don't think it's too much to ask someone to come with more than what amounts to a "because I say so" response, even if it is a forum celebrity (whatever that means)
     
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  2. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    Couldn't disagree more. Let me put it to you this way; if you think that the run blocking was bad thus far, you'd probably regurgitate your Sunday breakfast had you seen what that line would have mustered without Long. Moreover, the pass blocking, which was shaky on Sunday (but not because of Long) would be much much worse without him.

    Or to keep it even more simple, go ask the Lions and Matthew Stafford (who just suffered his third shoulder injury) how important a left tackle is.
     
  3. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    You're simply barking up the wrong tree here. Henne has been one of the best QBs in the NFL in terms of third down conversion percentage, and particularly on third and long, and if you go back and look at those conversions, you'll see that most of the throws are of the 10-20 yard variety.

    That's one of Henne's biggest (and most unnoticed and underappreciated) strengths.
     
  4. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    Actually, I would argue that while there are some folks like that on this board, this one of the few places where you're allowed to have that point of view (a very valid one by the way).
     
  5. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    Definitely far from a guarantee (that Miami will draft another Dan Marino) but it's virtually impossible to argue with the fact that we a) have not invested a first round pick in 30 years b) have had a virtual carousel of quarterbacks for the past decade

    Most people know that I'm a Henne advocate, and I'm also on the record saying that I want to see Thigpen shock the world and play Pro Bowl caliber football. That said, if Henne does not come back this year due to injury (or gets re-injured trying to come back too soon) and Thigpen plays average football or worse, it would seem like the 2011 draft would be a good spot to upgrade at the position and hedge the Henne bet.

    Now granted, if there's absolutely nobody available that worth a first-round pick whenever the Dolphins end up on the clock, then sure, let's go with the best player available. But if there is a quality QB on the board at that point, the Dolphins need to take him.
     
  6. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    Clearly, this is just an opinion call (like most other topics of discussion on this forum) but as far as I'm concerned, if this knee injury keeps Henne out for the rest of the season (a big if) and Thigpen plays backup-caliber football in his starts, I do not want to go into 2011 (and beyond) with just those two guys as our lone options for the immediate future.

    If Henne comes back and plays well and/or Thigpen plays starter-caliber football, then I'd back off the "draft a QB in the first round" mentality.
     
  7. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, here is the way I look at it:

    -We will know, one way or another, what Thiggy "is" and what he is "not".

    -We have seen 8 games of Chad Henne and have a good feel for what he is and is not.

    While Dolfans are dealing with this stuff, Big Picture, this could be the very best thing that could have happened to the Dolphins.

    Because now, there will be a chance to look at both young Qb's, and then make a decision on whether to hold what we have, or to look elsewhere.

    For my pov:

    -Henne needs more weapons to reach the next level above "average starting NFL Qb"

    -Thiggy will work better with this offense if his strengths are catered to, if they try to make him a pocket Qb they are wasting everyone's time, let him create on the move and see what happens.

    This way, there will be a clear choice, do we want to stay with the pocket passing offense, or do they want to open things up?
     
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  8. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Henne has a mild knee injury, not a destroyed throwing shoulder. He's our GUARANTEED starter for 2011 unless Thiggy blows the doors off him. There's not a 1st round QB this year (who we'll have a shot at) who will outperform Henne next year to where the draft pick would even contribute. There's also a high potential for any QB not named Luck to NOT outplay Henne at all period..... ever. There's nothing that really screams franchise QB this year to date.

    Henne is far from a finished product, just as most 2nd year QBs aren't, so spending a valuable 1st round pick on a QB could really set us back b/c we're a few key players away from being an elite team. Get the offense another weapon at WR, TE, and RB and then see what Henne's got.... and see what Henne's like when he doesn't have a crappy OC (coach too??) trying to control his every move.

