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Study Confirms it: We Suck at the NFL Draft!

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by GARDENHEAD, Apr 4, 2011.

  1. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    We had to get our Roddy White last year, we still don't have our Michael Turner, and let's not talk about our Tony Gonzalez. Also, Dan Henning.
     
  2. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Matt Ryan is lighting up the NFL? There were 10 QBs that had higher ratings than him last season. At this point, he's an above average QB, but he's not any better than the Flaccos, Schaubs, Freemans, Cassels, Eli Mannings, Jay Cutlers, etc. of the league.
     
  3. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Carey was a stop gap at LT, I thought he did a good job but he wasn't the answer imho. Look at how much trouble speed rushers gave him last season and that was on the RHS.

    Maybe I'm crazy but I genuinely believe it's too early to give up on Henne. Now if Henne had the running threat that Ryan had last year plus probably the best receiving TE ever and still was putting up ratings in the 70's then I'd seriously consider binning him.

    I also believe that if you swapped Ryan for Henne last year on our team most would be screaming for a new QB claiming Ryan sucks, is a bust etc. Given the state of our running game and play calling last year I'm not sure there is a single young QB in the game that would have succeeded.

    All the young QB's who had success last year had strong running games to support them or game plans that didn't abandon the run. Looking at rushing attempts over the season we see that Flacco (5), Cassell (1), Ryan(6) with Freeman being an exception (14) but the Bucs did average nearly 4.6 ypa (compared to our 3.7).

    If I were a Jets fan I would be very worried about Sanchez as he posted a lower rating than Henne while having a great running game, 2 good/great WR's and a very good receiving TE. He has the makings of a bust.

    Incidentally most people believe Bradford was outstanding for a rookie yet he and Henne posted very similar numbers while their running games both sucked.
     
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  4. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    I'll give you props on your rant it may be one of the best I've seen here in quite some time. While you stand up there on the cliff or take the plunge or whatever it is you do I'm going to patiently wait to see how Henne does under Daboll before you have to put me on suicide watch like all the other Henne bashers. Look man you would have to be out of your freakin' skull or very high or something not to see that Henning and Lee destroyed any chance of development for the young QB. I thought most were smart enough to see and process what was going on here. You get set up for disaster and what do you get? Well you guessed it disaster.
    As impatient and off your meds as you are I would figure you would want no part of a QB like Newton. He has to re-learn everything.... his feet, his mechanics, his pocket awareness etc. This guy is a major project and I doubt he ever pans out in the NFL. Could be more about icon status.
    As far as this thread it was a creative way to sneak in a chance to bash Henne and say he sucks and call him a bust and all. Not hard to see that was your objective. I can read your deal a mile away. Too bad you have to muddy up the board with your garbage spewing about OUR QB!
     
  5. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    1. I want Henne to succeed. I simply have no confidence in him. Yes, the coaches sucked, but I think you're giving him too much slack for his poor performances.
    2. Cam Newton will dominate the NFL, just like he dominated the toughest conference in college football.
    3. I hope I'm wrong about Henne and Cam Newton, cause I don't think he'll make it past Buffalo at #3. If Buffalo drafts Cam, I'll be a bigger Cam hater than YOU!
     
  6. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I'm a Nate Irving fan myself.
     
  7. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    That is true. But there are 2 sides to it. 1 side is yours.
    The other side is you don't bring a rookie QB into a 1-15 situation, and ask him to start with an Oline that might've gotten him destroyed, along with what appeared to be a horrendous WR-TE unit that only had Ted Ginn and David Martin returning who combined for 724 yards in 2007.
    Camarillo hadn't done anything before 08.
    Bess was a complete surprise.
    Fasano was previously a backup in Dallas.

    Everyone wants a franchise QB, but if you put too much pressure on them by not giving them the ability & tools to succeed, there's a decent chance they wont. Carson Palmer's oline destroying him is a good example, as is what's happened to Stafford so far. These are only 2 of MANY examples. Sure, Matt Ryan looks great in Atlanta, but that doesn't mean he would've turned out the exact same way here b/c he would've been in an entirely different situation, especially with Henning, ultra-conservative Sparano, and our unfriendly QB offense
     
  8. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    tell that to all the teams who have destroyed these "franchise QBs" because they had no Oline to keep them off IR. There is absolutely NOTHING beneficial about trying to develop a young QB behind a line that has him running for his life while having little talent around him to throw to.
     
