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Henne vs Matt Ryan; A QB who's been impaired by his team vs one helped by it.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ToddsPhins, May 11, 2011.

  1. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Since there are many factors that can positively or negatively influence a QB's performance, I figured I'd compare Atlanta to Miami (and Ryan to Henne) in the areas that cause the greatest impact. It was mentioned in another thread that Atlanta and Miami are similar; however, I would have to strongly disagree.

    Atlanta's Oline has been more effective and more consistent than ours.
    Their fullback was busy playing in the pro bowl rather than regressing like ours.
    Ryan has been aided by the 11th, 14th, and 5th ranked scoring defense, while Henne had the 14th & 25th.
    Per Football Outsiders, Atlanta had the #2 overall ranked Special Teams; Miami-- 29th.
    In 2009/10, Atlanta's avg starting field position ranked 7th & 10th; Miami-- 25th & 28th.
    Defensively, Atlanta ranked 6th & 7th in pts/drive allowed; Miami-- 25th & 13th.
    Defensively, Atlanta ranked 9th & 10th in TOs created per drive; Miami-- 26th & 26th.

    Atlanta has been able to run well out of their base offense which greatly opened up Ryan's passing game while also helping to finish off games when ahead in the points column. The Falcons didn't resort to a wildcat (that has no bearing on the passing game) when the ground game went stagnant. Defenses have to respect Michael Turner's impact, which is a huge benefit to Ryan. Henne had no such benefit.

    Atlanta's running backs tacked on better chunk yardage (10+ yard runs) and were tremendously more successful at gaining the all-important and key positive yardage on 1st downs that statistically sets up more successful 2nd and 3rd downs. Quality yardage on 1st down is the most significant aspect of a successful drive, yet thanks to our ground game we were putrid at it.


    Atlanta's backs picked up better 2nd down yardage that either moved the chains or set up more favorable 3rd downs and short, where as our run offense was horrible in this important facet.

    Miami's run game ranked 32nd at picking up yards at the 2nd level (28th in 2009), 32nd at yards gained in the open field (22nd in 2009), and 29th in TDs.

    Miami's run game ranked 28th (Atlanta 9th) based on the "Expected Points Added" metric (which uses the outcome of each play to predict drive success). IE: A run of less than 4 yards on first down has a negative affect on the potential success of a drive. The lower the yards gained, the less the potential success becomes. Statistically speaking, on 3rd down, an offense needs to be in 3rd & 2 to be at their break even point (meaning this particular down & distance has a more likely chance of success than 1st & 10 does). Hence, runs on 2nd down that leave an offense in greater than 3rd & 2 will have a negative impact on drive success. Anyone who paid attention to our 2010 season should know that our run offense thrust Henne into a ridiculous amount of 3rd and longs, which statistically speaking are drive killers when piled on top of each other. This becomes magnified when you lack playmakers capable of picking up chunk yardage to counter it.

    Our ground game ranked 30th in "Win Probability Added" (Atlanta ranked 8th). WPA measures each play in terms of how much it increased or decreased a team’s chances of winning the game. A score of 0 is the break even mark. Atlanta's RunWPA was +0.67, where as Miami's was a miserable -1.32. Miami was one of four teams to finish worse than -1.0. This means that our ground game did a splendid job of setting up our offense for failure. DESPITE THIS, thanks to Henne, our offense actually RANKED 11th in punts per drive % (0.481), which tells us we punted far less per drive than our studdering run-game statistics would lead us to believe.

    The combination of Miami's 28th ranked starting field position team, 26th ranked team in defensive TOs created, and one of the worst all around run offenses made things very difficult for a 2nd year starting QB to conduct long drive after long drive behind a battered Oline while having 6 practice squad players seeing time at skill positions, and that's not even taking into account all the unsuccessful wildcat and run plays that were called once inside FG range.

    Insult to injury, Miami faced the 3rd toughest Strength of Schedule (according to Football Outsiders). Atlanta's--- 22nd.
    In 2009, Miami's Strength of Schedule ranked 2nd. Atlanta- 6th.
    Atlanta's 2008 Strength of Schedule ranked 20th. Miami- 29th. (Must be nice for a Dolphin QB to face the 29th rated schedule and w/o Brady or Rex).


