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Could Henne excel in a better offensive system?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by SCall13, Dec 27, 2010.

  1. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Really? That's the only way to get defenses out of cover 2? :glare:

    So a good ground game, a vertical threat, and a seam busting TE won't help do it?
     
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  2. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Sending more receivers out will just magnify Henne's inability to avoid the rush and keep his eyes downfield. Its usually tuck and run once Henne senses any pressure. I also havent seen the ball placement from Henne to have any confidence in him dropping a pass in between two defenders playing zone.

    So no, I don't think any of those things would force a defense into man coverage. They would just lead to more negative plays.

    A great running game will. But in today's NFL there are still plenty of situations where the defense can play zone because the down and distance dictates it.
     
  3. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Henne would definitely seem like a better player when he has a team that has actual CHEMISTRY.

    I'm tired of the default argument that Henne should be good b/c he has Marshall & Bess. What about the other 8 guys on the field? I guess Henne, Marshall, and Bess should be able to do it ALL ON THEIR OWN against quality NFL defenses. That's absurd!

    What about the injury to Long? How about missing our RT? How about the mess at the interior Oline? Is there any chemisty or cohesiveness there? NO!!!!

    How about the ground game? Is there any consistency there? NO!!!!!!!

    How about the other WRs? Any possibility of chemistry with 2 undrafted, inconsistent rookies and a guy fresh off the street? NO!!

    How about TE? Any chemistry with a guy who hadn't caught a pass all season? NO!!!

    How about the coaching? Has that been stellar? No.

    Can an offense maintain effectiveness by throwing to the same 2 targets all game long b/c the others aren't trustworthy? NO!!

    Can a QB have chemistry with a receiving unit when there's only 1 WR or TE on the field whom he's played more than 1 season with? Not likely. (With Hart & Fasano out, Bess is the ONLY receiving target with more than a season's experience with Henne.)

    Henne has 3 guys on the team at TE/WR whom he played with last year (Bess, Fasano, Hartline). 2 guys whom he had chemistry with were traded (Ginn & Camarillo) and replaced by undrafted rookies and Marshall whom he had no previous experience with.


    So many people disregard all of the above as if it has little impact on a QB's or team's success. That's not fair. Conditions like these have already affected one of the best QBs in NFL history. When the Colts lost Dallas Clark & Austin Collie (with an inconsistent line), Manning looked as questionable in his slew of losses and massive INTs as Henne has this year.

    Manning still had Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, but that clearly was NOT enough.... just as Marshall and Bess alone are NOT enough. Peyton had no chemistry with the other guys, and as such, Manning was missing his targets left and right. He threw 13 INTs in 5 games (QB ratings of 67, 69, 57, 75) with 4 losses b/c of this lack of chemistry and inexperience at the skill positions. If a seasoned, experienced, elite pro like Manning can have major problems, then how can anyone expect Henne to perform any better than Peyton under similar circumstances? How can a QB truly develop in this kind of situation?

    If ANYONE can explain to me how Peyton Manning can have problems under these circumstances but Henne isn't allowed to, then I'll gladly jump on the can Henne bandwagon.
     
  4. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    this was my scouting report on henne from april of 2008. i still think the best system for him is one where there is a dominant running game like we had last year or 2008. so in essence our system is the best system for him but the problem was the offensive line being unable to run block. i never saw him as a peyton manning or marino type that could just throw it at will

    2) QB Chad Henne 6’2 7/8” 230 4.96 - Someday we will probably know what the original strategy regarding QB was in this year’s draft. Right now I don’t think we do. Obviously we showed interest in Henne. But what if Flacco was still available? Brohm was probably not in consideration but might have been a fallback position if Henne and Flacco were both gone by the time 32 rolled around. The feeling is that Henne would’ve been the choice at 32 until Merling became available. Then as luck would have it, Henne was still around by the time our second pick in the second round was up. Clearly the football gods were smiling upon Parcells and company day one.

    Henne is slightly on the short side but is solidly built. He is thick bodied. He is extremely smart and possesses a strong arm that can make every throw. He throws a tight spiral and can get the deep pass out on a rope. He has nice touch and can anticipate routes nicely. He has a quick release. He has shown good leadership qualities and has excellent intangibles as evidenced by being a four year starter for QB machine Michigan. He is tough physically and mentally having played through a separated shoulder.