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  9. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Your forgetting the solid Oline across the board and a FB who didn't disappear last year. :tongue2:
     
  10. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    Over the last 5 years goes too far back into other regimes that are not currently here. And there for, those results are completely irrelevant to how we should evaluate our current regime when it comes to drafting.

    This current regime has done pretty damn well in the draft. Seems to have done well in the first round all 3 years (Odrick is hurt but he has looked good so far), as well as got other good players in rounds after (SSmith, Langford, Hartline, Bess, Clemmons, Misi, Jerry, etc).

    We are hitting on a solid percentage of our picks. No team comes even close to 100%. We are doing pretty well...
     
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  11. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Exactly, and when it came playoff time, he took a doodie on the 20 yard line. If it weren't for a 101 yard kickoff return and a TD in garbage time, Ryan loses to the Packers 48-7 with 186 yards and 2 INTs......... with about 120 of those yards and his lone TD coming after GB had already put up 42 points.

    So through 40 minutes of the play Matty Ice threw for roughly 60 yards, 2 INTs (1 pick 6), and 0 TDs. His INTs led to more pts than his offense scored during this time.


    If Miami's ground game, defense, and special teams played like Atlanta's during the regular season, then we would've made the playoffs........ and there's no way that Ryan's performance was any better than anything Henne would've given.

    Ryan's a great prospect; however when his ground game has only 13 rushing attempts & his defense is giving up too many big plays, and he has pressure put on him to carry his team just like Henne was faced with ALL YEAR, Matt collapsed.


    Let's look at the game:

    -Atlanta and GB are tied 7-7.
    -Atlanta takes a KO 101 yards for a TD. now 14-7.
    -GB scores next possession. 14-14.
    -Atlanta: RYAN throws an INT in the redzone.
    -GB: Falcons give up (2) 20 yards passes & 20 yard TD. 21-14 Packers.
    -Atlanta: (after 35 yards of PI penalty yards) RYAN throws a pick 6 on GBs 35 yard line. 28-14 Packers.

    *** That's 2 Ryan INTs and a resulting 14 Packer points within 2 minutes and 20 seconds of halftime.

    -GB scores on opening 2nd half drive. 35-14.
    -Atlanta: Ryan goes 3 and out.
    -GB scores off short field opportunity. 42-14.
    -Game over...... Ryan screwed the pooch.
     
  12. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The solution to the "don't draft a QB cause the o-line sucks" argument is to keep the QB on the bench for a year. You let the kid learn the playbook and work on the o-line in the interim. The point is that franchise QBs are nearly impossible to find. Dolphins fans should know this. When you have an opportunity to take one, you take one. You don't make excuses.
     
  13. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Matt Ryan had a bad game. He might as well retire!
     
  14. finsincebirth

    finsincebirth Well-Known Member

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    If we are doing all this hindsight is 20/20 crap, wouldn't it have been better to draft long at 1 and then trade back into the first for Flaco? That way you still get a HOF lt and a franchise qb.
     
  15. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Let's look at Flacco too.

    If Henne had Joe's ground game, defense, outlet receivers, and special teams, Miami makes the playoffs just like the Ravens.

    Conversely, when the Ravens make the playoffs and their ground game is shut down to 16 rushes for 36 yards and the game is put on Flacco's shoulders, Joe takes a similar Matt Ryan dump---- 16/30, 125, 1 TD, 1 INT, and 1 fumble...... even though his defense created 2 MAJOR fumbles to help him out.

    -Pitt is up 7-0.
    -Balt gets 33 yards from PI call and 14 yard Rice TD run. 7-7.
    -Balt defense sacks Ben, recovered for TD. 14-7 Balt.
    -Pitt misses a FG.
    -Balt: Flacco gets his lone TD after Mendenhall fumbles on Pitt's 16 yard line. 21-7 Balt.

