***The Cincinnati Reds Thread***

Homer Bailey Article

http://baseball-intellect.com/Articles/scouting-homer-bailey.html

Not necessarily what I want to hear, but very interesting nonetheless. Good information here.

Hat-tip to RedLeg Nation.

 

In the last two games, men LOB: 12 & 11, respectively. Sometimes that's just how baseball goes. While I'd love to see the guys knocking each other in, it is good to see that we are, in fact, getting on base. If the pitching keeps up, we're going to win a lot of games. Last night, I'd like to see at least six innings out of Arroyo, but we were knotted when he left after five, so you can hardly blame him (well, 102 pitches for 5 innings... that's excessive, but still...).

My cynical side says that most other teams are going to be beating the Bucs, so we're losing ground against a bad team. And I hate losing these one-run games, especially when we've had so may chances. Two nights ago, Hopper came up with no score, runners on 1st and 3rd, and bunted out to first base, and Bako was doubled up coming home. Personally, in that siuation, I'd just rather see Hopper swing, his something, and if it doesn't make it to the outfield, try to leg it out to first to beat a double play. But Hopper bunts more than anyone else on the planet, so he is what he is. Last night, Adam Dunn was up with the bases loaded and one out. He K'd, which Dunn is apt to do - you take the good with the bad - and Marty Brennaman was all over him. That was a big spot in the game for a couple of our big hitters, Dunn and Encarnacion, to come up empty. We left the bases loaded, and that hurts.

What I don't think we need to do is panic and start screwing with the line-ups, except that I'd like to see Votto play every day. He's batting .320 now, and the only two things I'm waiting on are more BBs and extra base hits. But he can hit major league pitching. Having two LH-batting first basemen, it just doesn't make that much sense over the long haul. And I say that with all due respect to Scott Hatteberg, because I don't think the Reds have a player that works at-bats better than Hatteberg. He's a professional's professional. So while I think Votto can learn a lot from him, I don't know how much it benefits the Reds over the long haul to carry both players.

In summary, we're out-hitting other teams. For the most part, we're out-pitching other teams. We are making more errors than other teams. But we're just 6-6, and we should probably be better. Plus, we have to pin our hopes that little Johnny Cueto can outpitch Tom Gorzelanny just to scratch in this series... against the Pirates. One more time (bleech)... against the Pirates. Man, that leaves a baaaaad taste in my mouth. C'mon guys, just put up more runs than the other team. That's all I'm ever asking. Just that.

 

So after a turn-around-with-your-tail-between-your-legs-and-get-outta-Pittsburgh beating/pasting/sweeping that the Reds were handed by the Bucs, they thrust their stopper back to the mound today to try to stop the bleeding. Aaron Harang will take the ball and game on his capable shoulders and face Ryan Dempster tonight at Wrigley. The Reds really need to turn it around this series. Once again, the Cubs are a team that should be chasing the NL Central title, and wins against them - especially because we'll need to make up losses to Pittsburgh - are going to be sorely needed, no matter what time of year.

While I usually don't rail on how a line-up is constructed up and down, I do have problems with the players actually in the line-ups at times. Facing a sweep, we supported Johnny Cueto with a line-up that consisted of: Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, Juan Castro, and Paul Bako. Obviously, Cueto had to hit as well. No Dunn. No Votto or Patterson (except to pinch hit). No Hatteberg. Foresight was 20/20 on this one, and predictably, the Bucs nailed three home runs and Cinci >yawn< had zero. Also, we only had six hits, and I would have bet on less hits with less protection - and worse hitters - than we had gotten previously. While we really need Dunn and Encarnacion (who is in danger of losing his spot at third base - I think that'd be a mistake, though, because he's got to learn to get through slumps in the majors instead of being sent to Louisville to do it) to start hitting and Votto to offer a little more power, not inserting them in the line-up takes away a lot of the protection and makes the batting order pretty sterile.

