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Area of hope for next year's offense (and Henne)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ToddsPhins, Dec 29, 2010.

  1. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    First off, this isn't a Homer Henne thread, so I'd really appreciate some objectivity when reading it.

    I decided to look into an extremely important aspect of a QB's success: 3rd down conversions, namely 3rd & normal (3-7 yards).
    I looked up every QB in the NFL and compared their QB ratings, average per play, TDs, INTs, and most importantly-- conversion % per ATTEMPT.

    IMO this is incredibly important b/c if a team has a great ground game, then 1st and 2nd downs should be less stressful for a QB, and one of his times to shine will come on converting these 3rd & normal downs.

    This is what I got: Henne converts 63% of his 3rd & 3-7 snaps for 1st downs with a QB rating of 119, 8.1 ave, 4 TDs, and 0 INTs. Didn't see that coming, right?!!

    What I found interesting is Chad is by far the best QB in the NFL at converting 3rd & 3-7s PER ATTEMPT.


    It breaks down as follows:

    Player....... % made.... # conversions.... QB Rating..... YPA......TD..... INT
    Henne.......... 63%............... 34............... 119.......... 8.1.......4........ 0
    Kitna............ 60%............... 18................. 72.......... 7.6.......1........ 2

    Hasselbeck ....59%............... 28..................92.......... 6.4.......1....... 0
    Rivers........... 55%............... 36............... 103...........7.7.......5........ 1
    Cassel........... 54%............... 34................. 99......... 7.9.......3........ 0
    Brady............ 54%............... 33............... 124......... 7.8.......8 ....... 0
    Garrard......... 54%............... 20................. 82......... 7.2.......2........ 2
    Hill............... 54%............... 24................ 101......... 8.4.......3........ 1
    Brees............ 52%............... 36................. 96......... 7.2.......7........ 3
    Ryan............. 52%............... 44............... 115......... 6.7......10........ 1
    Cutler............ 51%............... 21................. 86..........6.6.......3........ 2
    Fitzpatrick...... 51%............... 32............... 100..........7.5.......6.........2

    Flacco............ 48%............... 31..................81......... 7.2.......3........ 2
    Eli................. 45%............... 28................. 75......... 6.3.......6.........4
    Orton............ 43%................ 23..................46......... 5.3......2.........4
    Peyton........... 43%............... 28..................56..........5.0.......2........4
    Rodgers......... 43%............... 20................. 80......... 5.7.......4........ 2
    Big Ben.......... 43%............... 17................. 80......... 5.9...... 2........ 1
    Vick............... 42%............... 15................. 52..........6.9...... 1........ 1

    Palmer............38%.................26.................79.......... 5.2...... 4....... 2
    Freeman........ 36%................ 17................. 52.......... 4.2.......0....... 1
    Schaub.......... 37%.................22................. 72...........4.6...... 2....... 0
    Bradford........ 37%.................28................. 57.......... 4.2.......1....... 1
    Sanchez.........37%..................29................ 57...........5.3.......2........2
    Campbell....... 35%.................15.................. 58.......... 5.2.......2........2
    Smith.............34%.................13................. 62.......... 5.9.......2........2
    McNabb..........33%.................17................. 34.......... 4.6...... 1....... 3
    Favre.............32%................. 14................. 34.......... 4.5...... 2....... 6

    Chad's 119 QB rating is the 3rd best behind Cassel and Brady.

    His 8.1 ave is 2nd.

    His 4 TDs are tied for 7th.

    His 0 INTs are in a 5 way tie for 1st.

    With all categories combined, Henne, Ryan, and the Patriot putz are undeniably the best 3rd down & normal QBs in the NFL, with Rivers & Hill close behind.

