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A look at Rb Draft Success 101

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by padre31, Feb 19, 2011.

  1. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    http://blogs.rotoworld.com/Fantasy_Football/2011/02/college_backs_and_yards_per_ca.php

    Solid look, with all of the attention paid to Quarteback metrics, rarely does a metric emerge for running backs, I think Evan Silva may be onto something here as virtually every draft head I've read are not fans of Demarco Murray

    However as he points out this does not make players locks to succeed, he only provides an metric of likely success in the NFL.

    What has my "Draft Meter" geeked into the Red is the fact that many of the players he singles out as "most likely to..." are more than likely late round draft choices, this yr, of all yrs a 6th or 7th rd running back could have an instant impact in the NFL..and for us.:up:
     
  2. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    One of the issues I was having with Mark Ingram being drafted at #15 is whether or not he was a good value, I had him as a mid to late first rd pick to someplace like the Colts are even the Chiefs to replace Jones, if the Giants value him at #19 then #15 would not be out of line for him.

    But I suspect much will ride on his 40 time (as foolish as that is) at the Combine, though with 2 yrs of film a slight misstep leaving the blocks on a 40 yd dash should not mean much at all.
     
  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I like that correlation of running backs who have over a 6 yard average in tough conferences...Ingram is around a 5.5...

    I think he really needs to run that 4.4..anything less I think his value will drop some.
     
  4. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    And that is the key for us Deej, there are several running backs who will come off of the board in that Rd #4-#7 range who could be studs, but Ingram could be that once every 10 yr player, do they do their usual and flee top pick talent to add draft picks, or do they grit their teeth, cross their fingers, and go with the once every 10 yrs type?

    So far, Ireland has fled every opportunity to acquire Franchise types of players, if he continues that he will fail in Miami as sorting through scratch and dent players will NEVER payoff consistently.
     
  5. Frayser

    Frayser Barstool Philosopher

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    I'm not really concerned about Ingram's 40 time. Unless he absolutely bombs it and doesn't bother running again, I just don't consider it to be a deal breaker. His combination of physical tools and intangibles is rare, and I would not pass on him at #15 when RB is our #1 or #2 need.

    I have not checked out the middle rounds all that extensively. I'm not sure how much I like Ryan Williams or Kendall Hunter. Shane Vereen strikes me as an NFL runner.
     
  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I think there are 3 running backs who could fit into that MJD role:

    -Vereen
    -Carter
    -Powell

    With Dion Lewis on the bubble, of those 4 Lewis is likely to be a 6th rd pick, Vereen smells like a 3rd round guy, not sure about Powell.

    My one caveat is whether the back was coming out of the Spread offense, not sure how well a huge YPA avg from the spread will work in the NFL as holes close faster, Defenders play closer to the LOS.
     
  7. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    LeShoure is 6'0 230 at 20 years old w/ no injury history.

    This kid could be a beast by the time he's 24....... Steven Jackson type beastly if he can gain more strength (which should happen), run with a little more power (which should happen with more strength), and finish off runs with a little more authority (which he'll need more than just strength for. lol)

    I could be wrong, but when I watch LeShoure, I can't help but think of Jackson in his younger years (with Mikel maybe having a slightly slower top end). His patience, vision, ability to set up his blocks, potential as a receiving threat, awareness, and ability to gain extra yardage at the 2nd level are very similar IMO.

    Mikel LeShoure:

    [video=youtube;gVgFcPDMQLQ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVgFcPDMQLQ[/video]


    Steven Jackson:

    [video=youtube;smeBoU57r6s]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smeBoU57r6s[/video]
     
  8. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    I know a lot of people here like Mark Ingram, but honestly when I watched Alabama I always seemed to be more impressed with Trent Richardson. Anyone else feel this way? I don't mean to take away from this thread, I am just curious.
     
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  9. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't think there's any chance he runs a 4.4 at the combine. Most of the backs there won't run that fast and Ingram could even be in the high 4.5's. IMO, that shouldn't matter with him. 40 times are incredibly overrated. We've seen so many guys get knocked down draft boards because of their 40 time only to become the great players that the film said they were. Mark Ingram is a special back IMO and teams that let him fall because of a slow 40 time will be making a big mistake.
     
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  10. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Yeah, he's an animal. I think hes less instinctive though.
     
  11. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    IMO a guy to keep an eye on is Jamie Harper of Clemson. He'll never be great because his vision isn't up there with Ingram but he's got some solid all around skills. Really catches the ball well and he runs hard.
     
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  12. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I really wish to see his 3 cone drill time.

    What strikes me is how long the list is of backs who averaged over 5 ypc, and their likely draft position, does anyone seriously think the Rb from HI is going off of the boards in the first 3 rds?
     
  13. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    This is what I mean by great value in this draft, after you go past Williams and Thomas, most of those prospects are not Rd #1-#3 guys,

    My dudes are:

    -Shane Vereen
    -De'rel Scott
    -Dion Lewis
    -Delone Carter
    -Taiwan Jones
    -Bilal Powell

    Carter is interesting as Ck likes him, but he is below that 5 ypa metric, and it would be helpful if a later round Rb can also handle kick off and punt returns, the other thing is one has to wonder if Ireland does what he usually does, take the largest running back with the fastest 40 time, to me that is a mistake as a taller back just soaks up more punishment imo.
     