    I find it coincidental that in 2009, when Matt Ryan seemed to regress in his 2nd year (with an 80 QB rating, 14 INTs, 24th ranked in INT percentage per drive, and 58% completions):
    -Atlanta's 6th ranked strength of schedule was much more difficult than the one Ryan faced in 2008 (20th) & 2010 (22nd).
    -Atlanta's teams ranked 22nd, rather than the 7th & 2nd in 2008/2010. (still not as bad as Miami's 29th)
    -Offensive RunWPA was -0.277 in 2009 which is indicative of potential failure, compared to +1.10 in 2008 and +0.56 in 2010. (Isn't nearly as bad as the -1.32 RunWPA that Henne had to overcome)
    -Defense ranked 19th in pts/drive allowed compared to 6th in 2010. (Miami ranked 26th & 13th in 2009/2010)
    -D ranked 16th in INTs per drive vs #3 in 2010. (Miami ranked 19th & 26th in 2009/2010)
    -D ranked 24th in DSR (Drive Success Rate, which measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown) vs 15th in 2010.

    Many of the factors contributing to Henne's lack of 2010 success also caused significant problems for Matt Ryan during his 2nd season starting; the only difference is Chad's surrounding problems were greater. For example, Ryan's worst starting field position ranking during the past 2 years was 10th, where as Henne's was 23rd & 29th. Ryan didn't have a bone head calling plays; he didn't have an injured and constantly shuffled Oline; he wasn't surrounded by practice squad players or guys fresh off the street; unlike Henne, Ryan's hasn't had a revolving door at WR/TE the past 2 years; Matt wasn't playing with a sprained knee; and his playbook wasn't devised for a different QB.




    I'll throw in Sam Bradford for fun. When you compare Henne's aforementioned stats to Bradford's (who threw more TDs and less INTs than Henne) you see that the Rams ranked 29th in punts per drive % (0.485) compared to Miami's 11th ranked. Henne was actually much more successful at converting drives into points. However, their difference in production stems from multiple areas:
    1. Bradford was allowed nearly double the amount of pass attempts inside the redzone because his coach didn't shut down into FG mode (Sam's twice as many redzone attempts are all the more shocking considering Sam's offense had a higher punt percentage per drive).
    2. Rams ranked 8th in starting field position (compared to Miami's 29th), so Sam didn't have to march as far each drive, hence his margin for error was greater than Henne's.
    3. Sam's ground game had the fewest number of fumbles per drive in the NFL (Miami ranked 13th) so less drives were killed due to factors unrelated to the QB.
    4. Rams had the weakest strength of schedule in the NFL (ranked 32nd by Football Outsiders). It's FAR EASIER to have success against the weakest strength of schedule compared to the 3rd toughest.
    5. Rams' run offense had -0.25 RunWPA which is significantly better than Miami's -1.32. (Remember, WPA measures each play in terms of how much it increased or decreased a team’s chances of winning the game.)
    **Statistically, Henne was actually a better redzone performer than Bradford, only it wasn't apparent on paper due to the reasons listed above.


    I'm sure someone will ignorantly say that none of this has any bearing on QB play and is nothing more than excuse making.
     
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  2. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I guess the easy answer is that its obvious that Ryan is better by watching the two play. We all realize that our team had some major issues to solve and that the Falcons are better but still, Ryan has proven he can play in the NFL at a very high level, Henne has not. Atlanta traded basically an entire draft to help build around Ryan because he's a franchise guy. I hope for the best with Henne but he hasn't shown a lot of consistency that is necessary to succeed at the NFL level.
     
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  3. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    I dream of the day when we won't have to debate which circumstance(s) has caused our QBs failure. Good post. I agree that Ryan has had a better situation but I do still think he's a better QB and probably always will be.
     
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  4. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    If Henne can just cut down on his INTs, if Daboll can play to his strengths, unlike Henning try to fit the square peg into the round hole, then I believe we'll be OK.

    1st half of last season, I was extremely pleased with Henne's 3rd down passing. He and Bess got us out of a lot of trouble when our running game was sucking. But then we'd bog down near the red zone and kick field goals.
     
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  5. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Thing is, Henne plays well v the Jets, that is to say he wins games, the problem is Henne doesn't feast on the weaker opponents, the Browns and Bills etc.

    Agree with much of that TP, and of course it will be dismissed, the AFCE is a tough division.
     
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  6. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Outstanding, very well researched post Todd. You make some very convincing arguments. I fear however, the anti-Henne faction won't be swayed, while of course the pro-Henne camp already are convinced.
     