    The wheels, however, fall off our bus on 3rd and 8+ (which he was in 11 more times than 3rd & 3-7) when defenses know that ALL of our slow WRs/TE/RBs need to pick up at least 8 yards to move the chains. It's one thing for our personnel to pick up 8 yards when it's 1st, 2nd, or 3rd & normal when defenses don't know what's coming, but it's entirely different when a defense is ready for it. The routes take longer to develop and/or are covered better which is why we see Henne checking down, and the result is a 5.0 yard average compared to 8.1 on 3rd & normal. We convert 63% of 3rd and 3-7s b/c we have the personnel to allow our QB to succeed in these situations. Like I've stated, the surrounding cast makes the QB (if the talent is there), not the other way around. Unfortunately, our guys who are great at picking up the short-normal yards aren't as great at picking up 8-15 yards when it's predictable, which is why Bess, Marshall, and Fasano's conversion success drop off dramatically as you get beyond 3rd & 7. At 3rd & 10+ it becomes pathetic.

    We can get a lot more production out of our offense and Henne if we can fix our Oline and get the ground game humpin. Then many of these 3rd & longs would become 3rd & normal to where the top rated QB in this situation can continue moving the chains. We can also see more improvement by getting in the personnel who provide us a chance to be effective on our horrendous 3rd & longs (a #2 TE who can get upfield and a vertical threat at WR). That way we don't have only Brain Hartline as our intermediate threat when teams are expecting longer routes etc. This should also help address our mediocre 2 minute offense by providing us better down field options when we REALLY need to pick up yards in a hurry. It's hard to run a 2 minute offense when you don't have the guys to get down field or they ALL run 4.5 or slower.

    If one of these additions (TE or WR) can double as a redzone threat, then we'll be cookin inside the 20 b/c young Henne has an 89 rating and scores TDs at the exact same clip as Brees (with the same rate of INTs, too). If we stop taking him out for the WC and our OC/HC grow some balls & stop playing for FGs, then we should see greater production here, especially as Henne gets more practice.

    Addressing all the fore-mentioned areas should at least give us an extra TD per game...... and if we can continue using motion (where Henne has an 89.1 QB rating), 3 & 4 WR sets (81 Rating), and a solid ground game that can keep him at 30 or fewer pass attempts/game (85 Rating), then I don't see why we can't be successful on offense or why Henne couldn't develop into a decent starter.

    And when we're trailing by a TD or less, Chad has a 90 Rating..... and trailing by 7-14 he has a 109 rating, so I don't buy this stuff about him not being clutch when we're behind. We should be able to take that same approach and apply it to the beginning of the game (or when we're tied or ahead) and replace this wussy conservative, 'play for a FG' mentality.

    IMO these are all some promising areas to build on regarding our offense & Henne's future here (or whatever QB comes in).

    Disclaimer: none of this is an indictment that I believe Henne has little concerns about his game. I know he has a lot to work on, but with all this understandable negativity in the air about our disappointing season, I wanted to supply something genuinely positive.
     
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  2. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    Great stuff brother.

    Great idea to look those numbers up.

    I still believe the kid has the potential to become a good QB.
    He needs a top QB coach to work with him intently this offseason and a new OC that will utilize what he's good at now while letting him develop the areas he's weak in.
     
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  3. uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

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    Surely Dan Henning deserves just as much credit?


    Just Kidding, it is awesome to actually see some positive stats regarding our phins for once. Awesome work, very impressive by Henne and somewhat surprising stuff to see.

    So this would make that Ahmad Bradshaw or Mark Ingram signing even more important than I thought originally.
     
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  4. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    To be honest, it probably would..... even though I was previously higher on bringing in a playmaker to stretch the field in order to open things up. We could probably manage upgrading both, but b/c of the dynamics of our offense, I think a stud like Bradshaw along with Mankins would be enormous for us.

    What makes us so effective is that Henne, Bess, and Marshall combine for a major weapon in the 3-7 yard range b/c of Bess's and Marshall's skill set. This is what I mean about getting the personnel to fit the schemes and why I believe that we're not successful throwing downfield.

