1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Henne vs Matt Ryan; A QB who's been impaired by his team vs one helped by it.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ToddsPhins, May 11, 2011.

  1. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

    206
    104
    0
    Nov 4, 2010
    Hmm, b/c the OP had some pretty good points against this. I know you are talking from your gut and your eyes based on what you see in a QB, but the point of this thread was to question that gut and eyes.

    I believe Ryan is a better QB than Henne regardless of the situation, but I'm also of the belief that Ryan would not have had a chance in hell to be successful on this team without Jake Long.
     
  2. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    Friend PhinPhan23: maybe, maybe not...

    been my experience that when a leader steps up, the team follows.
    the right QB makes a tremendous difference on over-all team production

    would not be an exaggeration to say it is the most important single position on a team
     
  3. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I wonder how Henne's Qb rating and stats compare, for when the team rushes for over 100 as opposed to less than 100. Is the difference as much as with Ryan?
     
    HeyBaldy likes this.
  4. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area
    Friend MrClean:
    knowing full-well the importance of statistics & sundry data in making an argument, I would relay to you what was said to me in a graduate statistics class: a clever mind can argue any point with statistics. you can sum anything to your own end when you control the variables. it is @ best a slippery slope to build a definitive case on, however nicely it may seem to fit your purpose. real life does not necessarily reflect applied subjective statistics.
     
  5. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    IMO, when one looks at something like Ryan or Henne's QB Rating both when their team rushes for 100 yards or doesn't, you are controlling no variables. We don't pull the numbers out of our butt to support in this instance the case of the effect a run game can have on a QB's production. It is all there in black and white.

    I'd challenge anyone to use statistics to prove the productivity of a run game has no effect on a QB's passing numbers. You may find one or two QBs who are still productive with no run game. The few elite guys like Peyton, Brady and Rodgers. But, even with them, I'd bet when they do have a good run game, their passing stats go from productive to off the charts.
     
    HeyBaldy likes this.
  6. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    You must have missed the passing efficiency conversation last season
     
  7. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Or maybe I just forgot. I'm no spring chicken anymore. Could you be so kind as to refresh my memory?
     
    HeyBaldy likes this.
  8. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    it is basically that running isn't important, all you need to win is turnovers and passing efficiency.
     
  9. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

    9,173
    2,398
    113
    Apr 20, 2009
    Tampa Area

    one thing I'm sure of is that there is someone out there that could do exactly that ... if properly motivated. purposeful manipulation is implicit to the very nature of applied statistics & human interactions.


    Friend MrClean:

    1) statistics are calculations & numbers not to be confused with the truth. they can help, as well as hinder the journey to truth.
    2) there are intangibles, immeasurable things that cannot be defined so easily. life isn't that neat, its more complicated & so is football...
    3) competitiveness, chemistry, conditioning, preparation, leadership & luck are but a few elements that enter into the human equation.


    have you ever seen a game won when the statistics indicated a loss? happens all the time.
     
  10. DolfanJake

    DolfanJake Banned

    9,069
    802
    0
    Jan 15, 2010
    West Miami-Dade County
    You can't say that Ryan would have been mauled because you don't know that we would have had a horrible player in place of Long. Our OLine and offensive strategy would probably been very different, and the wildcat may have never been involved, or at least involved a lot less.

    I still think, and will always be convinced that, when given the opportunity to draft a franchise QB you do that if you have a need, and boy did we have a need. Parcells blew that pick, and this is not to say Long is a bad pick, but the need was QB over OLine. You always build around a QB not an OLine, and I think you are seeing the results in both Atlanta and Miami on the difference of that philosophy. Times have changed, and unfortunately for us, Parcells was still stuck in the 1970's & 1980's when OLine was more important than the QB. We can thank Marino, more than anyone else for changing that philosophy throughout the NFL. Too bad our team has never learned that lesson.
     
