http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vv_fAZq8li0 For those that have been wondering what I'm talking about. As usual, I did not pull any punches. I put in the bad with the good. There were even good throws that I left out just because they weren't all that interesting. I will say that the Alamo Bowl probably ranks as the 3rd or 4th best game I have seen of his this year. There were things of course from other games that I would have liked to show you, I felt like this particular game he went with his 1st read a little more than he did in other games. I also felt like there were three more games that would have shown better what I mean when I say that he slides naturally and constantly in order to keep pressure at bay and find the right throw, but then again you can see some of that in this game as well. To put it bluntly, when I watch him play, I think I'm not watching a college player, I'm watching an NFL player...and a good one, at that.
Really good QB, I'm more then a little concerned about two things. Always is the shotgun. The sideline making the adjustments not Weeden. Good coaching can solve both issues. Sold, now the question is in the 1st or due to his age 2nd, 3rd, 4th?
Regarding Weeden- There is no doubt that this kid tools has him as a R1 talent but given his age and injury history I think he will be there when we pick in R3. I know in another thread you mentioned John Beck's age coming out of BYU which is a valid point but the main difference is the injuries on Weeden.
80% of college football is shotgun spread nowadays. Dana Holgorsen's system calls for the offense to be in constant hurry-up, they snap the ball about 20 seconds after the whistle on most every play. I doubt that's enough time to get the full play call into the huddle, it probably has to come in pieces (formation first, etc). What you're noticing when he looks to the sidelines is probably the offense receiving the final piece of the play call. After that he still has to adjust the backs for the protections or strength of the defense, according to what it shows, etc.
Isn't that basically the same system Oklahoma used with Bradford? He looked to the sidelines before each play
I'm just not as big on Brandon. If he were 22, Id consider him a 2nd round pick, but he would be 28 for next season! Although you do see him go through reads, He is pretty much a 1 read QB, isn't the best under pressure. There is a lot of things I really really like about his game. But, there are some things I have questions about, not really dislikes, other then him being a rookie at 28. Like I said prior, I feel like a 4th round grade is justified. But this is one prospect we differ on.
10 sacks. 10 sacks. In 533 snaps I recorded via ESPN's play-by-plays...10 sacks. Now, do YOU see a special offensive line there in Oklahoma State? I see a pretty good one, but 1 sack every 53 touches for a QB is positively ABSURD. I reject the notion that he's not good under pressure. He feels pressure earlier, and handles it better and more smoothly, than anyone in the Draft. He handles pressure like a PRO...not some college kid who waits to the last minute and then tries some silly move to juke a guy in the backfield. He handles pressure like Peyton Manning, like Dan Marino.
10 Sacks is great, but it pretty much supports my opinion of him being a 1 read QB. He gets the ball out quick, and I agree, OSU's OL looks good, nothing spectacular. I should maybe clerify my thoughts about him under pressure. I agree he with everything you said as far as feeling pressure and handles it well, BUT IMO he doesn't THROW well under pressure. Now its not to say hes awful, I just dont think when pressure is on him, he makes the best throws.
If you watched as many of his games as I have, you wouldn't say that. That was one of the initial criticisms I had of him, that he's NOT a guy that "gets the ball out quick". He waits for something to come open. Nobody does! Have you checked PFF's quarterback ratings lately when a QB is pressured? I have. I've gone through every one. League average for a starting QB's passer rating while being pressured is about in the low to mid 60's. Everyone in football throws interceptions under pressure, or throws a little less accurately.
That may be the case. Ive watched only 4 games of his, and it seemed to be his thing. I may be wrong, I will watch more games hopefully soon. Of course no one does. Thats what pressure does, but how often does Brandon get pressure, step into his throw and complete a nice pass? I just see it less then some other top QBs. Again, like I said, I dont dislike his game at all. I would really like it and his potential. But it is what it is.
If you've watched 4 games of his, then the problem isn't in how many of his games you've seen. The problem is I straight up have evaluated his tendencies as a quarterback differently from how you have. One of us is wrong. What QBs do you see it more often? How often? Can you put some names and quantify this a little more?
From the video, I really liked his ball placement and his ability to get the ball up and down. I also like his deep accuracy. Those are three areas that I have always questioned about Henne that I think have really hurt him and Miami. It looks to me like Weeden gets the ball out quickly. He doesn't have the fastest release, but his decisions are fairly quick. I'm not sure how much of a progression he's going through, though. Part of that is the system. My guess is that he's asked to make much of his read pre-snap. He did show some nice eye discipline to control the S on those passes down the sideline. As for the shotgun thing, I agree that's most of college football so the pros are going to have to adapt in both their evaluations and the time they give these kids to adapt. Bradford is a guy I had rated much higher and he's the exception. IMO if you're drafting one of those elite prospects (top 5) then you can probably throw them in early, but if you're taking lesser prospects then you better give them more time to adapt or you're really increasing the odds of getting/making a bust.