    Henne unfortunately doesn’t feel pressure and will probably always take unnecessary sacks. He seems to need a perfect pocket in front of him so that he can step into his throws. Pocket mobility is poor to average and he is not good at improvising on the move when the pocket collapses. His accuracy is inconsistent and he has a tendency to sail the ball on occasion which will lead to unnecessary interceptions in the pros. He takes too long to decide on who to throw too and has a tendency to lock on his receivers. His footwork is poor.

    A lot of Henne’s flaws can be improved under the tutelage of Dolphins QB Coach David Lee but its probably too much to ask him to start his rookie season. He averaged approximately 200 yds passing pergame with a 60% completion average. 22 TDs and 8 ints over the course of a 13 game season was basically what he produced at Michigan every year approximately.

    A classic pocket passer in the mold of Drew Bledsoe, Henne landed in a perfect system for him. A run dominated, play action passing attack that will emphasize a huge offensive line will give him a chance to be successful in Miami. I doubt there are more than ten teams on which Henne could be successful but Miami is definitely one of them. The key to his success will be his accuracy. If he can improve his accuracy after a year or two of David Lee’s tutelage he should be able to thrive in this system.

    Bottom line he is never going to be great but with hard work on his part he could become a poor man’s Bledsoe or Simms

    Grade B- ( fits the system but how much better is he than McCown and Beck?)

    http://forums.thephins.com/showthread.php?7427-A-review-of-Our-Newest-Dolphins&highlight=hilliard

    then again i thought phillip merling might become the steal of the draft so what do i know lol
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2010
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  5. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    1) Sparano says Henning is doing a tremendous job too, so take it with a grain of salt. He can't denigrate his players openly, especially if they are ALREADY being told they "SUCK" by fans. If Henne is truly bad right now, in Tony's opinion, should Sparano say so in a press conference?He needs to lead and hope Henne improves, I would think. Job place politics, public relations, team motivation and diplomacy are always at play in press conference.

    2) I happen to agree with Stringer, based on watching the games, that Henne stares down receivers like he is eye-raping them. We may not agree on that, but our perception differing from yours doesn't make us wrong. I am not, actually, saying you are wrong either. It's perception.

    3) To trundle out a batch of scouting reports, I'll add these:


    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/2008/draft/players/21639.html


    http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/565649/nfl_draft_prospect_will_michigans_chad_pg2.html?cat=14



    http://walterfootball.com/pro2008chenne.php



    http://www.mymockdraft.com/1038/PlayerDetail.aspx


    Please understand, I am not saying you are wrong. But neither are Stringer and I. Nor all the other people who see this as a long-standing issue of Chad's. You may focus on other aspects of Chad's game that we miss.

    Anyways, I spent a long time re-reading a LOT of Chad henne scouting reports and the truth is, he has progressed a bit on some of his issues (touch passes have improved, for example. he also DOES go through progressions sometimes now, but not consistently enough imo, and not at the right speed to match the speed the play is developing at). I also noticed, though, that many of the issues that still concern me about him today are well documented through four years of over 45 college games. Add that to almost 30 NFL games and I think you have a pretty fair sense of someone's chronic problems.

    Essentially, he is who we think he is at this point, and he may change a BIT from here, but I doubt he transforms dramatically.

    I am sure there are systems in which his weaknesses would be less of a problem, and his strengths better utilized. I have to, unfortunately, agree with Dupree here that he doesn't look like he'll ever be elite. Too many issues that are taking way too long to improve, or not improving noticeably far outweigh the issues he has improved.
     
  6. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Gotchya..... so his 3 WR sets aren't actually his strong points?
    1 TE: 84.9 QB rating.... 61.5%.... 7.1 ave..... 9 TDs...... 6 INTs.
    2 TE: 50.8 QB rating.... 57.9%.... 6.1 ave..... 2 TDs...... 5 INTs.

    3 WR: 84.6 QB Rating.... 65%.... 7.4 ave.... 6 TDs.... 6 INTs.
    2 WR: 69.8 QB rating..... 62%.... 7.3 ave.... 3 TDs.... 7 INTs. You were saying?

