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Strength of Schedule's potential impact on QB performance

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ToddsPhins, May 23, 2011.

  1. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    IMO we need to factor in a team's strength of schedule when comparing or judging QBs.
    I'm calling bulldoodie if anyone believes that Henne's stats & performance wouldn't have looked significantly better while facing the 22nd ranked Strength of Schedule (Matt Ryan), 25th (Josh Freeman), or 32nd (Sam Bradford) rather than Chad's 3rd toughest (and 2nd toughest in 2009), especially if he had a healthy offense, competent OC, and no injured knee. Heck, two of the QBs that fans speak of acquiring, Hasselbeck & Orton, faced the 30th & 21st ranked schedules according to Football Outsiders.


    Josh Freeman
    2010 vs 25th SoS: 95.9 QBR, 61.4% 7.3 avg, 25 TDs, 6 INTs.
    2009 vs 1st SoS: 59.8 QBR, 54.0%, 6.4 avg, 10 TDs, 18 INTs.
    *I watched some of Freeman's 2009 games and he did NOT look like his stats suggested when playing quality teams.

    Matt Ryan
    2010 vs 22nd SoS: 91.0 QBR, 62.5%, 6.5 avg, 28 TDs, 9 INTs.
    2008 vs 20th SoS: 87.7 QBR, 61.1%, 7.9 avg, 16 TDs, 11 INTs.
    2009 vs 6th SoS: 80.9 QBR, 58.3%, 6.5 avg, 22 TDs, 14 INTs.

    Chad Pennington
    2008 vs 29th SoS: 97.4 QBR, 67.4%, 7.7 avg, 19 TDs, 7 INTs.
    2009 vs 2nd SoS: 76.0 QBR, 68.9%, 5.6 avg, 1 TD, 2 INTs.

    Peyton Manning
    2001 vs 4th SoS: 84.1 QBR, 62.7%, 7.6 avg, 26 TDs, 23 INTs. (Manning's worst non-rookie season; ALSO only season vs a top 5 SoS)

    Ben Roethlisberger (Ben's worst season came against his only top 5 SoS. Ben's best 2 seasons came vs his easiest 2 SoS's)
    2009 vs 26th SoS: 100.5 QBR, 66.6%, 8.6 avg, 26 TDs, 12 INTs.
    2007 vs 22nd SoS: 104.1 QBR, 65.3%, 7.8 avg, 32 TDs, 11 INTs.
    2008 vs 4th SoS: 80.1 QBR, 59.9%, 7.0 avg, 17 TDs, 15 INTs.

    Matt Cassel
    2010 vs 28th SoS: 93.0 QBR, 58.2%, 6.9 avg, 27 TDs, 7 INTs.
    2008 vs 28th SoS: 89.4 QBR, 63.4%, 7.2 avg, 21 TDs, 11 INTs.
    2009 vs 10th SoS: 69.9 QBR, 55.0%, 5.9 avg, 16 TDs, 16 INTs.

    Drew Brees (his 1st two season's starting were vs top 7 SoS's)
    2002 vs 5th SoS: 76.9 QBR, 60.8%, 6.2 avg, 17 TDs, 16 INTs.
    2003 vs 7th SoS: 67.5 QBR, 57.6%, 5.9 avg, 11 TDs, 15 INTs.

    Philip Rivers (his worst season came during the only time he did NOT face a 21st or easier SoS)
    2007: 82.4 QBR, 60.2%, 6.9 avg, 21 TDs, 15 INTs.

    Chad Henne (possibly THE TOUGHEST SoS of any QB in his first 2 years starting)
    2010 vs #3 SoS: 75.4 QBR, 61.4%, 6.7 avg, 15 TDs, 18 INTs.
    2009 vs #2 SoS: 75.2 QBR, 60.8%, 6.4 avg, 12 TDs, 14 INTs.

    Sam Bradford (1st year starting)
    2010 vs 32nd SoS: 76.5 QBR, 60%, 6.0 avg, 18 TDs, 15 INTs.

    Is there much difference between Henne's first year starting compared to Bradford's besides their Strength of Schedule being polar opposites and Sam not being taken out for WC plays? What kind of 2nd year jump would you expect Bradford to make if he faces the 3rd toughest SoS rather than the 32nd he was used to now that teams have more film on him? It's no surprise to me that Sanchez had a disappointing 2nd season after facing the 5th toughest SoS.
     