I agree with this. If anything I think with the game plan, they wanted him to work on his getting the ball out quicker and being more decisive in this Arizona game. One thing that I noticed and actually wanted to criticize a little bit in the other games I saw during the college season was that he would hold onto the football and wait for something to come open, looking around until he found something. I tend to look for guys that get the ball out. I had no idea what his stats were when I started evaluating him, I usually jump in watching the tape first and then look at the stats later to see if they bear out what I saw and would have predicted based on the games. When I saw how he generally held onto the ball and scanned the field until he found someone open, I openly wondered how many sacks the guy takes. I mean, I wasn't SEEING any sacks or negative consequences of his holding onto the ball, but you figure they would have to be there, right? But then I looked and saw that officially he's only been sacked like 8 times. Unofficially I think you can tack on two more "runs" that went for negative yardage. This, on like 528 official touches. That sack rate is absurd and what it made me realize is that his holding the ball until he felt pressure was because he had the confidence to feel the pressure and slide away from it, buy just enough time to get the ball to its target using that arm of his, or to throw the ball away. So then I figured, ok, he's got 13 interceptions, that's actually kind of high, a 2.54% interception rate. Maybe he's not taking sacks because of his tendency to hold onto it and slide rather than go into full scramble mode, but he's probably making some really dicey throws and that's why he's got the high interception rate. So I looked into it. I've seen 7 games of his so that means I've now seen 6 of his interceptions. When I diagnose what went wrong in those interceptions....I think I can say that only one of them semi-fits the "risky thrower under pressure" profile, and that one still was a ball he was trying to get rid of in the right place and he was hit as he threw it, and so it fell limp. You have to credit the OL for keeping people off him but you also have to credit him for being so good at sensing pressure that he knows that when the pressure comes, he can sense it and either buy just enough time with his feet to get the ball off somewhere with that ridiculous arm of his, or he can just get the ball out and throw it away. On the video I labeled one of those throws a risky throw but in actuality I think he was trying to throw the ball away into the sidelines, and was being hit as he threw so it didn't fly as far as he intended. Just the arm strength, accuracy, and advanced touch concepts alone make him 1st round material.
Just from the video... Likes... howlitzer for an arm, accurate deep and solid touch, good deep ball placement Dislikes... footwork, throws flat footed at times, throws off his back foot. Is this Jay Cutler or David Carr?
Longer we go without a CBA, the more his stock will freefall. No season in 2011? That means he'll be 29 by week 4 of the 2012 regular season.
Perhaps, but at this point, I think that even though the fans are left in the lurch wondering a little bit (which may be on purpose), NFL owners and higher ups in the players union *know* that there will be football in 2011. That's the feeling I get.
I think there will be a deal. But I think it may come after the draft, in which case his stock HAS to be affected. Too much could go wrong in negotiations to take him say at 15 and then him be almost 29 when he gets his first start. Hell, imagine if he got injured in pre-season or just struggled. He might be 30 by the time he takes a meaningful snap.
I don't think so, just because I'm pretty sure the NFLPA has already voted to de-certify as a last resort measure to ensure that football is played in 2011. In a de-certification scenario, it's my understanding that football would go on and the NFL would have to operate in a manner that they deem fair while the two sides battle it out in court.
Another video of Brandon Weeden. This one's long, but far more comprehensive. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpkLIET5uvA
I absolutely LOVE how he handles pressure. Probably one of the best I've seen this year of the top QB's. The way he moves around the pocket to buy time and his scrambling ability is exciting. But now that it looks like TS is staying, if we drafted Weeden, this characteristic of his game would be coached right out of him. "Don't scramble to make a play, Brandon! Check down or throw it away! You have 2.4 seconds to make the throw, otherwise you're benched!"
Id have no problem drafting this kid in the 2 or 3 round because everyone is scared of his age.... Hes as pretty a passer as I have seen in awhile.... Gets up on his toes....seems like his throws are just effortless....pretty quick release...doesnt need a full windup.... His second throw..I can see why he isnt sacked so much....and its something the bears were working on with Cutler...and thats throwing the ball while dropping back...like a fading jump shot...
He doesn't get sacked much because of a combination of: pocket sense (he doesn't have to look down to feel pressure), getting the ball off on his first read some of the time (which is not necessarily a bad thing), active feet, and the CONFIDENCE in his arm. The man's been a professional thrower (pitcher, quarterback) in different sports for many years, and the confidence he has in his ability to get the ball anywhere from any leverage, any distance or any angle, just oozes off him. He doesn't run around like he needs to juke a guy, get out to the perimeter, and then set up, before he can start to figure what to do with the football. He slides, backs away, always keeps his eyes upfield, then relies on his arm.
Love how he does the fake reverses..... LOVE IT. Im fallin in love with this kid right away.....just imagining what he could do being developed in the NFL..... Dear lord if we get this kid, please dont let this staff ruin him.
I'm desperate enough for a competent quarterback, so yes. But, I do *not* know where the rest of the NFL is going to value him...and that's pretty critical. You don't want to take a guy at #15 that the rest of the NFL wouldn't touch until the 3rd round. You need to get a sense for where the other teams are valuing the guy, and that way you know if you can get away with trading down (which would be my inclination) and still get him. John Beck went #40 overall with similar age issues, but John Beck also was a four-year starter as opposed to this guy's one year. Then again, anyone with eyes sees that this guy's talent blows Beck's out of the water. Incidentally to nobody in particular, I personally have been resisting use of the word 'kid' to describe this particular athlete...as he's my age, and that feels just a little bit weird, lol.
Considering he's a rocket-armed first year starter I agree his dedication to fake and feint fundamentals is pretty impressive. Guys with rocket arms sometimes think so highly of themselves they don't dedicate to the nuance. He was 3rd string for 3 years at Oklahoma State, so that probably doesn't apply to him. The fundamental problems that I see in him therefore FEEL fixable, like he'd actually work at it. And incidentally he sounds like a genuinely nice dude.
I disagree, I see a hitch in his swing. and its pretty substantial, will be even more exposed at the next level..I also do not see top arm strength, and his release point sends the ball out low relative to his listed size..He's a pretty thrower though..
agree. if Phins can trade down and get him in the 2nd Im probably more comfy with that. dream scenario is him there in the 3rd. like you said, based on the age, who knows where his draft stock will be perceived.
Is he gonna declare, CK? And if so how many seasons do you think we can realistically get out of him?
just want to say how much i appreciate you taking the time to highlight players that arent on everyone's radar screen. i know most people are interested in first rounders but for me i really appreciate it when you guys go deeper into the draft. thats what really seperates you guys imo