  11. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    And Indy and NE didn't use 1st rounders on LTs this year...... Wait, never mind.

    Their LTs were good enough to not worry about using a high pick to replace. Miami didn't have that luxury. We sucked at the position; our line sucked as a whole; we needed a GUARANTEED improvement rather than a potential improvement; and we needed a LT who could legitimately protect the QB's blind side while allowing Carey to move to other side.

    Taking a shot at a 2nd round LT would've left us exactly where we were previously--- with a subpar LT who needed to be upgraded. Not to mention, we weren't afforded the vision of knowing exactly who would be available at later picks who ALSO fit our offensive requirements. We wanted a mauler who could do it all, a guy who was also a leader and tough as nails. That is NOT Duane Brown who we would've needed to trade up for. And if we didn't trade up, we would've been left with John Greco in the 3rd round (or overdrafting him in the 2nd). The Rams used a #2 pick on LT Jason Smith the following year, so Greco would've really turned out great for us. <sarcasm>


    Our Oline would've still been crap, and whatever QB was stuck playing behind it would've been battered because of it. Nice try though comparing the LTs of the teams you mentioned with the likes of a rookie Duane Brown & John Greco.


    Without Long, we would've been forced to reach for Ebon Britton in 2009, who Jax drafted as a RT, and who would've also prevented us from taking Vontae Davis. We could've drafted Sebastian Vollmer at the end of round 2, but that would've meant no trading back, hence no Sean Smith or Chris Clemons. Phil Loadholt? RT. William Beatty at LT?--- our QB would've been in the hospital.

    We could've drafted 2 or 3 guys hoping for a LT and not succeed in the process. We could've been stuck entering the 2010 draft STILL needing someone good enough to keep our QB from getting killed. We would've been stuck overdrafting Bryan Bulaga at #12 who went 23rd, and in the process would've missed on Odrick and our starting OLB Misi.

    Bottom line is---- if you get an opportunity to solidify the LT position in a serious way, you take it, especially if the guy is a stud in the ground game while providing tremendous leadership and a killer instinct to boot.
     
    HeyBaldy and MrClean like this.
  12. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    I don't think there's a great difference. Henne was 6-1 when his backs rushed for 100+. Ryan was like 8-0 or 9-1 when his backs did. Only difference is Ryan's backs rush for 100+ more often. Hopefully KB has info to show us the statistical difference.
     
    HeyBaldy and MrClean like this.
  13. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    It's kinda hard to pass efficiently when you can't keep the defense honest w/ your run game. It's also difficult to hold a lead w/ no ground game, see last year vs Detroit. Up 10, 5 minutes to go, with the ball, time to run some clock? Not us, we have our QB throwing into 20 mph winds b/c our RBs can't even make it back to the LOS, and it cost us the game.
     
    MrClean, ToddsPhins and the 23rd like this.
  14. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

    3,415
    1,557
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    When I walk into the Golden Corral, it's usually before 11:30 am.

    The first plate I fill is full of lettuce. Now I've got no issue with the spinach mixture crap but this is fresh cut iceberg lettuce so I stick with it. Then I go straight for the onions. I pile on about six rings of sliced onion. Next up is the diced tomatoes. I dump a heaping helping of them on there. I put pickles (bread and butter) and cucumber slices on the side of the plate. I just do not like them within the mixture. By this time I arrive at the Thousand Island. Yes, it's the worst possible dressing as far as health but I'm at the Golden Corral. I didn't come in here for health. I bypass the croutons because (for some unknown reason) they put the bacon bits down by the sour cream and butter. I try to layer every inch of the thousand island with bacon bits. Then I go back to the croutons. Croutons are a funny substance. You would like to get a piece of one with every stick of the fork but they just crumble. So usually the croutons are only achieved when you start shoveling the salad.

    So I finish this plate full of thing I have created. It should be enough to walk out the door and be satisfied. But this is the Golden Corral. I didn't come in here to be conservative. So I move on to plate number two.