    Seriously--- 63% conversion rate per snap. Heck, QBs are happy about a 63% completion rate w/o even adding in the conversions. That's gotta be the strength of this offense by far, so if we can keep us in more 3rd and normal, then we should be greatly improved. Adding in some chunk yardage and more big-play opportunities for an occasional quick score will go along way, too. That 8+ range is really killing us though. REALLY KILLING US. Grrrrrr.
     
  5. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Thanks CR. I tried to think of one of the best stats that can genuinely define an important aspect of a QB's play. I figured: What better than 3rd down & normal conversions when the game is on the QB? 1st down- a good ground game can pick up yards. 2nd down- a good ground game that picks up 4 yards on 1st down makes this a running down or a 4-6 yard completion. No big deal, right.

    I agree about the QB coach; I think that's gone unmentioned for some unknown reason. Like you said, and I firmly believe, the key to it all is allowing him to utilize the areas that he's good at, his strengths, which I truly feel this organization has ignored.

    You know the movies where the son dies and the parents adopt a kid, start calling the kid by their dead son's name, dress him in the stiff's clothes, and try to make him into their son even though he's nothing like him?...... that's how I feel about this regime and Henne..... and Penny is the dead son. :lol:
     
  6. uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

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    Yeah let's sure up the running game and make it our strength again. Then maybe add that downfield threat, I love the Mike Sims-Walker idea, but that seems unrealistic as receivers generally command a lot of money. We'll have to look more at how the pre draft develops before listing our options, but Titus Young really intrigues me for that position he seems like he could be a poor man's Desean Jackson, a very poor man's Desean Jackson. I think he can be had in the 4th.
     
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  7. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    If we can get the ground game chuggin along, we'll definitely need a few weapons/vertical threat to keep the safeties honest IMO. 1 WR, 1 TE should do the trick, and I believe is the consensus choice around here.

    Personally, I'd go with 2 WRs- Jacoby Jones or Sims-Walker in FA if I could and then 1 stud in the draft: Young is intriguing. I personally like Greg Little as a 3rd-4th round steal or one of the other big bodied vertical threats (Jon Baldwin, Blackmon or Hankerson) or my favorite speedy, elusive guy- Jerrel Jernigan who is like a DeSean Jackson-Steve Smith cross IMO.

    If we continue the move to more 3 WR sets, then I'd really like to get in a super stud TE if we'll only be using 1 most of the time. If we can get our backs in FA, then that would have me thinking about trading back our 1st and grab Kyle Rudolph to eventually become that every down TE beast.
     
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  8. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    When I did this (which took a few hours), I looked up every starting QB in the NFL who's played roughly 10 games or so. I typed them all up 1 below the next. I did the math to figure out each one's 3rd down conversion % per attempt..... and next to it I added their QB Rating, YPA, TDs, and INTs during 3rd and 3-7. Then I arranged them in a hierarchy from high to low. It made it easy to look at as a whole..... and when you view it, only 2 players REALLY pop out at you: Henne & Brady.
     
  9. uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

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    I actually had a chance to see Jernigan in person earlier this year and I don't know if he had an off game or what, but he just didn't look impressive at the time. No doubt he's fast, but he didn't make anyone miss (and with our secondary that is a challenge) granted it was one of his worst games on the year. That is really the only time I've watched him so my opinion is tainted, though it seems that he really is only responsible for a few big plays on an offense that is normally known for big plays. Just my two cents I haven't really looked into him as much as I should have.
     
  10. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    That's why we'll be bringing in more speed etc. Sooooooo :tongue2:
     
  11. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    YOu might need to see him play more b/c I think he's a stud. Here's his youtube highlight:
    [video=youtube;63lbmKiBWl0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63lbmKiBWl0[/video]
     
  12. uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

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    He definitely looks better there it seems like there's a good selection of solid 4th-5th round type receiver prospects this year.

    So.... is this an indictment of the offense as a whole or of Henne? I don't think that anyone has accused us of having a good offense.
     
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  13. Pariah

    Pariah Revolutionary

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    Good work on the post brother.

