For hypothetical purposes, let's assume that John Fox selects Da'Quan Bowers with the #2 pick but really has another guy he likes in the middle of Round 1. Would you trade the #15 pick to Denver for the #36 & #46 picks in Round 2? I'm a founding member of the Mark Ingram bandwagon, but part of me wonders if he'll even be there at #15 at this point. Jeff Ireland is apparently high on Lex Hilliard. So let's say we bring back Hilliard, add Kory Sheets as a change of pace guy, and sign DeAngelo Williams. At that point, I think a trade with Denver looks pretty good. If I were going to mock it real quick (and mind you, it's late on a Friday night), I might go: 36. Leonard Hankerson 46. Jake Kirkpatrick 79. Colin Kaepernick (not convinced he'll go early yet) Another thing to keep in mind is that John Fox will probably be moving Denver back to the 4-3. If a CBA deal is reached, perhaps we swap a few players as well?
Well floated this idea a bit back, but do not see the Broncos giving up both #2's, though the value chart does say it is a good trade. Broncos are trying to acquire picks, if they moved up to the #15 and give up both #2's, where would that leave them? I also think they won't take Bowers, not with Dumervil coming back in 2011, I suspect they would really like to move the #2 overall for more picks. Dumervil is in an interesting situation, maybe Fox wants his own guys, and does not wish to be saddled with his huge contract?
Id like to see us get either a Qb we want that drops, Ingram or the best interior lineman in the draft at 15 than move down and get a couple more bodies.
In general, I would trade down, but I would wait until I was on the clock in case a top player slipped. I also think its unlikely that Kaepernick makes it past the second round. He might, but if he's a guy they want then I expect it will take at least a second to be sure.
I definitely like the idea of completely trading out of the first, but not to draft Kirkpatrick or Kaepernick. Even, if we sign DeAngelo, I still want another RB. We could go: 36- Hankerson/Titus Young/Ryan Williams 46- Ryan Williams/Kendall Hunter/Jerrel Jernigan 79- Kendall Hunter/John Moffitt/DeMarco Murray/Noel Devine/Lance Kendricks, etc... There are even more options than I listed that will be available there. If we could pick up two 2nds, I would be the happiest fan in the world, as long as we didn't use it on a QB or defensive line.
I'm not sure he's going to be able to trade down from #2. And, at that spot, you almost have to take Bowers, in my opinion. So, if you're Fox, and there's another guy you love in the middle of the first, I'm not so sure you'd be unwilling to pay up. I'm not saying he will do it. I'm just saying that I can understand a scenario when this might happen. Agreed on Kaepernick. After Ingram, I don't like a lot of the runners at the top of this draft (or in the 2nd round, let's say). I think there's more talent at the receiver position (Hankerson, Baldwin, Young) and on the offensive line.
I wouldn't move out of the 1st round. I also wouldn't move down for Hankerson. He isn't the type of WR the Dolphins need. He'll be a very good WR, but isn't the deep threat they need. If that were Titus Young I would be more inclined. I still don't think you're getting good enough value though there to move out of the middle of the 1st all the way to the 2nd and only get a late 2nd out of it.
It's not a late 2nd out of it. It's two picks in the top half of the 2nd round. And you can probably take your pick from Hankerson, Young, or Baldwin there.
Even for a mid 2nd it's not worth it IMO. You're moving down 21 spots and dropping completely out of the 1st round and only getting a mid 2nd. Last year we moved down to the end of the 1st round and picked up a high 2nd and a player. 1st round picks are premium players. I brought it up in another thread, but look at the success rate of players taken in the 1st round by this regime compared to players taken in the 2nd. We're talking about a night and day difference almost.
Just fyi on the trade 15 = 1050.... 36 = 540 and 46 = 440. so the difference is equivalent to a mid 4th rounder that we're giving up to move down. May not seem like a big deal to a team that could be desperate to move down (due to the lack of a 2nd rounder), but I think we can do better and remain in the first round.