    Using motion (which we did 290 times): 89.4 QB rating.... 63.1%.... 7.4 ave..... 11 TDs..... 6 INTs.
    No motion (which we did 139 times): 52.8 QB rating........ 59%....... 5.8 ave.....3 TDs.......10 INTs.

    (see any patterns where Henne succeeds more than others to where he actually looks ok for a 2nd year player?)


    And Henne usually tucks and runs during 2 WR sets when defenses can key in on stopping Marshall & Bess b/c there's little threat posed from the TE or RB position.

    He's a 60+ % passer. He has plenty enough ability and talent to get the ball downfield effectively if he has the personnel who can actually get downfield. 1 player who runs a 4.5 and has to rely on faking a defender does not count. Sparano & Henning have clearly stated that team speed is a problem in this regard, as is a lack of playmakers who can attack a defense.

    Does anyone feel that Henne enjoys only throwing 12 freaking passes of 30+ yards all season with that cannon of his? I don't. This is b/c of our personnel, not b/c Chad prefers to not throw deep.
     
  7. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Huh?

    All you need to do is post a clip of Henne avoiding the rush and keeping his eyes down field. Its not really that complicated. You can try to mask it in stats that aren't related, but the tape doesnt lie.
     
  8. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    oops. deleting a repost.
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2010
  9. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    Great post.

    However, i've never once said that Henne would be "elite". I've never said he wouldn't be either, though. However, "elite" QB's aren't that common. And in more times than not, QB's become elite not only because of their ability, but their teams ability to play towards their strengths and away from their faults. With some elite QB's the system is the main factor.

    All I've ever written is that I think Henne should be given more time with a better OC and running game. Throw in the fact that he has not played a lot with these WR's, this offseason may do wonders, I have to give him next season. With just those things, which I believe to be reasonable requests, I think he'd be a pretty good QB.
     
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  10. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    i think he has next offseason to show improvement. i dont think they can waste another season hoping he improves. i cant imagine him not having to compete for the starting job with some vet next season so he'll have to prove that he's better. hopefully we fix our running game. i think he can be a decent QB if he has a strong running game in front of him that can take the pressure off
     
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  11. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    It is such a pleasure to read things that make absolutely perfect sense. I ALWAYS enjoy your posts. Even when you are wrong, you are wrong in a convincing manner.

    In this case you are very right.
     
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  12. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    I agree. I've said that I would love to get a QB like Kolb. Kolb would push Henne to get better. Hell, at this point maybe even Palmer or McNabb. Just someone who has played (or has the ability to once again play) at a high level and likes to wing it. Unlike Pennington.... I think Henne could learn a lot in the offseason with guys like this.
     
  13. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    To get Kolb, by the amount he would cost, he would have to come in and be the starter.

    Palmer might be available for cheap.
     
  14. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    I can see where you are coming from. Henne is not being seen in his best light, surely. And I agree he could be a servicable QB in some system. I think we expect too much (thanks Dan Marino) too soon, at times.

    Your reasonable requests are falling on the ears of fans who are in a deeply upset emotional reaction to Henne right now. Painful losses and mistakes by a QB will make it hard to discuss him dispassionately.

    I, honestly, don't know if I could handle watching Henne go and grow through another season. It's pretty horrifically painful at times. lol.

    It's a shame to waste his upside, though.

    Whatever happens, I'll be tuned in.
     
  15. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Okay, this is an interesting question to me. How much is a 'good price' for us to pay for Kolb and how much would be 'too much'? I mean in terms of picks and players.

    He'd certainly be cheaper than going after Luck at #1. That trade-up would cost us something like a pair of first rounders and Cam Wake.
     
  16. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    Not necessarily. Henne isn't getting much money next season.(I think I've read $500K) If Kolb would agree to say, a 1-2 year deal (with starter money I agree) I think it could be done. Kolb gets his money with the understanding that it's up to him to earn the starting role. He doesn't have that option right now in Philly. Henne, knowing that next season may be his last chance to get that starter money, is told it's up to him to earn the starting role. if Kolb wins out, fine, extend his contract and keep Henne around for 2nd string. If Henne gets it, let him sign a contract extention at the end of the season and try to either trade Kolb or keep him as a back up.
     