    We KNOW that we need an explosive running back to replace Ricky; we KNOW that we need a vertical threat; we KNOW that we only have 1 TE who's ok but not elite; we DONT KNOW what Henne looks like as a finished product b/c he's still growing. It makes no sense to replace Henne when we're going to need a RB, WR, or TE (or all 3) no matter what. If anything, giving Henne a full arsenal provides a better indication of what we truly have in him.... and if he doesn't pan out, then at least a future rookie QB will come in with a complete offense to better help him succeed like Matt Ryan did in 08.

    And we're not going in with just Henne and Thiggy.... although that's all you need. A 3rd string QB, if a team even keeps one, is typically a developmental guy..... and we have ours in Tom Brandstater like I already stated.
     
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  9. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Good point Padre.... It sucks having to find out this way what we really have in Thiggy, but if we can still win, then it's a blessing in disguise thing. If Penny's done, which he probably is, then we'll need to know if we can entrust Thiggy as our future backup. If he performs well..... great! Then we're set with Henne, Thiggy, and Brandstater IMO. If Thiggy runs into problems then we know we're probably looking for a quality vet in FA to sandwich in between 2 developing QBs.
     
  10. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    I'm not coming to his defense whatsoever. My point was you said
    . Suggesting people follow him is what I think you could have left out. I'd like to think people do not folllow him. They/We just appreciate his contributions. We have nothing to do with his post to you....

    I even said you may not have meant it this way at all but it came off like it to me...
     
  11. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO Thiggy brings improvement in some areas and is a downgrade in others. Thiggy is good at extending the play. He is far more athletic than either of the Chads. He is exciting and streaky. At times it will look like a school yard play. Since he's more of a running threat, we may face more zone which could lead to larger windows. On the downside, he is less disciplined. He tends to throw more risky passes. Very few QBs get away with doing that for long. You'll get more of those "bonehead" moments with Thiggy than you did with either of the Chads. You'll also get those streaks of really bad play. At least that's what he played like historically.
     
  12. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    You're making a huge assumption that Henne IS going to be the starter next year. Remember this coaching staff benched him. Thiggy could come in and play like Vick, and they annoint him the starter next year too. I'm not sold that the coaching staff is behind Henne. Not sure who it was that wanted his benching, Sparano, Henning? If it was more Henning and he's gone next year, it would be better for Henne to make his case, but if it was both, not so sure he wins it back so easily.
     
  13. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    THIS!!!! Well said Aqua.
     
  14. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Yep, sort of a trial by fire, if you went into this season desiring to know what we had a Qb, with no speculation involved, this is the only way to know who is who.

    Henne is a decent NFL qb
    Pennington was just to fragile
    Thigpen's turn at bat.

    That NFL Wolf is a ***** to deal with for Qb's very much like a submarine taking it's maiden voyage, if there are any weakspots in the hull the pressure will find them and just break right through and sink the whole thing.

    But the only way to find those weakspots is to submerge the thing.
     
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  15. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    As you and most folks know, I've been a proponent of giving Henne his fair shot, based on his performance up until this point.

    But in my opinion, you're simply too high on him. He's been good at times and has shown flashes of brilliance, but he has also been very shaky at times and has shown clear deficiencies (such as is continuing issues with touch passes).

    Also, you don't know the extent of his knee injury. You say it's mild, but we don't know that for sure. He could a) be out for the rest of the season b) come back and then re-injure it.

    If that knee is more serious and Thigpen falters, it's crucial for Miami to invest in a quarterback. All of us armchair guys can speculate on who will and won't be available, but until that draft happens and we get a really good luck at the QB prospects that end up being available, you can't simply discount drafting a QB in the first round.

    Besides, drafting a QB in the first round doesn't necessarily mean that Henne's career in Miami is over. Let him come back in 2011 and prove that he can consistently take him game to the next level. If that happens, Miami will have one proven QB and another young guy waiting in the wings (that's a great problem to have...just ask the Chargers)
     
  16. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    1. I understand where you're coming from, I really do. I'm not as much "high" on Henne per say as I am optimistic based on the fact that he is still developing/improving and has less than 2 full seasons under his belt (only 1 of which he was given the 1st string reins in the offseason).