  2. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Exactly TP, this yr, we are primed to do much better then in 09 and 10, the schedule is not as strong as it was those yrs, the Defense is young and up and coming and ST's are rarely poor in back to back seasons, that can happen but it is quite rare as most coaches will simply throw a couple of resources at the unit so they do not look like idiots the following season.

    For example the ST was 27th in 08, 9th, in 09, 29th in 10, this should be a bounce back yr for that unit.

    Those factors, SOS, D having 3rd yr starters on it, and ST improving is however one of the reasons why I advocate a Vet Qb be brought in to hopefully unseat Chad Henne, this is the yr to make hay and it HAS to be made and Henne has to many ? marks for my tastes.

    The only caution I'd bring up is Dallas and SD are also primed for bounce back yrs, they may have drafted Top 15 or whatever, but there is still loads of talent on both teams that skews the SOS imho.
     
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  3. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    The true SOS won't be known until the season is finished in my opinion. The SOS's that I used came after the season was played.

    I think we can have a solid year, so I definitely want someone in here capable of challenging Henne or at least giving us a chance to make a playoff run if Henne is injured.
     
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  4. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    Division Points allowed

    AFC North #1 1229 PA
    NFC North #2 1243 PA
    NFC South #3 1321 PA
    AFC East #4 1375 PA
    AFC West #5 1490 PA
    NFC West #6 1515 PA
    NFC East #7 1537 PA
    AFC South #8 1573 PA

    With those stats Phins played
    4 Games against the #1 D (Pitt,Rav,Brown,Cinci)
    4 games against the #2 D (Bears,Viks,GB,Lions)
    6 games in division #4 D
    1 game against #6 D (oak)
    1 game against #8 D (Tenn)

    That alone shows how brutal the schedule last season really was now that its over.
    If it wasn't for Buffalo giving up 455 points our div would have been ranked much higher.
     
  5. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    and one reason Buffalo gave up so many points is because they faced the #1 toughest Strength of Schedule.
     
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  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Which is a glimpse at how tough the sledding has been, notice when he played weaker Defenses like the Raiders and Titans he did quite well, and the Bills 2nd game...well I put that on the gameplan, how are you going to have Henne throw the ball 45 times vs one of the worst run defenses in the NFL?

    That is a mystery to me.
     
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  7. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    There are solid reasons for optimism this yr with or without Henne at Qb, but Hennezilla from 2010 just sucks all of the air out of the conversation.

    If one wants some real cause for optimism, the Raiders and KC had epic turnaround seasons, which as we learned from 2009 means a return to the mean the following yr, as in 3 to 4 more losses at least, both are on the schedule.
     
  8. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    Sorry right div wrong team i corrected it from den to Oak.
     
  9. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I disagree. I think SOS isn't an accurate showing of a QB's difficulty at all. A more accurate assessment would be the passing defenses he played against. That's like putting rushing stats up for MJD. They're heavily skewed using your method because the Colts are always one of the winningest teams, but the run defense is pathetic.

    I'm sure there are better examples involving good teams with poor or middle of the road passing defenses, but the Colts and their run defense is the first thing that came to mind.
     
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  10. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    :lol:

    Does it have to do with the same reason we threw fades to Hartline instead of Marshall?
     
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  11. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Hartline does fairly well with them though TP, cannot bag on cornball for his skills doing that job, but then again, why they are not tossed to Marshall AS WELL AS cornball is beyond me, sometimes I think Henning and Lee just got to cute by half.
     
  12. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    The numbers sure seem to show a potential correlation.

    Are you forgetting that opposing offenses do things like score points?
    It's not only about the caliber of defense you play; it's also about the team in general.
    If a QB is playing a team whose offense can score points, that can impact a QB's play as much a good defense.

    By your theory, a QB should be successful against Indy & Manning if the Colt's defense is mediocre; I don't see it that way. Manning can put a lot of pressure on an opposing offense. Any strong overall team can put extra pressure on an QB to succeed. Great teams can put opposing QBs in a hole.
     
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  13. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I don't recall making any type of thread regarding running back performance based on strength of schedule.

    Running back stats and QB stats aren't entirely related....... and using a full 16 game strength of schedule is completely different than looking at just one isolated game like you're referring to.


    Would you like to be the person responsible for breaking down an entire season's worth of film, snap by snap, to figure out each team's weighted defensive strength of schedule in order to see its affect on QB performance? (because I'm not sure that stat even exists). It's much more complicated than saying "Team X ranked 6th in pts/game allowed so they're the 6th best defense.