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  7. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    I still wonder how much of that is our coaches being too conservative vs the weaker opponents.
     
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  8. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, there is such a danger in pigeon holing a young Qb OF, maybe Henne does make the jump in his 3rd yr of starting, but I'd still bring in a proven Veteran who has shown what they can do in the NFL.

    I also suspect, but do not know, that Henne had throws that were preplanned to be made just to take away reading the field from him due to the playcalling which is why David Lee went bananas when Thigpen and Marshall deviated from the script in the patriots game.
     
  9. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    While I think Ryan has been helped by his team, I'm not sure it's fair to say Henne has been impaired by his. Rather, he just hasn't been helped as much. If Henne has been "impaired" for any reason, I think it is that he had to follow a guy like Pennington, who he only got to replace due to injury after Penny had just "led" the team to one of the biggest (W-L) turnarounds in NFL history.
     
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  10. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    Agree.
     
  11. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    [​IMG]

    Stat monkeys: With the power of math can make any QB look like Peyton Manning!
     
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  12. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    Henne vs Matt Ryan? :no:
    can't even begin to comprehend the mind that would actually attempt to compare the two in support of the hen. spin as it as you will, there is no favorable comparison. not drafting Matt Ryan was the second, but most devastating mistake Bill Parcells made with this franchise. unfortunately, there are no do-overs & the hen is no Matt Ryan.
     
  13. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    While I'm all for Henne getting another chance, I agree we need proven depth at QB. Orton for a 3rd or less makes sense to me, especially if we can get him to rework his contract.
     
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  14. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Agree about Orton doubt he would redo his contract, he is moving into his FA season why would he take a paycut beforehand?

    V Young is a different story.
     
  15. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I think any team that traded for Orton would want to work out a new contract or an extension as part of the agreement to trade. Not just Miami. No team is going to want to trade a 3rd or so, for basically a 1 yr deal at his 2011 base salary as it is now.

    Redoing his deal isn't necessarily a pay cut and I never said pay cut.
     
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  16. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Remember that time when people provided rebuttals rather than dismissals? Those were good times. If you can't rebut with a fact or two, don't post, but rather, entertain yourself to your Matt Ryan/Chad Pennington posters. Seriously, if the best you can come up with is LOL, NO!!, just don't post.
     
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  17. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    i don't think Todd is comparing Henne and Ryan at all, except for the 'environment' they operate in ...

    i still maintain that a fair comparison to Henne is Flacco -- while there are many who hold Flacco in high esteem ... albeit, he really hasn't proved anything - given the 'environment' he plays in ....
     
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  18. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    What is really frightening, this is all we have until the lockout ends.

    "If" we were sucky in 2010, we could easily chat about replacing so and so

    "If" we were really good in 2010, we could easily talk about a SB run.

    We have neither, 2010 was a sort of confused season of really good, really bad, and Ross going on a big adventure at the end of it all.

    Take heart though, there is still time for Stat Monkey to go through and see who Henne was most, and least, effective throwing the ball to..oh joy.
     
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  19. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    The stat monkey can make a QB look more favorable, he can't make a really bad QB look good. I'd like to see it tried with the dozen or so QBs that we started between Jay and Chad P, and see them make those bad QBs look good. I think TPs point is that there still is room for Henne to become a decent-to-good (but not great) QB if we get our ground game going again.
     
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  20. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Who put you in charge of determining how to respond to posts? The premise of the OP is absurd to anyone with eyeballs who has actually watched Ryan and Henne play. The OP is just one excuse after another.
     
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  21. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

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    All valid stats...although I wouldn't say based on abilities that Henne has the upside that Matt Ryan does. I do find it encouraging that we can talk about this Henne v Ryan debate without certain individuals trying to take over a thread with their incessant love of Matt Ryan.

    I think the strength of schedule stat is one to really look at here. The Falcons (and more specifically Ryan) were not nearly as good in 2009 and having the 6th hardest schedule played into that. Now elite QB's are supposed to take that hard SOS, push it aside, take over their teams, and continue to be elite. Ryan did not do that which leads me to believe that at that point he was not an elite QB in this league. Only his 2nd year in the league, so he was still learning. Jury is still out if he can put his team on his back when he faces adversity.