I'm not all that convinced that this is a great draft . . . at least not on the offensive side of the ball, except for receiver. The value chart is a guide. I don't think you can go into a trade and say, "well this trade is 70 points off the value chart so therefore we should get something more." I just don't think they work like that. I'm looking at it solely from the standpoint of being able to add two players in the first half of the 2nd as opposed to adding one player in the middle of the 1st. Unless that player in the middle of the 1st is Mark Ingram or Julio Jones (or perhaps Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton), I'm just not sold on them being a better value than two guys in the top half of the 2nd.
Well, to me it would make sense as the types of players we need are not going to be solved with 1 #1 (15) and a #3 (78) but #36 and #46 and maybe a 5th rd pick then we could address LG/Te or Rb/C or OLB/DE/ILB depending on Incognito being retained. The difference to me would be taking a true impact player at #15, and I'm not sure we are close enough to the top of the draft to land one. I'd suspect we'd have our choice of Guards or Te's or Running Backs at #15, or maybe a Qb depending, but we won't have the pick of the liter so to speak at almost any other position which is why moving back would make sense to me.
For a little reference, last year's move down from 12 to 28 and 40. 12 was 1200, 28 was 660 and 40 was 500. a little closer, but that 40 point difference is a high 5 instead of a mid 4. So to make up the difference, and some of us forget there were other picks involved, the teams swapped fourth round picks, 126th pick to 110th pick (74 points to 46 points, and the Dolphins included a 6th round pick, #173 for 22.2 points. Wait a second? They didn't make up the difference did they? Instead the Dolphins gave up more "value" to get that second round pick, in total they "lost" 90.2 points. That's equivalent to a high 4th round pick. I can see why the Chargers took the deal. I think the goal is to get close to the chart but not precise. It's a baseline and it can slide either way depending on several other factors, how desperate a team is to move (up or down), which team is initiating contact will likely be the team that is giving up value.... and you look at the depth and value board within a certain position that you could be looking to move up for. Yeah, the Chargers wanted Ryan Mathews (RB) to fill that LT void but did they have to jump up 16 spots to get him? Well, the Lions did have to move up a few picks to land the next running back taken at the bottom of round 1 (after the 28th pick interestingly enough) in Jahvid Best. Something prompted both teams to think they needed to move up to get their running back in a draft that wasn't deep at the top at the position. I think once Spiller went off the board to Buffalo at the 9th pick, the Chargers were eager to move up and get the next back rated. I still think we initiated contact and were obviously the team that gave up more in the deal. Interesting to note what Det gave up to move up four spots from 34 (560) to 30 (620)...they swapped fourth round picks (100th pick for 100 points - 128th pick for 44 points) and Det included a 7th to the Vikes which was worth 5.8 points. That is .2 points away from being an even trade. That's about as close as you can get Perhaps the Vikes were looking to get out of the first round and the salary. Or perhaps the Vikes had sent out signals that they were going to draft Best themselves and held Detroit over the barrel.... they were looking for another back, as evidenced by the fact they ended up trading UP in the 2nd round to get Toby Gearheart... that's right, the next running back taken off the board. noticing a trend? Which position is likely to be THAT spot in the 2011 draft?
I think it's not any kind of great draft, but it's certainly not a bad draft IMO. There are talented players in the 1st round on the offensive side of the ball.
Don't forget though, the Dolphins also got Tim Dobbins in the deal, who they were pretty high on and probably felt was worth the difference.
I think trading down often depends on where the value is in the draft relative to what you need. I remember one year the 49ers, under Bill Walsh, kept trading down and out of the first round, acquiring numerous picks that turned out exceptionally well for them. The Patriots are also notorious for trading down to where they see value. Since the Dolphins could use RB's and interior OL it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they traded down to where the value is if they can't get their QB of choice. Rounds 2 and 3 look to hold a bunch of decent prospects at both RB and OL, so it wouldn't shock me to see a trade down with Denver, or even another team willing to part with seconds or even thirds.