    Plate number two usually begins with Bourbon Street chicken. I usually have my mind on the steak or the fried shrimp or the fried coconut shrimp but I can't seem to pass up the Bourbon Street chicken. I only get a small portion though. These plates are small. I don't want a boat load of Bourbon Street chicken. I just want a taste of it. Soon I find myself standing in front of the coconut shrimp. I've passed on about 8 different vegetables so far before I arrived here. I figure that I can always come back to it. Then I see that guy cooking in the middle. I don't give a crap what he's cooking. It's coming fresh off the grill. I have to get some. It might be steak. It might be baby back ribs. I don't care. I have to get some. By this time I've almost filled this little plate. I've got a small section left and I just can't fill it with another meat. And there it is....... Stuffing! Right beside that stuffing is gravy of my choice (beef or poulty). I never get stuffing at the house because my wife doesn't like it. So I can't pass it up.

    After shoveling down this creation I'm kind of stuffed. But this is the Golden Corral and I didn't come in here to be a punk. It's time for plate number three. Now all those breads look good. They probably taste good too. But bread is filling and I ain't about filling up on bread. So I don't let it distract me. It's onto the circle of joy that is the desert buffet. I don't even know their names but I know it's cake. A cake to delight every sense of taste bud one could have. The selection is far too great too choose just one so I do not choose just one. Most of the time I choose three slices. This last time I chose FOUR! Chocolate, Coconut, Strawberry, Peanut butter...... I had it all!
     
    emocomputerjock and MrClean like this.
  15. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

    206
    104
    0
    Nov 4, 2010
    Based on the way this FO evaluates offensive line talent, I can say we would not have had the right player in place. They would have moved Carey to the Left side b/c he would have been the best option at the time and we would have drafted a 2nd or 3rd round tackle to replace Carey. Remember how much Carey struggled last year on the right side and how many plays he took off? Now move him over to Matt Ryan's blind side and see how it works out.

    Someone else made a really good point around Roethlisberger, Peyton, Flacco, etc. and how good of a team those QB's had going into the situation. Now look at Jay Cutler. How bad was he with a horrendous offensive line in front of him. Here is a QB who potentailly has more overall QB talent than any of the QB's not named Peyton, Rodgers, and Brady and the guy couldn't get off his a$$ b/c their line was so bad.

    The approach this regime has used on the offensive line was horrible and I have no faith looking back that it would have been any better had we drafted Ryan instead of Long, I would say it would be 10 times worse considering it's safe to say Jake Long is a Top 3 (if not the #1) LT in the game and he sure's up the most important position along the line.
     
  16. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

    206
    104
    0
    Nov 4, 2010
    I know you have a point to make, just not quite sure what that is....can you enlighten us?
     
  17. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,123
    5,828
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Huh, and KB just proved that, for Matt Ryan anyway, a running game helps with both passing efficiency and turnovers.
     
  18. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,123
    5,828
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    He's no punk.
     
  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    I didn't agree with it
     
    Two Tacos likes this.
  20. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,123
    5,828
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    I didn't mean to suggest you did.

    Personally, I think it depends on the team and who's running it. That's why all of these arguments about whether defense wins championships, run vs. pass, etc... Are all bunk in a way. It depends on the team, and what the team is trying to do. I like this thread because I think Atlanta and Miami have had similar goals and philosophies when it comes to offence, so the comparison is more valid IMO.
     
  21. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Does that mean you think the much higher QB ratings Ryan has when Atl rushes for 100+ and the better W-L record when they do so, is merely coincidence?
     
    HeyBaldy and fin13 like this.
  22. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,123
    5,828
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    I think he was referring to the conclusion of thread on passing efficiency vs the running game.
     
  23. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    Exactly. I didn't agree that passing efficiency wasn't effected by the running game.
     