    -Pitt scores off Rice fumble. 21-14 Balt.
    -Balt: Flacco 3 and out.
    -Balt: Flacco INT on horrendous overthrow into double coverage 30 yards down field giving Pitt ball on Ravens' 25.
    -Pitt scores of short field opportunity. Tied 21-21.
    -Balt: Flacco muffs the snap on Ravens 23 (Pitt recovers).
    -Pitt scores off short field opportunity. 24-21 Pitt.
    -Balt: Flacco gets shortfield opportunity thanks to Joe Webb punt return to Pitt 29. Only gets a FG. Tied 24-24
    -Pit scores TD. 31-24 Pitt
    -Balt: returns kick to Pitt 48. (1:33 left in the game for Flacco to win it.) Flacco goes 4 and out and blows it.

    <It doesn't get any easier for a QB than the above>

    ****Flacco did nothing but screw his team despite his defense & special teams making every effort to keep him in the game. The defense created 2 early TOs to give Joe 14 pts to work with, and Joe gives it right back to Pitt with 2 short field scoring opportunities. Joe had no ground game; the offense was put on his shoulders, and he FAILED MISERABLY (worse than anything Henne did all season considering how much Flacco's defense and special teams helped him out.****

    Flacco & Ryan look great when things are going great for them, but they look just as bad as Henne did when they were in similar situations to what Henne saw virtually ALL SEASON. Sure, Flacco looked great against KC, but it's easy to look great when his defense allows 161 yards while forcing 5 turnovers (including 2 shortfield scoring opportunities for Joe on KC's 31 & 17), and his backs rush for 125 yards and a 25 yard TD.
     
  16. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    The reason why those teams work is because we beat Green Bay with Henne at QB, before the HUGE meltdown, and we beat the Steelers if not for Steratore. But look, winning a bunch of regular season games makes up for ****ting the bed in the playoffs for Dolphin fans. Why do you think everyone praises what Pennington did with the easiest schedule in the world and ignores how he threw 4 INT's against Balt in the playoffs? Those 11 wins apparently even made up for the ****ty job he did at the beginning of the 2009 season.
     
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  17. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Of course you'd say that. I love how you bash Henne when he doesn't do well in similar situations, but when Ryan does it, you make sarcastic comments.

    Ryan & Flacco are NOTHING SPECIAL right now. Their teams made the playoffs b/c of an ENTIRE TEAM effort, not because their QBs carried them there. The point is, these guys have virtually as many problems as Henne when the offense is similarly placed on their shoulders (and I gave you 2 prime big-game examples to back it up). The only difference is Henne was faced with this type of pressure for an ENTIRE SEASON.
     
  18. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    tell that to the teams who draft these "supposed" franchise QBs who are in need of help at the position and have an organization and fan base bearing down on them.

    You're also assuming that the Oline "will develop", and you're also WASTING a year's worth of 1st round performance b/c you have him sitting on the bench.

    Apparently you haven't seen our Oline problems the past few years DESPITE having an OLine guy as a HC and the efforts we've attempted to rectify the problem. Could you imagine what it would look like if we didn't draft Long?! Do you HONESTLY think Matt Ryan could succeed behind this crap that doesn't include Jake?! Gimme a break. We would've destroyed Matt.
     
  19. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Baltimore was significantly worse in pass protection than Miami, and Atlanta wasn't much better. Both those teams had plenty of issues with personnel. Ryan and Flacco, are IMO, average to slightly above average. I can't say the same for Henne. How many games did either have them have with multiple INTs? Each of those QBs had 15+ more TDs than INTs. Chad Henne threw more INTs than TDS.
     
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  20. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Neither the Atlanta nor St. Louis teams had all world OLines when they drafted QBs. The Steelers made the Super Bowl with a patchwork line. The Green Bay line wasn't stellar for most of the season either, with guys like Clifton getting by more on rep than any remaining ability. I think a franchise QB can help overcome team weaknesses, while an OK to mediocre QB needs to have the team built up to have even a small chance at success. Not every team that makes the playoffs has 5 first rounders lining up.
     
  21. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    That's a reach. Atlanta allowed 23 sacks, so I'm not sure what you're talking about....... and at least Flacco had Rice and Heap to dump it off to under pressure.

    Their "personnel issues" were NOTHING like what we faced on offense.
     