    I do believe being proactive at the QB position is important for whomever is running the team next season. Whether it is in the draft or in free agency/trade we need to add another potentially starting caliber QB to the roster and let Henne and the addition battle it out for the starting job.
     
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  14. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    We'll need a backup who is capable of starting, so we'll have to find a decent QB in FA (b/c I don't think they trust Thig to be THAT guy yet)..... and maybe draft a QB in the mid-late rounds to compete with Brandstater. If Henne's worthy of being the starter, then he'll prove himself as such. Tom is not to be taken lightly. IMO he could have a better future here as a #2 than Thigpen, and he's a guy who will probably push Chad pretty well.
     
  15. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    This..... embarrassingly.
     
  16. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    Actually, I did. It's been a Henne trademark since his college days. He throws many of the short to intermediate patterns very well. Add to that an offense that excels on 3rd and short, and you have a good combination. What many people - including some NFL scouts, I might add - tend to overlook is the fact that arm strength does not imply downfield passing. They see a rocket arm like Henne's and assume they are dealing with a downfield passer. The problem is, Henne has never been one. It's on all of his tape, if you actually bother to look. He is pretty good at the short to intermediate passing game. And he is pretty bad at anything beyond, because his accuracy on deep throws has been consistently off, going back all the way to Michigan.

    I'm not surprised to see Henne excel on 3rd and short. That's what I expected out of Henne. I'm also not surprised to see him suck on 3rd and long because that, too, was exactly what I expected. It's right there on five years of tape for everyone so inclined to look at. It's also the reason I think the whole "Henne had to play in a system designed for Pennington" stuff a big load of yada-yada. He hadn't. It's an argument put forth by people who, quite frankly, do not understand that there's no causation between arm strength and downfield passing ability at all.
     
  17. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    OK.... I've finished re-crunching all the stats again. They're in the original post. Someone owes me a beer. :shifty:
     
  18. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    I think Hennes problem is that he is not playing with confinence.He at times either is unsure of himself and what is going on around him.Mabey he can be coached to improve his performance but as of late he looks kinda clueless in pressue situations.
     
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  19. Dansar

    Dansar Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Great Post Todd!

    I think if you combine this with the strength of schedule and the blitzing defences we faced you can see why we struggled (turnovers). This combined with our patch work offensive line says it all. Makes you wonder how much better we would have been last year with Marshall and the Orca's.

    The way I see it is there are very few on this board that want to stick with Henne, but we have to ask ourselves what is more acheivable/realistic for next year. Do we mortgage our future and get a QB at the expense of our other offensive needs and how likely is it that we get a QB that will flourish in 3rd and long with no running game. Not going to happen unless we are looking at 3 years of mediocrity as we rebuild and by that time it will be time to rebuild the defence as we mortgaged all our draft picks to get Luck. Makes much more sense to me to put Henne in a position that he can handle and surprisingly is one of the best at, who would have thought!

    I am not saying do not get a QB just do not put as a priority over our other needs.

    My wish list.

    Fire Sparano he is a good coach for players but way to conservative to ever win the big one. He took alot of risk in 2008 but somehow dropped a ball over the last two years. He killed our Offensive Line, traded our speed for nothing, yes Ginn was a bust as a starter but defences had to respect his speed and he was always a threat to bust a kick off. I also beleive he handcuffed Henning to the point he could not be effective with his field goal mentality. Wanny ball revisited!!!

    Fix the Offensive Line.
    Stud TE
    Speed WR/Kick returner
    RB with speed that can take it to the house, could be Sheets have not seen enough yet. I beleive Ronnie and Ricky are fine with a effective OL.

    On defence I feel we are in pretty good shape, we get Odrick back along with a few others and Nolan is much more familiar with what he has.

    Todd you are the man!!
     