  14. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    After the top guys Shane Vareen is a guy I'm interested in. I'm curious what the draft buffs think of him. Also at the HB position I love Kendall Hunter. He's been talked about a little bit around here, but I think you've got a steal if he somehow ends up in the 3rd round.
     
  15. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Bilal Powell reminds me of James Starks in so many ways.
     
  16. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, to me it is like Christmas at the running back position in this draft, there are good prospects throughout the rounds, literally from rd #1 to rd #7, a running back connoisseur should be able to find a high quality back in Draft 2011, and maybe not require the #15 overall to land him.
     
  17. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Starks was injury prone at UB, and I'm not sure if he is the type of back we are looking for as he runs well away from the I Formation, he is more of a delay handoff type of back, not really a speed/power guy as imho, we need.
     
  18. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Totally agree.
    He's scares me b/c he's still so raw...... but at the same time his rawness has me wondering how high his ceiling is b/c he's flashed some nice potential and was improving and running stronger by the week. If he stayed another year I'd think he'd be a solid 2nd rounder, so IMO he could be a mid round steal. If we don't grab Ingram or LeShoure, then Harper would be on my RB want list alongside Daniel Thomas, or maybe a hair behind him.
     
  19. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    Who names their kid Taiwan?
     
  20. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Since we have like no backs on the roster, I get the feeling we'll target one of the bigger backs who carry more of the load than the smaller guys....... plus being reliable out of the backfield. So my top 4 are:
    Mikel LeShoure
    Mark Ingram
    Daniel Thomas
    Jamie Harper
     
  21. JCowScot

    JCowScot So funky the dead dance

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    I'm on him as well (Harper). In addition to the pluses and minuses that Alen mentioned, what I like about him is his balance and feet. He does a good job of manipulating his center-of-gravity and keeping his feet under him and moving.

    Not a big fan of Clay- he disappears against good defenses and I question his toughness. I am still wondering what the )&*^% happened to Dion Lewis; was Pitt's line really that bad the past year or so, or were they just that good his first year and change?

    I watched that video of Leshoure. Smooth runner, great short-area quickness but no burst or top-end speed. Goes down too easily when tackled by CB/S, but has excellent field vision.

    If we are going to run a more aggressive, Pats-type offense, I see us needing a back that can catch (in space) and get YAC. We are only going to keep one of the R+R tandem; heck we may not even keep one depending on FA and the draft, and neither showed the consistent ability to get YAC (some of that may have been due to playcalling). As for the rest of the roster, Hilliard has avg. hands at best and Sheets is an injury unknown at this point. Taking all that into account, I've narrowed my RB focus (possible draftees) to those who have shown they can 'catch-and-run' well, as that is where I see us going.
     
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  22. vmarcilfan75

    vmarcilfan75 blah...blah...blah... Club Member

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    The closest RB to MJD IMO is Jacquizz Rodgers.
     
  23. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    Just for the sake of argument (this isn't a prediction or rumor ... or even me advocating we draft him) ... but what if Ingram has a great combine and then surprises everyone and runs a sub 4.5 as well as shine in all the other drills? How much would you raise his chances at being our pick at #15?
     
  24. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    That would depend on how much of a Parcells guy Jeff Ireland is, the Tuna Philosophy is to not take a running back with a #1 pick because they frequently bust, or did, now #1 pick running backs are somewhat rare.

    Also, I have to wonder how much to give to the idea that Irish really like Hilliard when Sparano never played him 2010, is that GM and HC butting heads? Smoke Screen?

    Then there is Brian Daboll, how much input will he have on who is taken? P Hillis really was an afterthought throw in player and we saw what he did in 2010.

    As for me, I would "if" Ingram is a feature back, a 300 carries 4.5 ypa type, otherwise pass on him.
     
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  25. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I'd love me some Jacquizz as long as he doesn't take away from Greg Little. lol. Granted that means we're not drafting either of them. :lol:
     
  26. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Who knows...... if Julio is gone by Washington, then maybe someone else grabs Ingram before we have the chance. It's a possibility. I don't think we're in the position to not take a back early unless Ireland & Co feel comfortable with either Ronnie or Lex as our primary back since FA is an unknown. I'm at a crossroad between Ingram & LeShoure, but regardless, IMO one of those two or Daniel Thomas will be a Phin. All 3 could come in and contribute early..... and handle some quality reps.
     
  27. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well that is the attraction of taking a Runnng Back early, a Rook Rb can produce as much as a the annual All Pro running back can as the position is virtually the same in the NFL as it is in the NCAA.

    A 1,500 yd back would be a huge shot in the arm for the offense which is why I say we need to draft a Feature Back, 300 carries 4.5 ypa, 10 TD's...but is Mark Ingram that guy?
     