    2. Henne's only 25; he's not retiring any time soon so we don't need anyone waiting in the wings...... and we don't need to create uncertainty in the locker room as to who the leader of this team should be. If Thiggy bombs, then you bring in a seasoned vet to replace him whom you can rely on..... and you keep Brandstater as your #3 to develop b/c he has some real potential to be a quality backup here.

    When you draft a QB in the 1st round, you're basically saying "this is our franchise QB of the future". That's a good way to lose your job when there are other positions that need to be filled while Henne is still ascending towards his full potential. The only way we draft a QB high is if Thiggy bombs, Brandstater doesn't impress in practice, or Henne suffers a serious injury. Otherwise I'd be surprised to see us spend higher than a 5th on a QB to compete with Thiggy. There's too much young talent on this team between Henne, Thiggy, and Brandstater. The last thing it needs is 1 more young QB added to the mix.
     
  17. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    No, it's actually a good one to keep it. You don't pass on a "franchise QB" because you might already have one. You pass on a "franchise QB" because you're darn certain you have one - or you don't pass at all.
     
  18. PhiNomina

    PhiNomina White-Collar Redneck

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    Tyler Thigpen career averages -

    73.6 QBR
    6.3 YPA
    54.3% comp%
    20 TDs
    16 INTs

    Jay Fiedler career averages (w/MIA) -
    76.8 QBR
    6.9 YPA
    58.4% comp%
    69 TDs
    66 INTs

    I find it ironic how much fans hated having a QB that was unconventional and made big plays (both positive and negative) when we had it - and now how many are cheering to have it back.
     
  19. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    And I find it ironic that the very same people who keep saying that one couldn't properly evaluate a quarterback after 21 starts do just that with Thigpen and 11 starts.
     
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  20. NJFINSFAN1

    NJFINSFAN1 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    It goes both way although, there are many here saying Thigpen is the answer, yet say Henne isn't, even though he has 10 less starts.
     
  21. TheMageGandalf

    TheMageGandalf Senior Member

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    You provided what proof? Proof of OTHER teams QBs? How many of those passes were due to situation, down and distance, screen passes etc.?

    WTF? Were you WATCHING those games and basing your 'factual' analysis on reality or perception of the stats?

    I dont know what Dolphins games you've been watching to say that Henne doesnt checkdown ASAP but it must be some other league on some other planet with a QB named Henne.

    At times he doesnt even bother looking down field more than a sec. before he dumps it off.

    Even god damn Omar K was talking about how he doesnt think the buzzer (since it wasnt really used this off season much) contributes to Henne's quick checkdown garbage.

    Dont want to rant on you Stitch but I would think that being on this board as long as I have I would've developed some kind of cred here other than just some dumbass talking crap on a message board but I guess I am not part of the little 'club' of favorites here.
     
  22. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    1. You did just rant on me.

    2. Never said or insinuated you were any sort of dumbass. And sorry for not recognizing your cred, I didn't even pay attention to who I was replying to. Guess I'll be sure to do that next time and overlook something I disagree with.

    3. I don't know what this little "club" of favorites is. Unless you mean GiK and Skeet (and Big E), which I can't imagine you mean since they rarely post in the mains by comparison.

    4. You said Mr. Checkdown to the RBs, not checkdowns in general. I provided plenty of evidence (and factual at that) that Henne doesn't checkdown to the RBs often compared to other QBs in the league (or even in 3rd and long situations). As to checkdowns in general, I guess it would depend on what you would consider a checkdown. You certainly didn't provide any proof with your claim though, but I'm sure it's because I'm watching a team on some other planet.

    5. You also said Chad checks down to RBs instead of going to Marshall, which doesn't make a lot of sense considering how many more targets he has than anyone else on the team (almost 1/3 of all of Henne's passes have gone to him).
     
  23. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Sorry but you're wrong. You don't know that a mid to late 1st round QB will EVEN be a franchise QB, but when you draft one in the first round, that's what you're basically saying you need out of him. Passing on a bona fide franchise QB is a not the same thing as passing on one whom you "hope becomes your franchise QB".