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  20. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I agree a big arm doesn't necessarily "imply" downfield passing, but there's no denying that downfield passing exists & is needed, and as such, a big arm is an asset over a lollipop. Henne has shown IMO that he CAN make downfield throws, that he doesn't "suck at it", and the strength of his arm has in fact helped him on these throws. Contrary to your argument, his arm does allow him to squeeze the ball into smaller windows downfield as he's proved many times in his 2 years here.

    I'm trying to understand your logic when saying that Henne is pretty good in short-intermediate throws but then say you can understand that he sucks on 3rd and long. So what distance do you feel "intermediate" throws make up? Would 8-12 yards not be considered an intermediate throw?

    It doesn't surprise me that the offense has trouble in 3rd & long b/c of the personnel, not the QB. I don't buy it that Henne can be amazing up to 7 yards and then just falls apart at 8+ b/c the "throw is too far downfield" for him. Sorry, but IMO that's on the personnel being suited for shorter routes. If you're asking 4 guys to get 8+ yards who run a 4.5, 4.55, 4.6, and a 4.82 while the defense knows it's coming, then you're gonna run into problems no matter who the QB is.
     
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  21. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Not sure I agree with this either. Example: Lets say you have 2 guys who are making a throw 20-25 yards down the sideline with a corner underneath and a safety over top who has good closing speed. Which QB has the greater ability of completing the pass if the accuracy is equal?
     
  22. NorFlaFin

    NorFlaFin Active Member

    3rd & 3-7 yards is considered normal?

    Definitely food for thought
     
  23. gafinfan

    gafinfan gunner Club Member

    I agree with V and you must remember comparisons can be used to show whatever you want it to show. You started with Henne, a great post BTW, against everyone which is fair. Picking something out of thin air is nothing more than wishful thinking imho.

    Points to consider:
    1. Henne was picked by this staff to QB this system
    2. Pennington fits this system to a T
    3. System calls for an early down the field throw to loosen up the defense
    4. So that running game can take over and win the game
    5. Staff saw in Henne a Penny type game manager with great short/intermediate game

    Conclusion:
    We can win games with Henne IF he is behind a great o-line with a good running game and he is not asked to carry the team. He must have both SPACE and TIME to step into his throws. A strong Center is paramount to his success. Example: First three quarters of the Lions game with Richie as his Center.
    I would submit to you that we saw everything good about Chad Henne during that time. I would also submit that being that good in that situation is not good enough to win a SuperBowl. Chad Henne, like Chad Pennington, is good just not good enough imho.

    Had to come back and add one more point to consider:
    We gave up speed to gain possession in our recievers, Ginn for Marshall. Why?
    Without a doubt, most here wanted to keep Ginn, if only for speed on the outside and questioned why they would just give it away. Because this staff fully believed that Hartline could be that once or twice a game down field threat thus had/have no need for speed.

    I hope with all my being that Jeff Ireland, now that Tuna fish is gone will revert to a more balanced player draft and mix a little speed in with those big guys cause we really need it. That is of course if we get a Damn good OC to call the shots!!
     
  24. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Historically, a QB's performance on third down is the best predictor of future success. People keep mentioning the TD/INT ratios but those tend to be more dependent of the offense and not as much on the QB's talent. I looked at the numbers for Henne back on Dec. 10th. At that point Henne was 14th overall on third down passes (all distances), with a QBR of 88.2. I don't recall the exact numbers, but Henne was also very good against the blitz. His numbers have gone down against the blitz since his knee injury, however, and now his rating is about 79.1 against the blitz. That's still not horrible, but I believe before the knee injury his rating was over 100. That's why I never understood why Henning kept insisting on using max protect and limited receivers when it was so obvious that his QB played the best when blitzed and when he had multiple receiving options.
     
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  25. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Not really. The 2008 second round QB pick was a tossup between Henne and Brohm. If Brohm was there, we'd have him. Brohm got picked right before us so we got Henne. There were supposedly 4 legit QB's in the 2008 draft: Ryan, Flacco, Brohm and Henne. Under them was John David Booty and others. We wanted one of those 4 with Jake Long and the only one who got to us happened to be Chad Henne. He was the best QB left so there wasn't even the choice and evaluation you purport to have happened.
     