  17. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    Well, there are many NFL teams who need a QB. I think a few would like to go after Kolb. From what I've seen of the guy I think he'll play well in this league, for someone.

    I'm not sure what "too much" would be. Maybe someone more informed on salaries, trade positions etc could answer that question.
     
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  18. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    How about how the coaches use him in this conservative offense? That doesn't affect him? Look at his stats when we're in "less conservative" situations.

    When we're trailing games and can't be as conservative, Henne is: 90.6 QB rating..... 68.5%..... 7.5 ave..... 9 TDs...... 7 INTs. (keep in mind 2 of those INTs came from Bess's slip and Shuler stopping his route).

    People say Henne isn't clutch, but his numbers show that when we're trailing is when he's actually at his best.


    -Ryan, Flacco, & Freeman (and Peyton, Rodgers, Rivers, Cassel, Roethlisberger, Cutler, & Schaub) also have ratings in the 90s when trailing.

    -Henne is higher than Orton, Palmer, Fitzpatrick, Campbell, Hill, Kitna, Garrard, Eli, Brees, and almost 30 points higher than Bradford & 15 ponts higher than Sanchez. (Only 2 player, Brady & Vick, have ratings over a 100 when trailing a game.

    -When trailing by 8-14 points, Henne's 109 rating is 4th in the league behind Flacco's 113 and Rivers & Peyton's 112. Chad's higher than Brady and 40 points higher than Brees, 55 pts > Roethlisberger, 36 pts > Cassel, 59 pts > Fitzpatrick, 60 pts > Bradford.

    There's obviously talent here to work with. It would seem to me based on the stats above that this regime does not use Henne properly 100% of the time. Maybe, just MAYBE, it's possible that, if this regimes changes it's conservative approach and develops a ground game that can effectively move that ball, Henne could very well become a 90 rated passer when we're also tied or ahead, too rather than only when we're trailing a game. :dunno:
     
  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Kolb is under contract with the Eagles and to trade for him will cost a decent amount. I could be wrong, however I do not think the Eagles will let him go for next year's 2nd round pick. It will probably be first round pick or nothing, maybe a trade down from a first to second. It will be an expensive trade.

    If Miami trades for Kolb the job will be Kolb's.
     
  20. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    I think if you make a deal to bring in Kolb (last I heard was it was going to take two first rounders BTW), you would almost have to anoint him as your starter. Maybe I'm wrong on that, but the bigger issue (for me anyway) is the price tag. That's an awful steep price for a QB that doesn't have much of a track record in the NFL. And, I want nothing to do with McNabb. He sucks. Philly knew exactly what they were doing when they made the trade to a divisional rival. Palmer on the other hand is intriguing. And, he might be just what we need in the way of a veteran presence that could compete with as well as help mentor Henne.

    As to the question posed by the OP...my hope is we will all find out the answer next season. Because, I really want to see what Henne can do with a different HC/OC, and possibly in a different system.
     
  21. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Henne would also look better stat wise and have more TD production if we did NOT take him out for the WC in the redzone or didn't play for SO MANY freakin FGs b/c he has an 89 RATING with 10 TDs to 2 INTs inside the 20. And we wonder why he has more INTs than TDs? We take away his opportunities inside the 20.

    22% of his passes in the redzone go for TDs (same as Brees). Rodgers, Rivers, & Ryan throw TDs in 25 % of their attempts. Chad has more TDs per attempt in thre redzone than Orton, 8% more than Bradford, 7% more than Roethlisberger, 10% more than Sanchez, and 4% more than Vick.

    Bradford has 18 total TDs on the season to Henne's 15 which looks better on paper...... but in the redzone Bradford has 81 attempts and 12 TDs. B/c Miami subs in the WC and plays for FGs, Henne only has 46 attempts, however he has 10 TDs. Chad has thrown as nearly as many TDs as Bradford but in almost half the attempts.

    Brees has an 89 rating in the redzone (same as Henne). He also throws as many TDs & INTs per attempt as Henne. However Brees has a much better overall QB rating and significantly more total TDs b/c he's not taken out in the redzone and the Saints dont sub in the WC.

    Brees: 21 TDs on 93 attempts in the redzone.
    Henne: 10 TDs on 46 attempts.