    Side note: Do you know how many times Indy ranked much higher defensively than their performance would indicate? How about the Saints' defense behind their high powered offense? Hence your basis for analysis would be skewed, which is why IMO it's more accurate to use strength of schedule than simple, non-weighted defensive stats.
     
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  14. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't disagree that an opposing offense can't put some added pressure on a QB, an offense, or an offensive coordinator's game plan. But, if you're using a criteria to assess Chad Henne's play against top notch competition, I think it's a much fairer argument to take the statistics of teams and the quality of their passing defense or total defense in comparison to their record. I don't think it's indicative of the difficult he faced last year at all. That is my opinion.

    BTW, he faced some difficult competition relative to the defenses, particularly passing defenses last year.
     
  15. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You're barking up the wrong tree here, Todd. I wasn't trying to turn this into a RB debate and how that correlates to a QB's difficulty. Merely, I was trying to suggest that a much fairer assessment of a QB's degree of difficulty would be to research the exact competition he is playing against. There are teams that don't represent themselves well with win percentage, but do in defense. A great example is the Buffalo Bills. A terrible team in their own right, but they do have a solid facet to their game, passing defense. That would give credence to the reason behind Chad Henne struggling both times against them. The fact they were a bad team would have nothing to do, IMO, on why Chad Henne SHOULD have succeeded against them. They were tough in that area. I think you do injustice to those teams that are solid in that area with bad records we faced and the inverse--teams with solid records that had terrible pass defenses. Another great example would be the NE Patriots. Whether the team is down 35 or down 7, that's a defense that for all intents and purposes would suggest we could take advantage of and have the ability to beat them. Henne's first matchup indicated as such without the few mis-reads and tough INT's.

    So again, poor/mediocre analogy aside, a much fairer assessment would be to analyze the defenses in which Henne played against. That is the direct contributor to poor stats, not the teams he played against, IMO. That's more of a direct correlation to why we as a team finished at 7-9.
     
  16. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I meant absolutely no disrespect. So, I'm not understand the defensive tone. Or maybe I'm just mis-reading this?
     
  17. FinsAreLife

    FinsAreLife Well-Known Member

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    I'm really thinking we're going to see a good year out of Henne.
     
  18. SCall13

    SCall13 ThePhins QB


    In short, GREAT post!
     
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  19. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    What is Henne's effect on the strength of schedule???
     
  20. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think a sufficient correlation would be to match the pass defense rankings (as shown on NFL.com or any other site) to the team's Miami played against. For example, Green Bay had the #3 ranked pass defense. I think it's a fair assessment to say Chad Henne played against one of the toughest pass defenses in the NFL. The same can be said for New England, they had the #28 (I don't know they numbers because I haven't looked), so Chad Henne faced one of the easier pass defenses.

    Say what you will about scoring and wins, because I'm understanding that because the Patriots scored a ton and got ahead they played basic pass coverages at times. However, that doesn't take away the fact. If they're doing that, it makes them an easy pass defense to throw on.
     
  21. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    To be fair, great teams will typically have good to great defenses, just as weak teams will typically have poor to average defenses. Therefore, IMO using "strength of schedule" as a parameter is more encompassing than using "defense" alone b/c good-great teams should have either a quality defense OR outstanding offense (and/or special teams) capable of putting pressure on an opposing QB...... or have both..... or all 3.

    The Strength of schedule stat is also weighted and created from extensive analysis, making it more precise & reliable than simply looking at the defensive rankings based on yards or points allowed.

    Don't forget, fans aren't just measuring Henne's stats vs other young QBs; they're also looking at wins and losses. We both know it's easier to be successful and post a winning season against an easier strength of schedule.
     
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  22. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    There's no defensive tone. I'm merely stating that I don't believe there exists any sort of weighted "defensive strength of schedule" based on in depth, play by play analysis to where we could accurately use defense as a showing. That's why I said, if you'd like to break this down defensively in the same manner that Football Outsiders breaks down strength of schedule, then it could prove to be an outstanding measuring or comparing tool. However, since this analysis doesn't exist, I feel it's more pertinent to use SOS.
     
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  23. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Here's where we are getting a little ridiculous, IMO. In no way, am I trying to say Chad Henne had it easy. Matter of faculty, you'd find using the research that I suggested was more telling, you'd see Chad Henne had a very difficult stretch last year facing team's who had very good pass defenses. More so than 2009 and Chad Pennington in 2008. You're trying to turn this into a anti-Henne vs. pro-Henne debate and I'm not going there. I've been there ad nauseum.