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  28. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    And that's a great point to consider Pods. The biggest thing I'd want to pay attention to during the combine isnt how fast Ingram runs, but how his hands are during drills.

    I'd also like to know exactly what kind of offense Daboll plans on running. If he does want to spread it out and/or utilize a dual purpose threat back, then I'm looking more at LeShoure and Daniel Thomas....... and then Jamie Harper/Shane Vereen if that fails.

    We need a seam splitting TE, playmaking WR, #1 RB, and possibly future FB......... so how would you feel if we traded back and landed Rudolph, Daniel Thomas, Greg Little, and Owen Marecic? (or do you think that Lex could be that FB? You watch, Daboll turns Lex into his Peyton Hillis variation. :shifty: )
     
  29. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I think it matters with him TP, what I watch is the 3 cone stuff.

    Harper is not on the "metric" list for success in the NFL though TP, I think Vereen is, 5 ypc is the cut off.

    That is what makes Leshoure interesting, 6 ypc in a conference that plays solid run defense.

    Adding Shockey would help as you know what sort of blocker he is, disagree about the playmaking Wr, that is Brandon Marshall's job, would not mind a trade back (or adding Mallet or Ingram for that matter) but think, once again, RG-C-LG is a problem for us that has to be fixed.

    I also think Sparano likes Hilliard at Fb, which is where Hillis was drafted to play in Denver, so who knows?
     
  30. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    4.58 unofficial for Mark Ingram

     
  31. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well:

    pleasant surprises:

    -Da'rel Scott 4.35
    -Fanin 4.4
    -Hunter 4.48
    -Vereen 4.51
    -D Murray 4.40

    Disappointing:

    - J Rogers
    -Locke
    -R Williams
    -Dion Lewis 4.59

    Ingram looked over coached on how to run the 40
     
  32. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Scott is this years Andre Brown. Fannin is fragile. Hunter's not that big of a surprise IMO. He has so much leg power and drive. That's a good time for Vereen IMO.
     
  33. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    Official 40 times for HB: http://www.gbnreport.com/combineblog.html

    RBs
    Da'rel Scott, Maryland 4.34
    Mario Fannin, Auburn 4.38
    Derrick Locke, Kentucky 4.40
    Jordan Todman, UConn 4.40
    DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma 4.41
    Roy Helu, Nebraska 4.42
    Brandon Saine, Ohio State 4.43
    Shane Vereen, California 4.50
    Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State 4.53
    Alex Green, Hawaii 4.53
    Deleone Carter, Syracuse 4.56
    Johnny White, North Carolina 4.56
    Dion Lewis, Pittsburgh 4.57
    Allen Bradford, USC 4.58
    Darren Evans, Virginia Tech 4.58
    Mikel Leshoure, Illinois 4.59
    Jamie Harper, Clemson 4.59
    Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech 4.61
    Mark Ingram, Alabama 4.62
    Damien Berry, Miami 4.63
    Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State 4.64
    Evan Royster, Penn State 4.65
    Graig Cooper, Miami 4.65
    Stephen Ridley, LSU 4.66
    Vai Taua, Nevada 4.71
    Shaun Draughn, North Carolina 4.75
    Matt Asiata, Utah 4.81
    John Clay, Wisconsin 4.87
     
  34. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    No he didn't...

    Boy that is a pet peeve of mine Gunner, the "official" bull****, they pulled that crap on Taylor Mays last yr when he ran a 4.3 they just go back and write whatever they wish to write, which makes the whole Combine a steaming pile of monkey crap.

    (not peeved at you Bro, but those stats will be quoted from here until the last guy on the list retires, and they are pretty much lies, Ingram ran a 4.58 or so, but they docked him .4 of a second just because they felt like it same with Henne's int in the Stealers game that was NOT an INT)
     
  35. Ricky'sBong

    Ricky'sBong Reborn

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    I really like Leshoure. 5'11 and a bit and in the 225 range. He ran 4.55 or so? I much prefer shorter, compact guys. Even though Ingram ran 4.6, his 10 yard split was a full tenth better than average. Give me that all day. Quick and explosive through the hole, thats more important than some guy running 4.3 or 4.4. Look at Ronnie as a perfect example. That straight line speed doesnt translate onto the field, so what good is it? Anyone see Dion Lewis in drills? Wow. His agility on that cut drill was insane. He didnt even break stride or lose any speed. Id love a guy like him or Rogers in the 3rd.
     
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  36. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Pity hsi 40 time wasn't better though as I like Dion Lewis as he reminds me of Joe Morris.
     
  37. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    Its all good man! I'm still waiting to see the replay on Deon Sander's 4.21 :lol:
     
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  38. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I'm still waiting to see a Qb "throw the ball from one goal post through the uprights at the other end of the field"

    I've heard that since Steve Bartkowski was in Atlanta..:lol:
     
  39. PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend

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    I like Helu.
     
  40. JCowScot

    JCowScot So funky the dead dance

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    He's starting to pique my interest too. Going to have to watch more tape after his combine performance, but he's got a great blend of size, speed and agility. Good YPC (6+ I think) over his college career as well.
     

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