Anyway, it's off to Wrigley for a couple of night games and then a get-away day game. Seems like not long ago, they were all day games in Chicago.

 

Cubs 9 Reds 5

That didn't go well.

Hard to believe Dempster outpitched Harang, but it happens. The Reds relief, which had been decent earlier in the year, has started to leak. Jared Burton got touched up last night, but he needs to get back onthe horse because we're going to be dependent upon him pitching well. Putting in Paul Coffey is like putting in Gary Majewski last year - you can just expect runs to be scored against you.

Patterson has cooled off. Only Kepp has remained consistent. Dunn - as much as I talked about not wanting to change the line-up in a past post - maybe, since he's not hitting, you do want to move him up to # 2 in the order. Yeah, he's not a contact guy like most # 2 hitters, but his OBP is high, and we may as well take advantage of that since he's not hitting. Plus, maybe he sees more pitches to hit. I don't know.

On the plus side, Votto finally went yard, albeit it was when the game was 9-4. Still, he needs to get used to that feeling. Encanacion launched an RBI double. And Griffey had a two run shot. When we went ahead 3-2, I thought we probably had the game (boy was I wrong).

Well, at least we have Josh Fogg going against Carlos Zambrano tonight.
Ah...&*$^$**&)%HLhF;*(&*(&%(#@@afioa!@!#)^)!# (am I allowed to say that?)

 

Fogg versus Zambrano went according to script. Fogg's not very good. Zambrano is. the Cubs were hitting last night. The Reds not as well. Predictably, the Reds lost 12-3. Dunn homered late, and Votto went two for three with a ground-rule double that plated a run. That's about all the good I can say. It's tough when your team's down 10-0 after three innings. After three starts, Fogg is 1-2, with a 13.09 ERA in 11 innings. In last night's game his WHIP was a deplorable 4.5. You never win with that. He went all of two innings to give up nine runs. Like I said, not good. Derrick Lee was a monster for the Cubs. So was Zambrano, both on the mound and at the plate (three hits, one a double, and an RBI). This is just one to forget.

To salvage a game out of the series, the Reds sent Edison Volquez to the mound to face the Cubs' batters, his opposite today, the venerable Ted Lilly. Breakout game for Joey Votto. A double and a homer, 5 RBIs. He did that all the while sitting on my Fantasy Team's bench. Nice job by me. Griffey notched # 596, a three-run shot to put the Reds up 8-2. Votto had the first 5 RBIs of the game. Freel knocked in the last RBI. Volquez was shaky but only allowed one run through five innings. He's young, so his 111 pitches in five innings is somewhat expected. However, after Fogg only went two innings yesterday, it would have been nice to get a few more out of our starter. Still, the relief was good, even Coffey. The Cubs played this one like they didn't need it. The Reds will take it, though. Didn't need to get swept again.

The Reds go home for a series against the Brewers. Pitching match-ups go as such:

Sheets/Arroyo - advantage Milwaukee
Suppan/Cueto - wash
Gallardo/Harang - advantage Cinci

Be nice to turn things around and take the series. Do it Reds!!!

 

Taking one of three - and worse, the last one of the three twice in a row now - against division rivals just isn't gonna cut it. Today, we lucked out as the Brewers went ahead 3-1 in the 10th and it looked all the world like the broom was out for the second time this year.

Early returns are not good for the Reds. Dunn is still quiet. Our run production for our pitchers has not been good, especially our young studs. While three of our five starting pitchers have been good, Arroyo and Fogg have been pretty much atrocious. Both could stand to be replaced, and With Mark Belisle returning from rehab, it looks like Fogg has been moved to the bullpen (and Weathers placed on the DL). We're not getting many innings out of those two, and they've mounted the losses. I like Arroyo's chances to turn it around rather than Fogg's, even though Fogg is the one with the lone win right now, andit looks like Dusty Baker sees it my way on this one... for now.