    If we extrapolated Henne's redzone numbers based on Brees's # of attempts (93), then Chad would have a total of 25 TDs to 20 INTs, and his passer rating would go up significantly b/c of it..... and would put him comparable to Eli Manning this season.
     
  22. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    So when his 2 receivers and 1 rookie FA TE are covered, it's better to just take the sack?
     
  23. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    thx bpk. i feel the same way about your posts
     
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  24. Shamboubou

    Shamboubou Well-Known Member

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    You know I posed this same question a week or so ago. I really believed that Henne could be a good QB in a better system. Something with routes that are intended to go longer than 7 yards. I still think we could see a lot of improvement from him in that type of system and really I would like to see him be able to give it a try another year.

    My one fear with him, or the one thing that I hate to see from his is that as soon as somebody gets near him he panics and tucks and runs or takes his eyes off the field. I mean our O-Line has been super banged up this year, even Long has struggled with his injury. I just wish we could see him more comfortable under pressure because those are the types of throws that create big plays. Where you can make the DB cover the reciever for more than 3 seconds. Thats gives the defense the opportunity to get confused or lose track of somebody.

    All year I have called Henne "checkdown Chad". He seems to hit the checkdown to quick even when he has the protection. Lets be honest how many checkdowns really had an impact this year?? None that I can remember. How many TD's did Polite score coming out of the backfield?? I just think thats a stupid route, keep that guy in let him block and give that QB and WR's more time to get open and see the guy.

    As you can probably tell by my post I'm really torn. I just dont know who is better that we can get?? I guess McNabb or something, but anybody else your going to have to deal with the Rookie blues again beause were not going to get a Bradford or a rookie that is ready to come in and start with our draft position.
     
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  25. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    no :no: no & no
     
  26. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Get a room!
     
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  27. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    I'm so numb to the Henne debate now. I really don't know what to think. I came into this season very high on him, thought he showed some improvements as the year went on but never really took that next step.

    The most frustrating thing to me with Henne was that last year when he was a first year starting QB, the most impressive thing I saw in him was late in games and under pressure, he was so calm and collected and performed well. The big 4th quarter comeback to beat the Jets, rallying the team downfield to beat Tampa, ditto with New England in a BIG game, and the huge 4th quarter comeback in Tennessee. I thought he had "IT". Yet, this season, he's looked so flustered under pressure and just melts. I don't know what the hell happened to him.

    It's hard to argue though that Henne isn't getting much help at all. The playcalling is predictable and the weapons aren't great, even though we have 2 real good receivers. Like other have said, with the flashes he's shown, I would love to see him get a chance with a new system and some guys with speed who can make big time plays.
     
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  28. bcfinfan

    bcfinfan New Member

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    I think Henne has a chance to be a good qb in the nfl but he needs help. He needs better players around him, most experienced qb's will struggle without a running game or a speed wr.
    The main thing he needs though is better coaching. Think about it, if your boss is a moron and constantly has you questioning what he's doing then you won't be mentally sharp. And an nfl qb needs to be mentally at the top of his game on game day otherwise you'll make mistakes when normally you wouldn't. Sparano is a game day waterhead, unable to make quick correct decisions in the heat of battle and that ineptitude not only affects the qb but trickles down thru the whole team. Hence meltdowns late in games when they are seemingly in hand.
     
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  29. R&R_Express

    R&R_Express New Member

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    because henne himself is quite vanilla.... nothing flashy, still wont help his touch passes and his decision making has been poor... and everytime he gets any kind of pressure he looks to run the ball instead of scramble and keep eyes down the field.

    but i do think an OC (different offense) change wont hurt him
     
  30. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    He cant do worse!!!!!
     
  31. texasPHINSfan

    texasPHINSfan New Member

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    Wat?
     
  32. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    no :no: no & no
    and
    please, no more excuses

    the henne is a bust

    its time to get over the man-crush
    & move on for the good of the team
    we'll contend after we rebuild the offense
    it is what it is, nothing more
     
  33. finfaninilinois

    finfaninilinois Active Member

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    hey Mr. stat man i dont see anywhere in there the number of games we won where Henne is so much better than all those other qb's in the 4th quarter - i would venture a quess of probably 0
     

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