    In the end, Ryan has proven he is a better QB than Henne. Henne is not mobile at all in the pocket and makes too many poor decisions. Ryan has limited those poor decisions to an extent and has taken his team to the playoffs 2/3 yrs as their starting QB.

    Going back to the debate of Ryan over Long, I still take Jake Long. With our OLine (without Jake Long), Ryan would have gotten mauled over the past 3 years and we would probably all be saying that Ryan is a bust. I understand QB is the toughest position to fill but you have to make sure you have at least some offensive line pieces in place before throwing a rookie QB to the wolves. Once you disrupt a young QB's confidence, more often than not, they will never fully recover.
     
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  22. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

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    Can't disregard the posters numbers. Ryan was simply in a better situation from the start and was able to feast on a much easier schedule.

    Now that being said, I don't think most will argue that Henne is better or even comparable to Ryan with regards to overall potential and talent. Ryan has proven he has more talent. Regardless, as I mentioned in a previous post, I'm taking Jake Long all day in hindsight 3 years ago. Ryan would have been a waste of talent behind this offensive line (without Jake Long).
     
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  23. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    Friend PhinsPhan23:
    1) thank you for the support on Ryan vs. Henne as far as talent goes. it should be obvious to everyone, ironically, its not. spin as it as you will, there is no favorable comparison.
    2) in regards to Long: we already had a good first round pick playing left tackle. what we lacked was a competent QB. how many times does a team ( in the process of rebuilding ) in need of a franchise QB, get to pick #1 in the draft? think about it. a team goes nowhere without a franchise QB.
    3) as much as I like Long, not drafting Matt Ryan was the second, but most grievous mistake the Tuna made rebuilding the franchise. he simply made the wrong choice, so much for revisionist history...
     
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  24. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

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    Not drafting Ryan was a mistake if you believe he could have turned into a Franchise QB on this team. Remember, the Falcons had alot more pieces in place when they drafted Ryan (solid O Line, young up and coming WR ready to explode, an acquired RB who would go on to be one of the best backs in the league that year, etc.). Our O Line was anything but solid, Camarillo and Bess were our WR's at the time Henne took over, and our Running game while good in 2008 has been horrendous since.

    I personally believe Ryan would be persecuted by us fans at this point in his career had he been drafted by the Dolphins. With all the mistakes the FO made with the Offensive Line, he would either have been on the sideline more often than not due to injury or he would be the most sacked QB in the league and have ZERO confidence going forward.

    Don't discount how much of an impact Jake Long has had on this team and how much impact a LT can have. I wish we had a franchise QB as much as anyone, but Jake Long was the right pick there based on how bad this team was going into 2008 (1-15 only 1 year earlier).
     
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  25. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    Kool-Aid:
    sour grapes, speculation & sugar-water
     
  26. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Even if Ryan had the success he has had in Atlanta there will be some who persecute him as someone who isn't worth the first pick in the draft. Especially after two horrible playoff performances.

    Despite a lot of people who believe that Ryan is the bees knees, he still has some ways to go before he is a top quarterback in the NFL.
     
  27. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    Friend Dol-Fan Dupree:

    Everybody likes Jake Long. Now, let me ask a question, looking to the future not the past.
    Would you trade straight up Jake Long for Matt Ryan & move Vernon Carey to left tackle tomorrow?
    Think about it. The answer should be as obvious as it is honest & irrefutable

    your answer should end the revisionist conversation on mistakes made & 'should have been's'
     
  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    23rd...I wouldn't. I don't think that Matt Ryan is all that, and I never have. I'd rather stay with what we have. Henne will be fine if he has a semblance of a running game.

    Matt Ryan (and Joe Flacco) both were drafted into far better situations than Henne. The OP laid all that out very well. You have to be blind to simply ignore it.
     
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  29. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    Friend Resnor:
    if that is your honest opinion after thinking things through, than I accept it & applaud your answering a difficult & direct question in a timely fashion.
    my personal thought is: :cupid:love is blind
    having said that
    I'll accept your answer as the end of the revisionist conversation on mistakes made & "should have been's"
    we will know the indisputable truth by the end of the 2011 season
     
  30. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    While I would certainly consider trading Long for Ryan, to say it's honest and irrefutable is being just as blind, IMO.
    First of all, moving an old-beat-up V Carey to Left Tackle to protect Ryan would be an insanely stupid move. Even when he's healthy (which he never is anymore) Carey is a below average LT at this point in his career.

