1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

For those still hung up on the wide receiver position.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KB21, Apr 18, 2011.

  1. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

    24,029
    40,478
    113
    Dec 6, 2007
    Here is a great article that details some of the points I made last year when many of you wanted to use a high draft pick on a wide receiver and then supported the trade for Brandon Marshall.

    http://coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3677_A_CHFF_theory_elevated_to_Man_Law.html

    It is Man Law, gentlemen!! It is foolish to invest a high draft pick and a bunch of money into a position that makes such a small impact on your team and is completely dependent upon everyone around them.

    There are some of you still hung up with the idea that "oh, we absolutely have to get that deep threat!"

    No, we don't absolutely have to get that deep threat. What we absolutely have to get is better, more consistent quarterback play, much better offensive line play, a much better running game, and much better special teams play. You fix that, and the rest will take care of itself. It won't matter who you have at wide receiver.

    How much of an impact did Brandon Marshall make? He had a nice season, but Miami scored almost 100 more points in the previous year when they didn't have him when they could actually run the ball a little.

    Here's more:

    http://coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3714_Draft_Primer:_those_shiny_wide_receivers.html

    BTW, I really like Greg Salas as a receiver prospect. If we could get him in the 5th or 6th round, we might just have the guy that will end up being the most productive wide receiver in this draft.

    http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/P...t/Draft_2011_WR Draft history_3-17-11_1.0.htm

    How many of you knew that in the past ten years, the top two rated receivers in the draft have actually become the best two receivers out of the respective drafts ZERO times. ZERO!! Only a few times has the top rated guy actually been the best receiver.

    Wide receivers are fools gold. Their play is directly contingent upon the play of the quarterback and the offensive line blocking for that quarterback, and their play overall makes very little impact on the team. There is so much evidence that proves it that it isn't even worth arguing any longer.
     
    gafinfan likes this.
  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    I think you have to use some relative perspective..Is jerry rice, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Michael Irvin worth their first round status to their teams, I would say a resounding yes, no?..If your a team that has its QB yet has a void at receiver, do you let an AG green go by?...Iam just asking first to see how far down the board your talking here?
     
  3. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    I like Salas, too, but we need another possession receiver like Cromartie needs more kids.
     
  4. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    I agree in principal, you spend the big bucks on the premium positions, QB, LT, CB, DE/OLB. But I disagree w/ the idea that its unwise for us to pursue a deep threat. I'm not asking gor Sidney Rice for Julio Jones, just a guy who can stretch the field and create space for Marshall. I think we can all agree that we shouldn't be paying Marshall 50 million to be a decoy so that we cant feed our studs, Hartline & Bess.
     
    Ludacris likes this.
  5. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    you answered your own question.

    fixed

    Being the devil's advocate here, but you could probably make that argument for nearly every position. I'm pretty sure DE is one of them.

    Tell this to the Jets who won 11 games due to their receivers making big plays for a mediocre QB, helping lead NY to an AFC Championship appearance in the process. Devil's advocate again and all.
     
  6. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

    24,029
    40,478
    113
    Dec 6, 2007
    Well, you would think the Jets would have had an offensive explosion from the previous season then. Yep. A whole 1.1 points per game more than the previous season. That's your wide receiver impact. They scored 1.1 points per game more, and Mark Sanchez's completion percentage increased 1% and his YPA decreased 0.2 yards per pass attempt.

    Here's the key with the Jets. First, they get consistent quarterback play and don't ask their young quarterback to do too much. Second, they have an outstanding offensive line that protects their quarterback, does well at the POA for their power running game, and blocks decently at the second level. Third, they have a strong running game that does well on first down. Fourth, they have a strong defense that keeps other teams off the score board and also gives its offense good field position. Fifth, they can flip the field with their special teams. If they lose Brad Smith as a return guy, it will have much more of an effect on their team than if they lose either Braylon Edwards or Santonio Holmes. Their impact on the game and team is nearly meaningless.

    If you want a speed receiver, get one that can return kicks and punts. He will have much more of an impact as a return specialist than he will as a wide receiver. Just don't draft him before the third round.
     
    2xBlown and gafinfan like this.
  7. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    How often in the past 10 years do the two top-rated anythings actually become the best two players at their position for that draft? I'll bet it's pretty rare!
     