    MrClean likes this.
  24. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    1969 buddy, and you counter with one year. Yeah ...

    Vernon Carey, a 1st round draft pick, graded out well at LT. We did not suck at the position. What everone keeps forgetting is that Vernon played well at Left Tackle. We did not need to upgrade that position.

    Sorry you had to waste all that time typing these hypotheticals out because you forget that Vernon Carey played well at LT, and is a 1st round talent, but it is what it is. You don't need elite LT's to win. Good enough, is good enough.
     
  25. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

    15,863
    6,275
    113
    Dec 12, 2007
    Evans, GA
    Great point. We did have a competent LT on the team, not the practice squad turnstile some would have us believe. A LT like Jake is obviously a great asset to have but it doesn't mean a whole lot without a quarterback. A ton of probowls and a wasted career would be about the extent of it. Maybe Chad Henne can step up to the plate and be that QB this season. But if Henne doesn't work out or someone else doesn't come along soon Long over Ryan is absolutely going to be viewed as a mistake in the future. How many NFL GMs or scouts would rate Chad Henne as highly or higher than Matt Ryan? This is purely a guess but I'm thinking not that many. Surely they are all aware that a running game helps a QB look better.
     
  26. JMHPhin

    JMHPhin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    7,684
    3,323
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    Ohio
    I think at this point I just want it resolved. I am a Henne supporter but recognize his uncertainty. My only point is and was that this year qb class was good but not great. There were qbs I like but all were developmental guys not ready to play at a fairly high level. The top guys in teh draft aka Newton and Gabbert played in college spreads and that doesnt historically translate to quick success in the NFL. If Henne fails or we cant get a dcecent upgrade in FA and/or trade, the it is vital to go all in and get Luck next year. The issue this year with all qbs is there wanst a clear ready right now upgrae to henne and teh lockout only compounds the issue. So showing Henne you believe he can do it is somewhat genius even if you dont fully believe it as if you dont think teh options are greater than him then it is probably smarter to make him feel like you believe in him rather than saying we are giving you teh shot by default.
     
  27. JMHPhin

    JMHPhin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    7,684
    3,323
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    Ohio
    2 diff regimes felt diff. Carey played well, Long is dominant. Carey was always being moved anfd replacements searched until he settled at RT. There is a reason why 3 diff staffs never fully committed to Carey at LT, sorry if that doesnt fit in this theory of everyone.

    Also too much hindsight in this debate it is easy now to say Ryan was great but it wasnt like he didnt have concerns, many people brought up consistent issues. Too many people blinded by hate for Henne and by panic desparation. It doesnt get better by wishing it
     
  28. JMHPhin

    JMHPhin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    7,684
    3,323
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    Ohio

    Thats the nature of teh business
     
  29. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    11,881
    4,834
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    People also seem to forget that Atlanta traded back into the first to select a LT for Ryan - Sam Baker. While he hasn't been half the player Long has, he has done well enough. Absolutely no reason we couldn't have made a similar move.
     
  30. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I agree. Ryan wasn't a Manning/Bradford like prospect. In college he threw a lot of interceptions and seemed to take too many unnecessary chances. In his defense, he wasn't considered to have the best supporting cast either.
     
    HeyBaldy, ToddsPhins and JMHPhin like this.
  31. JMHPhin

    JMHPhin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    7,684
    3,323
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    Ohio
    Again hindsight. Too easy to use what you know now to say what they should have done then. Atlanta didnt have a shot at Long can you guarentee they dont take Long #1. You may believe but you dont know.
     
    ToddsPhins and MrClean like this.
  32. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Tarik Glenn was a 1st rounder though. 3x Pro Bowler. The Colts drafted him and Adam Meadows back to back in the 1st and 2nd rounds one year, and they were Manning's bookends for a long time. Manning had them already in place before he was drafted, which aided his early development, as opposed to someone like Matt Stafford, who gets pummeled while the Lions pass on viable LT candidates every year, like Michael Oher, Rodger Saffold, and Anthony Castonzo.
     