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  26. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    My understanding was the max protect was Henne's call.

    I do agree that there are positives in Henne's game. I would like to see him succeed. His performance on third downs is something that does give hope that he can improve as a quarterback.
     
  27. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    I agree iwth you.... if Henning called for more max protect after Henne got hurt, then one can only assume that he was trying to protect his quarterback from getting injured again. That his qb gave the team the best chance of winning (as opposed to Ramsay or Thigpen at the time). That was first on his mind, not getting big plays against the blitz. Strange for an OC to think that way... makes me think the directive came down from Sparano himself. Pressure on Sparano to win and not necessarily evaluate. Certainly not surprising given the circumstances

    BTW, excellent post Todd. Good discussion. I thought Henne would rank pretty high on the list... didn't think he'd be that high. This offense was built around the running game and converting manageable third down situations. Well, got the third down part right, we do convert at a high rate... problem is, we weren't in that situations more than the third and long (8 yards or more). Running game lacked, passing on first downs likely lacked (curious what Henne's stats are on first down) and ultimately protecting the quarterback lacked. Sparano drew up a game plan, it didn't work.
     
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  28. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well I have a less positive take on Chad Henne:

    Chad had success in the 3 wide/shotgun/no huddle simply because it hides his weaknesses, with more Wr's in the play the defense has a harder time following his eyes to the play, that coupled with the no huddle limiting defensive substitutions means he can exploit a mismatch in coverage far more easily.

    I also think Henne was done no favors in coupling Marshall with Bess as they both essentially serve the same function and neither has the speed to get on top of a defense consistently.
     
  29. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    Where did you get that 3rd and 7 was the norm?
     
  30. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    something genuinely positive? cut your loses & move on, its over
     
  31. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    In most systems the QB can adjust the blocking and sometimes have a back stay in, but he can't send more players out and he doesn't generally control the number of WRs he has available. That's mostly controlled by the personnel package that was sent in. So if Henning sends in a package with two WRs, Henne is stuck with that.
     
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  32. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I don't see that as a negative. Every QB has weaknesses, a good OC minimizes those.

    And I agree that this offense was poorly matched in terms of talent. The skill sets of the guys we have don't complement each other.
     
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  33. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    What does that have to do with max protect?

    What is the percentage of plays in the NFL where teams use 2 wide receivers? From what I have seen it is still the majority, however that isn't from a statistical basis.
     
  34. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I do not agree. his skill set is short bullet passes. he does his best when he can throw short bullet passes. That means you need quick wide receivers who can get open quickly.
     
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  35. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    A very good post to start the topic. Thanks for the research and the time/effort put into that. Now, could you please provide links and citations? I kid. I only say that because some other posters murdered a guy for not providing a link to some quotes. This really is good stuff--although it doesn't discuss the concerns and my reasoning for why I don't believe Chad Henne should be our starting QB next year--or not shouldn't be, but looked at as the guy next year.

    A question I have for you is that you say "IMO Henne has shown that he CAN make those downfield throws". What is the definition of downfield for you? I think he does a very nice job at those deep in's and out's routes. He's shown that he can make those back shoulder fade throws at times as well. However, for any throw over 40 yards, he has shown no propensity to be able to complete those throws. Again, going back to Vendigo's reply, which I completely agree with, he's shown no accuracy in college or the NFL to make those. From my recollection, I can only think of 4--the Ginn TD vs. Jets, the Hartline catch vs. Titans, the deep ball to Marshall vs. the Vikings, and the deep ball to Marshall vs. the Jets. Yet, we seem to throw those passes at least twice a game. He's missed those chances all this year. I don't think he has that ability, because he doesn't have that accuracy.

    I think this idea that because a QB has a strong arm, he's a downfield passer and because a WR has a slow 40 time he can't be a good down the field threat, holds no water for me.