    ToddsPhins likes this.
  8. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    I agree, Ive been saying the guy you want threatening the top of the defense has to be the full time returner as well, the returner part must be respected, its too valuable to the defense and to the offense, we cant disrespect the void by throwing some late round player there and hoping, to find a player that can do both, Iam willing to spend a 3rd rounder on him...

    I said the same thing last year, Javier arenas and Dexter Mccluster were the players I was after in my mock, unfortunately they both went 1 round earlier than I had expected...

    I think you have to look hard at JJernigan, Young, and Little with your 3rd round pick.
     
  9. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

    21,176
    10,130
    113
    Jan 14, 2008
    Hornell, NY
    I can agree that adding a flashy WR doesn't make a ton of sense if you don't have an established QB. I think a lot of us made the mistake of thinking Chad Henne could be that guy quicker sooner than later after his '09 campaign.

    And the article ignores examples of great WRs helping teams. Yeah, the Pats did well without Randy Moss. But how much did he help them in 2007? Someone want to crunch the difference in offensive production for them in '06 - '07?
     
  10. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

    7,612
    1,578
    0
    Oct 11, 2010

    The Pats scored about 12 points more per game with Moss.
     
    MonstBlitz likes this.
  11. Onehondo

    Onehondo Senior Member Club Member

    2,671
    879
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Chesapeake, Virginia
    You have to ask yourself what position would have the biggest impact on "our" team in this draft. Would it be Quarterback? Since Henne is still a big question mark. Would it be Offensive Line? Since our line is still a big question mark at several positions. Is it a speedy Wide Receiver to compliment B. Marshall? There's still a question mark at Wide Receiver, even though Brandon Marshall was the Dolphin's biggest investment last season. Or is it Running Back? Considering we have nothing but question marks at that position, and we are losing both of our aged starters, and had such a poor running game last year.
    The Defense seems to be very close to being a very good Defense, but the Offense seems to have more questions than answers, especially with a new untested Offensive Coordinator.
     
  12. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    That stat is flawed due to the fact that they ran up the score because they are *******s.
     
    MarinePhinFan likes this.
  13. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

    21,176
    10,130
    113
    Jan 14, 2008
    Hornell, NY
    The stat isn't flawed for the purpose of this discussion. The reason they were able to run up the score was in large part because of Randy Moss. This isn't to take anything away from Tom Brady who is an elite QB, no doubt. But Randy Moss in 2007 helped Tom Brady take his game to a whole new level.

    Agreed that the Pats were / are *******s. That's why it was so great to see them fail in the only game that really mattered for them in '07 and struggle in the playoffs ever since. Karma is a *****.
     
  14. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009
    [​IMG]

     
  15. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    The Patriots were the #1 scoring offense in the NFL this past season without Moss. They didn't score as much as they did in 07, but they also controlled the ball a lot better. The problem with having Randy Moss on your team is that you are forced to throw the ball deep a lot, and usually into coverage. That style of play is going to put a lot of pressure on your defense.
     
  16. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

    21,176
    10,130
    113
    Jan 14, 2008
    Hornell, NY
    Not if executed properly. We have seen where this style of play executed by teams like the Pats in '07, Colts, Packers, and Saints greatly helps the defense. By opening up the offense and putting points on the board, the opposing offense is going to have to take more chances in playing catch up. Meaning the defense can pin their ears bag and play aggressive.
     
    ToddsPhins likes this.
  17. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

    24,029
    40,478
    113
    Dec 6, 2007
    I am more convinced now than I have ever been that wide receivers are dime a dozen, and that the premium positions are quarterback, left tackle, passrusher, and corner. Those are the positions I would invest money and high picks on.
     
  18. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

    1,775
    646
    113
    Apr 21, 2008
    Aurora, Colorado
    I'm still hung up on it though OL is the bigger need. Having a QB that is efficient and uses 5+ receivers a game is great but those receivers must be good in different aspects of the passing game versus good defenses to be successful. If the receivers are too similar in what they do then a good defense has an excellent chance of controlling the game. I think the Dolphins receivers all fall into the same category. If you believe Marshall's will regain his alleged lost speed then maybe you can ignore the speed receiver we need, but honestly, how many guys with hip problems ever return to form?
     