Patterson came back to earth pretty quickly, and now he's hitting below the Mendoza line. Brandon Phillips has only been average at the plate. Junior's been good, but he cannot carry us alone. While Votto's bat has awakened, he still hasn't taken a walk, so his OBP is his batting average. Holy Jeff Francoeur, Batman! Still, I like him as our first baseman of the present and future, but I'd like to see a little patience while not losing the aggressiveness. Is that a paradox? I don't think so. I think it'll happen. We really don't have a lead-off hitter. Kepp is the real bright spot in the line-up. He seems pretty consistent every day. Be interesting to see what happens when Gonzo returns. Hopefully, the recent power surge EdE has shown means that Encarnacion has broken out of his offensive slump. That could help things immensely if he and Votto are hitting. Now, we just need to get guys on base.

Penny vs. Belisle (vs. Dodgers) coming up on Monday at GABP. Not sure I love this match-up, but Belisle has pitched great in rehab. Let's hope it continues. We need some wins. Dodgers have been laboring, too. We need to break out first in this next series. Game 1 is a big one.

 

Rehashing Monday's game against the Dodgers:

Pluses:

Joey Votto hit a HR and took his very first BB of the season. Hurray!
Edwin Encarnacion is out of his slump. He's playing well.

Negatives:

4 & 5 pitchers have been sure losses for the Reds
Freel caught stealing again
We lost
Just about everything else

 

Exhibit A of why wins and losses for pitchers mean so little: Aaron Harang. Here's his line:

Games Started: 7
Wins: 1
Losses: 4
IP: 48.1
Hits: 41
Runs: 18
ER: 16
ERA: 2.98
HR: 5
BB: 11
SO: 41
OBP: .232
WHIP: 1.08

If Harang received any run production, his record could easily be flipped to 4-1. Averaging almost 7.0 innings a start, a very good SO-BB ratio, fine WHIPs and OBP, and a sub-3.00 ERA... those are elite pitcher numbers. And with these numbers and this start, he'd be an early favorite, along with a few others, for Cy Young contention if he just had wins. Harang is the Reds' horse, and he's pitched like it. But... he's 1-4.

Be all that as it may, the Reds early swoon has really taken the luster off the beginning of the season. They're not getting enough guys on and into scoring position. People have complained that they're not hitting with runners in scoring position, but that's not true. They're actually pretty high in the NL in that category. They just are getting waaaaaay fewer guys on and into that position than the division leaders and teams above them. Also, their overall starting pitching hasn't been great to this point, especially at the end of their rotation, but it's been good enough to have a few more wins - again, Harang is Example # 1. We don't have a lead-off hitter, and that hurts. I think things will level out, and we'll get some wins in some of these games we should have. But we're falling pretty far behind here early. It hurts me to know, we're putting all that money into Cordero, and he only has four saves (in as many chances). We just have to get to him, and we're not doing it. And now Rosenthal on FoxSports is already throwing out Dunn and Griffey as names for the trade market.

We need some wins.

 

Now that they've drafted Yonder Alonso (from the U), and I don't think he'll be too long in the Minors, if you can believe what you read (hardy har har), Votto may end up in the outfield, and Alonso the 1st baseman of the future. Especially if the Reds end up trading Adam Dunn, which I think is likely. Personally, I'd like to see Dunn resigned for about three years - four at max - but increasing pressure to trade might end up being too much for Jockety and the other Reds brass to pass up. I don't think we can get a good return on Dunn, certainly not what he's worth, but we'll get some kind of a return if we trade. Hopefully, it stockpiles more young talent.

Also, as bad as he's pitched up in the Majors, I'm not giving up on Homer Bailey, and I think he could be added to that list in the near future. A year or so ago, he'd probably be at the top of any futures list. Now, not so much - but he's still very young, a pitcher, and should not be given up on.

There's even some guys down in the farm leagues that are exciting, so the future is bright. Let's just hope it get here sooner than later. A lot like another team in a different sport that I cheer for, huh?