  22. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Good QBs can avoid sacks - that stat is hardly the final arbiter of whether an OL is good or not.

    Heap imo hasn't been very good for several years now. Henne could have dumped it off to Fasano is equivalent.
     
  23. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Pitt has a mobile QB. GB has a mobile QB. Matt Ryan is NOT a mobile QB. Big difference. Rodgers & Ben can scramble well under pressure; where as Ryan would get clobbered by it.

    St Louis SKIPPED on a franchise QB in order to build their Oline first. Remember their #2 overall pick Jason Smith the year before Bradford? So to correct you, the Rams did EXACTLY what we did---- they went LT before QB. They also spent $29 million on Jason Brown the year before Bradford.

    Now if we refer to the teams who destroyed young "franchise hopeful" QBs behind poor a Oline, then this total would far exceed the number of "franchise hopeful" QBs who went on to become franchise QBs behind a poor Oline.

    I've already done a correlation between top 15 pick QBs who busted behind Olines that gave up 40+ sacks. The number is ridiculously high. It's not wise to make a $60 million dollar investment that greatly contradicts what probability tells us.
     
  24. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Cmon now. Have you even seen Atlanta play? Atlanta's 23 sacks aren't because Ryan has a Marino quick release or Flacco type mobility. The Falcons have a very good line.

    Heap isn't very good? Did you watch him against us? Oh, and thanks for leaving out Rice as if he isn't a difference maker all by himself. lol.
     
  25. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Top 3rd, compared to Henne at 26. Most importantly, a 2 to 1 TD/INT ratio. That isn't Tom Brady but it isn't bad. What hurts his rating is the YPA
     
  26. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I agree. Ryan is much better than Henne. As I said, he's slightly above average. But I don't think that makes him worthy of the #1 overall pick necessarily.
     
  27. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    :lol: Nice.

    Miami fans seem delusional. Sorry to whomever that offends, but it's true. Marino really destroyed us. lol. We hold our QB to a ridiculous standard even when the rest of the team falls apart and shows no consistency during a time when the QB should be allowed to develop w/o a tremendous amount of pressure on him to carry a team.


    The fans turn Pennington 2008 into a national holiday despite facing the easiest schedule this century in a division that didn't have Brady or Rex Ryan, and while having a surprise gimmick formation to help him out.

    Then the hypocrisy kicks in as these fans completely disregard how horrendous Penny looked in his final 4 games (0-4 record, 6 INTs, 2 lost fumbles, and <excluding garbage time> would've had 0 TDs and QB ratings of 68, 76, 50ish, and 30ish) while blasting Henne despite never performing that badly over a 4 game stretch. Plus Penny performed this poorly with a mostly healthy offense around him.

    Penny 09: 76 QB rating (would be <70 if not for the Atl TD in garbage time), 137 YPG, 5.6 avg, 1 TD (1.4 TD%), 2 INTs (2.7 INT%), 2 lost fumbles, long of 21, 1 20+ yard pass per 24.7 attempts.

    Henne 09: 75.2 QB rating, 206 YPG, 6.4 avg, 12 TDs (2.7 TD%), 14 INTs (3.1%), 0 fumbles lost in 451 attempts, long of 67, 1 20+ yard pass per 19.6 attempts.


    Without a ground game and against good defenses, Penny performed worse than Henne. Did Penny "regress" that badly?.... or did he simply have a difficult time in a non-friendly QB offense?

    If 9 year veteran Penny can play this poorly here in 09 (despite a ground game averaging 161 yards/game in his 3 games), then I have a hard time believing that a young & developing QB like Henne could fair any better despite conditions getting EVEN WORSE in 2010 with an unhealthy line and ZERO ground game.

    However, at least Henne was 6-1 when his running backs rushed for over 100 yards.
    ****The lone loss was vs Detroit where Chad's laser passing into tropical storm type winds led to 27 pts and a 10 point lead with less than 5 minutes in the game. However, our defensive melt down forced us into an obvious passing situation <into these 30 MPH winds> b/c OUR GROUND GAME DISAPPEARED during the last 7 minutes of the game (with 4 total runs of 1 yard, -6 yards, -1 yard, and a run on 3rd and 16).