    All I suggested is that a more relevant stat would be to look at the defenses he played against. That is the most telling and direct thing judging Chad Henne's degree of difficulty IMO.

    What is this extensive analysis done to judge SOS? It's a formula used by computing an entire team's W/L record.

    It's difficult for me to say Chad Henne had a harder time passing against the New England Patriots than he did the Buffalo Bills because the Patriots were a better team. In fact, the opposite is true as he struggled mightily against Buffalo and rightfully so, they were a flat out better passing defense shown by the statistics.

    I agree with the basis of your argument. Chad Henne had a difficult schedule. It would be difficult for any QB to show off great statistics against the gauntlet of pass defenses he ran up against. I just don't agree with the relevancy of SOS. Is it relevant? Yes. Is there more correlation than pass defense statistics? I don't agree there.
     
  24. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I agree with much of this; however I disagree with the NE assessment. Henne didn't completely fall apart until the game got out of hand, which had less to do with the Pat's defense than it did their special teams. So what could've turned into a good game for Henne ended up turning to garbage b/c NE is a great team overall that put Chad into a major hole by scoring 21 points off special teams in 16 minutes.

    I think there will be instances that contradict the numbers (like your Buffalo example); however, in the grand scheme of things, IMO a 16 game season is enough of a sample size to allow SOS to carry some weight.
     
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  25. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    considering each of our opponent play 16 games (and this is a weighted stat), I doubt very much effect at all.
     
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  26. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I agree with this..... but it's doesn't paint an entirely accurate picture b/c these numbers aren't weighted. Case in point: Fans thought our offense was good in 2008. In reality it was an average offense that appeared good b/c it played the 29th ranked SOS consisting of the worst defenses in the NFL. Our defense ranked 9th in pts/game allowed; however, when factoring in our level of competition, our weighted rank was significantly worse. That's why I'm not a fan of using regular defensive rankings (ala NFL.com) as a measuring stick. It's simpleness leaves it flawed IMO.
     
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  27. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I'm not trying to turn it into anything, and I'm not disagreeing with your use of defensive stats correlating Henne's lack of success. That works fine for this season, and it's effective IMO. The only problem I have with it in this context is it doesn't allow me to compare Henne to other QBs very easily. However, I CAN easily compare QBs based on their strength of schedule b/c that MASSIVE amount of number crunching and play analysis has already been conducted regarding SOS. In an hour, I could probably look up and write down 10-20 QB comparisons based on SOS.

    It would take me a year to compare Henne to the QBs I listed in the OP b/c defensive stats of a similarly complex nature don't exist that I'm aware of. I'd essentially have to create every team's "weighted opposing defense's strength of schedule" over the past 12 years before I could even compare a QBs.
     
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  28. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    I'm cautiously optimistic. If Pouncey and Thomas pan out like we hope and play like rookie studs and Gates provides the occasional boost either in chunk yardage and returns for better field position, then Henne will be 12-15 range, IMO.
     
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  29. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I could see that, and I'd be happy with that, all things considered.
     
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  30. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well the way I see it, "if" Henne is simply a "net neutral" as in 50-50 TD to Int ratio, we will need some one else to produce Td's and to me, that means DTrain, cannot see any way around that and a successful season, it may not be DTrain alone, but the running game will have to show up big in that situation.

    Would be nice if ST could also generate field position out past the 30 as well.
     
  31. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    As for SOS and Henne, keep in mind 4 games vs the Pats and Jest, 25% of the schedule, that leads to tougher sledding in itself.
     
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  32. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Patriots defense has been grossly overrated for years now. However, for a young guy like Henne, I'm sure some of Belicheck's schemes can be very confusing at times.
     
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  33. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    50/50 is good enough if the Miami Dolphins are winning football games. I really had no issue with Henne's play in the first two games so long as they won. I'm completely content with the ground and pound, play defense style that Sparano loves. I just love winning and playing meaningful football games in December, which we've been fortunate to be in that position all 3 years he's coached the team.

    I'd love to see Henne be lights out, but more importantly, I don't want anymore implosions in December. I want him to get better as the season wears on, as the game wears on. I want him to experience the playoffs. All things this team and he are very capable of.

    I mean for all the flack I receive as being regarded as "anti-Henne", my expectations aren't crazy high. I just want a leader who finds ways to lead his team to wins.
     
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