    GMJohnson likes this.
  19. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    If that were the case, the Packers and Saints would have won Super Bowls before their defenses became good.

    But the point is, those teams need to score 20+ points a game. They aren't going to win a playoff game 10-7, because they don't have the ability to control the clock. Tom Brady threw 19 incompletions when they lost the Super Bowl. Thats 19 times they stopped the clock when it could have kept running.
     
  20. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

    14,282
    5,005
    113
    Sep 10, 2009
    Boone, NC
    Hankerson late 1st...
     
  21. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    I actually think that LT is overrated as well. Not that LT isn't important, they are, but the position is highly overrated.
     
  22. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

    21,176
    10,130
    113
    Jan 14, 2008
    Hornell, NY
    I can partially agree with this. Great QBs make any set of competent WRs look good. Still if you have a chance to add a top 5 stud WR to your lineup I think you do it. Especially if it's a position of need. I do not think Brandon Marshall was/is a mistake and I think he will prove that if we can ever get consistent QB play. Now if you wanna talk about a REAL dime a dozen position, let's talk about RB.
     
  23. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    I'm not sure what to make of the bold statement. I'll address it below. Secondly, their points per game and so forth might have looked negligibly different, but when NY needed a big play, Holmes and Edwards stepped up in a big way. They won MANY games for NY..... and sealed countless others.

    Braylon Edwards
    Miami: 67 yard TD (all Edwards) on the 1st play after we take a 17-14 lead. Was a nail in our coffin.
    Buffalo: 41 yard TD pass in 2nd qtr was the winning score.
    Denver: 32 yard TD was the difference in a 24-20 win.
    Detroit: 74 yard TD on 3rd and 9 in 23-20 win.
    Pitt: 38 yard catch for FG in 22-17 win. Without that play, Pitt is only down 19-17 and Pitt can instead kick a FG to win as time expires.
    Buffalo: 52 yard TD seals the game after an early 17-7 lead.

    Holmes
    Detroit: game winning 52 yard catch & run in OT (FG)......... 31 yard catch into FG range for Jets first score.
    Cleveland: game winning 37 yard TD with 0:24 left in OT (ALL Holmes run after catch).
    Houston: 41 yard TD (ALL Holmes run after catch) in 30-27 win. Game winning TD with 0:45 left.
    Cincy: 13 yard TD with 20 minutes left was the game winning score. (Holmes made a fool out of the DB).
    Buffalo: 17 yard TD is the deciding score.

    Indy Playoff game
    (Jets down by 2 with 0:45 left, on their own 46)
    1st play- Edwards for 9.
    2nd play- Holmes for 11 (speed gets him out of bounds to stop clock).
    4th play- Edwards for 18 (great play on a jump ball).
    5th play- FG to win with 0:03

    Pats playoff game
    Edwards: 37 yard catch on 3rd & 6 sets up TD 2 plays later. (Jets up 7-3)
    Edwards: 15 yard TD catch and run on 3rd and 5 before half time. ALL Edwards. (Jets up 14-3)
    Holmes: OUTSTANDING diving 7 yard TD on 3rd & 4. (Jets up 21-11 instead of 17-11 if he misses it). Basically the game saving TD.

    Pitt playoff game
    Holmes 45 yard TD to start the 3rd qtr keeps NY in the game

    Contrary to what you say about Sanchez's stats, ou can say what you want about Sanchez's stats, Holmes & Edwards had a MASSIVE impact on the Jets' success. 11 of NY's wins were directly related to a single play by one or both of them.

    I'm not sure where you get "consistent Sanchez", but "consistent Sanchez" is nothing without Holmes & Edwards.
     
  24. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    How did they "control" it against the Jets in the playoffs when it counted the most?
     
  25. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    So you're saying we couldn't have been a more effective & attacking defense if our offense put up more points? Sorry, don't buy it.
     
  26. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    Actually, they controlled the ball 9 minutes more.
     
  27. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    11,881
    4,834
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    As in TOP? I think Indy showed against us that TOP is not that important when you have the ability to strike quickly.
     