    My preference is to keep Jake Long, and move up in the draft next year to get a good young QB and draft Carey's replacement in the latter rounds.
    We are finally putting really good pieces into place on Oline, WR, RB to go with our very good defense.

    Now, another alternative (fantasy scenario) is to move up to the draft next year to take a LT to go with Ryan if we traded Long. I think you come out slightly ahead in that scenario. better at QB, worse at LT.
     
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  31. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    Friend Ohio Fanatic:
    "Now, another alternative (fantasy scenario) is to move up to the draft next year to take a LT to go with Ryan if we traded Long. I think you come out slightly ahead in that scenario. better at QB, worse at LT."
    I agree. Within the spirit of what was posted, it would be a better alternative.
    having said that
    of course nothing even remotely like that will happen. Ryan is their Franchise QB with nothing but future gains & accolades ahead of him. just used the idea metaphorically (?) to answer a revisionist question.
     
  32. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I can't wait for the day either Henne becomes or we acquire the QB who will play well enough to be judged by our eyes. Meaning, we don't need to throw pages and pages of stats trying desperately to demonstrate that he's as good, or not as bad as some other QB.

    To address the point of this thread - franchise QBs make the players around them look better. Mediocre or poor QBs expose the weaknesses of a team further. Most in the media thought the Falcons were worse off than us prior to the draft and prior to the season starting in 2008. Matt Ryan's early success helped some of their players look not so awful.
     
  33. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    Ryan is their franchise QB, although he's by no means a 1st tier QB. I'd put him at top of the 2nd tier.
    With Henne, I can see him performing at the bottom of what I consider the same 2nd tier (10-15 range), if our draft picks work out like we hope this year and Daboll is a better OCoordinator than Henning.
     
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  34. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't think he's comparing Matt Ryan to Chad Henne. I think he's comparing the environments in which the QBs are surrounded.

    The Atlanta Falcons have a better offense for Matt Ryan. However, it's being dismissed on how much Matt Ryan understands and makes that offense go. Michael Turner is a better player because of Matt Ryan and vice a versa. Same with a lot of those players.

    I think the biggest fault is we are comparing our 2010 version to theirs. I mean for all intents and purposes, last year was really an odd year. I mean everyone on that offense had a down year, which was coupled with a mishandling of play-calling by our OC. I don't mean that as an excuse, but I parlay that with this. Chad Henne played some really nice set of circumstances in 2009. He had the #2 overall running game (I think, or at one point, but it was a dominant ground game), and he played with some of the same, nice parts he did in 2010. The main difference was the addition of Brandon Marshall.

    I think the parts are there to succeed, but at some point the QB needs to be held accountable to making the team better and not the other way around, which is what Matt Ryan does.

    No argument from me that he's in a better environment. They have a winning record the past 3 seasons. That makes everything better.
     
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  35. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well said!
     
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  36. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    You must not be a fan of abstract art.

    Well, let's be fair here though MB, "franchise Qb" is not only a subjective term, but recent history shows that Top 3 draft picks become "franchise Qb's" quickly, otherwise fans had to suffer their growing pains along with them.

    Sometimes I think Dolfans really do believe you can have a 25 td/15 int Qb just by wishing for them, or complaining, or booing, or what have you, truth is development takes time and games are lost in that process.

    Think Lions fans and NFL media would be singing a different tune about Matt Stafford and his injury problems if Shaun Hill had not stepped in and played well?
     
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  37. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    I think you make a GREAT point, its something Ive wondered about for a lolng time but I'll never get a real answer to. We all know Penne led the team to the playoffs in 08 and was viewed as THE leader. Then he loses his job b/c of injury in 2009 and Henne is "anointed" the starter in 2010 w/o Penne having so much as a chance to compete. I think there was a lot of resentment, both from the players and the coaches, and many of them remained loyal to Pennington. Meanwhile, Henne's leadership skills pale in comparison, and while he played well, he didn't play well enough or win enough, to shake Pennington's shadow.
     
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  38. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Did you read any of what he posted? He wasnt comparing Ryan and Henne, he was comparing Ryan's situation in ATL to Henne's situation in MIA. It's really not all that complicated.
     
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  39. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Give em a break KM, and consider the source. They CANT rebut any of what TP posted. And why would they anyway? Ignorance is bliss.
     
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  40. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
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    Jan 27, 2010
    Fixed that for ya. And it's about time for a new sig, no?
     

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