    It's a different story if we're talking about the #1 overall pick after a 1-15 season and you have a legitimate franchise guy like Andrew Luck staring you in the face. Then, yes, he would be somewhat difficult to pass up. After Andrew Luck, there are arguably no legitimate franchise QBs, only franchise hopefuls...... and to use your logic against you, you don't spend a 1st round pick on a "franchise hopeful player" if you're not darn certain he is an upgrade over the more experienced franchise hopeful QB that you currently have. Case in point: Brady Quinn. He'd probably be 3rd on our depth chart right now and would've been a total waste of a 1st round pick.

    Henne has shown enough promise (despite everything that's going on) to earn 1 more season of development just as any 2nd year QB would be given in his situation. Henne would have to fail in 2011 or implode if he plays any more snaps this season before we look at a 1st round QB. For every 1st round franchise QB there's probably at least 2-3 others who become nothing more than average starters to bust. The cards are stacked against us to find an upgrade over Chad b/c if it were as easy as you try to make it seem, we would've already had one by now rather than watching a revolving door of dookie the past 10 years.
     
  24. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    One area Henne has excelled this season is 3rd down.
     
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  25. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Right.... and IMO that's big for a young QB.
     
  26. windwalker

    windwalker New Member

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    What I don't understand on this forum is this.
    So many people are talking about Thigpen's interceptions.. and yet, his TD/INT ratio is better than Henne's.
     
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  27. Merauder

    Merauder Perseverance

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    Always liked Thigpen since the game against KC two years ago when it was 10 degrees out. He played a great game and made an impression on me. I guess it made an impression on the coaches also.
     
  28. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    very little choice in the matter. got to see what Tyler Beckham Thigpen brings to the table.
    the guy was passed over @ a chance to compete on a level playing field.
    I have always preferred Thigpen to the hen. he may surprise you in a positive way.
    Thiggy may very well be the answer to our dilemma:dolphin:
     
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  29. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    My uncle is a farmer and he will undeniably tell you: The hen rules the pen..... just ask his c o c k.
     
  30. SeanP

    SeanP Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I disagree with this last line entirely.

    If Henne has a chance of being the solution at all, drafting a QB in the first is probably the last thing we want to do. We've got other positions of need, and while youth is great, Henne is only 25 (Holy crap he's youner than me... Does every football fan go through a moment of panic when they first realize their age relative to the players?). To bring in a college guy at what, 21? That's a 4 year age difference?

    At best, you're going to turn one of them into a 1st round draft pick, and probably not get back what you paid for for the new guy. If you draft a new guy, you absolutely have to have him starting within 3 years, or you have officially wasted a pick.

    Bottom line is if you think Henne or Thigpen can be an NFL Starter at QB for 3+ years you do not draft a QB in the 1st round. Heck I'd go out on a limb and say even the 2nd round as our success there has been very debatable. If you don't think either of them is a 3+ year starter for us though, then I'd agree either this year, or next year we need to hit the 1st round for a QB (depending on who is out there).
     
  31. StLouisFinFan

    StLouisFinFan New Member

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    I agree that we won't spend a first round pick on a QB. We won't be picking high enough to even be tempted by one of the marquis college guys that would immediately threaten Henne's future. I do however see them spending a pick fairly high (maybe 3rd or 4th round) on a QB who has a ton of upside, a sexy pick, but has enough downside that the only way he usurps Henne is if his upside blows the top off of Dolphins headquarters. I see Ireland making a calculated risk on a guy that gives Henne some competition, provides continued depth at QB with Pat White washing out, and maybe, just maybe turns out to be a diamond in the rough. This of course assumes that Thigpen doesn't light it up in the next 7 games. IF he does, all bets are off. Because IF Thiggy plays well and gets the team on his shoulders, Sparano would incite mutiny if he categorically reverts back to Henne just because he was supposed to be the franchise guy.
     