    I think the reason why we struggle in those 8+ situations is because a myriad of reasons, which the fact our WRs run average 40 teams are the least of the problem. I think our coordinator runs the same darn plays. I think the offensive line struggles when it's asked to protect longer, which longer routes would indicate. I think Chad Henne has a difficult time throwing into zone coverage and anticipating those throws. Teams have blitzed much less against us and when they do they back it up with zone coverage--this has been a large struggle for Chad Henne.

    This idea that guys who run those 40 times can't be successful intermediate/downfield (10+ yards) isn't true because Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Derrick Mason, Jerricho Cotchery, Kenny Britt, Sidney Rice, T.J Houshmanzadeh, Terrell Owens, Stevie Johnson, Hines Ward, Brandon Lloyd, Vincent Jackson, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Mike Williams (Bucs), Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall and many more past and present would disagree with you that is the case. It's about good routes, going up and getting the ball, being smart (when to read coverage and dictate what route should be ran), being able to beat man coverage and about a QB that can give him the ball. I'm not saying a 40 time is meaningless, but it's about speed with pads on and on the field speed.

    This reinforces to me that Chad Henne has to be put into perfect situations, or situations so advantageous for success, to be successful. I want a QB, when called on to win a game for you, he can do it. Chad Henne hasn't shown that ability since beating the Jets in his second start of his career.
     
  36. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well it is a negative in the sense that Henne can operate the most efficiently in a dumbed down offensive system, now if Sparano and Co are that committed to Henne, then by all means run that style of offense, but it is a factor and a admittance that Henne is NOT a drop back/pocket passer..which is fine but seems unlikely knowing how stubborn this staff can be.

    They want it the way they want it fit in or get out..end of story.
     
  37. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Thats a pretty big caveat.
     
  38. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Mel Kiper today, on Henne. Just food for thought:

    What is your take on Henne?

    Mel Kiper (1:41 PM)


    Same as I thought coming out of Michigan. Wildy inconsistent. Makes bad decisions. Can throw the ball through a mountain. He has games where he looks like he can be the answer and others where you ask why did they take this guy. That's why I said at the time that they should have taken Matt Ryan.
     
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  39. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    The Marshall deep ball against the Jets was overthrown and Marshall had to make an amazing leap to get it. On the Hartline flea-flicker, the ball was underthrown and Hartline had to severely adjust his stride in order to make the catch. Both of those were touchdowns if they hit (among other missed passes) and both times the receivers had to make heavy adjustments to pull them in.

    Technically, Henne did hit Ginn twice on deep balls last year, but the second was called back due to a penalty. Overall though, Henne is just not good at the deep ball.
     
  40. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Not in most passing situations. Most commonly the QB has at least three options. We usually use just two and rely on the play action fake to create the space, but nobody has bought that fake all season. In that situation any QB is more likely than not to fail.
     
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  41. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Great post BTW. Agree very much about the Center position. It was completely apparent that our entire dynamics changed once Richie moved away from Center. I don't think we necessarily needed to "exchange" Ginn for Marshall. I thought they could've played together, but I guess this regime didn't.

    I appreciate the post compliment, but to be fair, I didn't pick out something from thin air. I used one of the most important stats in football in a specific situation. 3rd & 3-7 is extremely important IMO, b/c if you're ground game is working, then this down and distance is deciding whether or not you're continuing to move the chains to: 1. Eat up time of possession. 2. Give yourself a chance to score. With a strong ground game, I can't really think of a more important stat for a QB than this TBH.

    I disagree about the "V" thing. It has nothing to do with twisting something to support an argument. It's a fact that arm strength is an asset in the NFL. I'm not sure this is debatable. Are you saying that Penny wouldn't be a more successful QB and have greater downfield "ability" if he had a stronger arm?

    As a 2nd year starter, I wouldn't expect his "good performance" to be super bowl caliber yet either.

    I'd submit that if Henne ends up like Pennington, then that's a good thing b/c a veteran Penny with an arm is a dangerous QB. Just sayin. :tongue2:
     
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