  28. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    That didn't help them control it into the endzone though. :tongue2:
     
  29. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    I am aware. I was simply going by what was said.

    :lol:
     
  30. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

    24,029
    40,478
    113
    Dec 6, 2007
    Why though? Why do you think having a top 5 stud WR is so important?

    The combined records of the teams with the top three receivers in the game today is 109-181. That is a 0.375 winning percentage. What kind of impact does a top 5 wide receiver make when Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Calvin Johnson don't make a dent into the win column for their respective teams?

    Running back is a dime a dozen as well, but wide receiver is the most overrated, least important position on the field.
     
  31. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

    24,029
    40,478
    113
    Dec 6, 2007
    Sanchez was just as consistent a year ago when he didn't have Edwards for part of the year and had Cotchery instead of Holmes.

    Again, there is no evidence out there that shows a wide receiver elevating the play of a team that makes him worth big money or a first round draft pick (or two second round draft picks).
     
  32. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    I'm not hung up on a WR transforming a team, however I do feel that it's a concerted effort by everyone..... and as such, a WR can have an impact. He doesn't have to impact constantly, but if he can win a game or 2 on his shoulders, then that could mean the difference between making the playoffs and not, while also easing the burden of a developing QB.

    I do agree with you on not needing a 1st round pick on one. Some of my favorite WRs the past 3 drafts weren't 1st rounders: Mike Wallace, Mike Williams, and Jacoby Ford. IMO Greg Little would be worth his weight in gold opposite Brandon Marshall with those 2 beasts' fire and competitiveness constantly pushing each other. And Jernigan would be a tremendous compliment to Marshall.
     
  33. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

    1,834
    513
    113
    Jan 3, 2008
    North Carolina
    i will always believe that you win championships with a tough stingy defense, a capable running game, good special teams - and an 'ability' to make plays downfield.

    we are: 1- 'almost there' on D, 2- nowhere on the running game (right now today), 3- not very good on special teams, and as a result of (2), 4- not very good on the ability to make plays downfield.

    we could argue all day long on how 2 & 4 are related ... and how much or whether or not Mallett or Ponder would effect (4) ... but I set my future and draft on 1, 2 & 3 ..... we do 1, 2 & 3 - and i'm confident even Henne can get us (4) ...
     
  34. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    Yes, the Dolphins need much better play from the running back position, the offensive line, and of course the Qb but I strongly disagree that Miami did not need to spend so much on a Wr last year. They absolutely needed it and may have paid a pretty steep price for Marshall but I'm estatic he is here. The one thing the Wr position could use now is some speed. I don't care how they get it and running back and the interior line should be top priority but man if Julio Jones is sitting there at 15, I'm down with taking him within the 1st minute of their allotted 15 minute time limit.


    Every offense needs playmakers. Period!
     
    ToddsPhins likes this.
  35. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

    24,029
    40,478
    113
    Dec 6, 2007
    Even with that, getting another wide receiver is nothing more than adding another shiny hood ornament when we have a poor driver, three flat tires, a run down alternator, and just happen to be out of transmission fluid.
     
  36. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Personally I wouldn't touch Jones with a 10 foot barge pole.

    I think back to the start of the 2000's and that great KC offence. They had next to zero at WR but Trent Green was throwing for 4000 yards and Priest Holmes was rushing for 1500 yards and it was all down to the OL.

    I'd much rather fix the interior of the OL before I go anywhere near a WR.
     
  37. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    We have 3 receivers. No matter what importance you place on the position, we need more than that.

    Kitna and his 76 previous career QB rating looked pretty impressive in a Dallas offense that scored 27.8 points per game during Kitna's 10 games (good for 2nd in the NFL) while Kitna finished with an 89 rating, his highest yards per attempt, and his most TDs & yards per game by far. They did this with the 16th ranked rushing offense. Just making an observation.

    Also, great QBs typically need great receivers for their greatness to show through. Go back through history and see how many great QBs had outstanding WRs to work with. The number is far greater than the ones who did not.

    Just for fun:

    Marino- Duper (3x Pro Bowl), Clayton (5x PB), Moore (1x PB).

    Montana- Won 4 SBs with Rice (HOF), Dwight Clark (2x All Pro), & John Taylor (2x All Pro).