    HeyBaldy, ToddsPhins and JMHPhin like this.
  33. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    With the folks who continually berate the Dolphins for not taking Ryan over Jake, 20/20 hindsight is their biggest weapon. As I recall around this forum before the 2008 draft, the only regular member who constantly and vocally called for Ryan BEFORE the draft, was AdamPrez. Others may have felt the same, but before the fact were rather quiet about it. IMO, he is the only one here with a really legit right to complain much.
     
    HeyBaldy and ToddsPhins like this.
  34. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    Gotchya. So Carey was so good that he helped our Oline avoid 83 sacks in the 2 years before Long was drafted?
    The bottom line was---- our Oline sucked as a unit, and it was imperative we came away with a massive upgrade if we wanted to become competitive. We didn't have the risky luxury of being able to leisurely pick and choose how we went about our O-line. We simply couldn't afford to miss on the guy we took. You don't win games if you can't win in the trenches, and the guts of our offense was terrible. Could you imagine what our line would look like if it didn't have Long on it? It would be putrid right now.

    Carey is not a LT; he filled in sufficiently although playing LT did nothing to maximize his play, and he certainly didn't solidify our pass protection all by himself. Drafting Long upgraded our LT & RT spots with one pick. This regime wanted to properly build the team from the inside out rather than tossing a young QB behind a sieve of a line that might've destroyed his career before it has a chance to begin. It certainly wouldn't have been the first time a QB was wasted this way, and it definitely wont be the last.

    QB protection means everything. Did you see how out of their game Brady & Manning looked this year when they had poor protection?
    And sorry--- but Carey is not 1st round talent at LT.
     
    HeyBaldy likes this.
  35. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    IIRC there were actually teams who did in fact rate Henne higher than Ryan coming out, especially after his performances during Senior Bowl week and the Combine.
     
    HeyBaldy likes this.
  36. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    There was some debate about that, and Baker turned out to be better than people anticipated. However, it's also not wise to pass on the top rated guy on your board with the hopes that you'll fill that position later on despite not knowing who will be available.
     
    HeyBaldy likes this.
  37. fin13

    fin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    1,695
    1,237
    113
    May 29, 2009
    Waterloo
    Did you watch Ryan's level of play in the playoffs?
    As soon as they took away his running game he looked very pedestrian very henne like if not worst.
    All this young QBs including Flacco and Sanchez played like crap without a running game, the only time Miami ran the ball effectively was against the Raiders and Henne looked great.
    I think things will be a little different this season if Miami runs the ball effectively
     
    Ohio Fanatic and ToddsPhins like this.
  38. fin13

    fin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    1,695
    1,237
    113
    May 29, 2009
    Waterloo
    I feel bad for Henne young guy and no support from alot of the fan base and coaching.
    You see Sanchez level of play which was crap and the coach backs him up, I saw Marshall and Fasano 2 vets getting all over Henne, when they were part of the offense poor play.
    Henne has what it takes I just hope that Henning and lee didn't turn what was a gunslinger into a *****
     
  39. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I just figured out Henne's QB rating last year both when the team rushed for 100 yards and when they didn't. The results surprised me.
    First off I'll say our record was 6-2 when we gained 100 or more and 1-7 when we didn't.
    As for Henne:
    When we rushed for 100 yards: 57.8 comp pct, 6.2 ypa, 73.66 QB rating 3.2 TD% 3.2 INT%
    When we didn't rush for 100 yds: 65.1 comp pct 7.2 ypa 77.16 QB rating 2.9 TD% 4.5 INT%

    Take from it what you will. I invite anyone to double check my results.
     
    HeyBaldy likes this.
  40. fin13

    fin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    1,695
    1,237
    113
    May 29, 2009
    Waterloo
    Take a look at how many pass attempts,
     

Share This Page