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Henne vs Sanchez: Dropped Interceptions

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by GARDENHEAD, Dec 30, 2010.

  1. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Oh, no! Not another Henne vs. Sanchez thread. Oh yes, but this one is different.

    The Football Outsiders have people who watch every game and chart unconventional stats such as dropped interceptions, you know the Sean Smith Special. Well, through 14 games, Mark Sanchez has 13 dropped INTs and 13 actual INTs. Chad Henne has only 1 dropped INT and 18 actual INTs.

    Of course, I truly believe both these guys will never amount to anything more than mediocre QBs, but if our QB sucks, I need some quantifiable stat to show that Sanchez is more lucky than good. Regression to the mean is a *****.

    Link: http://footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2010/fo-mailbag-dropped-interceptions
     
  2. Muck

    Muck Throwback Uniform Crusader Retired Administrator

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    How about the INT that was clearly dropped yet awarded to James Harrison?

    Is that considered an actual INT? Because it was really a dropped INT.

    I fear the breakdown sheet will implode upon such circular logic. :lol:

    Anyway, I'd been saying as much when Sanchez was on his godly 8-0 TD/INT streak. It was as if he was throwing at Mr. Smith every week. ;)

    That said, it seems like Henne has thrown more than one 'almost' this season.
     
  3. dolfan87

    dolfan87 Super Moderator Luxury Box

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    So if Sanchez had Henne's luck, he would have 25 picks already this year, and the Jets would probably be in fourth place in the AFC East. Or we could go the other way, if Henne had Sanchez's luck, he would have 9 picks, and we would be in the playoffs.

    LOL
     
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  4. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If the Harrison INT was deemed an INT by the league, then the FO staff called it an actual INT. I don't recall very many almost INTs by Henne this year. I really like the Football Outsiders. They do a great job with their game-charting. Should be interesting to see these stats for all 16 games.
     
  5. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    This is only through week 14 as well, it could very well be higher for Sanchez!
     
  6. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    ....and henne.
     
  7. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    This is the proverbial BABIP (Batting Avg. on Balls in Play) stat, only applied to the NFL. Sanchez has definitely been more lucky than good this year, whereas Henne has not. If you wanna take it a step further beyond the Harrison INT, there's the Fasano INT at the end of the Jets game, which meant nothing since it was TD or bust, and there's also the Hartline INT against the Ravens where Brian fell down, and the Pick 6 last week where Bess fell down. There's also the Marshall INT against the Patriots where it appeared Marshall just stopped on the route, and the Browns INT batted at the line that somehow fell into the hands of the defender.

    I better stop though, all these excuses make me look like a Henne defender.
     
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  8. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    Yes, but Sanchez has been the beneficiary of more dropped INTs than I can remember. I'm just focusing on him because Henne v Sanchez isn't going to go anywhere. It's just going to go around and around.
     
  9. Disciple

    Disciple Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I recall two from the GB game alone. One off a DB and one off of a LB.

    I wonder what they deem catchable, because as many as Smith has dropped, a good few of those would have simply been amazing catches, and shouldn't count as a dropped INT.
     
  10. Da 'Fins

    Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    I'm on board with ANYTHING that criticizes the incredibly over-rated, over-hyped, over-publicized Mark Sanchez. He is arguably the most over-rated, media-hyped QB in NFL history.
     
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  11. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    True, Nathan Vasher had a tough chance that almost picked off last week as well, although I wouldn't call it routine by any stretch. There was also a near pick on the Bess TD last week. I think that went right off the defenders hands.
     
  12. Frayser

    Frayser Barstool Philosopher

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    If Mark Sanchez is more lucky than Chad Henne, this is something that Jeff Ireland should have figured out when he was scouting the two players! Fire him!
     
  13. frozenfin

    frozenfin Well-Known Member

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    That honor belongs to Joe Namath.
     
  14. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    Joe Namath.

    Funny that they're both Jets....
     
  15. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    Beat me to it! lol
     
  16. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.These two will be lucky if they ever are any good.
     
  17. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    Henne had two dropped ints in the first half of last weeks game alone. Not to bash Henne but more to question what the heck these guys are looking at?
     
  18. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    I'm pretty sure it said right in the OP that the football outsider numbers were through 14 games.

    I only recall 1 missed INT in the 1st half (the Bess td), and that play would never be called a drop statistically because the effort required to bring it in.

    The other missed INT I remember was intended for Marshall, and I thought it was in the 2nd half. Not sure it was a drop either, I can't recall how cleanly the db got his hands on it.
     
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  19. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    Two in the first half. The Bess TD and one I think was to Cobbs.
     
  20. cubanogrande2001

    cubanogrande2001 New Member

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    I actually think Sanchez is in the right system to fit his skills and he has tremendous upside in comparison at least to Henne. There is no QB contreversy in NY. i think Sanchez is entrenched as their QB of the future. Henne is entrenched as the QB for this weekend at best.
     
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  21. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    As much as I have critisized Henne and probably will continue to a degree.

    Sanchez has show decent touch on some deep throws, and pretty good timing on others.

    Then he looks like total garbage on others. All with one of the best offensive lines in the league, a running game, and one heck of a TE.

    I hope he stays as their Franchise Qb personally.
     
  22. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    Sanchez isn't very good either, except he can occassionally hit WRs that are open down the field.

    Someone should compare both of them to Josh Freeman of the Bucs. A 22 year old who is putting up some pretty good numbers on the youngest team in the league. I don't think this guy needs anybody's excuses. I guess talent finds a way. If he played in New York they would have put a statue up of him by now.
     
  23. BicketyBam

    BicketyBam No Fist Pumps Allowed

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    Is this what I have to look forward to now that Miami's season is over? Come on. This is sad.
     
  24. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    So Henne throws a much more catch-able ball than Sanchez...(Henne 62.2% completion, Sanchez 54.8%)
     
  25. ATLFINFAN

    ATLFINFAN Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Sanchez might be better than good but what he brings that I wish Henne also bought is to LOOK DOWN FIELD and take a chance every now and then. Sanchez will at least go for it when he has to scramble, trying to make a play.
     
  26. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO Henne has been unlucky this year. His INT rate is 3.3 according to the article. IMO that's still too high. I like my QBs to be below that 3.0 level. But Henne wasn't as bad as he is painted by most. Fans tend to focus on the results, but when you develop a QB the results don't matter as much as the how and why. You also want to see progress. Last year Henne threw 1 INT every 32 passes. This year even with what appears to be an inordinate amount of bad luck, his rate is 1 INT every 26 passes (through 15 games). That's not good enough, but it is clearly an improvement over the previous season.
     

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