    Joe Namath- won a SB with Don Maynard (HOF) & George Sauer (4x All Star) (combined for 2400 yards, 20 avg, and 14 TDs during 69 SB season)

    Daryle Lamonica- Fred Biletnikoff (HOF)

    YA Tittle- Del Hoffner (60's All-Decade Team), played together in straight 3 championships. Best 3 years of Tittle's career.

    Kenny Stabler- Biletnikoff (HOF) & Cliff Branch (HOF nominee). Won SB 77 together. (best years of Stabler's career).

    Kurt Warner- Won 2 SBs with Bruce (4x PB) & Holt (7x PB); almost another with Fitzgerald (5x PB), and Boldin (3x PB).

    George Blanda- won 2 straight AFL Championships with Charley Hennigan (AFL HOF) & Brill Groman (1x All Star) (combined for 5100 yards, 47 TDs, and 20 avg in 2 years) Blanda's best years.

    Warren Moon- didn't do anything for 4 years until he had Earnest Givens (2x PB), Drew Hill (2x PB), & Haywood Jeffires (3x PB).

    Steve Young: 1 SB with Rice, Taylor, & Terrell Owens (future HOF)

    Roger Staubach: Bob Hayes (HOF), Drew Pearson (70's All Decade Team), Tony Hill (3x PB) (2 SBs)

    Bob Griese: 2 SBs with Paul Warfield (HOF)

    Troy Aikman: 3 SBs with Michael Irvin (HOF)

    Terry Bradshaw: 4 SBs with Swann (HOF) & Stallworth (HOF)

    Norm Van Brocklin: Crazy Legs Hirsch (HOF), Tom Fears (HOF), Tommy McDonald (HOF), Pistol Pete Retzlaff (5x PB) (2 SBs)

    Sonny Jurgensen: Bobby Mitchell (HOF), Charley Taylor (HOF), Tommy McDonald (HOF), Pete Retzlaff (5x PB).

    Brett Favre: Sterling Sharpe (5x All Pro), Antonio Freeman (Packer HOF), Donald Driver (3x PB), Greg Jennings (1x PB), Sidney Rice (1x PB).

    John Elway: Shannon Sharpe (HOF; deserves to be included), Rod Smith (3x PB), Ed McCaffrey (1x PB), Vance Johnson.

    Peyton Manning: Marvin Harrison (8x PB, 2000 All Decade Team), Reggie Wayne (5x PB).

    Tom Brady: Troy Brown (1x All Pro), Wes Welker (3x All Pro), Randy Moss (7x PB).

    Bart Starr: Carrol Dale (HOF), Max McGee (Packer HOF), Boyd Dowler (60's All Decade Team).

    Johhny Unitas: Raymond Berry (HOF), Lenny Moore (HOF), John Mackey (HOF TE), Jimmy Orr (2x PB), Roy Jefferson (3x PB).

    Otto Graham: Dante Lavelli (HOF), Mac Speedie (40's All Decade Team).

    Dan Fouts: Charlie Joiner (HOF), Kellen Winslow (HOF TE), John Jefferson (4x PB), Wes Chandler (4x PB).

    Joe Theismann: Art Monk (HOF), Charlie Brown (2x PB).

    Jim Kelly: James Lofton (HOF), Andre Reed (7x PB).

    Boomer Esiason: Cris Collinsworth (3x PB), Eddie Brown (1x PB), Tim McGee.

    -Donovan McNabb: Best season was his only full season with Terrell Owens--- 2004 Offensive POY; 32 TDs; 104 QB rating (20pts higher than career avg).
    -Jeff Garcia: his 63 TDs in 2000 & 2001 (with Terrell Owens) were the most by any QB in NFL during that time. His best TD production w/o TO was 13.

    Fran Tarkenton- is one of the few not on the list, although he had 3 great years with the Giants 67-69: 2x Pro Bowler, Homer Jones (3300 yards, 28 TDs, 23 avg in 3 years)


    If the QB made the surrounding cast rather than the surrounding cast allowing the QB to reach his potential, then teams like Indy would've drafted defensive players in the first round rather than the countless offensive weapons for Peyton.
     

Share This Page