I agree with that PhinGeneral, we have enough holes that one pick is not going to make everything better, we need an injection of talent to sort through, though with the CBA issues trading back may not be as possible this yr as it has been in past yrs. We maybe have some answers on IR or as prospects though: -Kory Sheets -Nate Garner -Brooks Foster -Julius Pruitt -Pat Carter -Derrick Martin -Roberto Wallace -Marlon Moore (whom I think showed a lot in limited action in 2010) -Dedrick Epps -Mick Shuler (whom to me looked great at the end of the yr) -Mark Rivera (wildly athletic OLB we poached from Green Bay) -Jerod Mastrud (who disappointed in 2010 but he has nice size) Figure we add at least 6 players via the draft, that is nice sample size of players to sort through but I'd still like to add some CFLers prior to the Draft just to see if we can hit on another one, when you can sign them for 100k, much less than even a late rd pick to me we'd be crazy to not add 2 or 3 more and look at them like 5th-7th rd picks. There are some UFLers also that should be looked at like Antonio Dixon Rb from UConn and maybe Odell Thurman depending on his status.
Agreed. In general you have to use early picks on QBs and a few other positions. RBs, TE and interior OL are easily found later. Assuming they have QB, RB, TE and interior OL as their top needs then the draft could go one of two ways. If they don't have a QB rated as an early pick then acquiring more, late picks to better fill your other needs is the smart play. If they do like one of the top QBs then they don't trade down and address the QB need. Trading up is also an option to fill that QB need. IMO the QB talent in this draft doesn't warrant trading up. Not that the QBs may not turn out to be good, just that they aren't can't miss types that warrant going all in to get one.
I was just going to say that. I think the Dolphins and Chargers considered Tim Dobbins to be worth about a 4th round pick, and so the 90 point shortfall in the value we got was to pay for him. Tim was drafted in the 5th round and had increased his stock since coming into the pros, so I think a 4th round valuation for him would not be considered unreasonable. In fact the details of that trade kind of reek of very specific and very tedious negotiations that revolved specifically around a point value chart. The Dolphins ask the Chargers for #40 and Dobbins in order to move down from #12 to #28. The Chargers reply back that's too unfavorable, the consider Dobbins to be worth a 4th rounder and that's worth twice what we'd be paying for him (about 40 points)...so we'll make up the shortfall by switching our 4th rounders (about 20 points) and giving up a 6th rounder (another 20 points). I think the chart is pretty closely observed in a lot of situations.
Perhaps we're talking about the wrong Denver Broncos pick. The Broncos have made it known that they want to trade back from the #2 overall pick. Would be interesting to see what they're asking for that pick. The Dolphins would have to make up a 1550 point shortfall, according to the chart. Chad Reuter says that a lot of teams want to trade out of the top 10 this year.
My understanding is that most trades fall within 100 points of the chart. You would need someone to fall in love with a player for a trade to occur that ignores the chart.
CK, aside from gathering up the necessary value to trade up with Denver, would you pay #2 money to Gabbert in what may supposedly be the last draft without a rookie pay scale? Are you that high on him? Do you have guys to whom you think he compares favorably? I don't recall if you listed any in your prior write-up. Pad, I admire your love for Moore (and, to a lesser extant, Wallace). I just have a problem with the drops and the fact that, as soon as Hartline went down, we not only signed Curtis but played him just a few days later. It makes me question how much this staff has just been shoveling BS to us on both of them. If we're talking about swapping players, I wonder what Fox thinks about Robert Ayers, considering he is going to have a shot at a quality DE at #2 (if he can't trade).
My instincts say that I don't want to trade all the way to #2 unless I'm given little choice in the matter. The reason is, I don't have ONE guy that is just this super awesome QB prospect. I have two, and I'd take either one of them. And there's a third I'd take at #15 and feel pretty comfortable with if I didn't get one of those two. Chad Reuter says that there are a lot of teams in the top 10 that are looking at the trade down. If that's the case, I'm investigating that...because if I could get away with a cheaper price tag for one QB versus another, I'm probably doing that. I have conviction on both Gabbert and Newton, with Newton maybe a little more than Gabbert at this point. If I have to trade the farm to move up to #2 for one of them, but only have to trade something significantly less to move into the top 8 or 10 for the other, the latter appeals to me a lot more.
I'd be a lot more accepting of that alternative. It's not my preferred outcome, but I could live with it (i.e. get behind it and not ***** and moan for the next year waiting on the pick to fall on his face).