    This Detroit game is our season in a nutshell. Let's break it down:
    (Miami is ahead 27-17 with 7:30 left in the game. We need a ground game to run out the clock. Ooooops!!!)
    Miami
    1st & 10: Ronnie run for 1 yard (typical!!) putting Henne in 2nd and long into a serious wind.
    2nd & 9: pass INC rather than running to eat up the clock (no confidence in the ground game; looks like confidence in Henne considering the circumstances).
    3rd & 9: (which was set up by the 1 yard gain on 1st down): Henne to Marshall for 11. 1st down.
    1st & 10: Ronnie run for -6. (should've set up a 2nd down run; instead forces Henne to pass into a crazy wind with only 2 starters at WR & TE)
    2nd & 16: pass INC to practice squadder, Shuler.
    3rd & 16: Ronnie run for 10 yards. (running on 3rd and long-- also typical).
    4th & 6: Punt.

    Detroit
    -returns punt 23 yards to the 47. (Miami giving up a long punt return to set up a short field opportunity-- yes, typical)
    1st & 10: Best 53 yard TD. (defense giving up a long, game-changing TD-- yup, typical)

    <Score 27-24 with 4:37 left>
    Miami
    1st 10 at Mia 29: Ricky run for -1.
    2nd & 11: Henne INC (should've been a clock eating run if the ground game picked up yards on 1st down)
    3rd & 11: Henne INT to practice squadder Shuler who stops his route. This INT was set up by Ricky running for a loss on 1st down. (This play should've been a run to eat up clock or a 3rd & manageable pass, not Henne throwing into the wind to a guy who didn't play all season when defenses know it's coming).

    Detroit
    -Kicks FG.
    <Score tied 27-27>.

    Miami
    -touchback on kickoff.
    1st & 10: Henne inc to Bess.
    2nd & 10: Henne pressured, scrambles 2 yards.
    3rd & 8: Henne INT after Bess falls down. (non-existent ground game forced us into predictably passing 3 times in a row)
    <34-27 Detroit>

    Miami
    Penalty on KO gives us the ball on our own 8 with only 2 minutes left-- typical Fins. (We can't run and we're playing into the wind)
    1st 10: Henne pressured, scrambles 4 yards.
    2nd 6: Henne pressured again, but 15 yard face mask on Suh.
    1st 10: Henne to Ronnie for 7.
    2nd 3: Henne to Marshall for 7.
    1st 10: Henne to Marshall for 8.
    2nd 2: Henne to Brown for 7.
    1st 10 at Detroit 46: Henne to Shuler for 16 down to the 30. (Oh wait---- Chop block on Jerry for 16 yards.)
    1st 26 on Mia 38: Henne to Ricky for 13.
    2nd 8: Henne inc to Brandon.
    3rd 8: Henne to Shuler for 16.
    1st 10 at Detroit 28: Henne inc.

    Game over.



    This is typical of our season.

    -We had a chance to put the game away, however, our ground game died, special teams allowed a big return, defense allowed a huge TD, and the Oline had a costly drive killing penalty when we were moving toward tying the game.

    -With a 10 pt lead and less than 8 minutes in the game, the ground game ran 3 times on 3 consecutive first downs for a total of -6 yards!!
    That's not how you close out a game! You don't close out a game by giving up a 53 yard TD & a punt return to the 48 leading to a FG, and you don't close out a game by having to pass into the wind on EVERY down (6 downs, 6 passes) with a 3 point lead and 4 minutes left in a game. Yet, all that many fans do is blame Henne for throwing 2 INTs.


    Matt Ryan, Flacco, Freeman, Sanchez, or Bradford would've faired no better, and they would've faired no better during the rest of our season when this same crap was occurring on a regular basis.
     
  28. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Top 3rd QB vs top LT. I'll take the QB. Now, this isn't addressed directly at you Stringer, but What good is Fort Knox with only the back door has a steel door and a deadbolt on it, and the side doors, and front doors are screen doors, and there is no gold inside. :D
     
  29. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    What good is having gold inside it when everyone and their mother's can get to it b/c there's no fort around it to keep people out? lol.
     
  30. TotoreMexico

    TotoreMexico Your retarded

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    I thought he was lighting up the NFL
     

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