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  32. StLouisFinFan

    StLouisFinFan New Member

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    I agree with the first two paragraphs, but the last one deserves a caviat. IF, Sparano and Ireland have seen a fundamental flaw in Henne's game (i.e. they've been trying to fix it since the moment they drafted him but still seeing it in spades), and they don't see improvment in that one critical area to the point they feel he'll be a liability on the development of the offense for years to come, then I think they'll not give two hoots in a hot place that he's only been given 2 years to develop on the field, and 3 in total. The smartest and most shrewd GMs are the ones who cut bait before it's too late, who read the tea leaves and make an educated prediction. Otherwise, if your guy doesn't pan out, you're left in a situation where you are desperate for a new QB (with not much time to groom him; thus increasing pressure on second guy to perform at high level), your team has declined year by year into the depths of hell known only by teams that have gone 1-15 (wait, what?), and the guy you want to get rid of has no market value whatsoever. I think Ireland is one of those guys, as he's demonstrated consistently, that cuts bait as soon as he feels in the back of his mind is finished. He's not going to wait until the answer is slapping him in the face.
     
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  33. SeanP

    SeanP Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's a really important thing to note. So far the people Ireland has cut bait with have for the most part been a good decision.
    Smiley, injured again.
    Grove, unemployed.
    Ginn, Being Ginn.
    Camarillo, Doing alright, but his replacement Sapp is doing just as well at a position we needed.
    Donald Thomas, Unemployed I think?
    Joey Porter, Who?
    Jason Taylor, Who?
    Gibril Wilson, Need I say more?

    Some of them might have been later than we liked, but he's definitely making good decisions when it comes to removing personnel.

    Then again, coming from where we were after 1-15, just about everyone was expendable.
     
  34. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Brandstater could very well be that "3rd-4th" round competition pick that you speak of who still is a little raw but has some upside...... but if they have any doubts about him (or if Thiggy doesn't produce) then I agree that we'll probably spend a mid round pick on a QB.
     
  35. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I'm a big Henne advocate, but I don't disagree with any of this at all. If I did, I'd just be ignorant. Until he's 100% proven, he's still not proven.
     
  36. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    While Thigpen can not take all the blame for last night. Especially with how badly the offensive line played and no running game. The game plan of the Bears was to stop the run and force Thingpen to make plays to beat them. Thigpen showed why his is nothing but a third string QB in the NFL. His passes were inconsistent and his overall play was well below average for a starting QB in the NFL. If he remains the starter for the rest of this season. I predict the Dolphins will be lucky to win anymore games this season. I have always felt that this Dolphins team was no better then an 8-8 team even when they didn't have all the injuries. Now with the injuries and the team having real no chance of making the playoffs. I think they will be lucky to finish the season at 7-9. Unfortunately the Dolphins are still several years from contending for a championship. The offensive line is a mess. The team needs new running backs and there is still a MAJOR question at QB. The defense may be the strength of the team. Yet the defense is still far from being a dominant unit. Three years after Parcells, Ireland, and Sparano took over the teams. The Dolphins still have a long way to go to be able to play against and beat the top tier teams in the NFL. In fact this team may have trouble beating the lower tier teams the rest of this season. Oh well, once again the only thing we have to look forward to is to see how badly Ireland can screw up the next draft.
     
  37. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Hindsight makes this thread funny. Especially that one post early on with all the smileys.
     
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  38. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    In a way, Thigpen has already been the best fit down the stretch, if only because he has made it all the more apparent that Henne is a talented QB.

    I don't pin the loss solely on Thigpen (injuries and offensive play calls were a big issue in that game) but it's clear that Henne has much more pure passing ability than Thigpen.

    Like Cinderella sang...don't know what you've got til it's gone
     
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  39. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Which thread would that be? You referring to one of the following? Just a hunch. :shifty:




    Ya know, Slomo, I guess 23rd really told us!! I can probably speak for most of us "girls" on this forum-- I feel foolish for not heeding his wisdom. :shifty:
     
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  40. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Thanks for posting that Hugo. :knucks:

    I really hope a lot of members share your sentiments. The grass isn't any greener. Outside of Luck, it's highly doubtful that any 2011 QB draftee will come in and outplay him right away, if ever..... and Chad's closer to being a finished product than anyone who's currently playing college ball. Most of our draft gurus would probably agree with this.
     

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